monetizing natural gas: gtw, gtl, lng, and cngold.mareforum.com/cyprus2013/nikolaou_michael.pdf ·...
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![Page 1: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Monetizing Natural Gas:GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGProf. Michael Nikolaou
![Page 2: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
2
Gas Transportation & Storage:The Alphabet Soup
• Gas to wire (GTW)
• Gas to liquids (GTL)– Chemical reactions– 10 bcf/d ~ 1MMb/d
• Liquefied natural gas (LNG)– Freezing (-162ºC, -260ºF)
• Compressed natural gas (CNG) – Compression (150-250 atm)– Possibly chilling
![Page 3: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
3
Gas to Wire (Electricity)
3
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine(CCGT) Efficiency ~ 60 %
Typical: 1000 MW power plant (CCGT)
Minimum: 450 MW (~13 Bcf/y)
Source: Int’l Gas Union
![Page 4: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
4
Gas to Wire (Electricity):Setting the US Clock back to 1992
![Page 5: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
5
A Long Time Coming
![Page 6: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
6
GTLGTL
Gas to Liquids (GTL): Gas to Chemicals & Fuels
Natural GasProcessing
Natural GasNatural Gas
MethaneMethane
SteamCracker
Ethane,Ethane,LiquidsLiquids
Refinery
Crude Oil Naphtha,Gas Oil
Olefins,Aromatics
Benzene,Toluene,Xylenes
Reforming
SyngasSyngas (H(H22 + CO)+ CO)
Fischer‐Tropsch,Upgrading
Naphtha,Diesel,Waxes,
Ammonia
Methanol
Steam, AirSteam, Air
![Page 7: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
7
Gas to Liquids (GTL): Very‐Large or Very‐Small Scale
•• Pearl integrated gas and GTL (Qatar)Pearl integrated gas and GTL (Qatar)–– 1600 1600 MMscfMMscf/d of gas resulting in:/d of gas resulting in:
•• 140 140 kbokbo/d of gas/d of gas‐‐toto‐‐liquids products (2 trains)liquids products (2 trains)•• 120 120 kbokbo/d of natural gas liquids and ethane/d of natural gas liquids and ethane
–– $19 billion$19 billion
Source: shell.com
![Page 8: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
8
Gas to Liquids (GTL): Mini GTL & Compact GTL
• 2‐50 MMscf/d
Source: T. H. Fleisch, Small Scale Gas Monetization via miniGTL Options, GGFR
![Page 9: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
9
Mini GTL: Evolving
Source: T. H. Fleisch, Small Scale Gas Monetization via miniGTL Options, GGFR
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Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
10
Gas to Chemicals: Natural Gas Liquids vs. Naphtha Routes
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
US ME EU Asia
Steam Cracker Feedstock Breakdown
NaphthaGas Oil
Natural Gas Liquids
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
US ME EU Asia
Steam Cracker Feedstock Breakdown
NaphthaGas Oil
Natural Gas Liquids
![Page 11: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
11
Gas to Chemicals vs. LNG:Export Potential in North America...
![Page 12: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
12
…Complementing Global Gas Trade Flows
Source: BP Statistical Review (2011)
1 bcm/y (gas) ≈100 MMscf/d (gas) ≈
2 Mt/d (LNG) ≈0.7 MMt/y, MTPA (LNG)
1 bcm/y (gas) ≈100 MMscf/d (gas) ≈
2 Mt/d (LNG) ≈0.7 MMt/y, MTPA (LNG)
![Page 13: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
13
The LNG Chain
EthanePropane
…
EthanePropane
…
DehydratorDehydrator
SweetenerSweetener
Source: www.total.com
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Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
14
Liquefaction Module = LNG Train:Size Matters
Sources: Tusiani & Shearer, LNG: A Nontechnical Guide (2007)Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business (2010)
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Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
15
LNG Tanker…
Sources: http://gazprom‐sh.nl, www.weaverscove.com
Moss tank
Membrane tank
Moss tank
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Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
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…Size Matters
0
50
100
150
200
250
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
LNG Carriers Built and Scheduled for Delivery
Small (<100 kcm)
Standard (100 to 200 kcm)
Q‐Flex (200 to 250 kcm)
Q‐Max (250 to 300 kcm)0
50
100
150
200
250
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
LNG Carriers Built and Scheduled for Delivery
Small (<100 kcm)
Standard (100 to 200 kcm)
Q‐Flex (200 to 250 kcm)
Q‐Max (250 to 300 kcm)
Sources: http://shipbuildinghistory.com (updated 2/29/2012); IGU LNG Report 2010
![Page 17: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
17
The LNG Chain
EthanePropane
…
EthanePropane
…
DehydratorDehydrator
SweetenerSweetener
Source: www.total.com
![Page 18: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
18
Floating LNG:Liquefaction
Sources: Shell; BBC
![Page 19: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
19
Floating LNG:Regasification
Source: http://www.worldoil.com/November‐2011‐Energy‐Issues.html
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Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
20
Mini LNG:Cost and Energy
• Capacity: 2,000‐500,000 tons/y (vs. MTPA)
Source: Kunert and Larsen, Small is Beautiful –Mini LNG
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Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
21
Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
Sources: Knutsen; SeaNG
![Page 22: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
22
CNG:Compressing & Chilling
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Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
23
LNG or CNG?
![Page 24: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
24
LNG or CNG?
• Both– Primary differentiator: Distance– Secondary differentiator: Scale-up/down differences
CNG Metal LNGCNG Metal LNG
Source: Nikolaou et al., 2013
![Page 25: Monetizing Natural Gas: GTW, GTL, LNG, and CNGold.mareforum.com/Cyprus2013/NIKOLAOU_Michael.pdf · Shively et al., Understanding Today’s Global LNG Business(2010) Nikolaou ... LNG](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022514/5af502e17f8b9a190c8dc5b0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
25
LNG or CNG?Effects of Scale
• LNG: Scale‐up strong– Doubling liquefaction capacity -25% CAPEX
• CNG: Scale‐down strong– Ship capacity increase: Modular
0 2 4 6 8 100
100
200
300
400
500
Distance , L�kmiles�
Gas
rate,
q�Bcf�y�
Lines of NPVCNG �NPVLNG
0 2 4 6 8 100
100
200
300
400
500
Distance , L�kmiles�
Gas
rate,
q�Bcf�y�
Lines of NPVCNG �NPVLNG
Source: Nikolaou et al., 2013
Metal Containers
Composite Containers
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Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
26
LNG or CNG?Effects of Uncertainty
• CNG: No commercial project yet• LNG: Cost variability
Sources: Cheniere; Nikolaou et al., 2013
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Nikolaou
GTW, GTL, LNG, CNG
OverviewOverview
GTWGTW
GTLGTL
LNGLNG
CNGCNG
ComparisonsComparisons
Closing Closing ThoughtsThoughts
27
Closing Thoughts
•Monetizing natural gas– Room for multiple technologies (pun intended!)
• Exploring new twists on old ideas– Pioneers vs. creative imitators