monsoon and prices of commodities

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International Referred Research Journal ISSN-0975-3486 VOL. - ISSUE- 8 RNI : RAJBIL/ 2009/30097

RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION1

INTRODUCTION- -INDIA is a DEVELOPING COUNTRY according toHuman Development Index[134th rank ], where most of the population is engage in agriculture. In IndiaAgriculture depends upon monsoon. The monsoonword is derived from ARABIC wordMOUSIM.MONSOON IS SEASONAL WIND, whichrun’s continuously month together. At first use of monsoon word has been used with reference to rainfallof seasonal wind by INDIA, PAKISTAN,BANGLADESH AND OTHER NABOURINGCOUNTRIES FROM INDIAN AND ARABIC OCEAN.As per the information available, the beginning of ASIAN MONSOON is 5 CRORES YEARS AGO, when

the Tibetan plateau arose after the collision of INDIANand ASIAN landscape. Every year in India 80%, of rainfalls occurring through south west summermonsoon. This monsoon winds are effective in betweenJUNE to SEPTEMBER, LOW PRESSURE area arecreated in heated NORTHEN INDIA, CENTRAL INDIA,THAR DESERT &near about places. The wind comesfrom INDIAN OCEAN AND goes HIGHER UPTOHIMALAYA & colloid with the mountain and thenRAINFALLS. According to geographical structures of

Research Paper—Management

May, 2010

Referred By— 1. Dr. L.N. Verma 2. Dr. G.K. Deshhmukh

A B S T R A C T

It is amazing that India had been facing a severe drought since the past 2/3 centuries but yet there had been no remedy prepared by government so far. In this year too, 278 districts of the 11 states of the nationhave been declared as drought affected. In different districts of the nation it has been observed that therain fall is lower than the expectation. In context to the rain fall 29% of the total rain fall has been noted yet. Due to drought condition people are facing the severe price hike in all necessary commodities dueto heavy speculation. due to weaker monsoon the price of different commodities like CHANA[40-50 %],pulses(61%), red chilies(26%),potato(106%),sugar(52%) and vegetables and fruits are being costlier,which is beyond the reach of consumers.

INDIAN sub continent there are 2 branches of monsoon-i.e. first is Bay of Bengal and other is Arabian sea,through which monsoon occurs in India [period isJUNE to SEPTEMBER] . In past few years MONSOONdid not BREAK properly, all it‘s happens due to EL-NINO EFFECT .As the history says in the YEAR 1770the BENGAL FACED severe, devastating &acutedrought. At that time agro-commodities crops alsoaffected badly and had been highly hiked. If monsoonbreaks in time and rainfall is sufficient then good resultscome out and on the other hands when rain fall isinsufficient then AGRICULTURE and its ALLIEDsectors will not do well and hence its impacts onINDIAN ECONOMY so badly, consequently

DROUGHTS occur. The scientists have classified theDROUGHTS on Indian background in 3 categories i.e.1- seasonal drought, 2-hydrological drought& 3-agro-related droughts. The AGRO BASED COMMODITIESget highly affected due to weaker monsoon. India haveadopted a new economic policy since1991.The Indianeconomic growth has been in increasing order, ascompared to before1991.Agriculture is one of the majorfactor which is contributing a GOOD DEAL of growthin the INDIAN ECONOMY. People will be NO CASH in

IMPACT OF WEAKER MONSOON ON

COMMODITY'S PRICES AND ECONOMY

* Asstt. prof. Dept. of management Pt. H.S. Smriti Mahavidyalaya Raipur

* Ashok Kumar Jha ** Dr. Shail Prabha Kosta

** Asstt.Prof. Dept. of Economics, HitaranniMahila Mahavidyalaya, Jabalpur




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hands and hence consumption will reduce and it willhave ADVERSE effect on ECONOMY and GROWTHRATE will go down.OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY- (1) To find out theimpact of weaker monsoon on country’s economy. (2)To find out the causes and effect of weaker monsoonon growth rate. (3) To find out the impact of weakermonsoon on commodity’s prices.METHODOLOGY- COLLECTION OF DATA- Thestudy is based on SECONDARY DATA. SOURCES OFDATA - The data were collected from the variousjournals, magazines, newspapers and related websites.

