monthly market overview - wordpress.com€¦ · 09/08/2016 · bulker values through august 2016...
TRANSCRIPT
MONTHLY MARKET OVERVIEW August 2016
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SUMMARYOF CONTENT
• Value analysis
• Total second hand S&P activity
• Newbuilding activity
• Demolition activity
• Charter rate analysis
BULKER VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016
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Modern bulkers have strengthened throughout August.
BULKERS The table below shows the monthly % change for each bulker vessel type, built
from 2001-2016 for the month of August 2016.
180k
180k
180k
180k
180k
180k
180k
180k
180k
180k
180k
180k
180k
175k
175k
175k
3.20%
2.00%
1.10%
0.30%
-0.10%
-0.30%
-0.20%
0.10%
0.50%
1.20%
2.10%
3.10%
4.20%
4.90%
6.20%
4.50%
CAPE
80k
80k
80k
80k
80k
80k
80k
80k
80k
75k
75k
75k
75k
75k
75k
75k
5.80%
5.40%
4.70%
3.80%
2.80%
1.70%
0.60%
-0.70%
-1.90%
-3.10%
-4.30%
-5.30%
-6.50%
-7.50%
-8.70%
-9.40%
PMAX
60k
60k
60k
60k
60k
60k
55k
55k
55k
55k
55k
55k
55k
50k
50k
50k
0.80%
0.10%
-0.36%
-0.50%
-0.40%
-0.10%
0.60%
1.40%
2.50%
3.80%
5.10%
6.60%
8.50%
10.30%
12.00%
14.40%
SUPRA
2016
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
BUILT
30k
30k
30k
30k
30k
30k
30k
30k
30k
30k
30k
30k
30k
30k
30k
30k
17.60%
15.40%
13.20%
11.00%
9.00%
6.90%
5.20%
3.60%
2.30%
1.10%
0.40%
0.00%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.80%
1.50%
HANDY
BULKER VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016
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Panamax Panamax values have firmed for modern tonnage and softened for older tonnage.
12 sales having been concluded for August.
The highest impact was the resale of SS220 Hull and SS221 Hull (81,600 dwt, 2016 blt,
Tsuneishi Zhoushan) for usd 22 mil each with VV valuing at usd 19.65 mil each.
Older tonnage has seen a softening in value, confirmed by the sale of the Yangtze
(73,500 dwt, 2001 blt, Tsuneishi) for usd 3.4 mil and VV valuing the vessel the day before
sale at usd 4.26 mil.
Supramax Supramax values have firmed for older tonnage and have been stable to soft for modern
tonnage.
19 sales were concluded for the month of August.
The Nemtas 1 (50,100 dwt, 2001 blt, Mitsui Ichihara) was sold by Nemtas Nemrut Liman for
usd 4.4 mil with VV valuing the day before sale at usd 3.88 mil.
For modern tonnage, the 61,000 dwt resale from Dalian Cosco KHI sold for usd 18.3 mil
with VV valuing the day before sale at usd 17.8 mil.
Handy Modern handy values have firmed.
11 sales were concluded for August.
Contributing to modern tonnage firming was the Don Mariano (37,900 dwt, 2016 blt, Avic
Weihai) sold at usd 14.5 mil and VV valuing the vessel at usd 10.5 mil the day before sale.
Capesize Capesize values have firmed.
6 capesize sales have been concluded over August.
The sale of the Mustang (180,000 dwt, 2016 blt, New Times Shipping) sold for usd 32.5 mil,
with the VV value on the day before sale being usd 28.5 mil.
TANKER VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016
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Tanker values have continued to fall throughout August acrossall vessel types.
