monthly metal buying outlook - s3. · pdf file2106 1742 lme aluminum: june 1, 2015 resistance...

FORECAST REPORT JUNE 2015

Monthly Metal Buying Outlook

2

Lisa ReismanExecutive Editor, [email protected]. 773.525.9750

[email protected] Tel. 773.525.9750

Editor’s HighlightsHighlights during the month of May

The dollar made a recovery, sending industrial metals lower

Momentum seems to favor a strong dollar which will keep a lid on industrial metal prices

The aluminum forward curve is “back on,” meaning conditionsareripeforthestockandfinancetrade

Nearly all metals markets remain in oversupply, including all forms of steel, nickel, aluminum, zinc and tin

All eyes on imports – particularly for steel and semi-finishedaluminum–asthistrendwillshapethe price outlook for those metals

The industrial metals bear market continues


Editor’s Highlights

Thomson Reuters/Jefferies Index (CRB): June 1, 2015

11 12 13F M A M J J A S O N D F M A M J J A S O N D 14F M A M J J A S O N D 15F M A M J J A S O N D F M M JA

220210

240230

250260270280290300310320330340350360370

223.18

Commodities fell in May, largely due to a stronger dollar. Since March, the dollar has shown some weaknessforthefirsttimeinalmostayear,whichhelped push metal prices up.

However, last month, the dollar recovered some of its losses. There is a chance that the dollar has depreciated enough this year and is now ready to continue its ascent. That would have a depressing effect on commodities and therefore base metal prices.

Meanwhile, oil prices held relatively well in May, though we could see some price declines next month. Industrial metals led the largest price declines for all commodities.

Overall, commodities remain bearish. A weaker dollar still remains the primary mechanism to help prices turn up, but we view that as unlikely.

LONG TERM TREND

DOWN

SHORT TERM TREND DOWN

LONG-TERM TREND

DOWN

Strong move off recent lows



11 12 13F M A M J J A S O N D F M A M J J A S O N D 14F M A M J J A S O N D 15F M A M J J A S O N D F M A M J

15.5

16.516.0

15.0

17.017.518.018.519.019.520.020.521.021.522.022.523.023.524.024.525.025.5

Dow Jones Industrial Metals Index: June 1, 2015

15.21

Industrial metals fell sharply in May, proving this current bear market has not disappeared.

Base metal prices appear incapable of making significantupsidemovesasthestrongdollar lends support to a continuation of the bearish commodity market.

The long-term trend remains down and therefore it is risky to commit to large volumes in this kind of environment. However, organizations should be vigilant looking for signs that the trend is reversing.

LONG TERM TREND

DOWN

SHORT TERM TREND DOWN

LONG-TERM TREND

DOWN

Strong move off recent lows


Index


Aluminum

Copper

Nickel

Lead

Zinc

Tin

HRC

CRC

HDG

Plate

2

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14


Industrial buying strategy

Despite a strong start during the early part of May, as the US dollar entered a small correction, aluminum prices have continued their downward price movement with the other industrial metals. If the dollar continues its moves to the upside – and we have no reason to believe that trend has changed, aluminum will likely remain in a bear market. Oversupply is the wordSeveral indicators tell us the state of aluminum supply. Traders have reported Chinese bar productshavenowenteredEuropeanmarketscost-competitively,thefirsttimeinfiveyears,as a result of the Chinese export tax change reported last month. In addition, service centers have ample aluminum stocks and global aluminum producers have reported extremely short lead times – in some cases days, and in other cases longer than three weeks! MW PremiumsMW premiums as well as global aluminum premiums continue to fall. Meanwhile queues in the LME warehouse system have indeed shortened. However, the LME aluminum forward curve has returned to “normal,” meaning the spot to 18-month price shows a 10% difference, enough torestartthestockandfinancetrade,soakupexcessingotandplaceafloorunderphysical delivery premiums.The OutlookThree-month aluminum closed the month of May at $1,742/mt, down from last month. As we reported last month, the current environment points to aluminum prices trending lower through the end of the year and on that basis, making long-term commitments appears risky until we see real signs of strength.

