International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal

Monitoring of Natural Resources

in the HKH region

Birendra Bajracharya

Special Session: Mountains Under Review

Experience Exchange on Remote Sensing-based

Monitoring of Natural Resources in Mountain Regions

The Hindu Kush Himalayas

ICIMOD - an intergovernmental and independent organisation

comprising of eight member states - Afghanistan,

Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar,

Nepal, and Pakistan

Mission

To enable sustainable and resilient mountain development

for improved and equitable livelihoods through knowledge

and regional cooperation.

• Water tower of Asia – 10 large river systems

• ~4000 sq km of snow and ice cover - the “Third Pole”

• Lifeline for more than 1.3 billion population

The Hindu Kush Himalayas

• Rich biological and cultural diversity

• ~ 1000 living languages; 4 global biodiversity hotspots;

60 eco-regions; 13 UNESCO heritage sites

Important biodiversity sites in the HKH Region

The Hindu Kush Himalayas

• Disaster hotspot

• Increased frequency of floods, landslides, earthquakes

The Hindu Kush Himalayas

Sustainable Development Challenges

• Rapid melting of glacier and loss of snow cover

• Increased frequency and magnitude of natural disasters

• Changes in vegetation cover/ forest resources

• Species migration and biodiversity loss

• Transboundary air pollution and black carbon

• Population dynamics and migration

• Many other socio-ecological pressures…

Cryosphere &

Water

Agriculture &

Food

Security

Air &

Atmosphere

Disaster &

Natural

Hazards

Ecosystem &

Biodiversity

Climate Change

Adaptation and

Mountain

Development

Addressing the Challenges

Integrated Data

Management

Spatial analysis

and modeling

Knowledge

products,

visualization and

dissemination

Capacity

building and

networking

ICIMOD-

Thematic Areas and Regional Programs

Livelihoods Ecosystem Services Water & Hazards Geospatial Solutions

Transboundary

Landscapes

River Basins

Adaptation to

Change

Cryosphere &

Atmosphere

Regional

Information

Systems

University

Consortium

Reg

ion

al

Pro

gra

ms

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N S

YS

TE

M F

RA

ME

WO

RK

In-situ / Field

Data

EO

Data

GIS

Data

Socio-

Economic

data

Data and

Information

Integration

Framework

Qualitative

Modeling

Quantitative

Modeling

Tools and

Methods

Spatial

Analysis

Spatial Analytical

Framework and

Modeling

Value added

products

Information

Systems

Knowledge Hub

Platform

Data , Metadata

and Map Services

Information and

Knowledge

products

Decision

Applications

Information Access

and Use

Capacity Building

and Training

Data sharing

Policy

Institutional

Strengthening

and

networking

Regional

databases

Scientific

tools,

methods and

models

Information

Systems and

Services

Regional

Capacity and

Network

Mainstreaming Earth Observation and Geospatial Technologies

Adaptation to change River basins TransectsCryopshere &

Atmosphere

Natural Resources Dynamics

- Mountain Perspective

Social – Climate Regulation Systems(Human-Livestock)

ForestsAgricultureGrasslandsSettlements

Natural Resources Dynamics

Water Security

Climate – SocialRegulation Systems(Livestock-Human)

Snow, WaterGlaciers

GrasslandsBarren lands

Food SecurityEnvironment

Security

Cryosphere Monitoring

• Snow cover monitoring• Weekly snow cover analysis

• Glacier monitoring• Baseline, Decadal changes

• Glacial lake monitoring • Potentially dangerous lakes

Snow Cover Monitoring

Glaciers Mapping and Inventory

• Second generation inventory of

glaciers and glacial lakes in the HKH

• Semi-automatic mapping techniques

• Standardized glacier database

(GLIMS, NSIDC)

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Ele

va

tio

n (m

as

l)

Area (sq. Km)

Koshi

Gandaki

Karnali

Mahakali

Decadal Changes in Glaciers

LCLUC and Carbon

Assessment and Monitoring

• Land cover change monitoring

• Canopy level change monitoring

• Biomass baseline and change

• Rangeland monitoring

• Fire monitoring

Augment/establish national and local

systems

Land Cover Change Databases

Forest carbon fluxes estimation

• Land cover change database 1990-2000-2010

• Landsat TM data

• FAO/LCCS System

• Image segmentation technique

• Multi source /tier accuracy assessment

• Web enabled delivery system

• Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan and Bangladesh completed; India and China data negotiated

• Forest Carbon flux – Nepal in progress

Nepal Land Cover, 2010

Decadal Land Cover Change

Forest Change

Proneness Modeling

• Multi parameter based model developed at 20x20 km

resolution

• Framework could be used with fine resolution data

• Most vulnerable and stable area delineation at high

resolution useful for monitoring and conservation

strategies (REDD, Biodiversity)