2016
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
BUILT VLCC SUEZ AFRA LR1 MR
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.40%
-0.60%
-1.80%
-2.20%
-2.70%
-3.20%
-3.80%
-4.40%
-5.00%
-5.60%
-6.70%
-7.40%
-8.20%
-9.30%
-1.50%
-1.60%
-1.60%
-1.60%
-1.50%
-1.40%
-1.20%
-1.10%
-1.00%
-0.90%
-0.70%
-0.90%
-0.80%
-0.90%
-0.90%
-0.90%
320k
320k
320k
320k
310k
310k
310k
310k
310k
310k
310k
310k
305k
305k
305k
300k
-3.40%
-3.50%
-3.60%
-4.00%
-4.40%
-4.90%
-5.50%
-6.10%
-6.80%
-7.40%
-8.00%
-8.50%
-9.20%
-9.50%
-9.60%
-9.50%
160k
160k
160k
160k
160k
160k
160k
160k
160k
160k
160k
160k
155k
155k
155k
155k
-3.20%
-3.30%
-3.30%
-3.30%
-3.30%
-3.30%
-3.20%
-3.20%
-3.10%
-3.00%
-2.90%
-2.80%
-2.70%
-2.50%
-2.40%
-2.30%
110k
110k
110k
110k
110k
110k
110k
110k
110k
110k
110k
110k
105k
105k
105k
105k
-3.30%
-3.30%
-3.40%
-3.30%
-3.30%
-3.30%
-3.20%
-3.20%
-3.10%
-3.00%
-2.90%
-2.80%
-2.70%
-2.50%
-2.40%
-2.30%
75k
75k
75k
75k
75k
75k
75k
75k
75k
75k
70k
70k
70k
70k
70k
70k
50k
50k
50k
50k
50k
50k
50k
50k
50k
50k
45k
45k
45k
45k
45k
45k
TANKERS The table below shows the monthly % change for each tanker vessel type, built
from 2001-2016 for the month of August 2016.
TANKER VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016
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VLCC VLCC values have softened, with older tonnage affected the most.
2 sales have been concluded for August.
The sale of Kaminesan (303,900 dwt, 2003 blt, Universal) sold at usd 28.3 mil with VV
valuing at usd 32.4 mil, a significant reduction.
Suezmax Suezmax have softened, with older tonnage affected the most.
No sales have taken place this month, softening due to falling charter rates.
Aframax Aframax and LR2s have shown a consistent softening in values throughout August.
The sale of the Isis (116,100 dwt ,2007 blt, Universal) failed in July 2016 and was resold on
August 10th by Global United Shipping Singapore to Atlas Maritime. The vessel sold for
usd 24.7 mil.
MR MR values have softened throughout the month.
7 sales have been concluded for the month of August in the handy sector.
Two MR2 sisters, the Pacific Marchioness (46,700 dwt, 2010 blt, Hyundai Mipo) and the
Pacific Duchess (46,700 dwt, 2009 blt, Hyundai Mipo) have been sold en bloc at
usd 22.3 mil and usd 20.7 mil respectively. VV valuing the day before sale for usd 22.49 mil
and usd 20.97 mil respectively. The sale includes a bareboat to ENOC.
CONTAINER VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016
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Container values have weakened across all vessel types.
2016
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
BUILT
-2.70%
-2.80%
-3.10%
-3.60%
-4.10%
-4.90%
-5.70%
-6.60%
-7.70%
-8.80%
-9.90%
11.00%
12.20%
13.30%
14.50%
15.60%
7000
7000
7000
7000
7000
7000
7000
7000
7000
7000
7000
7000
7000
6500
6500
6500
-3.20%
-3.30%
-3.60%
-4.00%
-4.60%
-5.30%
-6.20%
-7.10%
-8.10%
-9.20%
10.30%
11.50%
12.50%
-9.80%
1.70%
4.40%
4250
4250
4250
4250
4250
4250
4250
4250
4250
4250
4250
4250
4250
4000
4000
4000
-4.50%
-5.10%
-5.70%
-6.30%
-6.90%
-7.30%
-7.50%
-7.60%
-7.20%
-6.90%
-6.20%
-5.40%
-4.30%
-3.00%
-1.30%
0.30%
1400
1400
1400
1400
1400
1400
1400
1400
1400
1400
1400
1400
1400
1400
1400
1400
-1.60%
-1.60%
-1.30%
-1.00%
-0.70%
-0.30%
-0.10%
-0.30%
-0.70%
-1.70%
-3.10%
-5.00%
-7.40%
-9.90%
12.80%
-15.7%
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
POST PMAX PMAX HANDY FMAX
CONTAINERS The table below shows the monthly % change for each container vessel type,
built from 2001-2016 for the month of August 2016.
CONTAINER VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016
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Post PMax Post Panamax values have softened, with older tonnage affected the most.
1 sale has been concluded for August.
