monitoring the philippine social weather - anpor the philippine social weather ... sws exit poll vs....
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1
Title page
Cover
Monitoring the Philippine Social Weather
Gerardo A. Sandoval
Social Weather Stations, Philippines
Presentation for Asian Network for Public
Opinion Research (ANPOR), Bangkok, Thailand
26-29 November 2012
2
The SWS Mission
THE SWS MISSION:
Education: So eyes may see social conditions
Conscientization: So hearts may feel social problems
Analysis: So minds may understand their solutions
THE SWS MOTTO:
“Quot homines tot sententiae”
Respect for diversity
Founded in 1985 as a Private,
Non-stock, Non-profit Organization
3
AN ACADEMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE
AN ACADEMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE:
Social sciences, multidisciplinary
Politically non-partisan
Generates data on public issues
Publishes its findings
Banks all data for public research
Embargoes are strictly temporary
4
Professional Networks
PROFESSIONAL NETWORKS Philippine Social Science Council (PSSC), since 1986
Marketing and Opinion Research Society of the Philippines (MORES),
since 1986
International Social Survey Programme (ISSP), since 1990
American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), since 1993
World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), since 1993
Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR),
since 1994
Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), since 1995
World Values Survey (WVS), since 1995
Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, since 1996
International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies (ISQOLS), since 1998
East Asia Barometer, since 2001
Asian Barometer, since 2005
Asian Network for Public Opinion Research (ANPOR), since 2012
5
SELF-SUSTAINED OPERATIONS
SELF-SUSTAINED OPERATIONS:
Research and consultancy contracts
Survey subscriptions
Commissioned surveys
Research grants
Publications charges
Fellows’ membership fees
6
RP Map and Geographic data
• 4 major areas
• 17 regions
• 80 provinces
• 1,491 municipalities
• 143 cities
• 42,028 villages
• 301,000 km2
• 7,107 islands
• 2010 population = 92.34M
7
“Poverty has always been on the SWS research agenda”
POVERTY has always been
on the SWS research agenda.
SELF-RATED POVERTY
is SWS’s global innovation for
rapid-monitoring of poverty
over time.
8
SRP showcard
QUESTION ON SELF-RATED POVERTY
Question: Saan po ninyo ilalagay ang inyong pamilya sa kard na ito?
(Where would you place your family in this card?)
HINDI MAHIRAP
(Not poor)
MAHIRAP
(Poor)
MAHIRAP
(Poor)
HINDI MAHIRAP
(Not poor)
Languages Poor Not Poor
Tagalog Mahirap Hindi Mahirap
Cebuano Pobre Dili Pobre
Bicolano Pobre Bacong Pobre
Ilocano Napanglaw Saan nga Napanglaw
Ilonggo Imol Indi Imol
Pangasinense Mairap Aliwan Mairap
Waray Pobre Diri Pobre
Maguindanon Miskinan Dikena Miskinan
9
1983 1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2012
10
30
50
70
Chart: SELF-RATED POVERTY: FAMILIES WHO ARE “MAHIRAP”
SELF-RATED POVERTY: FAMILIES WHO ARE “MAHIRAP”,
PHILIPPINES, APR 1983 TO AUG 2012
Self-Rated Poverty Question: Where would you place your family in this card? (Not poor, On the line, Poor)
*Note: The NSCB figures, which compare income of the year to the official poverty line, are plotted in June of the year.
MARCOS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO
% o
f fa
milie
s
47%
NSCB “Unrefined” Poverty*
Self-Rated Poverty
NSCB “Refined” Poverty, 2-08-11
26%
21%
10
1986 * 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2012
10
30
50
70
90
SELF-RATED POVERTY: FAMILIES WHO ARE “MAHIRAP”,
BY LOCATION, JUL 1985 TO AUG 2012
Chart: SELF-RATED POVERTY: FAMILIES WHO ARE “MAHIRAP”, By Location
Self-Rated Poverty Question: Where would you place your family in this card? (Not poor, On the line, Poor)
MARCOS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO
NCR 35%
Visayas 63% Mindanao 57%
Bal. Luzon 38% % o
f fa
milie
s
11
“Statistics on hunger, SR food poverty, and the SRP are SWS innovations…”
Statistics on hunger, self-rated
food-poverty, and the self-rated
poverty line are SWS innovations.
12
1998 2001 2004 2010 2012
5
10
15
20
Note: Don’t Know and Refused responses are not shown. Q: Nitong nakaraang 3 buwan, nangyari po ba kahit minsan na ang inyong pamilya ay nakaranas ng gutom at wala kayong makain? KUNG OO: Nangyari po ba ‘yan ng MINSAN LAMANG, MGA ILANG BESES, MADALAS, o PALAGI?
