MonarchButterfly SpeciesStatusAssessmentUpdate

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Inthiswebinar,IwillfocusontheregulatoryprocessthatismovingforwardandparalleltootherServiceprogramsthatareworkingcloselywithourpartnerstoimplementconservationactivitiesonthegroundformonarchbutterflies.

• Wewillbeprovidingaquickmonarchbiology101,• thenmoveintodiscussingthespeciesstatusassessment,• includingsomeofthemodelsandassumptionsweareusinginthemodels,• finishingwithaquestionandanswersession.

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JustaquickMonarchBiology101

Monarchsundergocompletemetamorphosis,including4lifestages.

1) Eggs arelaidonmilkweedplantsandthenhatchinto2) thecaterpillarorlarvalstagewheretheyonlyconsumemilkweed.3) Fromtheretheygothrough5instarsandeventuallyenterthepupaorchrysalisstage.

Theyareinthisstageforapproximately10-14daysbefore…4) eclosing intoanadult.Unlikethecaterpillar,adultsneedavarietyoffloweringplants

tonectaron.

Theentireprocessfromeggtoeclosing asabutterflytakesaboutamonth.

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Here’samapoftherangewithinNorthAmerica.Thereare3populations:1)thewesternand2)easternpopulationsaremigratory,and3)theFloridapopulationisnon-migratory.

MonarchsoverwintereitheronthewestcoastoftheUnitedStatesorinMexico,dependingonthepopulationtheyarefrom.

Asmonarchsmovenorthoreastduringthebreedingseason,thislifecyclewejustdiscussedisrepeated4-5times,creating4-5generations.So,themonarchsthateventuallymovebacktoMexicoarethegreatgreatgrandchildrenofthemonarchsthatleftMexicoandstartedthecyclethatyear.

Interestingnotehereisthat,inMexico,acertainnumberofoverwinteringbutterfliesareneededtocreateamicroclimatethatallowsthemtosurvivethroughthewinterthentheymoveintotheeast– therefore,populationnumbersseemtobeanimportantaspect,giventhemicroclimateneeds,atleastintheeastandlikelyinthewestaswell.

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Asyoucansee,withintheeasternpopulationwehaveseen20yearsofdecline.

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Similarly– thewesternpopulationhasalsodeclined.Althoughthegraphmaylooklikeastablepopulation,thetotalsurveymonitoringefforthasincreasedfrom2009-present,whilemonarchabundancestayedrelativelythesame– whichgenerallyindicatesalowerabundance.

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Here’saquickrecapofwhatImentionedearlier.

Duetothesepopulationdeclines,theServicewaspetitionedtolistthemonarchbutterflyundertheEndangeredSpeciesActinthesummerof2014.

Wecompleteda90-dayfindinginDecemberof2014anddeterminedthattherewassubstantiveinformationandweshouldcompletea12-monthfindingaswell.

However,duetoworkloadwedidnotcompletea12-monthfindingbythesummerof2015.WereceivedanoticeofintenttosueinJanuary2016.

WesettledwiththeCenterforBiologicalDiversityandtheCenterforFoodSafetyforfailingtomeetourstatutorydeadline;asettlementagreementoutlinedaduedateofJune,30,2019.

WeplantoworkonastatusreviewinthecomingyearswhichwillfollowtheService’sSpeciesStatusAssessmentframework.

Withthesettlementofthelawsuit,wenowhaveadeadlineofJune30,2019tohaveadraft12-monthfindingtotheFederalRegister.

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Importantnote:thepetitionandultimatelythelistingdecision,wasforthesubspecies–whichrangesthroughoutawidearea,notjustNorthAmerica.

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Importanttonoteonthetimeline:wedividedtheSSAintoprototype1(focusingjustonNorthAmerica)andprototype2(incorporatingtherestoftherange).

Herearesomecriticaldatestohighlightfromthetimelineabove.

• Webinars –• FirstweekNov.2016- Service• WeekofNov.7with the states and tribes

• March2017– Check-inmeetingwiththestates• Spring2017– ContinuewithPrototype2,includingreviewingthestatusintherest of

therangeandexpertelicitation.• Earlyspring2018– PeerreviewoftheDraftSSAReport• Earlysummer2018– Collectinformationfromstatesonformalconservationefforts–

likelythroughaconservationeffortsdatabase• June2019– listingdecisiondue

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Thisframeworkprovidesawaytopiecetogetherthepuzzlethatreflectsthespecies’biologicalstatusthroughaniterative,ratherthanastrictlystep-by-step,analyticalprocess.

EssentiallytheSSAisananalyticalapproachforassessingaspecies’biologicalstatus.

1. Firstthingwearedoingisidentifyingspecies’needs.Inotherwords,compileinformationonthemonarch’slifehistoryandecologicalrelationships.

1. Evaluatethecurrentconditionofthespecies,identifyingthreats/stressors/influencesthatareactingonthespecies’needs.

1. Thenwewillprojectfutureconditions,byidentifyingthedifferencesbetweenwhatthespecieshasandwhatthespeciesneeds,andwhatthismeanstothespecies.

Thisleadstoanassessmentoftheoverallviabilityofthespecies.Viabilityistheabilitytosustainpopulationsinthewildovertime.

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1. Toassessviabilityovertime,wearedeconstructingthequestionintothe3ConservationBiologyprinciplesofResiliency,RepresentationandRedundancy.

Briefly,1. Resiliencyistheabilityofthespeciestowithstandenvironmentalvariationand

stochasticevents.

1. Representationistheabilityofthespeciestowithstandphysicalandbiologicalchangesinitsenvironment,i.e.,adaptivecapacityofaspecies.

