module 1 power point presentation

Module 1

Introduction to Climate Change Science

One UN Training Service Platform

on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn

1



Learning Objectives

1. Explain the basic concepts of climate change

science

2. Identify the anthropogenic drivers of

climate change

4. Analyze different climate change scenarios and their

implications

3. Explain observed and projected trends in the

climate

By the end of the module

participants will be able to:

Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

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OVERVIEW

Section 1

Introduction to Climate Change Science

Section 2

Anthropogenic Drivers of

Climate Change

Section 3

Observed Trends and Impacts of

Climate Change

Section 4

Projected Trends and Impacts of

Climate Change

Section 5

Sources of Scientific Data

Overview


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Introduction to Climate

Change ScienceSection 1


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What Is Climate?

Weather

“What is happening in the

atmosphere at any given time”

Climate

“Average weather over longer time

frames”

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Source: World Meteorological Organization

5

http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/understanding_climate.php



Complexity of the Global Climate System


Source: IPCC 2007, p96. Further information: WMO

Website

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http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-1-2-figure-1.html




What Is the Greenhouse Effect?


Source: IPCC 2007. Further info: WMO Website

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http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-1-3.html




NASA Video on the Greenhouse Effect

URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzCA60WnoMk


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Video: Understand how water vapor, carbon

dioxide, and other gases cause the Earth’s

greenhouse effect

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzCA60WnoMk






Factors Shaping the Climate –“Climate Forcings”


Source: NOAAA National Climatic Data Center

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/gw-forcing.html



Natural Climate Fluctuations –Example of El Niño and La Niña


Source: NOAA. Further information: WMO Website

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http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/can-we-blame-el-ni%C3%B1o

http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/significant_natural_climate_fluctuations.php



Climate Change and Global Warming

Global Warming

Refers to the overall warming of the planet,

based on average temperature over the

entire surface of the Earth

Climate Change

Refers to changes in climate characteristics, including temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind,

and severe weather events over long term

periods


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Further information: WMO Website

http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/causes_of_climate_change.php



Observed Change in Surface Temperature (1901–2012)

Source:

Source: IPCC 2013, p4

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Tools to Predict and Project Changes in the Climate

• A climate prediction or climate “forecast” is an attempt to produce an estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future.

Climate Prediction

• Emissions scenarios describe future releases to the atmosphere of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other pollutants and, along with information on land use and land cover, provide inputs to climate models.

Emissions Scenario

• A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for some of its known properties.

Climate Model

• A climate projection is the simulated response of the climate system to a scenario of future emission or concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, generally derived using climate models.

Climate Projection


Source: IPCC 2013 and IPCC Website. Further info: WMO Website

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http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_AnnexIII.pdf

http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/scenario_background.html

http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/climate_models.php



Projected Change in Average Surface Temperature


Scenario RCP 8.5Scenario RCP 2.6


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Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100



Climate Change Has an Impact on:

• Biodiversity, carbon storage, habitats, …

Ecosystems

• Agriculture, fresh water, health, …

Human systems

• Transport, buildings, lifestyle, …Urban systems

• Energy, manufacturing, natural capital industries, …

Economic systems

• Equity, migration, peace and conflict, …

Social systems


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Climate Change Science Allows Us to:

Understand how and why the climate is changing

Assess how humans are influencing the climate

Project how the climate may change in the future

Support policy/decision-making and changes in behaviors


Source: National Science Foundation

Photo Credit: Niwot Ridge lter site/John W. Marr

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http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_images.jsp?cntn_id=118574&org=NSF



Why is Climate Change Science Important?

Sound weather data and forecasts

important for:

Short-term planning

Emergency response

Climate models help to forecast long

term climate scenarios

Important input for vulnerability assessments and

adaptation planning

Fosters climate resilient development and avoids mal-

adaption


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History of Climate Change Science

• Argument raised that the temperature of the Earth can be augmented by the interposition of the atmosphere

1824

• Indication that CO2 and H2O can cause changes in the climate

1861

• First proposal of the idea of a man-made greenhouse effect

1895

• Proof that doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in an increase in the mean global temperature of 2°C

1938

• Start of interdisciplinary field of carbon cycle science1950s

• The high-accuracy measurements of atmospheric CO2

concentration1958

• Other greenhouse gases widely recognised1970s

• The first World Climate Conference in Geneva1979

• Establishment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

1988

• The first IPCC report1990


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Further information: BBC

Website

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/science-environment-15874560



Anthropogenic Drivers of

Climate ChangeSection 2


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IPCC Video on the Human Influence on the Climate System

URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yiTZm0y1YA&feature=youtu.be

Video: The video summarizes the main findings

of the 2013 IPCC Report on the physical science

basis of climate change.