DEGREE OF HUNGER IN HOUSEHOLDS,
PHILIPPINES: JUL 1998 TO AUG 2012
21.0%
18.0%
ESTRADA ARROYO AQUINO
3.0%
% o
f h
ou
seh
old
s
Total Hunger (Ave. 1998-2012 = 14.4%)
Severe (Ave. 1998-2012 = 3.5%)
Moderate (Ave. 1998-2012 = 11.0%)
13
“All SWS surveys are amenable…”
All SWS surveys are amenable to
SOCIAL CLASS-ANALYSIS, using
categories familiar to business
research. Social class is a
powerful discriminant of many
Social Weather conditions.
14
Criteria for eco-class 1
Criteria for eco-class 1
CRITERIA FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC
CLASSIFICATION OF HOUSEHOLDS
Households are classified into four groups as follows:
AB (Upper Class) - the most affluent group whose homes and lifestyles exude an obvious disregard for or lack of economizing.
C (Middle Class) - middle class households, whose homes and lifestyles reflect comfortable living and the capacity to indulge in a few luxuries.
D (Lower Class) - lower-middle class household who have some comfort and means but basically thrive on a hand-to-mouth existence.
E (Extremely Lower Class)- those who evidently face great difficulties in meeting their basic survival needs.
15
Criteria for eco-class 4
CRITERIA FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC
CLASSIFICATION (CONTINUED)
16
ESTRADA ARROYO AQUINO
* % Will be better minus % Will be worse.
Question. Sa darating na 12 buwan, ano sa palagay ninyo ang mangyayari sa ekonomiya ng Pilipinas? Masasabi ba ninyo na ito ay...[BUBUTI; KAPAREHO LANG; SASAMA; HINDI ALAM]
NET OPTIMISM* ON THE ECONOMY, BY CLASS,
SEP 1998 TO MAY 2012
2008
0 ABC
+11 D
+3 E
1998 2001 2004 2010 2012
+10
+30
+50
-10
-30
-50
17
“Gainers/losers are standard global indicators…”
Gainers/losers and
optimists/pessimists are standard
global indicators of trends in the
quality of life.
18
MARCOS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO
Question : Comparing your quality of life these days to how it was 12 months ago, would you say that your quality of life is ... (Better now, Same as before, Worse now) Gainers :"Better now" Losers: "Worse now“
CHANGE IN QUALITY OF LIFE OVER PAST 12 MONTHS,
APR 1983 TO AUG 2012
% o
f ad
ult
s
GAINERS
LOSERS
21%
28%
1983 1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2012
10
30
50
70
19
1984 1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2012
10
30
50
70
EXPECTED CHANGE IN QUALITY OF LIFE IN NEXT 12 MONTHS
EXPECTED CHANGE IN QUALITY OF LIFE IN NEXT 12 MONTHS,
APR 1984 TO AUG 2012
MARCOS CORY AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO BENIGNO AQUINO III
Question. In your opinion, what will be the quality of your life in the coming 12 months? Would you say that it ... (Will be better, Same, Will be worse)
Optimists : "Will be better“ Pessimists: "Will be worse"
% o
f a
du
lts
34%
7%
OPTIMISTS
PESSIMISTS
20
“Monitoring ratings of governance…
SWS surveys monitor ratings of
governance in the Philippines.
21
C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO
NET SATISFACTION RATINGS* OF PRESIDENTS,
PHILIPPINES, MAY 1986 TO AUGUST 2012
* Net ratings = % Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied correctly rounded. Survey Data: Social Weather Stations surveys.
+67
1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2012
+10
+30
+50
+70
-10
-30
-50
22
* Net figures (% Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied) correctly rounded.
NET* SATISFACTION WITH GENERAL PERFORMANCE
OF THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION, FEB 1989 – AUG 2012
C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO
1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2012
+10
+30
+50
+70
-10
-30
-50
+62
Net*
Satisfaction
23
Overall performance rating +56 +46 +44 +62
Helping the victims of disasters +58 +50 +73
Helping the poor +51 +44 +35 +59
Promoting welfare of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) +46 +49 +39 +54
Foreign relations +43 +46 +33 +51
Defending the country's territorial rights +35 +50
Distributing lands to deserving tillers under land reform +34 +45
Transparency in providing info about gov't activities +27 +42 +44
Fighting terrorism +27 +33 +19 +43
Providing jobs -17 (Mar06) +43
Fighting crimes +34 +31 +16 +42
Promoting foreign investments in our country 27 +33 +42
Eradicating graft and corruption +15 +17 +12 +40
Reconciliation with Muslim rebels +19 +22 +14 +33
Reconciliation with Communist rebels +20 +25 + 9 +31
Ensuring that no family will be hungry + 9 +10 + 1 +26
Fighting inflation + 8 0 - 6 +19
Ensuring that oil firms don’t take advantage of oil prices - 3 - 3 -12 +13
Resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice -18 -17 -16 - 4
* Net figures (% Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied) correctly rounded.
