Monitoring Food SecurityMario Zappacosta, FAO/GIEWS

3rd CRAM Workshop, Nairobi, September 26, 2011

FAO Global Information and Early Warning System

• It was established in 1975 to monitor the food supply and demand situation at global, regional and country levels in order to provide early warnings of impending serious food shortages.

Main GIEWS activities Monitoring and analysing food security: Food production/supply, utilization, import requirements and food aid

needs

• Information regularly monitored:– Rainfall and other weather-related variables– NDVIs– Input availability and prices– Prices of main food commodities– Trade (formal & cross border)– Policies with an impact on food security (e.g. trade restrictions,

safety nets, food voucher distributions, etc…)– Access to markets– Vulnerability analysis– Macro-economic data

Main GIEWS activities• Main sources of information

– Satellite images– National and regional meteorological data– Rainfall estimates– Regional EW& FS bulletins (FEWSNET, FSNAU, JRC, etc…)– National statistics– Government and UN reports on FS– Trade bulletins– FAO trade data by source/destination– FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Missions– National Vulnerability Assessments– Other Need Assessment reports– Newswire services

Reporting:Regular publications:

– Food Outlook (biannual)– Crop Prospects & Food Situation (quarterly)– Country Briefs (bimonthly)– Global Price Monitor Bulletin (monthly)– FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (monthly)

Other publications:– FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Missions– Special Alerts

Main GIEWS activities

Main GIEWS activities

Other GIEWS products:– Country Cereal Balance Sheets (CCBS) – National and international food prices database

• GIEWS Food Price Data and Analysis Tools– Interpolated Estimated Decadal Rainfall for Africa Countries– Food trade database (by source/destination)– Country Policy Monitoring database

Country Cereal Balance Sheets

ZIMBABWE Last Data Log: 26/01/2009 26/02/2009Item: MAIZE CurrentHem: South Forecast Next YearMYr: Apr/Mar 1998.99 1999.00 2000.01 2001.02 2002.03 2003.04 2004.05 2005.06 2006.07 2007.08 2008.09 2009.10

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 000s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )Population 12 369 12 523 12 656 12 767 12 859 12 941 13 025 13 119 F 13 228 F 13 322 F 13 417 F 13 513

( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 000 tons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)

TOTAL SUPPLY 2 184 2 028 2 313 2 224 2 005 1 931 2 641 2 004 2 082 1 855 1 850 1 760 Domestic Availability 1 818 1 810 2 308 1 892 899 1 230 1 996 1 265 1 785 1 353 847 520 Opening Stocks 400 290 200 425 400 300 310 350 300 400 200 200 Production 1 418 1 520 F 2 108 F 1 467 F 499 F 930 F 1 686 G 915 G 1 485 G 953 G 647 F 320 F

( J/J Imports) 366 F 218 F 5 R 331 R 1 106 I 701 I 645 I 739 I 297 I 503 I 1 003 I 1 240 I Imports 366 F 218 4 C 333 C 1 106 C 701 C 645 C 739 C 297 C 503 C 1 003 1 240 C Commercial Imports 366 218 F 0 318 F 764 G 340 G 530 F 686 G 235 G 380 F 764 C 740 Food Aid 0 0 4 14 343 361 115 53 62 122 239 500

TOTAL UTILIZATION 2 184 2 028 2 313 2 224 2 005 1 931 2 641 2 004 2 082 1 855 1 850 1 760 Domestic Utilization 1 844 1 828 1 888 1 824 1 705 1 621 2 291 1 704 1 682 1 655 1 650 1 660 Food Use 1 350 B 1 378 B 1 388 B 1 378 B 1 405 B 1 421 B 2 091 B 1 479 B 1 464 B 1 485 B 1 480 B 1 490 B Feed Use 354 350 350 370 250 150 150 150 150 120 100 100 Other Uses 140 100 F 150 F 76 F 50 F 50 F 50 F 75 F 68 F 50 F 70 F 70 F

(J/J Exports) 50 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F Exports 50 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F 0 F

Closing Stocks 290 F 200 F 425 F 400 F 300 F 310 F 350 F 300 F 400 F 200 F 200 F 100 F of which Government 50 F 50 F 100 2 F 2 F 2 F 3 F 2 F 2 F 2 F 2 F 2 F

( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/yr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)

PER CAP FOOD USE 109.1 110.0 109.6 108.0 109.3 109.8 160.5 112.8 110.7 111.5 110.3 110.3PER CAP FEED USE 28.6 27.9 27.7 29.0 19.4 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 9.0 7.5 7.4

Auxiliary Data

Area (000 hectares) 1 224 F 1 446 F 1 417 F 1 223 F 1 318 F 1 388 F 1 494 G 1 730 G 1 713 G 1 446 G 1 743 1 743 Yield (kg/ha) 1 158 1 051 1 488 1 199 378 670 1 129 529 867 659 371 184

Wheat, rice, maize, sorghum, millet, barley, oats, coarse grains and total cereals

Cereal Supply/Demand Balances for Sub-Saharan Africa

Estimated Decadal Rainfall

Quantitative estimate of rainfall combining METEOSAT derived Cold Cloud Duration imagery and data on observed rainfall (GTS-Global Telecommunication System by the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre) Source: NOAA/FEWSNET; FAO/NRCB-Agrometeorology Group

THANK YOU!

http://www.fao.org/giews