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yiTZm0y1YA&feature=youtu.be





Overview of Greenhouse Gases Regulated under the Kyoto Protocol

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Greenhouse Gas Global Warming

Potential (GWP) (over

100 years)

% of Total Anthropogenic

GHG Emissions (2010)

Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1 76%

Methane (CH4) 25 16%

Nitrous oxide (N2O) 298 6%

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) 124-14,800 < 2%

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) 7,390-12,200 < 2%

Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) 22,800 < 2%

Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) 17,200 < 2%

Source: Reproduced from IPCC 2007 and UNEP 2012




Important Greenhouse Gases: Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Most important greenhouse gas

(contributes ~64% to total radiative

forcing by long-lived GHGs)

Half of CO2 emitted by human activities

is being absorbed in the biosphere and

in the oceans

Rest remains in the atmosphere for

hundreds to thousands of years

Source: WMO 2013

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CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere and Annual Growth Rates

Source: WMO 2013

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Since 1750 CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 40%.



Important Greenhouse Gases: Methane (CH4)

Second most significant greenhouse

gas (contributes ~18% to total

radiative forcing by long-lived

GHGs)

Approximately 40% of methane is

emitted into the atmosphere by

natural sources

About 60% comes from human

activities

Stays in the atmosphere for

approximately 12 years

24


Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013



CH4 Concentration in the Atmosphere and Annual Growth Rates25


Source: WMO 2013

Since 1750 CH4 concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 150%.



In Focus: The Carbon Cycle

Source: UNEP


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http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/carbon-cycle_9d44



Important Greenhouse Gases: Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

The third most significant

greenhouse gas (contributes ~6% to

total radiative forcing by long-lived

GHGs)

Stays in the atmosphere for

approximately 114 years

Nitrous oxide is emitted into the

atmosphere from both natural (about

60%) and anthropogenic sources

(approximately 40%)

27


Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013



N2O Concentration in the Atmosphere and Annual Growth Rates28


Source: WMO 2013

Since 1750 N2O concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 20%.



Important Greenhouse Gases: Fluorinated Gases

Global warming effect up to 23,000

times greater than carbon dioxide

Stay in the atmosphere up to 50,000

years

Three main groups:

hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),

perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur

hexafluoride (SF6)

Mainly developed as substitutes for

ozone-depleting substances

29


Source: IPCC 2007. Further info

EPA, EC

http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/fgases.html

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/f-gas



Greenhouse Gases Controlled by the Montreal Protocol

Montreal Protocol aimed to

phase out substances that

deplete the ozone layer

Substances regulated under the

Montreal Protocol are also

powerful greenhouse gases

For example,

chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

contribute ~12% to radiative

forcing by long-lived GHGs

30


Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013. Further info: NOAA

Website

Source: EPA

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/hats/publictn/elkins/cfcs.html

http://www.epa.gov/ozone/intpol/



Concentration of SF6 and Halocarbons in the Atmosphere

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Source: WMO 2013



It is extremely likely that more than 50%

of the warming since 1951 is due to

the increase in greenhouse gases

and other anthropogenic

forcings together.

Human Influence on the Climate System

Source: IPCC 2013. Further info: WMO website

32


http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/unfccc/cop19/cop19_pres_plattner.pdf

http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/causes_of_climate_change.php



Observed Trends and

Impacts of Climate ChangeSection 3


33



Observed Surface Temperature Anomaly (1850-2012)


Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change

34

Globally averaged land and ocean surface temperature

Each of the last three decades has been successively

warmer at the Earth’s surface than

any preceding decade since 1850.



