money times dec 6-12

8/7/2019 money times dec 6-12

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A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION

VOL. XX No. 4 Monday, December 6 12, 2010 Pages 19 Rs.12

Bouts of a pull-back rally likelyBy Sanjay R. BhatiaThe stock markets witnessed a relief rally last week on the back of the remaining Stochastic placed in the oversold zone.The anticipated relief rally came a week late as we were expecting it a fortnight back (week before last) but a slew ofnegative news flow saw the markets extending losses. Nevertheless, it has come and helped the markets bounce backfrom the recent lows. The volumes recorded remained low amidst the positive breadth of the market. The global economypainted a mixed picture. The financial woes ofthe PIIGS countries continued to hog thelimelight. Crude oil prices rose to tradearound the US $87-90 per barrel. Incidentally,the FIIs were net buyers in the cash as well asthe derivatives segment. Mutual Funds, onthe other hand, remained net sellers duringthe course of the week.

Technically, the Stochastic has come off theoversold zone on daily charts but remainsplaced near the oversold zone on weeklycharts, which should help the markets witnessfurther bouts of a relief rally. The KST andRSI have moved above their respective signaland trigger lines on the daily chart and wouldfurther fuel the rally. However a few negativetechnical factors continue to hold good and would continue to cap the upside. The negative divergence formation stillholds good and is a negative sign for the markets. The MACD is placed below its respective average on the daily andweekly charts, which does not augur well for the markets. The ADX continues to move sideways along with the DI lineand both are currently trading below 30. The +DI line, on the other hand, is moving upwards. The market sentimen

remains cautious and tentative. However, intermediate bouts of a pull-back rally are likely to be witnessed.Now, it is important that the markets witness buying support at regular intervals for the Nifty to move above the 6050resistance level. The markets would remain volatile and are likely to extend losses if the global economic scenario anddomestic news flow remains negative. Any negative news flow is likely to lead to increased selling pressure. In themeanwhile, the markets would continue to take cues from global markets and crude prices along with the news flow onvarious domestic scams.Technically on the upside, the Sensex faces resistance at the 20290, 20582 and 20827 levels but seeks support at the 19941,19162 and 18900 levels. The support levels for the Nifty are placed at 5950, 5777 and 5540 levels but faces resistance at the6050, 6150 and 6275 levels.Investors should use the upsides to exit long positions.

A Time Communications Publication 1


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Ram Bharosey!By Fakhri H. SabuwalaHeave a sigh of relief, life is back to work. Scams, bribes, corruption, etc. is our way of life! Be it Lavasa or LIC HousingFinance. Someone, somewhere is the Don and a lot of scores are settled across the table. Some or the other politician willraise his head and rescue the situation. Little wonder, a senior powerful politician warned the Central Government tostop witch-hunting or else lose corporate patronage to the opposition! The country has moved this way for long and it

will stay on course till a revolutionary raises his head Nahin to chalne do desh ko Ram Bharosey! (Let the country runrudderless).But the Ram here in no way refers to Environment Minister, Jai Ram Ramesh. He is known to nod his head horizontallyfirst before nodding it vertically. Mumbais new airport project and many others were put on hold for a long time. Thegreen jacket minister is taking GREEN literally. Ram Bharosey!After a near meltdown week before last, the market shaped up well last week despite the hiccups. The brave heartsamong us who could stretch their neck out bought in this fall and are making huge money. For the rest of us who sulkedit was one more opportunity missed. The mid-session meltdown on Friday, 26 November 2010, turned out to be a greatopportunity for entry on dips. The fall was so deep and brutal that its impact was not visible on the benchmarks. Theother non-index scrips fell as much as 10% to 40% touching almost new 52-week lows. Let the lows of that day be the stoploss level if a trend reversal is to be identified when the market recovers so smartly in matter of a few sessions and is ablysupported by global cues too, its time to discover some long shots as enumerated hereunder:

Ispat Industries:A company promoted by Pramod and Vinod Mittal, brothers of the high profile L. N. Mittal, is in thenews for the right reason. The global steel tycoon has at last shown an interest in his brothers venture and may pick up astake or possibly let it be a stepping stone into the Indian steel segment. The company also faced tax-raids during theweek, which evened out the rise. The scrip offers a great opportunity for long-term players. Once it goes into the ArcelorMittal fold, the pace of its growth will be very, very rapid. A sure case of re-rating the stock.

LIC Housing Finance: A company that has carved a place of pride in the housing loans business need not behammered for the personal gratification of its bosses. The company is always bigger than its executives or owners for thamatter. The bribe issue may have knocked off over Rs.400 from the recent high of the stock. Use this opportunity to getinto the scrip as the split in face value will trigger an upmove and the bribe issue will be a forgotten event.

Bharat Airtel:The competition war fare has taken its toll on the players in the telecom sector. Now it is the Rajas baajawhich is playing out loud. On either of this count, the scrip has come out a winner. Being the largest integrated and thefirst private telecom service provider the company is well placed for a leap forward. Sitting pretty with its presence in al

the 23 telecom circles and with its peak capex coverage and 3G license fees, the company does not face any large cashoutflow in the coming years. Even its African safari requisition is in place and will generate handsome revenues fromhereon. Having steered itself clear of the Raja scam, the company scores a neat goal over its nearest competitor.Bharti may generate $10 billion (Rs.45,000 crore) as cumulative free cash by FY2014. This and various positives will takethe scrip to Rs.425 in the short-term and over Rs.500 in the medium-term.

Sterlite Technologies: A leading player in optic fibre cables and conductors, this company is all set to participate in thelaunch of 3G technology and the increasing bandwidth, which in turn will increase the demand for optic fibre cables.The governments huge outlay for conductors in the 11 th & 12th Five Year Plans at Rs.32,000 crore and Rs.49000 crorerespectively presents a huge opportunity of growth. The scrip, which sank to Rs.70 last week, is in the recovery mode andwill in all likelihood touch Rs.140-160 in the medium-term.

Pull-back in progress

BAZAR.COM

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

By Hitendra VasudeoLast week, the Sensex opened at 19230.34, attained a low at 19167.19 and recovered thereafter to move higher and made ahigh at 20084.25 before it finally closed the week at 19966.93 and thereby recorded a rise of 830 points on a week-to-weekbasis.The trend line taken from 8047 to 15960 was violated by the Sensex in the week ended Friday, 26 November 2010. Butnow the Sensex is above the trend line. The pull-back of the fall from 21108 to 18954 were placed at 20029 (50%) and 20287(61.8%). The Sensex tested the 50% retracement level of 20029 and faced resistance of the same on Thursday, 2 Decemberand Friday, 3 December 2010. Now, the Sensex must move and sustain above the resistance of 20085 in order to scale



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higher to the test the peak of 21108. The fall was of 14 trading days from 21108 level. Hopefully, if the market has thestrength then the Sensex must cross the peak of 21108 within 14 trading days in order to establish the recent low of 18954as an important higher bottom. Alternatively, a lower top formation is likely below 21108, which will ultimately break therecent low of 18954.


The stop loss for selling identified last week at19900 was violated as the Sensex made a high of20084, which suggests that the momentary pull-back rise is in progress which could end at thecurrent level or at 20287 levels in days to come.

The weekly resistance will be at 20311-21228 whileweekly support will be at 19739-19394-18954. If thesupport gets violated then the downsidemomentum will resume and the move can be verysharp. If all this happens very fast, then the speedon the downside could be faster.

The Broad MarketBSE Mid Cap has formed a harami white, whichsuggests that the pull-back might get extended totest the resistance of 7843-8144-8710. Support willbe at 7843-7540-7339. On a fall below 7339, theslide can continue. Expect some volatility in the band of 8791 to 7339 before a further decisive direction from hereon.

