Monitoring and Modelling Deforestation in Amazonia

Gilberto Câmara, INPE, Brazil

Schermerhorn LectureOpening Academic Year, ITC, 2008

Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)

Can we avoid that this….

Fire...

Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)

….becomes this?

Global ChangeHow much land change is happening?

Where are land changes taking place?

Who is causing the change?

What are the impacts of public

policies?

What will happen in the future?

Agricultural Trade in Brazil

photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)

Unidade 1992 2001 %Amazônia Legal 29915799 51689061 72,78% Brasil 154,229,303 176,388,726 14,36%Fonte: PAM - IBGE

Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil

Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil

1992 2007

Amazonia 30 million 75 million

Brasil 154 million 207 million

photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)

Processes of deforestation

Slash and burn Progressive degradation

Slash and burn

Burn: end of dry season

Slash: start of dry season

Progressive degradation

Wood extraction and burningSelective logging

Further burning and pasture

Barlow and Peters (2008)

Clear cut

T2 – Loss of smaller trees

Progressive degradation

T1 – Selective logging

T3 – Loss >50% of forest T4 – Loss >90% of forest

Severely degraded forest

Pasture

Satellites for Forestry

1

10

100

1 10 100 1000Resolution (m)

Revis

it (

days)

WFI CB2

CCD CBERS-2

AWFI CB3

PAN CBERS-3

Technology 2008

Technology 2015

Technology 2000

50

50

5CBERS-6

CBERS-5

Mapping Deforestation

Detection Deforestation

Identification Forest types

5

Amaz-1

A1-CB3

LANDSAT TM

MODIS

Deforestation as an event

Forest Clear cut

Clear cut – end of deforestation(objective and definitive)

~230 scenes Landsat/year

PRODES: Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas(220 LANDSAT, 500 CBERS, 50 DMC images)

Clear-cut deforestation monitoring

~230 scenes Landsat/year

Taxa anual de desmatamento

PRODES: Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas

Clear-cut deforestation monitoring

Is deforestation an event or a process?

What happens between the pristine forest and the clear cut?

?

Forest Clear cut

DETER: 15-day alerts of newly deforested large areas

Monitoring Deforestation in Amazonia

Exploração intensiva

Floresta

Perda >90% do dossel

Corte raso

Perda >50% do dossel

time

DETER – alert 1

How far is detection timefrom real-world time?

DETER – alert 2

DETER – final alert

Intensive exploitation

Floresta

Loss >90%

Clear cut

Loss >50%

Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 22 August 2003

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 May 2004

Imagem Modis de 2004-05-21, com excesso de nuvens

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 21 May 2004

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 June 2004

6.000 hectares deforested in one month!

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 22 June 2004

Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 07 July 2004

Alerta DETER nov-2007Landsat/TM

August 2007

MODIS

November 2007

How hard is to use MODIS images to detect deforestation?

Clear-cut for pasture

Checking DETER´s data (February 2008)

Monthly reports: May 2008

Clear-cut

Intensive impact

Moderate impact

Low impact

Error

166-112

116-113

116-112

TerraAmazon – open source software for large-scale land change monitoring

Spatial database (PostgreSQL with vectors and images)

2004-2008: 5 million polygons, 500 GB images

What’s coming next?

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario D Estradas não pavimentadasRios principais

Estradas pavimentadas em 2010Áreas protegidas em 1997Novas áreas protegidas (2004)

Ações de comando e controle(locais de cumprimento da lei)

Limites estaduais

Demanda: 25.000 km2

Estradas não pavimentadasRios principais

Estradas pavimentadas em 2010Áreas protegidas em 1997Novas áreas protegidas (2004)

Ações de comando e controle(locais de cumprimento da lei)

Limites estaduais

Demanda: 15.000 km2

Decreasing demand(15.000 km2)New protected areas, new roads Command and control actions

Estradas não pavimentadasRios principais

Estradas pavimentadas (2010)

Limites estaduais

0.0 – 0.10.1 – 0.20.2 – 0.30.3 – 0.40.4 – 0.50.5 – 0.60.6 – 0.70.7 – 0.80.8 – 0.90.9 – 1.0

% change 1997 a 2020:

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario D

Projected scenario for Amazonia 2020

INPE´s results have worldwide impact

Society is watching!

International credibility helps…

TerraAmazon

“Today, Brazil’s monitoring system is the envy of the world. INPE has its own remote sensing satellite, a joint effort with China, that allows it to publish yearly totals of deforested land that scientists regard as reliable.”

Until 2015, Norway will give up to US$ 1 billion to reduce deforestation in the Amazon. Norway’s contribution will depend on how successful Brazil will be in reducing deforestation. Brazil has the largest rain forest and one of the world’s most advanced systems for surveillance of deforestation.

...especially when real money is involved!