Observed Change in Annual Precipitation Over Land


Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

35



Observed Ocean Warming (1950-2010)


Change


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More than 60% of the net energy increase in the

climate system is stored in the upper ocean (period 1971-

2010).



Observed Ocean Acidification


Change


37



Observed Sea Level Rise (1900 to 2010)


Change


38

Over the period 1901 to 2010,

global mean sea level rose by

0.19m.



Observed Decrease in Arctic Sea Ice Extent (1900-2010)


Change


39



Observed Changes in Physical and Biological Systems


Change

40

Source: UNEP 2009, p13



In Focus: Is Climate Change to Blame for Extreme Weather Events?

Source: UNEP

2009, p12.

Further info:

WMO Website


Change

41

Year

Nu

mbe

r of

Even

ts

http://www.wmo.int/pages/publications/bulletin_en/archive/61_2_en/61_2_global_en.html



Projected Trends and

Impacts of Climate ChangeSection 4


42



In Focus: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

43

Set of four new scenarios defined by the scientific

community for the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report.

Four RCPs include:

one mitigation scenario leading to a very low forcing

level (RCP2.6),

two stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6), and

one scenario with very high greenhouse gas

emissions (RCP8.5).

RCPs represent a range of 21st century climate

policies.



Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to reach 4°C if no action is

taken.

Projected Change in Average Surface Temperature

So

urc

e: IP

CC

20

13, p

19


Change

44



Projected Change in Average Precipitation




Change

45

Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100



Temperature and Precipitation Projections for the 21st Century

URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFqO3_2dYxA

Video: This NASA video shows how temperature and precipitation patterns could change throughout the 21st century.

Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change

46

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFqO3_2dYxA






Projected Change in Ocean Surface pH




Change

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Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100



Projected Sea Level Rise



Change

48

Global mean sea level will continue to

rise during the 21st century.



Projected Northern Hemisphere September Sea Ice Extent




Change

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Average 2081-2100



Projected Impacts of Climate Changein Africa



50



Projected Impacts of Climate Changein Asia


Change

51

Source: UNEP

2009, p34



Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Latin America


52

Source: UNEP

2009, p37



Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Small Islands

Sea level rise exacerbating

inundation, storm surge,

erosion and other coastal

hazards



53

Reduced freshwater

resources

Invasion by non-native

species

Effects on food and income

security



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“Carbon Crossroads”

Source: Cambridge

University 2013, p 14


Change



Global Warming by 2100 and Beyond: A Function of Cumulative CO2 Emissions


Change

55

Limiting climate

change will require

substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse

gas emissions.




Sources of Scientific DataSection 5


56



The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Leading body for the assessment of climate change

Established in 1988 by UNEP and WMO

Assesses relevant scientific, technical

and socio-economic information

Does not conduct any research itself

Thousands of scientists from all

over the world contribute to its work

Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data

57

http://www.ipcc.ch/



Important Reports Published by the IPCC

Assessm

en

t R

epo

rts • First

assessment report (FAR)

• Second assessment report (SAR)

• Third assessment report (TAR)

• Fourth assessment report (AR4)

• Fifth assessment report (AR5)

Specia

l R

epo

rts o

n: • Renewable

energy sources

• Extreme events and disasters

• Emission scenarios

• Aviation

• Carbon capture and storage

Me

tho

do

log

y R

ep

ort

s • Guidance for national greenhouse gas inventories

• Guidance for assessing impacts of climate change

• Land use, land-use change and forestry

Technic

al P

ape

rs • Climate change and water

• Implications of proposed CO2

emissions limitations

• Technologies, policies and measures for mitigating climate change

58


http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml

http://www.ipcc.ch/activities/activities.shtml

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_technical_papers.shtml



World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – Global Climate Programmes

59


World Climate Programme (WCP)

World Climate Research Programme

Global Climate Observing System

World Climate Services Programme

Programme of Research on Climate Change

Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation

Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme

(AREP)

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

Advisory Body: Commission for Climatology (CCI)

http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/overview.html

http://www.gfcs-climate.org/

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/index_en.php



In Focus: Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

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URL: http://www.gfcs-climate.org/content/about-gfcs


http://www.gfcs-climate.org/content/about-gfcs





WMO Global Atmosphere Watch: Measurement Stations Worldwide

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http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/gaw_home_en.html