1. Redundancyistheabilityofthespeciestowithstandcatastrophicevents.

AsIdiscussedearlier,weareconductingtheSSAinphases.Thefirstphaseisaprototype.Weareworkingoutthemethodologies;indoingso,wearefocusingonNorthAmericanmonarchsandevaluating1futurescenario.We’lldiscussthismoreinthenextcoupleofslides.

Thesecondphase,prototype2,willbeamorecomprehensiveandrobustanalysis.Itwillexpandtorangewide,includeadditionalscenarios,andexpertinput.

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Hereiswhatwehavedonethusfar….

ForRepresentation,• Wehavesearchedformonarch-specificinformationonsourcesofadaptivediversity,

lookingspecificallyforwhatecological,biologicaltraitsmightbesourcesofadaptivediversity.

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Here’swhatwehavecomeupwithsofar...

AsInotedalready,thereare3populationsofmonarchswithinNorthAmerica;withinthesepopulations,we’veidentifiedvariationinadaptivetraits,allowingustodelineate6areas:

1. Floridaindividualsmayprovideuniqueadaptivediversityduetogeneticvariation.

2. Thewesternandeasternunitsmayprovideuniqueadaptivediversityprimarilyduetodifferencesinmigratorybehavior.

3and4.WithintheEasternunit,thenorthernportionmayprovideuniquenessduetotheperformancetraitsassociatedwithlong-distancemigration.

Andfinally,5and6,theover-winteringunitsinMexicoandCaliforniaduetodifferencesinwinterhabitatniches.

Ouranalysis,thusfar,indicatesthattheindividualmonarchsinthese6areasmayprovideuniqueadaptivepotential.Ouranalyseswilllookatlikelihoodofmaintainingmonarchswithinthe3populationsthatareseparatedintothese6areasovertime.

WearegoingtodothisbyevaluatingthespeciesResiliencyandRedundancy,givenvariousfuturescenarios.

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WeareevaluatingResiliencybylookingatthepopulation(N)overtime:historically,currentlyandintothefuture- ineachofthe3populations

• Welookedatvariousexistingpopulationmodelsandhadhopedtouseoneofthepublishedmodels.

• However,thoughtheyallgiveaprojectionofpopulationnumber(N)basedoncurrentconditions,noneanswerthequestionofwhathappenstothepopulation(N)givenreasonablefutureconditions(i.e.,stressorandconservationscenarios).

• Oberhauseretal.,2016attemptsthisbygenerically increasingordecreasingthepopulationgrowthrate(λ)byapercentage,butforthelistingassessmentweneedtodevelopplausiblefuturescenarios.

• So,weareusingastochasticgeometricgrowthmodelthatisverysimilartotheSemmensetal.,2016,withtheadditionofincorporatingtheeffectoffuturescenarios.

• Themodellooksatpopabundancenextyearasitisdeterminedbypopulation(N)thisyearmultipliedbypopgrowthrate.

• Popgrowthrate,(λ)ismodifiedbytheeffectofstochasticity(epsilon)andchangeinapopulationgrowthrate(λ)givenafuturescenario.

• WeareusingtheeffectofstochasticitythatSemmensetal.used• andthenderivingthechangeinpopgrowthratefromexpertinput.

• ForFuturescenarioswewillprojectthosefactors(thestressorsorthreats)thatareprimarilydrivingmonarchnumbers.

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Thechangeinpopulationgrowthrateisbeingevaluatedin3futurescenarios:businessasusual,bettercaseandworsecase.

ForPrototype1,wejustdevelopedthe“businessasusual”scenario– ultimatelyweintendtodevelopatleast3futurescenarios.

BasedonliteratureandpreviousServiceefforts,weidentifiedtheprimarydrivers(orthreats)foreachpopulation.

Fortheeasternpopulation:• Changeinmilkweedandnectarabundance(positiveandnegative),insecticideexposure,

andchangesinoverwinteringhabitat;• Changesinmilkweedandnectarhabitat,wearelookingatfutureglyphosateuse,

conservationefforts,andclimatechange.Conservationefforts=changesinConservationReserveProgramenrollmentandcompatiblemanagementinrights-of-waysandprotectedgrasslands;and

• Changeinoverwinteringhabitatduetoclimatechangeandillegallogging.

Similarly,inthewesternpopulationwearelookingat:• Changeinmilkweedandnectarresources,insecticides,andlossofoverwinteringsites;• Changeinmilkweedandnectarresourcesduetolandcoverchanges- butlacking

sufficientdatatomodelclimatechangeandconservationefforts;and• Lossofoverwinteringsitesduetotreesenescence(treesdyingofoldage)andstorm

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events.

Inthenon-migratorypopulation- evenfewerdataavailableforthispopulation:• Modelingchangeinmilkweedandnectarduetolandcoverchangesandinsecticide

exposure;and• Wehopetogetdataonclimatechangeandconservationefforts;however,ifwecannot,

wewilldevelop“reasonable”scenarios.

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Redundancyistheextinctionriskovertimeduetothefrequencyofcatastrophicevents.

Eastern– stormeventsinMexicoWestern– catastrophicfireincoreoverwinteringsitesFlorida– massinsecticideevent

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Thisseemstobeoneofthemostwell-studiedspecies,yetwelackspecificinformationonareasthatarenecessaryforarobustSSA:

• cause-effectrelationshipsbetweenparticularstressors(threats)andpopulationoutcomesorvitalratesarenotwellestablished;

• limitingfactorsarenotclearacrossallportionsoftherange;and• landscapeconservationdesignisachallengebecausewelackdataonconnectivityand

habitatconfigurationneeds.

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MultipleFWSregionalrepresentativesleadtheeffort,inclosecoordinationwithstates.Wehave2staterepresentatives,KarenKinkeadandEdBoggessonthecoreteam.

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