The BSE Small Cap also formed a harami white, which suggests the rise will test the resistance of 10250-11054. Supportwill be at 9426 and 9233. If the support is violated, then expect the slide to continue.Wave Tree:

Wave Tree Month Year Sensex Month Year Sensex Remark

Wave I - - - - Dec 1979 113 Feb 1986 656 -

Wave II - - - - Feb 1986 656 March 1998 390 -

Wave III - - - - March 1998 390 Jan 2008 21206 -

Wave IV - - - - Jan 2008 21206 11-Nov 2010 21108 In Progress

Wave IV Wave W - - - Jan 2008 21206 March 2009 8047 -

Wave IV Wave X - - - March 2009 8047 11-Nov 2010 21108 -

Wave IV Wave X A - - March 2009 8047 Jan 2010 17790 -

Wave IV Wave X B - - Jan 2010 17790 May 2010 15960 -

Wave IV Wave X C - - May 2010 15960 11-Nov 2010 21108 -

Wave IV Wave X C - i 25-May 2010 15960 23-July 2010 18237 -

Wave IV Wave X C - ii 23-July 2010 18237 31-Aug 2010 17819 -

Wave IV Wave X C - iii 31-Aug 2010 17819 14-Oct 2010 20854 -

Wave IV Wave X C - iv 14-Oct 2010 20854 29-Oct 2010 19768 -

Wave IV Wave X C - v 29-Oct 2010 19768 11-Nov 2010 21108 -

Wave IV Wave Y - - 11-Nov 2010 21108 03-Dec 2010 19966 In Progress

Wave IV Wave Y a 11-Nov 2010 21108 26-Nov 2010 18954

Wave IV Wave Y b 26-Nov 2010 18954 03-Dec 2010 19966 In progress

AlternativelyWave IV Wave X C 1 - May 2010 15960 11-Nov 2010 21108 -

Wave IV Wave X C 2 - 11-Nov 2010 21108 03-Dec 2010 19966 In progress

Wave IV Wave X C 2 b 11-Nov 2010 21108 26-Nov 2010 18954

Wave IV Wave X C 2 c 26-Nov 2010 18954 03-Dec 2010 19966 In progress

ConclusionA pull-back is in progress. On termination of the same at the current level or at 20287, we could see the downsidemovement to begin to come back into existence. If the support of 18954 is violated, then the lower top confirmation will beseen and a strong motion on the downside could be seen.


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Strategy for the weekIn spite of the stop loss violation, the strategy to exit long and take profits where ever possible remains. Use the resistanceof 20311-21108 to exit long positions as the opportunity arises. Sell on fall below 18954 with the high of the week as thestop loss.

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKSLet the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with

what ever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or

above then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will

change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the up Trend.

Scrips LastClose

Level1

Level2

CenterPoint

Level3

Level4

RelativeStrength

WeeklyReversal

ValueStopLoss

UpTrendDate

StopLoss

BuyPrice

BuyPrice

BookProfit

BookProfit

TATA MOTORS 1315.00 - 1191.3 1268.7 1392.3 1593.3 78.9 1229.5 1138 03-12-10

TATA CONSULT 1095.45 - 1059.6 1085.8 1121.6 1183.6 74.3 1054.1 1045 03-12-10

DISH TV INDIA 73.40 - 65.5 71.4 79.3 93.2 74.3 66.5 60.70 03-12-10

M&M 799.00 - 758.0 786.0 827.0 896.0 73.2 771.0 735 03-12-10

DR. REDDY'S 1826.00 - 1782.3 1808.7 1852.3 1922.3 71.1 1777.0 1765 03-09-10

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKSLet the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with

what ever high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or

below then look to cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the

trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the DownTrend.

ScripsLast

CloseLevel

1Level

2CenterPoint

Level3

Level4

RelativeStrength

WeeklyReversal

Value

StopLoss

UpTrendDate

CoverShort

CoverShort

SellPrice

SellPrice

JAIPRAKASH HYD 52.75 41.0 48.9 - 56.7 - 17.09 56.26 59.30 19-11-10

JAYPEE INFRATECH 69.05 45.4 61.4 - 77.4 - 17.17 75.89 81.60 12-11-10

JSW ENERGY 100.60 84.3 95.1 - 105.9 - 23.35 106.97 115 12-11-10

PANTALOON RETAIL 402.20 325.2 377.4 - 429.6 - 25.52 420.04 448 12-11-10

DIVI'S LABS 620.10 571.8 605.6 - 639.3 673.1 26.35 651.02 680 22-10-10

BUY LIST

Scrip

Last

Close

Buy

Price

Buy

Price

Buy

Price

Stop

Loss

Target

1

Target

2HDFC BANK 2392.00 2339.50 2320.50 2301.50 2240.00 2500.5 2661.5

EXIT LIST

ScripLast

CloseSell Price

SellPrice

SellPrice

StopLoss

Target1

Target2

BERGER PAINTS INDIA 92.05 95.11 96.38 97.64 101.75 84.4 73.6

POWER FINANCE CORPOR 327.55 332.78 335.47 338.17 346.90 309.9 287.1

VARDHMAN TEXTILES 304.70 312.70 316.00 319.30 330.00 284.7 256.7

*Power Grid Corporation around Rs.96 may qualify as one of the best power play investment by retail investors. Thescrip is all set to double in a years time.

TOWER TALK

* Transformers & Rectifiers Ltdneeds no emphasis as the power outlay itself assures how high this scrip can go up.* Religare may have suffered a loss during H1FY11 but its recent thrust will ensure that it gains a bigger slice of themarket share.*Hindalco, Tata Steel, SAILandSterliteareconsidered to be the best and safest commodity plays by an investmentguru.*If realty stocks and their vulnerability scare you, just get into Mahendra Life Space. A clean realty company now comesup with four neat projects.*Sanwaria Agroreports better profits in Q2 and becomes a big edible oil play at Dalal Street.


*Diagnosticbusiness is well-poised for a big leap ahead. Piramal HealthcaresDiagnostic Division may be floated as ademerged entity soon.


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*Sugar may be harmful for health but not for wealth. Buy sugar stocks.* Share price of Temptation Foods has crashed mercilessly due to certain investigation against its CMD. Aggressiveinvestors can take this opportunity to play for 3-6 months as the share price will shoot up 50% once the matter is settled.*Share price of Ispat Industrieshas been beaten down badly due to reports of IT raids. Medium-term investors can buyat current levels.* Last week, Tulip Telecom entered into a network-to-network interconnection and joint marketing with the worldrenowned Hutchison Global. Keep accumulating.

BEST BETS

Jyoti Structures LtdCode: 513250Rs.125.05Incorporated in 1974, Jyoti Structures Ltd (JSL) isengaged in business related to power transmission withthree main lines of operation in the areas oftransmission lines, sub-stations and rural electrification.It undertakes turnkey projects on a global scale offeringa complete range of services in design, engineering,tower testing, manufacturing, construction and projectmanagement. Having a rich experience of over three

decades and with a clientele across 40 countries JSL isamong the few companies that possess the capabilitiesto execute turnkey projects in all areas of the powertransmission business. In fact, the company has anunique pre-qualification record to construct 800 kVtransmission lines, 765 kV substations and gas insulatedsubstations which qualify it to bid for all projects in thepower transmission business. Under ruralelectrification, it undertakes route survey in villages forlaying overhead distribution lines, construction of33kV, 11kV and low tension (LT) overhead lines usingconductors and cross linked aerial bunched cables onpre-stretched concrete poles, construction of singlephase/three phase distribution transformer substationsand provides LT service connections to consumersincluding metering and protection system. Presently,

JSL derives around 70% revenue from transmissionlines, 20% from rural electrification and the balance 10%from the substation business division.In order to provide end-to-end solutions, JSL has


established manufacturing facilities at Nashik inMaharashtra and Raipur in Chhattisgarh. With state-of-the-art CNC machines, these manufacturing units arecapable of making prototypes, fabricating andgalvanizing transmission towers and structures,

microwave towers, wind mill towers, railwayelectrification structures etc. with an installed capacityof 110,000 TPA. Besides its wholly-owned subsidiary,

JSL Structures, which has been recently merged with it, JSL has a capacity to manufacture another 19,800 TPAof transmission line towers. It also has in-house towertesting station up to 1000 kV at Igatpuri. It evenundertakes conductor stringing operations oftransmission lines and has a stringing capacity of 3,500kms per year. Notably, it owns over 40 sets of tension


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stringing equipment for quadruple and twin bundle conductor stringing. Importantly, the companys facilities have beenapproved by various international utilities such as Pacific Corp (USA), Vatenfall (Sweden), Power Link, Western Powerand Trans Grid (Australia), IVO (Finland), ABB (Germany), BalfoKipatric (UK), Hydroquebec (Canada), National Grid(UK), Mott Macdonald (UK) and Kennedy Donkin Power (UK). Till now, JSL has supplied almost 700,000 MT of towersand has constructed approx 20,000 ckt kms of transmission lines for various utilities in the domestic and overseasmarkets.Over the last few years, the company has been actively pursuing the overseas markets and established a manufacturingbase abroad by partnering with local players. To begin with, it has already set its foothold in South Africa and the Gulf. Ihas formed a 30:70 JV in the Gulf, wherein it has set up a transmission tower manufacturing facility in the Dubai