Multi Scale Biomass Modeling for

REDD MRV Framework

• REDD Project areas of ICIMOD

• Spatial biomass models tested, under

calibration :

• Type specific Seasonal multispectral

reflectance model (Landsat TM)

• Stand level canopy morphology model

(GeoEye)

• Species level canopy projected area

model (GeoEye)

• MRV Spatial framework being worked out

R2=0.7674

Landsat TM based Spatial

Biomass map (Decision tree model)

Parameter Variable Importance

Pragati , Janapragati and NibuwaterCommunity Forest

Canopy Level Change Monitoring

Tree Crown Size Analysis

2002

Tree Crown Size 2002

<50

50-100

100-150

150-200

200-250

>250

2009

Tree Crown Size 2009

<50

50-100

100-150

150-200

200-250

250-300

300-350

>350

Species Level Biomass Estimation

using Crown Projected Area (CPA)

R² = 0.653

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Calc

ula

ted

carb

on

Crown Projection Area

Non-linear relationship between CPA and Carbon of Other species

• Field level CPA – dbh relationship developed

• CPA delineated using HRS data

• dbh estimated using RS based CPA

• Sal and Non Sal Species Classification

• Biomass estimation using allometric equations

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

90

110

130

150

170

190

125-500 500-1000 1000-1500 1500-2000 2000-2500 2500-3000 3000-3500 3500-4000 4000-4500 >4500LOS

SOS

LINT

Rangeland Monitoring

- Upper Indus Basin

Monotonic trend of greenness in

rangelands (grasses/shrubs)

based on last 11 years

Indus basin decadal level patterns

of rangeland growth

Rangeland Monitoring

- Upper Indus Basin

11 y

ears

an

nu

al

ph

en

om

etr

ics

Timesat parameter

setup for

Savitzky-Golay

filter

11 years of 16-day

MODIS NDVI

11 years monthly

precipitation/

temperature

Pastoral Practices

Livestock Systems

Smoothed NDVI

curves

Start of season

Length of

Season

Season Max.

NDVI

Season Integ.

NDVI

Decision rules for

rangelands

identification

Decision rules for

ranking

rangelands

productivity

Rangelands

Productivity map

NDVI regression

on time

Intra-annual

vegetation trend

Relation b/w NDVI

and precipitation

Monotonic trend

map

Rangelands

productivity

calendarRangelands

calendar map

Integrated

Planning Support

Grazing Management Inputs, Upper Indus Basin

Forest Fire Monitoring - Nepal

Density of active fire incidents

(2000-2012)

Distribution of Fire Incidents in Nepal

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Eastern 76 34 88 231 227 475 82 127 490 391 150 250

Central 228 87 246 777 499 610 392 501 1060 773 573 658

Western 183 35 219 378 349 391 211 331 728 486 286 384

Mid-Western 376 133 944 744 810 244 245 932 1324 777 623 1200

Far-Western 184 59 451 401 475 203 215 751 612 417 224 653

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

No

. o

f fi

res

Distribution of Active Fire Incidents in Nepal

Fire Season in Nepal

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

40 42 44 46 48 50 52 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39

No

. o

f fi

res

Week

Weekly Fire Count Distribution of Nepal

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Max

Median

Crop Growth Monitoring

and Production Assessment

• Rice and Wheat crops - Terai Region, Nepal

• Preparation of fortnightly reference VI (250 m)

data using decadal historical database

• Spatial and temporal VI anomalies detection and

products

• Peak season VI based production modeling

• Integration with climate, ET and soil moisture

• Integrate crop practices, socio-economic data

to delineate Coherent Cropping Zones

Daily Products

• Fire

• Aerosol/Air quality

• Cloud

• Radiation

• Basin level run off

Annual Products

• LULC Change

• Vegetation Continuous

Fields

• Spatial Biomass

• Burnt area, emissions

Fortnightly/Seasonal

• Greenness Anomalies

• Rangeland Seasonality

• Snow cover

• Evapo-transpiration

• Basin level run off

Five Yearly Products

• LULC change hotspots

• Fire recurrence

• Snow Persistence

• Habitat Fragmentation

• Cropping trends

Monitoring - Potential Products

for Geospatial Tools

• Integrated approaches, tools and methodologies

• Long term monitoring initiatives – Transboundary Landscapes

(Kailash, Brahmaputra-Salween, Kangchenjunga, Karakoram-Pamir);

River basin programs – (Koshi, Indus basin)

Conclusion

• Better opportunities from Earth Observation technology

• Growing partnerships with national, regional and

international agencies

• Multilateral Framework of Cooperation

• Information and knowledge exchange

Conclusion

Thank you