Dec11 Mar12 May12 Aug12
NET* SATISFACTION WITH THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION ON
SPECIFIC ISSUES, DEC 2011 – AUG 2012
Moderate
Neutral
Good
Very
good
Excellent
24
“Monitoring ratings of governance…
SWS conducts pre-election and
exits polls.
25
Ex-98, President (page 1 of 2)
Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count May 11, 1998 National Elections
(page 1 of 2)
Comelec Count* SWS Exit Poll**
* COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998
** Sample Size = 5,538; Error Margin = ±1.3% (top position); excludes Marcos
26
Ex-98, President (page 2 of 2)
Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count May 11, 1998 National Elections
(page 2 of 2)
* COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998
** Sample Size = 5,538; Error Margin = ±1.3% (top position); excludes Marcos
Comelec Count* SWS Exit Poll**
27
ex-98, Vice-President (page 1 of 2)
* COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998.
** Sample size= 5,298; error margin= ±1.4% (top position).
Vice-Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count May 11, 1998 National Elections
(page 1 of 2) Comelec Count* SWS Exit Poll**
28
ex-98, Vice-President (page 2 of 2)
* COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998.
** Sample size= 5,298; error margin= ±1.4% (top position).
Vice-Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count May 11, 1998 National Elections
(page 2 of 2)
Comelec Count* SWS Exit Poll**
29
May 14, 2001 Senatorial Elections (page 1 of 2)
COMPARING OFFICIAL RESULTS WITH SWS EXIT POLL May 14, 2001 Senatorial Elections
(page 1 of 2)
58.7%
42.5%
41.9%
40.9%
40.7%
40.7%
40.5%
39.7%
39.1%
38.1%
38.1%
37.9%
37.8%
35%
34.8%
31.5%
29.5%
26.8%
26%
24.6%
24.3%
58.6%
40%
39.2%
37.6%
39.5%
37.6%
37.1%
38.1%
36.6%
34.8%
34.5%
35.2%
34.5%
32.1%
31.1%
26.4%
26.6%
22.7%
23%
22.2%
21.5%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
De Castro
Flavier
Osmeña
Drilon
Arroyo
Magsaysay
Villar
Pangilinan
Angara
Lacson
Ejercito Estrada
Recto
Honasan
Enrile
Defensor-Santiago
Puno
Tañada
Mercado
Pagdanganan
Herrera
Monsod
COMELEC RESULTS
As of August 30, 2001
SWS EXIT POLL
May 15, 2001 Broadcast
58.7%
42.5%
41.9%
40.9%
40.7%
40.7%
40.5%
39.7%
39.1%
38.1%
38.1%
37.9%
37.8%
35%
34.8%
31.5%
29.5%
26.8%
26%
24.6%
24.3%
58.6%
40%
39.2%
37.6%
39.5%
37.6%
37.1%
38.1%
36.6%
34.8%
34.5%
35.2%
34.5%
32.1%
31.1%
26.4%
26.6%
22.7%
23%
22.2%
21.5%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
De Castro
Flavier
Osmeña
Drilon
Arroyo
Magsaysay
Villar
Pangilinan
Angara
Lacson
Ejercito Estrada
Recto
Honasan
Enrile
Defensor-Santiago
Puno
Tañada
Mercado
Pagdanganan
Herrera
Monsod
COMELEC RESULTS
As of August 30, 2001
SWS EXIT POLL
May 15, 2001 Broadcast
58.7%
42.5%
41.9%
40.9%
40.7%
40.7%
40.5%
39.7%
39.1%
38.1%
38.1%
37.9%
37.8%
35%
34.8%
31.5%
29.5%
26.8%
26%
24.6%
24.3%
58.6%
40%
39.2%
37.6%
39.5%
37.6%
37.1%
38.1%
36.6%
34.8%
34.5%
35.2%
34.5%
32.1%
31.1%
26.4%
26.6%
22.7%
23%
22.2%
21.5%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
De Castro
Flavier
Osmeña
Drilon
Arroyo
Magsaysay
Villar
Pangilinan
Angara
Lacson
Ejercito Estrada
Recto
Honasan
Enrile
Defensor-Santiago
Puno
Tañada
Mercado
Pagdanganan