Investment Park with a capacity of 50,000 TPA. This JV has been executing various orders for the Dubai Electricity andWater Authority, UAE, Hyundai Engineering Corporation, South Korea, Karhama, Qatar, San Diego Gas & Electricity,USA and has an order backlog of Rs.1100 crore to be executed over the next two years. On the other hand, its 70%subsidiary Jyoti Structures Africa (Pty.) Ltd in Johannesburg is busy exploring transmission line business opportunities inSouthern Africa. Recently, it completed the projects awarded by Eskom and Nam Power although it posted a loss of Rs.11crore in FY10 due to delay in execution. As of now this subsidiary has bid for 45 projects worth Rs.700 crore, the resultsof which would be known soon.Meanwhile, the current order backlog at JSL is around Rs.4250 crore spread across transmission (76%), rural electrification(14%) and substation (9%) segments. Orders from Power Grid Corporation constitute about 28% of the order backlogwhile the private sector and various state utilities account for 14% and 58% respectively. The company is likely to submibids for the upcoming BOOT projects related to the Raichur-Sholapur 765kV S/C line and the 765kV D/C line of JabalpurPower Transmission Co. worth about Rs.1000 crore by December 2010. Importantly, the government is also striving to

enhance the per capita consumption of power to 1000 units and provide quality and reliable power to all by 2012Accordingly, development of the transmission network has to been done in tandem with the growth in generationcapacity and avoid any mismatch. Based on the estimated addition to generation capacity including the Ultra MegaPower Projects in the XI Five Year Plan, there is a huge opportunity for transmission line companies like JSL. In additionthe company is also expected to garner significant orders from RAPDRP (Restructured Accelerated Power Developmenand Reform Programme) and RGGVY (Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidhyutikaran Yojana) schemes. On the financial front, torepay its high cost working capital loans the company had earlier decided to raise around Rs.300-350 crore via NCDs on aright issue basis and had accordingly even filed the Draft Letter of offer with SEBI. But it later scrapped the issue and iscontemplating to come out with QIB placement. Fundamentally on a standalone basis, for FY10 JSL recorded 15% growthin the topline & bottomline to Rs.2019 crore and Rs.92 crore respectively. Hence it posted an EPS of over Rs.11 on itsequity of Rs.16.40 crore having face value of Rs.2 per share. For H1FY11, it has maintained 15% growth and consideringits robust order book position, it may clock a turnover of Rs.2250 with net profit of over Rs.100 crore for FY11. This works

out to an EPS of Rs.12 on its current equity. On a consolidated basis, the company is expected to fare much better withcontribution from its Gulf JV as well as African subsidiary. However there is a risk of 25% to 30% equity dilution in thenear future which may restrict the upside potential of its share price. But it seems most of the negatives are alreadyfactored in the share price as it is trading almost at its 52-week low. Investors can, therefore, start accumulating this scripfor a price target of Rs.175 (i.e. 40% appreciation) within 12-15 months.

Diamines & Chemicals: Good medium-term pickANALYSIS

By Devdas MogiliDiamines & Chemicals Ltd (DACL) is a 34-year old Vadodara, Gujarat, based company established in 1976. It is a leadingproducer of Ethylene amines in India having a plant at PCC Area, P.O. Petrochemicals, Vadodara, Gujarat.Its products find application in important industry segments like pharmaceuticals, agro-chemicals, dyes & pigments, etc

The company operates in two business segments viz. speciality chemicals and power generation. Mr. Yogesh Kothari isthe chairman of the company.DACL has been the sole manufacturer of Ethylene amines in the Indian subcontinent for over two decades. It later addedtwo more products to its product range viz. Piperazine Anhydrous and Piperazine 68% and has become the onlydomestic supplier of Piperazine to pharmaceuticals and other industries. The company is augmenting facilities forEthylene amines homologues.In the past, DACL was focused on Piperazine/Piperazine Salts as the main products used in pharmaceuticalsagrochemicals, lubricants, fuel additives etc. In fact, it is the only indigenous manufacturer/supplier of the Piperazinerange in India.



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The companys product range includes Piperazine Anhydrous, Piperazine 68% (PIP-68), Ethylene Diamine (EDA)Diethylene Triamine (DETA), Amino Ethyl Piperazine (AEP), Polyamines Mix (PA-MIX), Mono Ethanolamine,Triethylene Diamine (100%), Triethylene Diamine (33% in DPG), Triethylene Diamine (33% in PG), Triethylene Diamine(33% in MEG), Triethylene Tetramine (TETA) and Tetraethylene Pentamine (TEPA).DACL commenced production in 1982 and set-up a plant with total indigenous R&D and expertise. It is placed among theselect band of 6-8 companies that have proprietary technology for the manufacture of Ethylene amines.In 1999-2000, the company added new facilities and also added Piperazine Anhydrous and Piperazine 68% to its producrange.In 2004-05, DACL set up a wind mill at Surajbari, Gandhidham, for captive consumption. In 2005-06, it set up another

wind mill having a capacity of 1.25 MW at Dhule, Maharashtra, which will help the company generate funds from itspower supply to the Maharashtra State Electricity Board.Performance: For FY10, DACL reported net sales of Rs.45.31 crore with a net profit of Rs.9.35 crore netting an EPS ofRs.14.34.Financial Highlights: (Rs. in lakh)

Latest Results: For Q2FY11while sales rose 85.70% toRs.21.43 crore from Rs.11.54crore in Q2FY10, net profitdeclined 9.60% to Rs.5.84 crorefrom Rs.6.46 crore in Q2FY10The company reported an EPS

of Rs.8.96 for Q2FY11 andRs.12.55 for H1FY11 ended 30September 2010.Financials: DACL has an equitybase of Rs.6.52 crore with a book

value of Rs.32.22. It has a debt equity ratio of 1.06 with a RoCE of 46.49% and RoNW of 50.28%.Share Profile: The companys share with a face value of Rs.10 is listed and traded on the BSE under the B group. Its sharprice touched a 52-week high/low of Rs.96/Rs.47. At its current market price Rs.84.50, it has a market capitalization oRs.54 crore.Dividends: The company has been paying dividends as shown here: FY10 - 20%, FY09 - 10%, FY08 - 10%, FY07 - 40%FY06 - 50%, FY05 - 25%, FY04 - 20%.For FY11, it has declared an interim dividend of 15%.Shareholding Pattern

: The promoter holding in DACL is 65.08% while the balance 34.92% is held by non-corporatepromoters, institutions and the Indian public.Prospects: The companys prospects are linked with the performance of industries like pharmaceuticals, agro-chemicalsdyes & pigments whose outlook is brighter.The year 2010-11 offers a positive picture in terms of the growth in all segments in comparison to previous years.Consequently, the demand for its products will increase. At the same time, if the Indian Rupee weakens, imports wilbecome costlier, thus working to the companys advantage. DACL has also identified and is focused on some of itsspeciality products that would add to its application areas and increase the turnover.Conclusion: DACL is the pioneer in manufacturing a range of Ethylene amines in India. It has evolved productsmanufactured for the 'first time' in India and also pioneered to 'develop' a market for the same. Over the years, thecompany has established its presence in the market and is successfully catering to the needs of industries.At its current market price of Rs.84, the DACL share price is discounted less than 6 times its 2009-10 earnings of Rs.14.34Going ahead, the company is likely to report an EPS of over Rs.20, which makes the DACL share more attractive at the

current levels.In view of its leadership status, rare product profile and bright future prospects, the DACL share may be bought atcurrent levels for a decent appreciation in the medium-to-long-term.