1742

1670

1980

Support and Resistance Indicator

Aluminum Al

Current Price

Resistance

Support

JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC FEB MAR APR MAY JUN2015

1755

1650

1782

1809

1836

1863

1890

1917

1944

1971

1998

2025

2052

2079

2106

1742

LME Aluminum: June 1, 2015

ResistanceSupport

MAY-14

JUN-14

JUL-

14

AUG-14

SEP-14OCT-1

4

NOV-14

DEC-14JA

N-15

FEB-15

MAR-15

APR-15MAY-1

5

JUN-15

$0.00

$0.05

$0.15

$0.25

$0.10

$0.30

$0.20

US Midwest Premium Futures 3 mo

US Midwest Premium Futures Spot

CME AUP MW Premium

1742

1670

1980


Aluminum Al

Current Price

Resistance

Support


1755

1650

1782

1809

1836

1863

1890

1917

1944

1971

1998

2025

2052

2079

2106

1742


ResistanceSupport

MAY-14

JUN-14

JUL-

14

AUG-14

SEP-14OCT-1

4

NOV-14

DEC-14JA

N-15

FEB-15

MAR-15

APR-15MAY-1

5

JUN-15

$0.00

$0.05

$0.15

$0.25

$0.10

$0.30

$0.20



CME AUP MW Premium

1742

1670

1980


Aluminum Al

Current Price

Resistance

Support


1755

1650

1782

1809

1836

1863

1890

1917

1944

1971

1998

2025

2052

2079

2106

1742


ResistanceSupport

MAY-14

JUN-14

JUL-

14

AUG-14

SEP-14OCT-1

4

NOV-14

DEC-14JA

N-15

FEB-15

MAR-15

APR-15MAY-1

5

JUN-15

$0.00

$0.05

$0.15

$0.25

$0.10

$0.30

$0.20



CME AUP MW Premium

Market Commentary

Aluminum Al

1 Dollar to Euro exchange rate2 China export volumes3 MW Premiums4 Capacity utilization5 Primary aluminum production6 Oil prices7 European & Japanese premiums8 China GDP & PMI data

Aluminum Drivers

For the short term, buy as needed. Should prices break above short-term resistance at $1,980/mt, consider covering for all short-term requirements. For longer-term purchases, we see no reason to place forward buys as aluminum has more potential to the downside.


Copper Cu

The Word on the StreetMining projects have hit the shelves for copper (and many other metals) as miners have turned to cutting costs and improving productivity of existing mines. From a fundamentals perspective, copper prices have struggled to gain any real price strength on the back of poor Chinese demand.Despite bullish sentiment from miners such as Rio Tinto (Rio recently claimed copper prices will recover faster than expected and outstrip supply within two years), it’s hard to seeademandscenarioovertakingsupplytocreateadeficitneededtosendcopperrallying.Copper ProducersDon’t mistake the slope of the price chart for positive stock performance. With the exception of Global Brass and Copper with a 6% stock price improvement from a year ago, the other producers have turned in dismal performances – BHP Billiton down 22% and Freeport McMoRan down a whopping 40% from one year ago.The OutlookThree-month copper closed the month of May at $6,018/mt, down nearly $300/mt from last month. Copper prices have rallied since February (though have fallen during the month of May) and in the short term, may continue to do so. However, copper remains in a long-term bearish market and the recent strength of the dollar could keep copper in its downtrend.

6018

5860

6500


Copper Cu

Current Price

Resistance

Support


5453

5586

5719

58525983

6118

6251

6384

6517

6650

6783

6916

7049

7182

6018

LME Copper: June 1, 2015

ResistanceSupport

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun

-47.5%-45.0%-42.5%-40.0%-37.5%-35.0%-32.5%-30.0%-27.5%-25.0%-22.5%-20.0%-17.5%-15.0%-12.5%-10.0%-7.5%-5.0%-2.5%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%

10.0%12.5%15.0%

BHP (Daily) 27.64%BRSS 8.14%FCX -41.18%

Producer Stock Performance

6018

5860

6500


Copper Cu

Current Price

Resistance

Support


5453

5586

5719

58525983

6118

6251

6384

6517

6650

6783

6916

7049

7182

6018


ResistanceSupport


-47.5%-45.0%-42.5%-40.0%-37.5%-35.0%-32.5%-30.0%-27.5%-25.0%-22.5%-20.0%-17.5%-15.0%-12.5%-10.0%-7.5%-5.0%-2.5%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%

10.0%12.5%15.0%



Market Commentary


1 Dollar to Euro exchange rate2 China copper price (proxy for demand)3 US capacity utilization4 Global production5Refinertreatmentcharges6 Chilean copper production

Copper Drivers

For the short term, consider placing orders now for known demand at current levels or anything close to support. Should prices break above short-term resistance at $6,500/mt, consider covering for all short-term requirements. $7,500/mt remains the long-term resistance level that copper must breach to signal the end of a falling market.

6018

5860

6500


Copper Cu

Current Price

Resistance

Support


5453

5586

5719

58525983

6118

6251

6384

6517

6650

6783

6916

7049

7182

6018


ResistanceSupport


-47.5%-45.0%-42.5%-40.0%-37.5%-35.0%-32.5%-30.0%-27.5%-25.0%-22.5%-20.0%-17.5%-15.0%-12.5%-10.0%-7.5%-5.0%-2.5%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%

10.0%12.5%15.0%




Nickel Ni

Last month we discussed the stainless steel inventory overhang at length. That story continues as both nickel inventories jumped to a record high and service center inventory levels of stainless steels remain high, despite decent end-user demand. Often not discussed – the subject of inventory devaluation. With nickel prices remaining weak, service centers remain hesitant to replenish stocks.

