module 1b - climate change impacts 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic EngineeringClimate Change Impacts

10/7/2010

© University of Alaska Anchorage 1

Climate Change Impacts on Cold Regions Infrastructure Climate Change Impacts on Cold Regions Infrastructure

Orson P Smith PE Ph DOrson P. Smith, PE, Ph.D.

School of Engineering

IntroductionIntroduction

University of Alaska Anchorage October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering Climate Change & Infrastructure 2


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IPCC ReportIPCC Report

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was convened in g g ( ),1988 by UN Environmental Program and the World Meteorological Organization

to assess scientific and socio-economic information relevant to climate change,

to estimate potential climate change impacts and

to suggest options for mitigation and adaptation.

The IPCC has completed four major reports, as well as various special reports and technical papers. p p

For more information: http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/index.html

UAA School of Engineering October 2010

Fundamentals of Arctic Engineering Module 1b 3

Arctic Climate Impact AssessmentArctic Climate Impact Assessment

A project of the Arctic Council and the A project of the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee

results released November 2004

http://www.acia.uaf.edu/




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State of Alaska EffortsState of Alaska Efforts

Joint Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission Joint Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission report published 2008: http://www.housemajority.org/coms/cli/cli_finalreport_20080301.pdf

The Climate Change Sub-Cabinet, created in 2007, advises Governor on Alaska climate change strategy

working group reports: http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/g g p p p g g



Average Global Temperature TrendAverage Global Temperature Trend


http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/



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Extreme Warming in the Far NorthExtreme Warming in the Far North



http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise

Figures from EPA website:

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/

Fundamentals of Arctic EngineeringModule 1b 8



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Spatial variability is importantSpatial variability is important

Permafrost changes

Thaw subsidence

Increased flux of sediments into

Permafrost

Chf

Cmf

Clf

Dhf

Dmf

Dlf

Dhr

Dlr

Shf

Smf

Slf

Shr

Slr

Ihf

Imf

Ilf

Chr

Clr

Continuous(90 - 100%)Continuous(90 - 100%)Continuous(90 - 100%)

Discontinuous(50 - 90%)

Sporadic(10 - 50%)

IsolatedP t h

Extract of Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrostand

Ground Ice Conditions1997

Source DataU.S. Geological Survey

International Permafrost Association



steams and the coastal ocean

Ilf

Ihr

Ilr

glacier

ocean/Inland seas

land

Subsea

sea-ice edge limit

subsea permafrost l imit

treel ine

Patches(0 - 10%)

500 0 500

Kilometers

About 90 000 Alaskans ###

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Alaska Community and Highway Permafrost Exposure

Permafrost foundations at riskPermafrost foundations at risk

About 90,000 Alaskans live in permafrost areas

21 % of Alaska’s road miles are on continuous permafrost

57 % road miles are on

500 0 500

Kilometers#

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Source DataU.S. Geological Survey

International Permafrost Associationand

Alaska Department of Natural Resources GIS Database

Summary of Alaska Highways Susceptible to PermafrostSuseptible Roads



57 % road miles are on discontinuous permafrost

Permafrost Extent Road Distance (km)

Continuous (90 - 100%) 734

Discontinuous (50 - 90%) 1950

Sporadic (10 - 50%) 307

Less than 10% 452

Permafrost Extent Total Communities Population

Continuous (90 - 100%) 87 40811Discontinuous (50 - 90%) 79 47140Sporadic (10 - 50%) 26 5235Less than 10% 129 396821

Summary of Alaska Communities Susceptible to Permafrost

Cartographic Illustration:Wm. J. Lee

Continuous (90 - 100%)

Discontinuous (50 - 90%)

Sporadic (10 - 50%)