Sensex bounces back to almost 20K

Particulars Q2FY11 Q2FY10 H1FY11 H1FY10 FY10

Net Sales 2142.64 1154.33 3717.02 2245.12 4531.10

Other Operating Income 4.03 848.00 5.52 875.41 879.29Total Income 2146.67 2002.33 3722.54 3120.53 5410.39Total Expenditure 1273.00 959.39 2434.37 1795.38 3746.36Other Income 1.40 (2.13) 4.44 1.61 11.38Interest & Finance Charge 60.97 42.63 123.58 90.88 257.58Tax Inc FBT 257.91 328.32 376.83 436.93 511.49Current tax 279.57 301.13 400.38 385.04 447.00

Deferred tax (21.65) 27.19 (23.54) 51.88 64.42Net Profit 584.36 646.12 818.32 856.89 935.44

Paid up Equity (FV: Rs.10) 652.22 652.22 652.22 652.22 652.22Res Ex Re Reserves - - - - 1449.15EPS (Rs) 8.96 9.91 12.55 13.14 14.34

MARKET REVIEW

By Ashok D. SinghThe BSE Sensex advanced 830.32 points or 4.34% to settle at 19,966.93 for the week ended Friday, 3 December 2010. TheCNX Nifty rose by 240.85 points or 4.18% to close at 5,992.80. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 3.61% and the BSE Mid-Cap



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index rose 3.55%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex. Among 30 Sensex stocks, 26 stocks rose while 4 of themdeclined last week.Consolidated positive global and domestic economic data together with bargain hunting aided the market to recover fromthe 3-week losing streak. The key indices posted smart gains for the week ended Friday, 3 December 2010 logging gains in4 out of 5 trading sessions.The IPO of state-run MOIL, the largest manganese ore producer in India, was subscribed a massive 56.43 times. The issueclosed on 1 December 2010.On the macro front, the economy grew a healthy 8.9% year-on-year in Q2FY11 maintaining the same pace of expansion asthe previous quarter boosted by farm output and manufacturing. The manufacturing sector grew an annual 9.8% and

farm output grew an annual 4.4% in Q2FY11. The government revised upwards the Q1 June 2010 GDP growth to 8.9%from 8.8% earlier.Indias merchandise exports rose 21.3% to $18 billion in October 2010 over October 2009 boosting hopes that the countrymay be able to reach the $200 billion target fixed for the current fiscal. Imports during the period grew by 6.8% to $ 27.68billion, leaving a trade deficit of $9.72 billion, data released on 1 December 2010 showed.Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, said GDP growth would be between 8.5% and 8.75% in FY11. Chairman of the PrimeMinisters Economic Advisory Council, C. Rangarajan, said the economy is expected to grow at 9% in FY12. Rangarajanalso said the government may reassess FY11 growth expectations and that it was not impossible to reach 9% growth inthe financial year.The output of key infrastructure industries increased by a consolidated 7% in October 2010, against a 3.9% growthrecorded in the same month last year, helped by a strong showing by the electricity, crude oil and the finished steesectors. The latest data for the six core sector showed a sharp rebound from the output in September 2010 when growth in

these sectors had slipped to 2.7%.Business activity in Indias services sector jumped to a 4-month high in November 2010 driven by robust growth in neworders, a survey showed on 3 December 2010. The HSBC Market Business Activity Index, based on a survey of 400 firmsrose to 60.1 in November from 56.2 in October. It was the best showing for the index since July and the 19th straightmonth it has remained above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction.


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6 months: Rs.4000, 1 year: Rs.7000, 2 years: Rs.12000, 3 years Rs.15000

Subscriptions at the current rate, however, will continue to be accepted onlytill 5 p.m. on Friday, 31 December 2010.

Indias manufacturing activitystrengthened further in November 2010and the strong growth momentum isshowing up in rising inflationarypressures according to an HSBC surveyreleased on 1 December 2010. TheHSBC Manufacturing Purchasing

Managers Index rose to 58.4 inNovember from 57.2 in October, thesurvey said.The food price index rose 8.60% whilethe fuel price index climbed 9.99% inthe year till 20 November 2010government data on 2 December 2010showed. In the week before last, annualfood and fuel inflation stood at 10.15%and 10.57% respectively. The primaryarticles price index was up 12.72% inthe latest week compared to the annualrise of 13.38% a week earlier.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 29November 2010, decided to extend itsliquidity support facility to banks tofurther ease the funds crunch. It haseased Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) asbanks can now maintain a lower SLR of2% less than the current 1%.Since FIIs follow the calendar year,year-end profit taking may cap the


9/19

upside on the domestic bourses in the near term. They have made heavy purchases of Indian stocks this year. FII inflowsin the calendar 2010 totalled Rs.132853.41 crore till 1 December 2010. In dollar terms, the net equity inflow in 2010 nowstands at $29.26 billion, above last years $17.45 billion. The annual inflows are at record levels this year.Trading for the week began on positive note. The key indices aided by bargain hunting to register modest gains onMonday, 29 November 2010. The Sensex rose 268.49 points or 1.4% to close at 19,405.10 and the Nifty was up 78.05 pointsor 1.36% to end at 5,830.The key indices reversed initial losses on Tuesday, 30 November 2010 on consolidated Q2FY11 GDP growth data. TheSensex rose 116.15 points or 0.6% to close at 19,521.25 and the Nifty was up 32.70 points or 0.56% to end at 5,862.70.Firm global cues helped the market head higher on the first trading session of the month on Wednesday, 1 December

2010. The Sensex rose 328.75 points or 1.68% to close at 19,850 and the Nifty was up 98.20 points or 1.67% to end at5,960.90.The key indices edged higher for forth running day on Thursday, 2 December 2010 on slew of recent strong economicdata, lower inflation and higher global stocks. The Sensex rose 142.70 points or 0.72% to settle at 19,992.70 and the Niftywas up 50.80 points or 0.85% to end at 6011.70.The market took a breather on Friday, 3 December 2010 as investors resorted to profit booking after a four-day rally. TheSensex shed 25.77 points or 0.13% finally to settle at 19,966.93 and the Nifty was down 18.90 points or 0.31% to end at5,992.80.The major trigger for the market is the advance tax payment of corporates for the third instalment, which falls due on 15December 2010. The advance tax figures will provide a cue on Q3FY11 corporate earnings.Also, a nation-wide truckers strike from 5 December night could weigh on the market as the strike may create logisticsproblems for companies. The All-India Motor Transport Congress has given a call for a strike demanding that the centra

government reduce the toll tax on the national highways.

Fierce tug-of-war on anvilMARKET

After two weeks of bloodbath end November 2010, the stock markets witnessed a massacre on Friday, 26 November 2010,when the BSE Sensex hit a recent low of 18954.82 and thereby lost 2153 points in just 10 working days from the high ofSensex 21108 made on 11 November 2010. This sharp fall did not have any economical or fundamental justification andwas attributed to global cues like the Euro zone crisis and the bank loan bribery scams, which seemed unreal.Admittedly, there was huge publicity about the bank loan scam but it did not affect the system or the concerned banks

and was merely a matter of bribe taking by individuals, which did not warrant this sharp reaction in thestock markets.


Actually, as pointed out earlier in this column, the market had been overbought and the excess positionneeded to be liquidated but were overlooked in the euphoric bull sentiment that prevailed earlier. Aleyes were on crossing the previous top of Sensex 21206 made on 10 January 2008. As a result, the buloperators found it difficult to continue and the slightest negative trigger worked like a bomb blast.The technical experts who were waiting for an opportunity favouring their forecasts about a deepcorrection jumped in joy issuing guideline of a deeper correction below Sensex 18000 till 30 November

2010. Although their prophecy did not materialize, they maintained a weak outlook as evident from the pink papers andTV media from Saturday, 27 November 2010 onwards.

G.S. Roongta

Readers must have, however, heaved a sigh of relief when this column came out boldly Market ready to bounce backwhich was a continuation of the previous articles headline Market to bounce back. Our forecast stands fully vindicatedby the stock movements last week and once again proved to be right although we were in a minority of one!This was indeed very striking as everybody was anticipating a deep correction and there was hardly any other voicetalking of a rally. But it was our study and understanding of the market by separating the wheat from the chaff and look

past the superficial issues and figure out the underlying forces that led us to believe that a rally was in the offing. In thiscontext, I had an interaction with another senior correspondent of this paper on Friday, 26 November 2010, who felt thathe worse is yet to come. I merely countered stating that what had happened was already in excess and if the market fallit will be a great God given opportunity to buy good shares.The happenings of last week may have helped him in revising his opinion but this is not the first time that my contrarianforecast has worked as the editor of this paper knows for the past 25 years.Thus the over beaten market bounced back sharply on Monday, 29 November 2010, and gained nearly 900 points withspeed within three days as the Sensex closed at 19850 on Wednesday, 1 December 2010 and the CNX Nifty came close tothe psychological level of 6000 as it closed at 5960.90 despite fears of likely FII selling.