Domesticstainlessmillscontinuetobechallengedtomaintainbasepricesinamarketflushwithinventory. As pressure mounts to maintain sales, the domestic stainless mills continue to be pitted against each other for volume orders. The mills will not move on price unless they have an order in hand for volume. The producer outlook for nickel-based stainless prices also remains flat–otherwisemillswouldpushforforwardorders.Becausestainlessmillshavefilledtheircapacities by producing for stock without a solid base of service center production orders, the domestic mill inventories remain robustly stocked as well.

And as MetalMiner previously reported, the nickel surplus continues and will likely run through Q2, especially as China’s stainless steel mills go into maintenance this month.

The Outlook

Nickel remains in an oversupplied condition and prices seem unable to breach short-term resistance levels while the rest of the industrial metals remain in bearish mode. Three-month nickel closed the month of May at $12,600/mt, down 10% from April. The recent strength of the dollar could keep nickel in its downtrend and therefore we see more price risk to the downside.

12600

12300

14600


Nickel Ni

Current Price

Resistance

Support


ResistanceSupport

12432

13024

13616

14208

14800

15392

15984

16576

17168

17760

18352

18944

19536

20128

12600

LME Nickel: June 1, 2015

12600

12300

14600


Nickel Ni

Current Price

Resistance

Support


ResistanceSupport

12432

13024

13616

14208

14800

15392

15984

16576

17168

17760

18352

18944

19536

20128

12600

LME Nickel: June 1, 2015

Market Commentary

1 Dollar to Euro exchange rate

2 Stainless steel global production

3 Global capacity utilization

4 China coking coal prices

(impacting Chinese nickel pig

iron production)

5 China GDP & PMI data

Nickel Drivers

For the short term, buying organizations should buy only as needed as close to support levels as possible. Forward buys make sense, should nickel break short-term resistance at $14,600/mt.




Lead Pb

Not surprisingly, lead has also fallen this past month on the back of a stronger dollar. In fact, lead fell below MetalMiner’s May short-term support level of $2,000/mt. Market sentiment also appears weak.

According to Shanghai Metals Market, of 10 secondary Chinese lead smelters surveyed on or about May 29, only one producer forecasted rising prices, three forecasted declining prices and the balance came in neutral.

And though Q1 2015 global lead mine output dropped 0.9% from the same quarter in 2014, world usage declined by 2.7%, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. Moreover, the supply/demand balance appears largely in harmony. In other words, the worldcouldseeasmalldeficitof17,000metrictons,butprovisionaldatafromILZSG suggests that supply outpaced demand.

The fundamentals do not support or suggest any imminent lead shortage to give prices a boost.

The Outlook

Three-month lead closed the month of May at $1,952/mt, down about 8% from last month. We warned readers last month of a short-term pullback that did indeed materialize. And though lead had a strong price rally in April, the dollar’s ascent in May pushed lead prices lower. As with the other base metals, price risk remains to the downside.

1952

1880

2160


Lead Pb

Current Price

Resistance

Support


ResistanceSupport

1710

1755

1800

1845

1890

1935

1980

2025

2070

2115

2160

2205

2250

2295

1952

LME Lead: June 1, 2015

1952

1880

2160


Lead Pb

Current Price

Resistance

Support


ResistanceSupport

1710

1755

1800

1845

1890

1935

1980

2025

2070

2115

2160

2205

2250

2295

1952

LME Lead: June 1, 2015

Market Commentary


2 Global production


4 Automotive production

Europe/NA/China

5 China lead prices

Lead Drivers

For the short term, consider placing orders now for known demand at current levels or anything close to support. Should prices break above short-term resistance at $2,160/mt, consider covering for all short-term requirements. $2,300/mt remains the long-term resistance level that lead must breach to signal the end of a falling market.



Zinc Zn

Zinc remains the best-performing metal of all of the industrial metals. And though zinc fundamentals tell a mixed story – industrial-buying organizations should watch the dollar and commodities markets closely for a more likely price scenario for zinc.

The Fundamentals

The arguments supporting growing demand include detailed information recently collected bytheInternationalLeadandZincStudyGroup,suggesting2015demandforrefinedzincwillexceedsupplyby151,000metrictons.Butthisnewdeficitforecasthasbeenreviseddownbecauseofweaker-than-expectedChineseimportsofrefinedzinc.

But not all agree that demand looks positive. The combination of a Chinese slowdown in construction (and reduction in demand for galvanized steel) and increased output, suggest an excess of supply.

Stillsomebelievethatmajorzincdepositshaverundownandzincwillmoveintoadeficitsituation.

