moneyball for votes

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putorti Moneyball for Votes

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Michael Lewis in his 2003 book Moneyball wrote in-part about how baseball has become an unfair game controlled by the big-spending teams. The same can be said of our political system, and the problem is only getting worse.

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Page 1: Moneyball for Votes

putorti

Moneyball for Votes

Page 2: Moneyball for Votes

1787

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Article the first... After the first enumeration required by the first article of the Constitution, there shall be one Representative for every thirty thousand, until the number shall amount to one hundred, after which the proportion shall be so regulated by Congress, that there shall be not less than one hundred Representatives, nor less than one Representative for every forty thousand persons, until the number of Representatives shall amount to two hundred; after which the proportion shall be so regulated by Congress, that there shall not be less than two hundred Representatives, nor more than one Representative for every fifty thousand persons.

Page 4: Moneyball for Votes

Article the first... After the first enumeration required by the first article of the Constitution, there shall be one Representative for every thirty thousand, until the number shall amount to one hundred, after which the proportion shall be so regulated by Congress, that there shall be not less than one hundred Representatives, nor less than one Representative for every forty thousand persons, until the number of Representatives shall amount to two hundred; after which the proportion shall be so regulated by Congress, that there shall not be less than two hundred Representatives, nor more than one Representative for every fifty thousand persons.

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Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_apportionment

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Source: nationalatlas.gov

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1 33,000

1 709,760

Source: Wikipedia

1793 2008

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Source: why435.org

6,000 — 10,000Article I

435Today

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Source: why435.org

1 90,000

1 709,760 CONGRESS

HOUSE of COMMONS

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PROBLEM

Intermediaries necessary

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Source: opensecrets.org

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PROBLEM

Too easy for moneyed interests to buy votes

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Source: opensecrets.org

$3.55BTotal lobbying spending in 2010

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For every dollar spent on lobbying, the companies got $220 in tax benefits... a return of 22,000%.”Alex Blumberg

Source: npr.com

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PROBLEM

Winning votes to be elected is very expensive

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Source: opensecrets.org

$6.5MCost to win Senate race in 2008

$1.1MCost to win Congressional race in 2008

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1948

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1964

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1988

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2004

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What do we have?

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The new intermediaries

SOLUTION

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SOLUTION

Disrupt mass media by using a cheaper channel

to deliver votes

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Mass media

• Top-down, one-to-many

• Expensive, self-reinforcing

• Message concentrated in few hands

• Command-and-control organization

Social media

• Many-to-many

• Cheap, accessible

• Message can evolve

• New blocs can form based on shared interest

• Self-organization

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SOLUTION

Use their tools to your advantage

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Before

• Voter data kept hidden by political parties

• Consumer data expensive, locked away

• TV watching high

• Phone, location, transit limits message

Now

• Voter roll data available to the public

• Data is being shared on Facebook

• TV on the decline; cell phones, internet increasing

• Messages can spread virally

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SOLUTION

“I’ll deliver my votes to you if...”

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Still Happening

• Donors and their agendas most important

• Negative ads dominate

• Politicians forced to satisfy donors to be re-elected

• Outspending

Future

• New power-brokers on social media are the most important

• Positive messages dominate

• Politicians need to hold support of engaged citizenry

• Outfriending

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“the person who brings in the most online voters between now and September 10 will win coffee

with the Congresswoman”

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IN CONCLUSION

Apathy is out, engagement is in

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