10/19

The GDP growth at 8.9% dismissed all the fears of technical analysts as the Indian growth story is on track unsullied bythese so called scams or the poor economic conditions in Euro zone. Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, is quiteoptimistic about the countrys growth outlook, which according to me could touch 9%. Export has risen 21% in October2010 while import rose just 7%, which is a good sign as it is a matter of trade surplus unlike higher imports earlier. Bothindustrial and agricultural output are on track and can easily weather any minor scams.Banking and construction stocks, which had been beaten heavily in the past couple of days have started regaining the losgrounds. New issues and FPOs that could have been by the scams have fared well and money moving out from thesecondary market did not affect stock prices as was feared earlier. The rupee turned stronger recording the highest rise inthe last six months signalling the countrys robust financial health.

Most of our recommended stocks that were knocked down over the last two weeks have bounced back. Sarda EnergySRF Ltd, GSFC, Arvind Ltd, Shanthi Gears, Cosmo Films, Century Textiles, Elecon Engineering have flared up once againSubscribers of our Investment Advisory Service (IAS), who called us in a panic when the market was in the grip of a bearhammering and bought some of these stocks, are now laughing their way to the bank. Regrettably, few investors dare toenter the market in such conditions and most choose to stay away influenced by the TV channels or the pink media. Thusgreed and fear continue to play a dominant role and prevent them from taking the right investment decision. As a resultthey forget to seize the opportunity and buy a stock in correction in a bull phase or harvest profits at the right moment.Last week, I had the opportunity to visit some textile units and made a detailed survey and study. I am convinced thatthere are a number of units that are overlooked by analysts and their stock prices are languishing below their net worthdespite the revival in the sector since April 2010. We have identified a few such stocks that are likely to flare up from thecurrent level and will recommend them in our advisory service (IAS) and later in this column after completion of the fulstudy.

Likewise, the sugar industry that faced a severe setback on account of government policies on the import of raw sugarand ban on exports needs to be looked at for investment. Following the excess release of quota sugar in ration shops,which disturbed the equilibrium of the retail sale and sent sugar prices crashing from Rs.45-50 per kg to Rs.32-35 per kgdenting the margins of sugar mills, the sector is set to bounce back given the comfortable levels of production in the sugarseason that began in October 2010. The government is also in favour of allowing higher percentage of ethanol with petrolwhich will fetch more remunerative prices to the distilleries attached to most sugar units.Some of the laggards from the sugar sector may also start recovering and provide a good investment opportunity. I amstudying this sector and shall once again make it available to IAS subscribers followed by a detailed study in the column.On Thursday, 2 December 2010, the Sensex opened with a gap of over 200 points at 20038.66 and fluctuated in arangebound territory of 100-150 points frequently thus indicating the squaring up of the bull and bear positions at this

juncture. While it closed the day with a gain of 142.70 points at 19992.70, it had bounced back to the 20K levels in intraday trades. Similarly, the Nifty gained 50.80 points to cross the 6K mark at 6011.70.

Since the market has recovered more than half its lost ground in just four working days, the excess short positions seem tohave been covered up by the bears.On Friday, 3 December 2010, the marketopened strong but surrendered all the gainsto close with a loss of 25.77 points at 19966.93despite firm global markets. This was mostlyon account of the profit-booking of thesudden unexpected gains over the last fourdays.As such, the market may remain rangeboundnext week in the absence of any fresh triggers.The trading activity in such a rangeboundmarket is to buy on declines and sell at higher

levels. Let us, therefore, watch the marketcarefully as it will be a fierce battle betweenthe bulls and the bears and may berangebound. Long-term investors, however,could venture out to pick selectfundamentally sound stocks that becomeavailable on declines.

STOCK WATCH

Investment Ad visory Servic e

by G.S. Roo ngta

Mo ney Times is p leased to introd uc e Investment Advisory Service (IAS)

by o ur reno wne d c olumnist Mr. G. S. Roo ngt a, who ha s ove r 25 years

of experience a nd is we ll-know for his ac curate forec asts since 1986.

Interested investors c an visit Mone y Times office be twe en 4 p.m. to 6

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11/19


Despite its strong fundamentals and cheap valuations, the share price of Venus Remedies Ltd (Code: 526953)(Rs.264.50)has corrected by over 25% from its recent high of Rs.341 made in September 2010. It is among the very fewcompanies focused on injectables, which is the highest end of the formulation value chain that calls for stringentmanufacturing standards with demanding deep domain knowledge and thus commands low competition. In fact, it is thefirst & only company in India to manufacture fixed-dosage combination (FDC) injectables and is among the ten leadingFDC manufacturers in the world. During 2009-10, it received the Best Innovation Award from the Indo-US Science andTechnology Forum in collaboration with Lockheed Martin Foundation, FICCI and Dept. of Science & Technology (DS&TGovernment of India for its research product, Ampucare - a wound-healing solution containing 11 healing propertieseffective even on diabetic patients saving them from amputation. Today, the company has an active range of over 75generic or innovative products (largely through injectables) in different therapeutic segments like oncologycardiovascular, antibiotics, neurology, anti-infective, etc. It has set up a full fledged clinical research division that is busyconducting phase I, II, III & IV trials and bio equivalence studies. Till date, the company has received nine patents fromglobal and domestic authorities out of 341 patents filed in over 50 countries. Recently, it won the compulsory licence fromthe Thai Government for supply of Anti-Cancer Drugs for one year, which is worth Rs.10 crore per annum. Earlier, itsresearch blockbuster drug, Sulbactomax, won the European patent thereby becoming Indias first researched anti-infection product to get such a patent. For Q2FY11, the companys sales grew by 15% to Rs.86 crore and PBT improved by10% to Rs.14.50 cr. For future growth, it expects significant revenue from sale of its own innovations such as Potentox fortreating pneumonia, Tobracef for treatment of complicated mixed bacterial infections of acute pulmonary exacerbationsSulbactomax for curing pre & post surgical infections etc. For the entire FY11, the company may register sales of Rs.350crore with PAT of Rs.50 crore i.e. an EPS of Rs.59 on its current equity of Rs.8.50 cr. A strong buy at current levels.

*******

In the current market sentiment, long-term investors can accumulate the shares of this small engineering company,Patels Airtemp Ltd (Code: 517417) (Rs.92). It has been a slow but steady performer. In the last five years, its saleshave grown at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% whereas net profit has recorded a CAGR of 60%During the same period, the stock has given a compounded annual return (including dividend) of over 50%. Ironically, ihasnt raised any capital or diluted its equity since listing in 1994. The company is engaged in the manufacture and sale oextensive range of heat exchangers such as shell & tube type, finned tube type and air cooled heat exchangers, pressurevessels, air-conditioning and refrigeration equipments and turnkey HVAC projects in India & marketing of equipmentseven outside India. It has technical collaboration with M/s. TEK FINS Inc., USA, for design and manufacture of air cooledheat exchangers. Being a reputed manufacturer/fabricator of tailor made machines, it caters to core industrial sectors likepower, refineries, fertilizers, cement, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles and chemical industries. Since long, thecompany has been concentrating on high value added engineering products and has even got its product the covetedASME `U' Stamp authorization. With the governments special thrust on developing refineries, fertilizer projects, therma

power plants and nuclear power plants, there is good scope for the company to supply capital goods equipments toindustrial units in these segments. The company has confirmed order book position of about Rs.60 cr. Considering itsH1FY11 performance, it may end the current fiscal with sales of Rs.80 crore and net profit of Rs.10 cr. This translates intoan EPS of Rs.20 on its tiny equity of Rs.5 cr. Hence, the company is currently trading fairly cheap at a forward P/Emultiple of less than 5 times. A decent bet.

*******

The share price ofPBA Infrastructure Ltd (Code: 532676) (Rs.69.45) is lying low as the company has recorded aconsistent QoQ decline in its topline for the last three quarters. Even for Q2FY11, its revenue fell by 15% to Rs.67 croreand profit decreased by 30% to Rs.2.80 crore against Q2FY10. Long-term investors, however can benefit by thisopportunity as the company is poised to register healthy growth in coming quarters. It has projects in hand amounting toabout Rs.1000 crore including its share in integrated joint venture projects in various parts of the country. Further it is inthe process of bidding for many projects worth Rs.1000 crore per month independently or as a joint venture partner on a

regular basis. Moreover, it is awaiting decisions from various clients for tenders already submitted by the companyamounting to Rs.1500 crore and is among the few companies that regularly discloses of the orders bagged by it. Couple omonths ago, it was awarded orders worth Rs.450 crore from various agencies. The company provides integrated designEPC and Management for Infrastructure Projects including Roads, Highways, Flyovers, Bridges, Skywalks and Airporterminals. It is basically engaged in the execution of civil engineering projects and specializes in the construction ofhighways, dams, runways and heavy RCC structures, bridges and other infrastructure projects for various govt bodies. Ihas executed projects from Kashmir to Kanyakumari and has taken up new works like toll collection and quarrying toaugment its income. Of late, the companys work is mostly concentrated in Mumbai, Nagpur, Pune and other parts ofMaharashtra. In future, it intends to diversify its activities and enter at strategic points in time into the field of mining,


12/19

irrigation and real estate developments. For FY11, it is expected to clock a turnover of over Rs.350 crore with net profit ofRs.14 crore leading to an EPS of Rs.10 on its current equity of Rs.13.50 cr.