METHODS of ANALYSIS - The methods of analysisfor this research are CONTENT ANALYSIS.AREA OF STUDY - Impact of weaker monsoon isseen not only in Chhattisgarh But also the Rest partsof the country.OCCURRENCE OF DROUGHT- IN INDIA-DROUGHT soccur when monsoon is weaker andRAINFALL is LEAST .Nation faces so many times thisdrought condition, BUT BENGAL DROUGHT ISACCUTE, MISERABLE and HARMFUL .At the presenttime NATION FACING THE DROUGHTS in 278DISTRICS of 11 STATES [on dated, 16/10/09], that is3/4 part of the COUNTRY [278 DISTRICS out of 604DISTRICS] affected. Some of the NOTED DROUGHTS

are LISTED BELOW- See Table No. 1In Chhattisgarh -in Chhattisgarh 66 TAHSILOF

DOZENS OF districts is facing the DROUGHT situationat present, in 7 DISTRICS as KABIRDHAM,SARGUJA,KORIA, KORBA ,RAJNANDGAON, BIJAPUR ANDNARAYANPUR DISTRICS of all TAHSIL affectedwith DROUGHTS. In other DISTRICS LIKE –See TableNo. 2 In above table, some TALUKA/TAHSIL of theDISTRICS is drought affected. IMPACT OF WEAKERMONSOON ON COMMODITY’S PRICThe monsoon, which hasn’t brought enough rain tomost part of the country, is casting a LONG SHADOW

ON COMMODITY PRICES. The prices of key foodarticles like pulses, sugar, chana, potato, and red chilieshave been GOING UP. CHANA, delivered in DelhiMarket, has spurted up by 14.6% to Rs. 2,520 quintalin the SPOT MARKETS. Yellow peas have jumped byabout 20%.‘’Prices of pulses have gone up because of the late KHARIF CROP. Pulses production had comedown to 2.37 million tons from 3.08 million tons lastyear. This year also fall in production, due to poormonsoon Potato prices are up 106%.since June and

red chilies have become dearer by 26%.on spotexchanges during the period PULSES LIKE ARHAR iscostlier up to 61%.all its due to weaker monsoon.IMPACT OF WEAKER MONSOON ON GROWTHRATE- Experts are assigning the impact of droughtover growth rate. The experts were estimated thatgrowth rate in present year is 6.3% but due to droughtthe rate of growth is reduce5.5%. Due to least rainfallin country only 40% SOWN has been done by farmers.it is clearly indicates that reduced in demand on allcommodities from RURAL AREAs.IMPACT OF WEAKER MONSOON ON POWER

GENERATION- Country may face the serious problemof power generation due to drought. Due to minimumrainfall the ANICATES and dames not filled up withtheir full capacity and it’s directly affected theproduction of HYDRO ELETRIC POWER. IN RURALAREAS will be badly affected by this situation ,thusin this connection GOVERNMENT MENTLY PREPAREfor awarding subsidy on DISEAL for overcome thissituation .economic growth is suffer due to power crisisand its due to weaker monsoon.- FINDINGS AND RESULTS-Every year 16% parts of the country faces the drought. n At present 68% sowingareas of country face the drought or drought likecondition. n In 33% area of the country come under

below quantity of RAINFALL 750milimeter, and hencein this place may chance of droughts. nThere will bedownfall in production and will be seen decrease indemand of necessary commodities in rural areasnAccording to meteorological department propoundingin the month of June it was declared that in country28subdivision out of 38 subdivision did not yet thesufficient rainfall occur. It is not a good indication forformers. n According to DIRECTOR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT,SHRI B.P. YADAV feltdoubt that when we seen the past trends of monsoonyear 2009 is also a EL-NINO year, like 2004 and itsimpacts on cereals production is sure because 65% of

KHARIF CROP totally depends upon MONSOON.nWhen least quantity of cereals, PULSES AND OILCONTAINED PRODUCTS REACHED IN grain market[Mondi]. Then the prices of all commodities are costlieras compared to previous year. n In drought conditionthere is no CASH in HANDS of PEOPLERESULTANTLY, decreases in consumption and itsADVERSE impacts on ECONOMY and finally theGROWTH RATE decreases. n PULSES hikes up to 60-70%, CEREALS UPTO 20 -30 %, vegetable and fruits




RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION3

TABLE NO-01 [DROUGHT INTENSITY TABLE

S.No Years Intensity of Drought

01 1770 In Bengal Actue, Miserable & harmful.