UASC Umm Qasr (9034 teu, 2014 blt, Hyundai Samho Heavy Ind) sold to MC Seamax
Management LLC from Asiatic Lloyd Shipping for usd 80 mil inc charter. VV valuing the
vessel at usd 77.39 mil day before sale.
Panamax Panamax values have softened, with 15y old vessels showing a slight firming from historic lows.
1 sale has been concluded this month.
Mare Caribicum (4038 teu, 2000 blt,HHI) sold by Hansa Mare KG to Orient Express Lines
for usd 4.6 mil.
10 demolition sales have taken place in the Panamax fleet.
Handy Handy container values have softened.
3 sales were concluded for August 2016.
One of which, Mell Solomon (1,740 teu, 2009 blt, Guangzhou Wenchong) sold by
Gebruder Winter at usd 8.5 mil, VV valued the vessel at usd 9.6 mil day before sale.
OFFSHORE VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016
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OSV values have remained relatively stable. Modern vessel valueshave firmed slightly, older vessels have softened slightly.
2016
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
BUILT
1.00%
0.90%
0.60%
0.40%
0.10%
-0.30%
-0.70%
-1.10%
-1.60%
-2.00%
-2.50%
-3.10%
-3.60%
-3.90%
-4.60%
-4.80%
5.2k
4.8k
4.8k
4.8k
4.8k
4.8k
4.8k
4.8k
4.8k
4.8k
4.8k
4.8k
4.8k
4.8k
4.7k
4.7k
LARGEPSV
1.00%
0.90%
0.70%
0.50%
0.20%
-0.20%
-0.60%
-1.00%
-1.60%
-2.00%
-2.60%
-3.00%
-3.40%
-4.20%
-4.50%
-5.10%
3.6k
3.6k
3.4k
3.3k
3.3k
3.3k
3.3k
3.3k
3.3k
3.3k
3.3k
3.3k
3.3k
3.3k
3.3k
3.3k
MEDIUMPSV
0.90%
0.80%
0.70%
0.50%
0.20%
-0.20%
-0.70%
-1.20%
-1.60%
-2.10%
-2.40%
-3.10%
-3.60%
-4.10%
-4.10%
-4.80%
1.7k
1.7k
1.7k
1.7k
1.7k
1.6k
1.6k
1.6k
1.6k
1.6k
1.6k
1.6k
1.6k
1.6k
1.6k
1.6k
SMALLPSV
0.30%
0.30%
0.20%
0.20%
0.20%
0.10%
0.10%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
-0.50%
-0.60%
-0.80%
24k
24k
24k
24k
24k
24k
24k
24k
24k
24k
24k
24k
24k
24k
24k
19k
SUPERAHTS
1.30%
1.20%
1.10%
0.80%
0.70%
0.60%
0.50%
0.40%
0.20%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.70%
0.00%
8k
8k
8k
8k
8k
8k
8k
8k
8k
8k
8k
8k
8k
8k
8k
8k
MEDIUMAHTS
1.30%
1.20%
1.00%
0.80%
0.80%
0.50%
0.40%
0.40%
0.30%
0.30%
-0.70%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
5.2k
5.2k
5.2k
5.2k
5.2k
5.2k
5.1k
5.1k
5.1k
5.1k
5.1k
5k
5k
5k
5k
5k
SMALLAHTS
OSV The table below shows the monthly % change for OSV’s, built from 2001-2016 for
the month of August 2016.
OFFSHORE VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016
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AHTS AHTS sales included a large debt restructuring move by Siem Offshore.
The vessels Siem Amethyst, Siem Aquamarine, Siem Diamond, Siem Emerald, Siem
Garnet, Siem Opal, Siem Pearl, Siem Ruby, Siem Sapphire and Siem Topaz, were
purchased by the Siem AHTS Pool from Siem Offshore for an undisclosed price.
VV’s value for the vessels part of the Siem deal is usd 597 mil.
Maersk Puncher (14,280 BHP, blt 1992, Vard Soviknes) and Maersk Provider (14,280 BHP,
blt 1991, Vard Soviknes) were sold for an undisclosed price to Karadeniz Holding. The
vessels will be modified and removed from the offshore market.
VV estimates the total deal from Maersk to Karadeniz Holding to be worth usd 4.15 mil.
PSV PSVs had a total of 4 sales.