*******

Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd (Code: 520111) (Rs.124.20) is another scrip that is trading in a very narrowrange band of Rs.120-130 for quite some time now. The company manufactures stainless steel tubes & pipes and carbonsteel pipes. It makes high frequency welded (HFW) & electric resistance welded (ERW) pipes apart from manufacturinglongitudinal submerged arc welded [L-SAW] pipes & helical submerged arc welded [H-SAW] pipes of large diameterthat are primarily used for continuous transportation of large quantities of oil, natural gas and water over long distancesTo maintain its growth momentum, the company has been constantly enhancing its production capacity and is also in the

midst of adding 50,000 TPA of HSAW in the current fiscal to take the total installed capacity to 4,20,000 TPA. As a part oforward integration, it has also set up a 3 layer polyethylene and epoxy coating line with capacity of 2.7 million sq mtrs.Earlier, this sector attracted a lot of fancy and commanded a huge premium on the bourses but due to recession it lost itscharm. Market experts are, however, still quite optimistic about the future prospects of metal tubes and pipes and expecthese companies to record impressive growth. For FY10, the company clocked a turnover of Rs.852 crore with profit ofRs.81 crore i.e. an EPS of Rs.18 on its equity of Rs.9.20 crore having face value of Rs.2 per share. For H1FY11, it has alreadyclocked an EPS of Rs.8.25. Hence for entire FY11, it may register sales of Rs.800-850 crore with PAT of Rs.80 crore i.e. anEPS of Rs.17+ on its current equity. For FY12, it has the potential to record much better performance. Buy at sharpdeclines only.

By Kukku* Hira Ferro Alloys (Rs.347.90) is in the ferro alloy business and manufactures Ferro Manganese and Silico Manganesewith a capacity of 52,000 TPA supported by a 21.5-MW power plant. Ferro alloys are primarily used as alloying elementsin the production of steel to modify its strength, ductility, hardness and corrosion resistance. They are also used toremove unwanted impurities from steel such as phosphorous or sulphur. The growth of this industry is directly linkedwith the growth of the Iron & Steel industry, which in turn depends upon user industries. Infrastructures & ConstructionAutomobiles, Consumer Durables, etc.Ferro Alloys are critical inputs used to impart special characteristics to Steel whereas Manganese alloys impart strength tosteel. On an average 7-9 kg of Manganese is used for producing 1 tonne of steel, usually in the form of Silico Manganeseor Ferro Manganese.During Q2FY11, the companys net profit skyrocketed 730.11% to Rs.7.72 crore as against Rs.0.93 crore in Q2FY10 whilesales shot up by 50.19% to Rs.30.94 crore as against Rs.20.60 crore in Q2FY10.For H1FY11, the company has reported an EPS of Rs.41 on sales of Rs.72 crore. Since prices of ferro alloys are better in the

current quarter, its full year EPS may touch Rs.90. The book value of the share is Rs.246. Investors can keep a watch onthis stock for buying on dips around Rs.315 levels for good medium-term growth.Risk Factor: Since the price of ferro alloy products keep fluctuating, there is a risk of a sharp fall in profits when prices offerro alloys. Investors should keep this factor in mind before investing.* Hikal Ltd (Rs.386.40) manufactures and markets fine chemicals for the pharmaceutical and agrochemical industriesThe company is expected to report good growth in working from the next year with improvement in sales & margins. Thebook value of the share is Rs.175 whereasthe 52-week high/low is aroundRs.487/Rs.315. Last year, the companypaid a dividend of 80%. Investors canaccumulate this stock on dips for goodlong-term growth.*

KEI Industries (Rs.30.90) is engaged inthe business of manufacturing andmarketing power cables - Low Tension(LT), High Tension (HT) and Extra HighVoltage (EHV), control andinstrumentation cables, speciality cables,rubber cables, flexible and house wires,submersible cables, PVC/poly wrappedwinding wires and stainless steel wires.Although the September 2010 quarter

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results were not encouraging, the company is expected to report improved working in the second half of the currentfiscal.The book value of the share is Rs.36 whereas its 52-week high/low is Rs.43/Rs.29. Thus the downside is limited.*Net profit of Easun Reyrolle (Rs.122) has gone up by 100.90% to Rs.4.48 crore in Q2FY11 as against Rs.2.23 crore inQ2FY10 while sales rose 51.23% to Rs.86.05 crore from Rs.56.90 crore in Q2FY10. For H1FY11, its net profit zoomed by113% to Rs.4.15 while sales rose 36% to Rs.127 crore. The company is expected to do well in H2FY11.The company has also made substantial investments in Switchcraft Europe GmbH in Germany towards development ofan exciting new range of Medium Voltage Switchgear Products including 'Solid Insulated Switchgear'. This product haswon the award for 'The Best Product' displayed by an Indian or International Exhibitor at the prestigious Elecrama

Exhibition at Mumbai in January 2010. The new range of products from Switchcraft is expected to enter the market inQ4FY11 and expected to gain traction during 2011-12.The book value of the share is Rs.103 while the stock is trading at Rs.122 after touching a high of Rs.147. Investors canaccumulate this stock for good long-term growth in good sentiments.* There is good bounce back from lower levels, in polyfilm stocks like Uflex, Polyplex, Jindal Polyester, GarwarePolyesteretc. Investors who have not exited earlier can do now at higher levels. Use this rally to book profit at everyhigher level.*There are indications of improved realisation in the POY business ofJBF Industries (Rs.185.70)and benefit of the samewill be reflected from the current quarter onwards. Since the companys product profile is well-diversified, this stock hasnot fallen sharply compared to other polyfilm stock. Its Q3FY11 results are expected to be very encouraging. Investors cancontinue to hold this stock.* International Travel House (ITHL) (Rs.275.20), a part of the ITC group (61.7% stake), looks good for buying on dips

The book value of the share is Rs.94, its market cap is Rs.210 crore and the expected EPS for FY11 is around Rs.22 level.Investors can keep a watch to accumulate this stock on sharp dips.* Investors can keep watch on Zee News (Rs.14.86)for buying on dips around Rs.13 where in the downside is limited asthe yearly low is Rs.12. Marketmen expect some development in the company over the next few months.*Long-term investors can take the benefit of the current fall in the stock price of Jayaswal Neco Industries (Rs.32.25)asits 52-week high/low is Rs.51/Rs.27. Thus its downside is limited. The company had issued shares worth Rs.48 crorethrough a preferential issue of 1.42 crore equity shares to Reliance Mutual Fund at a price of Rs.33.80 each in June 2010.Thus at the current price, the stock is below issue price of Rs.33.8. The company will benefit over the long run after itsexpansion programme.*Bharati Shipyard (Rs.220.05) is another good stock where investors can keep a watch to add on dips. The book value othe stock is Rs.295 while the expected for current year is EPS Rs.42.*Atlas Copco (Rs.1729.90) was recommended in this column from much lower levels. Since it is a delisting candidate, the

upside in the stock is limited. Investors can book partial profits and accumulate Revathi Equipments (Rs.618)on dipsaround Rs.600 level where the downside is limited but it will test your patience to get good reward over the next oneyear.*Important Note: We have been giving updates on the stocks that were recommended earlier at much lower levels. Sincethese updates are for investors holding from lower levels, new investors should not take them as fresh buy call at higherlevels. Market is sentiment driven and new investors need to be careful in buying at higher levels.

By V. H. DaveEXPERT EYE

This scrip was earlier recommended in Early Bird Gains (EBG), our investment newsletter specializing in multi-baggers,at Rs.87 in February 2008 and again at Rs.120 in December 2009.