Less than 10%

Suseptible Communities

Continuous (90 - 100%)#

Discontinuous ( 50 - 90%)#

Less than 10%#

Sporadic ( 10 - 50%)#

GEOMATICS


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Melting glaciers

Changes in Terrestrial ConditionsChanges in Terrestrial Conditions

Thawing permafrost At higher latitudes and

elevationsMore snow accumulationMore avalanches

At lower latitudes and elevations

Avalanche near Cordova,



elevationsLess snowMore winter rainMore irregular streamflow

Alaska

Changes in StreamflowChanges in Streamflow

More rainfall More rainfallIncreased runoff

Increased flooding

Thawing permafrost banks

Accelerated erosionIce Jam



High sediment loads

Repeated breakups

More ice jams

Occurrences

by Drainage Basin


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Alaska roadway concernsAlaska roadway concerns

More freeze-thaw cycles More freeze-thaw cyclesMore frost heave, differential settlement, and cracking

Asphalt redesign and replacement

Embankment erosion i



increase

More sand and de-icers

Increased maintenance cost

MP 228 Richardson HighwayMP 228 Richardson HighwayOne Mile Creek BridgeOne Mile Creek Bridge

Bridge and culvert problemsBridge and culvert problems

gg



photo by Alaska Dept. Transportation & Public Facilities


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Mudslides in old-growth forestsMudslides in old-growth forests

McCarthy mud slide



photo by Alaska Dept. Transportation & Public Facilities

Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline SystemTrans-Alaska Oil Pipeline System

42 % on continuous 42 % on continuous permafrost and

43 % on discontinuous permafrost

TAPS Permafrost Map



5

photo by Alyeska Pipeline Service Company


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Thaw Bulb under Pipeline SupportsThaw Bulb under Pipeline SupportsTypical Conditions Excessive Thaw



figures by Alyeska Pipeline Service Company

Pipeline Monitoring and Preventive MaintenancePipeline Monitoring and Preventive Maintenance

S t l tTh il it i

Yellow/orange: warmerBlue/purple: cooler

Support replacementThermopile monitoring



photos by Alyeska Pipeline Service Company


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Marine transportation opportunitiesMarine transportation opportunities

Waterborne commerce is Waterborne commerce is critical to Alaska

Plan for shipping opportunities

Less iceMore northern routesN h



New northern ports

River flow increases may improve navigability

E b t d f t

Rural infrastructure concernsRural infrastructure concerns

Exacerbated permafrost foundation problems

Water supply and waste disposal changes

Most site data is sparse d td t d



and outdated


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Arctic coastal communities at riskArctic coastal communities at risk

Sea level rise

Little Diomede, Alaska

Sea level riseFlooding

Erosion

Salt intrusion

More frequent and intense storms Little Diomede Alaska



Kivalina, Alaska

intense stormsSurges

Wave energy

Little Diomede, Alaska

Proven responses exist for most warming problems

Engineers’ views from meetingsEngineers’ views from meetings

Accurate knowledge of change saves moneySynthesize existing dataMonitor changes statewideImprove data transferRefine predictions

Revise codes, manuals, and design software to



, , gaccount for climate change


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Alaska Road Weather Information System (ARWIS)http://www.dot.state.ak.us/iways/roadweather/

Alaska Road Weather Information System (ARWIS)http://www.dot.state.ak.us/iways/roadweather/

Growing network ofGrowing network ofRoadway weather monitorsWeb camerasLinks to weather reports and forecastsRoad condition reportsTravel advisory reports



Travel advisory reports

Developed and operated by the Alaska Dept. of Transportation and Public Facilities

Alaska Ocean Observing SystemAlaska Ocean Observing SystemAOOS is one of a nationwide body of regional

ocean monitoring efforts (http://www aoos org/)ocean monitoring efforts (http://www.aoos.org/)

AOOS sponsors ocean data collection and predictions

in collaboration with NOAA and other agencies




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ConclusionConclusion



module 1b - climate change impacts 2010

Documents

arctic council

climate change ipcc

arctic engineeringmodule

climate change subcabinet

ipcc reportipcc

major reports

various special reports

importantspatial variability