ER Kristiansand (3,400dwt, blt 2005, Kleven Verft), ER Arendal and ER Bergen (3,500 dwt,
blt 2006, Kleven Verft) were sold at usd 2.5 mil each by ER Offshore to PSV Opportunity.
Maersk Finder (4,600 dwt, blt 1994, Ulstein Verft) was sold for an undisclosed price from
Maersk to Karadeniz Holding. It will be modified and removed from the offshore market.
S&P $ Chart 1 shows the total value of 2nd hand sales in August 2016 compared to August 2015.
Total activity by transaction value is down 55% compared to August 2015.
Container activity in August 2016 showed higher transaction values than August 2015.
No transactions in the Gas market in August 2016.
2ND HAND S&P ACTIVITY AUGUST 2016 VS 2015
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$416 $380
$224
$0 $7.5
$482
$1,592
$156$20 $9
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Bulker Tanker Container Gas OSV
Val
ue
(M U
SD
)
2015
2016
S&P No. Chart 2 shows the total number of 2nd hand sales taken place in August 2016compared to August 2015.
Total sales by number count are marginally down from August 2015.
Bulker sales are up 26% compared to August 2015.
Tankers have had the largest fall in 2nd hand S&P activity.
15 OSV transactions in August 2016 but only 3 confirmed prices.
46
18
7
0
15
3436
11
3 3
Bulker Tanker Container Gas OSV
No
. Ves
sels
2015
2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
NewbuildingNo.
Chart 3 shows the number of new building orders taken place in August 2016compared to August 2015.
Newbuilding orders are down 55% from August 2016 compared to August 2015.
The Container market shows a 13% increase in newbuilding orders for 2016.
No Bulker, Gas or OSV newbuilding orders were placed in August 2016.
NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY AUGUST 2016 VS 2015
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0
14 15
0 0
11
35
13
42
Bulker Tanker Container Gas OSV
No
. New
Bu
ildin
gs
2015
2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
DemolitionNo.
Chart 4 shows the number of demolition sales for each ship type, taken place for August 2016compared to August 2015.
Total demolition sales for all ship types are up 50% for this August compared to August 2015.
Containers have seen the greatest increase in demo sales.
Gas demolition sales have remained consistent for August 2015 and August 2016.
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY AUGUST 2016 VS 2015
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17
4
15
2 2
14
21
21
Bulker Tanker Container Gas OSV
No
. Dem
o s
ales
2015
2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
CHARTER RATES
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Sep 2015 Aug 2016Jun 2016Apr 2016Jan 2016Nov 2015
(US
D p
er d
ay)
0
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
CapesizePanamaxSupramaxHandy
Dry Chart 5 shows the Baltic Exchange daily market spot rates for Capesize, Panamax,Supramax and Handy Bulkers from 1st August 2015 – 31st August 2016.Source: Baltic Exchange
Rates for all dry vessel types have firmed since the start of the year but are slightly below
August 2015 levels.
Wet Chart 6 shows the Baltic Exchange daily market spot rates for VLCC, Suezmaxand Aframax Tankers from 1st August 2015 – 31st August 2016.Source: Baltic Exchange
Tanker rates for all types continue to soften.
Sep 2015 Aug 2016Jun 2016Apr 2016Jan 2016Nov 2015
(US
D p
er d
ay)
0
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
10,000
90,000
70,000
50,000
30,000
VLCCSuezmaxAframax
CHARTER RATES
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Sep 2015 Aug 2016Jun 2016Apr 2016Jan 2016Nov 2015
(US
D p
er d
ay)
0
14,000
12,000
8,000
10,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
PanamaxHandy Feeder
Container Chart 7 shows Contex daily time charter rates for Panamax, Handysizeand Feedermax Containers from 1st August 2015 – 31st August 2016.Source: Contex.
Container rates have softened over the last 12 months and have stabilized at low levels since
January.
LPG Chart 8 shows the Fearnleys monthly market spot rates for VLGC, MGC and LEG Gas shipsfrom 1st August 2015 – 31st August 2016.Source: Fearnleys.
The LPG sector has seen a further decrease in spot market rates over the course of 2016.
VLGCs have fallen the most, now lower than MGC and LEG rates.
Sep 2015 Aug 2016Jun 2016Apr 2016Jan 2016Nov 2015
(US
D p
er d
ay)
0
3,500
2,500
1,500
500
3,000
2,000
1,000
VLGCMGCLEG