Ajanta Pharma: Accelerated growth

Ajanta Pharma Ltd (APL) (Code: 532331) (Rs.213) has posted excellent Q2FY11 results recording 56% higher net profitBased on the current going, APL is likely to post an EPS of Rs.40 in FY11 and Rs.47 in FY12. The share is expected to crosRs.300 mark in the medium-term. APL has a blue print ready for maintaining its 40% CAGR in net profit and 24% in totaincome tested for the last seven years.Headquartered in Mumbai, APL came into being in 1973 as a modest pharmaceutical repackaging proprietary concern. Itapped the capital market in June 2000 with an IPO at Rs.225 a share aggregating Rs.69.75 crore. Its core therapeuticsegments are: Nutraceutical, Cardiovascular, and Anti-microbial, Anti-tubercular, Ophthalmology, DiabetesDermatology, Gynaecology and Ortho-Rheumatology. Its manufacturing plants are replete with state-of-the-artequipment confirming to Good Manufacturing Practices (cGMP) laid down by WHO.



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The company has set up world-class manufacturing facilities in India, Mauritius and Turkmenistan that are equippedwith state-of-the-art infrastructure. It manufactures and markets a number of OTC and ethical products across 50countries Exports constituted 61% of its revenue in FY10.APL caters to various voluntary organizations and governmental institutions like the UNICEF, UNHCR, GovernmentHealth Departments, Defence Services and Hospitals. Its subsidiary in Mauritius produces dosage forms like tablets,capsules and injections. Besides producing products, research & development is in full swing to develop new molecularstructures and formulations in many therapeutical segments. It has demarcated the global market into six zones, IndiaSouth-East Asia, Africa, West Asia, Europe and Central Asia. It now plans to enter the lucrative US market.APLs subsidiary in Mauritius has wiped out all accumulated losses and attained a positive net worth. Its outstanding

performance is a testimony of its strong presence in Franco African markets. During FY09, this APL subsidiary enteredthe Philippines by setting up a subsidiary to cater to this large growing market.During FY09, APL completed the USFDA approved expansion of its Paithan, Aurangabad, Maharashtra plant. The tablecapacity has been enhanced to 1500 million from 900 million. Its small drug facility at Waluj, Aurangabad, commencedoperations since July 2009. During FY10, APL acquired a formulation manufacturing facility near Aurangabad to cater tothe world markets.APL has developed excellent capabilities for formulation development in conventional and novel dosage forms, whichenable it to launch new products. In FY09, it launched 38 new products in the speciality segments of the domestic markeand in FY10 it launched 24 new products in different therapeutic segments with several of them being the first to belaunched in the segment. Today, many of its brands enjoy leadership position in their sub-therapeutic segments.In FY10, APL established a subsidiary in USA with the objective of exploring the largest pharmaceutical market of theworld. It is looking for tie-ups for contract research, manufacturing, acquisitions and in-licensing opportunities in the US

market.During FY10, APL posted 34% higher net profit of Rs.36 cr. on 17% increased sales of Rs.407.7 cr. Its EPS was Rs.30.3 andit paid dividend of 35%.For Q2FY11, net profit on a stand-alone basis advanced 56% to Rs.10.1 cr. on 19% increased sales of Rs.113 cr. For H1FY11net profit shot up by 58% to Rs.17 cr. on 18% higher sales of Rs.211 cr.Its equity capital is Rs.11.9 cr. and with reserves of Rs.173 cr., the book value of its share works out to Rs.155. The value ofits gross block including capital work-in-progress (WIP) of Rs.47 cr. is Rs.268 cr. Its debt: equity ratio is 1.2:1 as on 31March 2010.The promoters hold 66.8% in the equity capital, Institutions hold 1.4%, PCBs hold 8.2% leaving 23.6% with the investingpublic.APLs Mauritius subsidiary has posted an excellent performance with a growth of 32% in sales and 13% in profits. Its stepdown subsidiary in the Philippines has just commenced operations and will contribute during the next financial year. Its

US subsidiary has been playing animportant role in filing ANDAregistration and obtaining USFDAapprovals.APLs Turkmenistan Joint Venture (JV),Turkmenderman Ajanta Pharma Ltdsperformance, however, was muchbelow expectation and APL may exitthis JV.With the help of its R&D capabilities, itnow has 1380 product registrations indifferent markets of the world and over1029 are in the pipeline. Its R&D facility

at Advent, Mumbai, which isapproved by Department of Scientificand Industrial Research (DSIR),Ministry of Science & Technology,Government of India, is beingexpanded and will ensure consistentgrowth for the organisation in comingyears.The global life sciences manufacturing


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outsourcing opportunity is estimated at around US $20 billion and is expected to touch US $31 billion in 2010. India hasemerged as a hub for global players due to the availability of world class facilities and quality products at competitiveprices. In the R&D sector, the value of the outsourced business is expected to be about US $7 billion by 2011.According to a McKinsey report, India will emerge as the 10 th largest pharmaceutical market by 2015 overtaking BrazilMexico, South Korea and Turkey. From a market size of around US $7 billion, the Indian pharma market is projected togrow to about US $20 billion by 2015. In fact, the incremental growth of US $13 billion is likely to be the 3rd largest amongall markets after USA and China. According to a Crisil Report, exports that are expected to drive the growth of Indianpharmaceutical market are set to nearly treble over the next 5 years.APL is likely to post consolidated EPS of Rs.40 in FY11 and Rs.48 in FY12. At the current market price of Rs.213, the share

is traded at a P/E of 5.3 on FY11 anticipated earnings and 4.4 on FY12 projected earnings. Applying a reasonable P/E ofeven 8 against the industry average P/E of 11, will take its share price to Rs.304 in the medium-term and Rs.384 in thelong-term. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.274/97.

*******

Zensar Technologies: An IT growth stockThe share ofZensar Technologies Ltd (ZTL) (Code: 504067) (Rs.163) is recommended for steady appreciation based on itstrong fundamentals and likely re-rating of the share on the acquisition of US-based Akibia for $66 million.Promoted by the RPG Group, ZTL is an Information Technology (IT) and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) major witha global network of offices and consultancy centres in USA, UK, Germany, Finland, South Africa, Japan, Singapore,Australia and China. The company has customers spanning across 20 countries. It is headquartered in India with centresin Pune and Hyderabad and has its other delivery centres in Gdansk in Poland, Slough in UK and Shenzhen in China.RPG Enterprises is one of India's larger industrial conglomerates with sales of over Rs.13,500 crore. With over 20

companies in its fold, the group has a strong presence in 8 business sectors viz. Power, Tyre, Transmission, ITRetail, Entertainment, Carbon Black and Speciality chemicals.ZTL has expertise in the key verticals of retail, manufacturing, logistics, financial services, telecom and utilities. ItsStrategic Business Units are: Application Portfolio Management (APM), Enterprise Application Services (EAS), InnovativeTechnology Solutions (ITS) and Business Process Outsourcing and Optimization (BPO).The company has forged strategic technology partnerships with global technology leaders such as IBM, Microsoft, SunMicrosystems and Oracle, which enable it to leverage its core competencies, ensuring comprehensive and state-of-the-arbusiness solutions to its customers.The company currently has over 100 customers including several from the Fortune 500 list and has formed enduringpartnerships with global leaders in verticalssuch as finance, retail, logistics,telecommunications, manufacturing, utilities

and entertainment.ZTL uses two key globally acknowledgedframeworks; ISO 9000 and the SoftwareEngineering Institute Capability MaturityModel (SEI CMM) to deliver quality services.In addition, it has adopted Six Sigma andTotal Quality Management (TQM) initiativesbased on the Malcolm Baldridge NationalQuality Awards (MBNQA) and EuropeanFoundation for Quality Management (EFQM)to drive process quality at ZTL.ZTL is the world's first enterprise-wide SEICMM Level 5 Company and now a CMMILevel 5 Company with industry expertise thatspans across Retail & Distribution,Manufacturing, Finance, Insurance,Telecommunications, Utilities, Textiles andPharma.