WMO Regional Climate Centers and Outlook Forums

62


WMO Regional

Climate Centres

(RCCs)

WMO Regional

Climate Outlook

Forums (RCOFs)

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/RCCs.html

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/outlooks/climate_forecasts.html



National Climate Data

National

Meteorological and

Hydrological Services

(NMHS)

Collect and manage

national climate data

to help with

forecasting and

predictions

Norfolk Island Meterological Office,

Source: Australian Government: Bureau of

Meteorology

63


http://www.wmo.int/pages/members/members_en.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cdo/about/sites.shtml



Annex Additional Resources


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Module Summary

65

Additional Resources

Weather and climate are the results of complex interactions

between anthropogenic and natural factors.

Evidence of global climate change include higher average

temperatures, changes in precipitation, ocean warming, ocean

acidification, sea level rise, decreasing sea ice, and changes in

physical and biological systems.

Observed climate change can be linked with the increase of

greenhouse gase concentrations in the atmosphere since the

industrial revolution.

Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century

is likely to reach 4°C if no drastic mitigation actions are taken.

Various sources of climate data exist that can support planning for

climate change.



Useful Links

IPCC WebsiteWMO Climate

Pages

Global Framework For Climate

Services (GFCs)

World Climate Programme (WCP)

World Bank Climate Change

Knowledge Portal

NASA Global Climate Change

ESA Climate Change Initiative

NCAR Community Data Portal

Max Planck: The Atmosphere in the

Earth System

The Guardian Climate Change

Pages

The National Geographic -

Global WarmingUN CC:Learn


66

http://www.ipcc.ch/

http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/index_en.php

http://www.gfcs-climate.org/

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/

http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm

http://climate.nasa.gov/

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Space_for_our_climate/ESA_s_Climate_Change_Initiative_CCI

http://cdp.ucar.edu/

http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/the-atmosphere-in-the-earth-system.html

http://www.theguardian.com/science/scienceofclimatechange

http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/

http://www.uncclearn.org/



Recommended Readings

Cambridge University (2013). Climate Change: Action, Trends and

Implications for Business

IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, The Physcial Science Basis -

Summary for Policymakers

UNEP (2009). Climate Change Science Compendium

UNEP (2009). Climate in Peril, A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC

Reports

WMO (2013). The Global Climate 2001–2010, A Decade of Climate

Extremes


67

http://www.google.ch/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDwQFjAB&url=http://www.cpsl.cam.ac.uk/~/media/Files/Resources/IPCC/IPCC_Climate_Change_Action_Trends_and_Implications _for_Business_WG1_professional_print_version.ashx&ei=yE36Uo_TE4altAacwIDAAg&usg=AFQjCNF6ERhXbqhFAoaD5aFqSP7dvYOqxQ&sig2=9u62sEbU7mnQDM5rE6pM-g&bvm=bv.61190604,d.Yms

http://www.uncclearn.org/working_group_i_contribution_ipcc_fifth_assessment

http://www.uncclearn.org/climate_change_science_compendium_2009

http://www.uncclearn.org/climate_peril_popular_guide_latest_ipcc_reports

http://www.uncclearn.org/global_climate_2001_2010_decade_climate_extremes



Main References

IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007 - Synthesis Report

IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, The Physcial Science Basis -

Summary for Policymakers

UNEP (2009). Climate in Peril, A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC

Reports

UNEP (2012). The Emissions Gap Report 2012

WMO (2012): Greenhouse Gas Bulletin

WMO (2009). A History of Climate Activities

WMO Website: Climate


68

http://www.uncclearn.org/climate_change_2007_synthesis_report

http://www.uncclearn.org/working_group_i_contribution_ipcc_fifth_assessment

http://www.uncclearn.org/climate_peril_popular_guide_latest_ipcc_reports

http://www.uncclearn.org/emissions_gap_report_2012

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/documents/GHG_Bulletin_No.8_en.pdf

http://www.wmo.int/pages/publications/bulletin_en/archive/58_3_en/documents/58_3_zillman_en.pdf

http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/index_en.php

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