monthly market update - gioa
TRANSCRIPT
Monthly Market Update
October 2019
Presented by: Rick Phillips, GIOA [email protected] 702-575-6666
October 26, 2019
2Source: Bloomberg, CNBC, FHN Main Street
Summary and Economic Signals
Summary
▪ Looks Like a Fed “Santa Pause”▪ GDP Slowing…U.S. and Global▪ Employment Growth Slowing▪ Inflation Expectations Remain Low▪ U.S. Consumer Still Looks Strong’ish▪ Yield Curve…Finally Uninverted▪ No Big Trade Deal Until After Nov 2020?
3Source: CNBC 10/7/19
Fed Chair Powell
4Source: Bianco
But…“It’s Not QE”
5Source: CME
October Cut…December Pause
6Source: Bloomberg
Market and Fed Out of Sync…But Better
7Source: Bloomberg
“Mid-Cycle Adjustment” or Easing Cycle?
8Source: Bloomberg
US GDP Growth Projected to Continue Slowing
9Source: Bloomberg
Global Growth Slowing As Well
10Source: FHN Financial, Hedgeye
Real China Deal…Not Until After Nov 2020?
11Source: Bloomberg
Many Countries Show Growth Decelerating
12Source: Bloomberg
Global Stock Markets…Faith in Easy Money?
13Source: Investing.com, Charlie Bilello
State of the Markets
14Source: Charlie Bilello
Doves Around the World
15Source: Bianco
Long-Term Fed Funds…Lower and Lower and Lower
16Source: Bloomberg
US Employment Growth Much Slower This Year
17Source: Bloomberg
US Inflation’s Mixed Bag
18Source: Bloomberg
Commodity Index vs. 2Yr T-Note Yield
19Source: Bloomberg
US Consumer Remains Strong’ish
20Source: Bloomberg
W.A.T.C.H. ing the Consumer
21Source: Bloomberg
Lower Mortgage Rates Helping Housing
22Source: Bloomberg
Yield Curve Back to Yellow
23Source: Bloomberg
Recession Track Record…This Time?
24Source: Bloomberg
Rates Review the Past 12 Months
3.09%
1.32%
25
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