02 1876 Miserable & harmful



05 1972 Severe draught occurred

06 1979 Wide areas cover under Severe droughts.

07 1987 Severe drought occurred

08 2009 3/4 Part [ 278 Districts] affected it will be

the largest drought of the millennium.

SOURCE-NAI DUNIA paper

TABLE NO.3 (FEEL THE PINCH TABLE)DATE &PRICE CHANA POTATO RED CHILI SUGAR

1 JUNE 2121 856 4750 24506 JULY 2198 1029 5516 275013 JULY 2520 1049 5439 29806 AGUST 2560 1250 5500 315030 SEPT 2600 1450 5640 32504 NOVE 2850 1600 5870 365020 NOVE 3150 1750 6000 3750% CHANGE 49% 106% 26% 52% Sources -Times of india,Navbhrat, Bhasker busi.line papers.

TABLE NO.04ARTICLE/COMMODITY JUNE 2009 NOV. 2009 % CHANGE

NAME PRICE IN RS. PRICE RS/KG.

ARHAR PULSES 55 90 61%RICE 18 22 23%GROUND NUT OIL 80 90 11%

Table No. 2 [ Districst /Taluka Affeted Table]

S.N. Name of Affected Tahsil/ Talukas

Distric

01 Bilaspur Lormi, Marwahi& Pendraroad.

02 Jaspur Bagicha, Pathalgaon,

03 Kanker Kanker, Narayanpur, Antagarh& Durgkonda

04 Dantewada Dantewada, Konta, Gedum, Katekalyan, Kuwa Konda.

05 Durg Doundilohara, Navagarh, Doudi, Thankmaiya & Saja

Source-NAIDUNIA PAPER

are up to 25 % to50% costlier due to poor monsoon. n

Commodities like RED CHILIES hike26%, SUGAR UPTO 52% and POTATOup to 106% costlier due to weakermonsoon.n Most of the food articles pricecostlier up to 50% due to poor monsoon.n VISUAL ATLAS:-n Thescientists have prepared an ATLASwhich will show the condition of rainfall in different part of the world.According to them they are of thefirmed opinion that until the nextcentury the rainfall can be estimated

IN RS/100KG

through this ATLAS and in thisconnection Dr. Michael Roderick has ascertained that where willrainfall occurs and where will thedroughts occurs in different partsof the globe,. This ATLAS isprepared by the international teamled by the national university of Australia.CONCLUSION- INDIA is a AGRICULTURE

country and agriculture more or lessdepends upon the monsoon, Whenthe monsoon is weaker the droughtsoccur often .when the drought occurthe COMMODITIES COST becomeCOSTLIER due to decreases inPRODUCTION .The cost of COMMODITIES GO HIRE an dbeyond the range of consumer thedemand of commodities by theconsumer also decreases growthrate shown the downward trendsand thus the economy affected.

News papers, books & magazine- Dainik bhasker dated [30/07/09, 01/08/09, 19/08/09, 01/09/09 Dainik navbharatdated [03/07/09, 01/10/09, 15/10/09, 16/10/09, 30/10/09,] Dainik naidunia dated [25/08/09, 30/08/09, 18/12/09]TheTimes of India dated [09/07/09] DUTT & SUNDRAM - INDIAN ECONOMY Mishra Jagdishnarayan –Bhartiya arthvayastha -kitab mahal new delhi [2001] ECONOMY INDIA MAGAZINE Financial newspapers& website Business Bhasker-dated [01/06/09, 04/11/09, 20/11/09] Business line -dated [31/10/09] The Economictimes- www.ncdex.com www.bhasker.com www.toi.org www.google.com www.yohoo.com

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monsoon and prices of commodities

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