monte carlo analysis techniques applied to airplane...
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Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING COMMERCIAL AIRPLANES
Monte Carlo Analysis Techniques Applied to Airplane PerformanceDavid Rynes | Boeing Commercial AirplanesJuly 2014
Need new image of 737 MAX
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Mathematics
Physics
Statistics
Atmospheric Sciences
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RangePayload Fuel Use Time
Can you carry this much, that far, under these conditions?
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Single Point Analysis
Monte Carlo Simulation
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Single Point Analysis
20th
CenturyLimited
View
Hides Operational
Realities
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Single Point Analysis
20th
CenturyLimited
View
Hides Operational
Realities
Monte Carlo Simulation
21st
CenturyHolistic
View
Unveils Operational
Realities
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Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Simulation
Range
Route
Profitability
Operational Reality
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Range: Where can we go?
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Range: Where can we go?
Temperature
COLD HOT
Pressure Altitude
LOW HIGH
Winds
LOW HIGH
Payload Capacity
EMPTY FULL
Single Point Analysis
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Range: Where can we go?
Temperature
COLD HOT
Pressure Altitude
LOW HIGH
Winds
LOW HIGH
Payload Capacity
EMPTY FULL
Single Point Analysis
Temperature
COLD HOT
Pressure Altitude
LOW HIGH
Winds
LOW HIGH
Payload Capacity
EMPTY FULL
DUBAI
FrankfurtZurich
Sarajevo
Misurata
Dar Es Salaam
Zanzibar
Yangon
Sylhet
Chongqing
NovosibirskMoscow
Benghazi
BudapestVenice
Warsaw
Copenhagen
Minsk
ThessalonikiSofia
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. 11
Range: Where can we go?
Temperature
COLD HOT
Pressure Altitude
LOW HIGH
Winds
LOW HIGH
Payload Capacity
EMPTY FULL
Single Point Analysis
Temperature
COLD HOT
Pressure Altitude
LOW HIGH
Winds
LOW HIGH
Payload Capacity
EMPTY FULL
DUBAI
FrankfurtZurich
Sarajevo
Misurata
Dar Es Salaam
Zanzibar
Yangon
Sylhet
Chongqing
NovosibirskMoscow
Benghazi
BudapestVenice
Warsaw
Copenhagen
Minsk
ThessalonikiSofia
Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. 12
Range: Where can we go?
Monte Carlo Simulation
Range
Pressure Altitude
LOW HIGH
Runway Conditions
DRY WET
Temperature
COLD HOT
Winds
LOW HIGH
EMPTY FULL
Payload Capacity
Time
0 24
Take-offWeight
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Monte Carlo Simulation
Range
Take-offWeight
Range: Where can we go?
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DUBAI
Sarajevo
Misurata
Dar Es Salaam
Zanzibar
Yangon
Sylhet
Chongqing
Moscow
Benghazi
Budapest
WarsawMinsk
ThessalonikiSofia
FrankfurtZurich
CopenhagenNovosibirsk
Venice
Pressure Altitude
LOW HIGH
Runway Conditions
DRY WET
Temperature
COLD HOT
Winds
LOW HIGH
EMPTY FULL
Payload Capacity
Time
0 24
Pressure Altitude
LOW HIGH
Runway Conditions
DRY WET
Temperature
COLD HOT
Winds
LOW HIGH
EMPTY FULL
Payload Capacity
Time
0 24
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Better
0% 100%
Worse
Probability
Distance (nm) or Max Takeoff
Weight (kg)
LEAP – 1B28B1LEAP – 1B28
Range: Where can we go?
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Range at one set of environmental parameters
Ranges or MTOWs at distribution of
environmental parameters
Range: Where can we go?
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Route: How much can we carry?
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Temperature
COLD HOT
Pressure Altitude
LOW HIGH
Winds
LOW HIGH
Payload Capacity
EMPTY FULL
Route: How much can we carry?
Single Point Analysis
Range
SHORT LONG
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Route: How much can we carry?
June
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
Airport take-off weight
85,130 kg
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Monte Carlo Simulation
Pressure Altitude
LOW HIGH
Runway Conditions
DRY WET
Temperature
COLD HOT
Winds
LOW HIGH
Range
SHORT LONG
Payload Capacity
EMPTY FULL
Time
0 24
Route: How much can we carry?
Payload Distribution
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Route: How much can we carry?
Better
0% 100%
Worse
Probability
Payload (kg)
27,500
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
DRY/WET
DRY
WET
Full Passengers
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Better
0% 100%
Worse
Probability
Constrained Passenger
Demand
27,500
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
DRY/WET
DRY
WET
Full Passengers
Route: How much can we carry?
213 + 0.4t
213 + 2.8t100% LF
0%
213 + 2.7t100% LF
207 pax
212.3 + 2.0t99.7% LF
213 + 0.5t
213 + 2.3t100% LF
0%
213 + 2.2t100% LF
206 pax
211.3 + 1.2t99.2% LF
Winter
Dry Dry/Wet Wet
Dry Dry/Wet Wet
Summer
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Route: How much can we carry?
Payload at <5% of environmental parameters
Payload at 100% of environmental parameters
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Profitability: How can we maximize?
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Payload Capacity
Profitability: How can we maximize?
Temperature
COLD HOT
Pressure Altitude
LOW HIGH
Winds
LOW HIGH
EMPTY FULL
Single Point Analysis
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Profitability: How can we maximize?
June
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
Airplane capability at full passengers
$XXX
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Profitability: How can we maximize?
Monte Carlo Simulation
Pressure Altitude
LOW HIGH
Runway Conditions
DRY WET
Temperature
COLD HOT
Winds
LOW HIGH
Range
SHORT LONG
EMPTY FULL
Time
0 24
Passenger Distribution
Payload Capacity
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Profitability: How can we maximize?
Better
0% 100%
Worse
Probability
Constrained Passenger
Demand Distribution/Passengers
Carried
400
200
250
300
350
Constrained Passenger Demand
Distribution
Passengers Carried
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Single Point Analysis Monte Carlo Simulation
Payload at <5% of environmental parameters
Payload at 100% of environmental parameters
Range at one set of environmental parameters
Ranges at distribution of environmental parameters
Understanding of risks and increased profitability potential
Unknown risks and missed profit opportunities