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For FY10, its consolidated sales surged by 5%to Rs.953 cr. and net profit by 47% to Rs.127.6cr. yielding an EPS of Rs.59 on its then equitycapital of Rs.21.6 cr. The company recently


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made a 1:1 bonus issue raising its equity capital to Rs.43.2 cr. The present book value of the share is Rs.68.During Q2FY11, its net profit declined 27% to Rs.27.5 cr. on 5% higher sales of Rs.263 cr. During H1FY11, sales surged by5% to Rs.505 cr. but net profit fell 11% to Rs.60 cr. giving an H1FY11 EPS of Rs.14.6.ZTL is fully committed to the domestic market with its focus on the key segments of government, education, media &entertainment, healthcare and logistics by launching new offerings and partnerships to service the sectors. Its growthplans will build help triple its size in India making it a Rs.100 cr-territory in three years from Rs.35 crore at present.The company has seen immense traction in the Enterprise Applications business and has been adding new customers toits Oracle business over the years. It is also a Platinum Partner (Highest level of partnership) in the Oracle PartnerNetwork Specialized programme and a Gold Certified Partner of Microsoft, which represents the highest level of

competence and expertise with Microsoft technologies.Last week, ZTL signed a definitive agreement to acquire US-based PSI Holdings Inc's unit Akibia for US $66 million incash in a bid to increase its on-site presence. Massachusetts-based Akibia provides IT services to companies worldwide tohelp them optimise, manage and support their infrastructure and has 900+ customers. ZTL had earmarked about US $100million to spend on acquisitions, of which US $66 million will be on Akibia alone.The Akibia deal enables it to bid and secure large contracts with values ranging from US $5 million to US $15 millionwhereas earlier it could only bid for contracts worth US $2-3 million. Akibia's operations are mostly based on-site withonly one project offshore.Akibia, which was founded in 1988, is a key player in the infrastructure management (IM) space and has revenue of overUS $100 million and has companies such as Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Verizon and Goldman Sachs as its customers. Itssystem integration and consulting expertise in the fast-growing network security, compliance and risk managementmarkets will help diversify ZTLs information security business.

ZTL will continue to look for more acquisitions, preferably in the IM segment in strategic geographies.The deal is to be funded partly by internal accruals and debt. For 2009-10, Akibia reported revenues of $101.8 million with$7.4 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.Globally, the IM business is worth $370 billion. Of this, 75% of IM roles and services can be outsourced. The worldwideremote infrastructure management (RIM) market size is $95-108 billion whereas the IM services segment in India isestimated to have aggregated export revenues of $4.3 billion in 2009-10.IT services, accounting for about 57% of exports from India, is witnessing a noticeable shift from projects towards multi-year outsourcing-based relationships; RIM is emerging as a key growth driver.BPO, which accounts for about 27% of its revenue, is the fastest growing segment across software and services exportsdriven by scale as well as a rapidly expanding service landscape.The Indian IT-BPO industry has a positive outlook given the sufficiency of demand, strong fundamentals and afavourable environment, keeping it well on its path to attaining the $73.1 billion exports by 2010. The industry has the

potential to grow 5 times to $360-375 billion by 2020.During FY11, consolidated sales are expected to touch Rs.1150 cr. with net profit to Rs.140 cr. This would translate into aconsolidated EPS of Rs.32 on its enhanced equity resulting from 1:1 bonus.At the current market price of Rs.163, the share is traded at a P/E of just 5.2 on its FY11 estimated earnings. The industryaverage P/E for the medium-small sized IT companies is currently ruling at 12.The ZTL share is recommended with a target price of Rs.250 in the medium-to-long-term on a conservative P/E of 8. Thiswould fetch a gain of over 51%. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.185/136.

By Nayan Patel

Swiss Glascoat Equipments LtdBSE Code: 522215

Last Close: Rs.42.80Swiss Glascoat Equipments Ltd is a company engaged in themanufacture of glass lined equipment and spares. Today, thecompany has emerged as a front-runner of the domestic glasslining fraternity with the help of its trend-setting products and services by catering to industries as diverse as dyes &pigments, pharmaceuticals, food processing chemicals, pesticides, intermediates, resins or any other conceivablecorrosion-prone operations in chemical processing.

TECHNO FUNDA

Review

Last week, we recommended Indo Boraxat Rs.70.35. OnMonday, 29 November 2010, itself the stock zoomed to

Rs.74.80 level and recorded 6.32% returns.

It has an equity base of Rs.5 cr. that is supported by reserves of about Rs.10 cr. The promoters hold 43.34%, non-promotecorporate bodies hold 5.59%, foreign investors hold 12.85% while the investing public holds 38.23% stake in the companyBanco Products, an auto ancillary giant (CMP: Rs.95 on Rs.2 paid-up share), holds 87,700 shares in this company.



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For Q2FY11, it recorded net sales of Rs.12.75 cr. with net profit of Rs.76 lakh against net sales of Rs.12.29 cr. with net profiof Rs.43 lakh in Q2FY10. (Net profit zoomed 76.74% on a quarterly basis). For H1FY11, it recorded net sales of Rs.24.31 crwith net profit of Rs.1.45 cr. against net sales of Rs.22.23 cr. with net profit of Rs.92 lakh in H1FY10. (Net profit zoomed57.60% on a half-yearly basis). The quarterly EPS was Rs.1.53 while H1FY11 EPS is Rs.2.92. It is a regular dividend payingcompany that paid 12% in FY08 & FY09 but increased it to 17% for FY10. This shows that the company is investor-friendlyand its promoters are hopeful of a bright future. At the current level, the stock is available at a forward P/E multiple of

just 7.2.Technically, the stock has a trend line support around Rs.38 level with a strong support base around Rs.34-35 level. As peour analysis, the stock may not fall below the Rs.34-38 support level zone in the near term. On the upper side, the stock

has the potential to zoom to Rs.52-55 level in the short-term and Rs.63-68 level in the medium-term.In an uncertain market, the Swiss Glascoat stock is a good buy for attractive dividend yield as well as decent capitalappreciation in the short-to-medium-term.

Central Bank launches Doorstep BankingMONEY FOLIO

Central Bank of India has introduced Doorstep Banking. Under this scheme, the Bank will provide facility of picking upand delivering cash from the customers doorsteps by way of arrangement with a service provider.As a complementary service, the Bank also proposes to pick up instruments like cheques/drafts from the customersresidence/office at the time of pick-up/delivery of cash. This scheme is initially available in Delhi and Mumbai.

Ravi Kumar Distilleries IPO opens on 8th DecRavi Kumar Distilleries Ltd (RKDL), a Chennai based manufacturer of Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL), is enteringthe capital markets with an IPO of Rs.1,15,00,000 equity shares of Rs.10 each through the 100% book building process inthe price band of Rs.56 to Rs.64 per equity share. The issue, which opens on Wednesday, 8 December and closes onFriday, 10 December 2010, has been graded CARE IPO Grade 2 by CARE Ltd. indicating its below average fundamentaland will be listed on the BSE and NSE.Incorporated in 1993, RKDL manufactures and markets its own brand portfolio of 30 IMFL products as well as 65products under tie-up arrangements with other liquor manufacturers. It has an installed capacity of 14,25,000 cases perannum and an Excise Bonded Warehouse of 26,000 cases with all modern facility for blending, bottling and packing in theUnion Territory of Puducherry.The company intends to utilize the proceeds of the issue to expand capacity and also for the installing of Re-distillationplant. The company will also part-finance its marketing and corporate branding expenses from the issue proceeds.For FY10, it recorded Total Income of Rs.50.23 cr. with Net Profit of Rs.2.85 cr. as against a Total Income of Rs.43.10 cr

with Net Profit of Rs.2.32 cr. in FY09. For Q1FY11, it recorded Total Income of Rs.13.93 cr. with net profit of Rs.88 lakh.

Central Bank organizes BANCON 2010Bankers Conference BANCON 2010 on the Theme Transform To Outperform: Ideate, Innovate & Inspire is beinghosted by Central Bank of India with the organizational support of Indian Banks Association (IBA).BANCON 2010 also marks the beginning of the Centenary Year of Central Bank of India, which aptly captured its mottoCentral to you since 1911. With a branch network of 3629 spread through the length and breadth of the country, the bankis actively involved in contributing to the growth of the economy and serving all strata of customers.

Shipping Corporations FPO oversubscribedThe Further Public Offering (FPO) of Shipping Corporation of India that evoked an initial lukewarm response hasreceived subscription of 4.92 times till Friday, 3 December 2010. The FPO has received total bids for 41,64,59,250 equityshares against the offer of 84690730 equity shares. The issue received bids for 16,09,49,350 equity shares at the cut-offprice.The Retail Individual Investors portion of the issue has received nearly 6 times subscription. The IPOs & FPOs that havecome after the higher retail limit to Rs.2 lakh have fetched a good response in the retail category. The change in interest isdue to HNIs (High Networth Individuals) applying under retail category as they are eligible for the 5% retail discountThe retail portion had 35% of the issue compared to 15% of Non-Institutional Investors portion.



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