Herrera
Monsod
COMELEC RESULTS
As of August 30, 2001
SWS EXIT POLL
May 15, 2001 Broadcast
30
May 14, 2001 Senatorial Elections (page 2 of 2)
58.7%
42.5%
41.9%
40.9%
40.7%
40.7%
40.5%
39.7%
39.1%
38.1%
38.1%
37.9%
37.8%
35%
34.8%
31.5%
29.5%
26.8%
26%
24.6%
24.3%
58.6%
40%
39.2%
37.6%
39.5%
37.6%
37.1%
38.1%
36.6%
34.8%
34.5%
35.2%
34.5%
32.1%
31.1%
26.4%
26.6%
22.7%
23%
22.2%
21.5%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
De Castro
Flavier
Osmeña
Drilon
Arroyo
Magsaysay
Villar
Pangilinan
Angara
Lacson
Ejercito Estrada
Recto
Honasan
Enrile
Defensor-Santiago
Puno
Tañada
Mercado
Pagdanganan
Herrera
Monsod
COMELEC RESULTS
As of August 30, 2001
SWS EXIT POLL
May 15, 2001 Broadcast
COMPARING OFFICIAL RESULTS WITH SWS EXIT POLL May 14, 2001 Senatorial Elections
(page 2 of 2)
The SWS 2010 Election Surveys 31
Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May May 4-8 5-10 27-28 21-24 24-28 19-22 28-30 16-19 2-3 10 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010
Aquino III
Villar
Estrada
Teodoro
Gordon
Villanueva
THE 2010 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
* * * * * * * 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Estrada
Villar
The SWS 2010 Election Surveys 32
•For the first time in Philippine history, a statistical
sample of voters was polled only 50+ meters away
from Voting Centers (VCs).
•From 802 randomly chosen exit poll VCs, SWS
interviewed an unprecedentedly massive total of
52,573 voters.
•The exit poll’s average absolute differences from
Comelec percentages were only 0.401 in the P-
count and 0.399 in the VP-count.
•In the senatorial count, the correlation of exit poll
ranks with Comelec ranks was .992.
THE HISTORIC TV5/SWS 2010 EXIT POLL
The SWS 2010 Election Surveys 33
PRESIDENTIAL VOTES: TV5-SWS EXIT POLL VS. FINAL
OFFICIAL COMELEC TALLY, PHILIPPINES, MAY 10, 2010
42.08
26.25
15.42
11.33
3.12
1.39
0.15
0.13
43.34
26.38
14.73
10.25
3.4
1.4
AQUINO
ESTRADA
VILLAR
TEODORO
VILANUEVA
GORDON
PERLAS
MADRIGAL
DE LOS REYES
COMELEC Count* TV5-SWS Exit Poll**
0.13
0.23 0.12
0.15
* Based on 238 COCs, June 8, 2010, 3:17 pm
** Sample size: 52,573
AVE. ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE: 0.401
The SWS 2010 Election Surveys 34
VICE-PRESIDENTIAL VOTES: TV5-SWS EXIT POLL VS. FINAL
OFFICIAL COMELEC TALLY, PHILIPPINES, MAY 10, 2010
* Based on 238 COCs, June 8, 2010, 3:17 pm
** Sample size: 52,573
41.65
39.58
12.21
2.89
2.3
1.04
0.18
0.15
42.52
39.17
11.51
2.92
1.81
1.43
0.2
0.43
BINAY
ROXAS
LEGARDA
FERNANDO
MANZANO
YASAY
SONZA
CHIPECO
COMELEC Count* TV5-SWS Exit Poll**
AVE. ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE: 0.399
35
SWS DATA LIBRARY
SWS DATA LIBRARY
Only one of its kind in Southeast Asia
Specialized on public opinion and
social survey research
36
SWS DATA BANK
SWS DATA BANK:
Archives all SWS survey datasets, as
well as selected foreign surveys
As of August 2012, the collection has
grown to 433 (214 National, 219
Subnational) Philippine datasets
encompassing 247,804 interviews on
66,885 survey questions and over
200 foreign datasets
37
www.sws.org.ph
#52 Malingap Street,
Sikatuna Village, Quezon City
Tels: 926-4308, 924-4456, 924-4458, 924-4465
E-mail: [email protected]