The Outlook

Three-month zinc closed the month of May at $2,185/mt, down nearly 7% from last month. And though zinc had a strong price rally in April, the dollar’s ascent in May pushed zinc prices lower. As long as the dollar holds, and commodity markets remain bearish, we don’t see zinc breaking out of the rest of the industrial metals pack.

2185

2070

2420


Zinc Zn

Current Price

Resistance

Support


2015

2046

2077

2108

2139

2170

2201

2232

2263

2294

2325

2356

2387

2418

2185

LME Zinc: June 1, 2015

ResistanceSupport

2185

2070

2420


Zinc Zn

Current Price

Resistance

Support


2015

2046

2077

2108

2139

2170

2201

2232

2263

2294

2325

2356

2387

2418

2185

LME Zinc: June 1, 2015

ResistanceSupport

Market Commentary


2 Global production


4 Zincrefiningcapacity utilization rates

Zinc Drivers

For the short term, consider placing orders now for known demand at current levels or anything close to support as prices could bounce up from last month’s fall. Long-term resistance remains at $2,420/mt and we wouldn’t recommend that buying organizations buy long-term forward unless prices breach that resistance level.



Tin Sn

Tin remains the “biggest loser” of all the industrial metals this year (with the exception of rare earth metals, currently not covered in this forecast report) falling 21% since the beginning of the year.

Supply Glut

The feared “Indonesian raw ore export ban” proved inconsequential for tin. In fact, MyanmarhasprovidedamplequantitiesoftinoretoChinaandforthefirsttimein7years,China has become a net exporter of tin.

That development in combination with the bear commodities market in general and the strong dollar, continue to batter tin prices. However, we could see tin recover slightly in the short term.

The Outlook

Three-month tin closed the month of May at $15,540/mt, down about 2.5% from last month, though trading range-bound. Tin remains in a long-term down trend and continues to show nothing but price weakness. However, prices have fallen hard and fast for tin throughout 2015, so we could see some price support in the short to medium term.

15540

14600

16500


Tin Sn

Current Price

Resistance

Support


14847

16261

16968

17675

18382

19089

19796

20503

21210

21917

22624

23331

15540

ResistanceSupport

LME Tin: June 1, 2015

15540

14600

16500


Tin Sn

Current Price

Resistance

Support


14847

16261

16968

17675

18382

19089

19796

20503

21210

21917

22624

23331

15540

ResistanceSupport

LME Tin: June 1, 2015

Market Commentary


2 Chinese tin ore imports

3 Indonesian export quantities

4 Global production

Tin Drivers

For the short term, consider placing orders only for needed requirements. Should tin breach short-term resistance levels of $16,550/mt, buying organizations may wish to lock for short-term known demand.


HRC HRC

456

448

485


HRC HRC

Current Price

Resistance

Support

400

500

600

700

800

APR-13MAY-1

3JU

N-13JU

L-13

AUG-13SEP-13OCT-1

3NOV-

13DEC-13JA

N-14FE

B-14MAR-14APR-14MAY-1

4JU

N-14JU

L-14

AUG-14SEP-14OCT-1

4NOV-

14DEC-14JA

N-15FE


5

HRC US ($/t)

MetalMiner IndX(SM) HRC: June 1, 2015

ResistanceSupport

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MT (Daily) -29.05%AKS -15.20%NUE -3.17%X 4.42%


456

448

485


HRC HRC

Current Price

Resistance

Support

400

500

600

700

800

APR-13MAY-1

3JU

N-13JU

L-13

AUG-13SEP-13OCT-1

3NOV-1

3DEC-13JA

N-14FE


4JU

N-14JU

L-14

AUG-14SEP-14OCT-1

4NOV-1

4DEC-14JA

N-15FE


5

HRC US ($/t)


ResistanceSupport


-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MT (Daily) -29.05%AKS -15.20%NUE -3.17%X 4.42%


1 US import levels (volume trends)2 MOH service center inventory

3 Total China steel exports

4 Raw material input cost trends

5 Quoted lead times

Steel DriversMarket Commentary

For the short term, consider placing orders only for needed requirements. Should prices in the short to medium term break above the $485/st resistance level, then buying organizations may wish to cover for known requirements.


456

448

485


HRC HRC

Current Price

Resistance

Support

400

500

600

700

800

APR-13MAY-1

3JU

N-13JU

L-13

AUG-13SEP-13OCT-1

3NOV-

13DEC-13JA

N-14FE


4JU

N-14JU

L-14

AUG-14SEP-14OCT-1

4NOV-

14DEC-14JA

N-15FE


5

HRC US ($/t)


ResistanceSupport


-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MT (Daily) -29.05%AKS -15.20%NUE -3.17%X 4.42%


A Fundamentals ViewMills took the opportunity to bump up HRC prices during the month of May. And as MetalMiner previously reported, the price increases helped to increase lead times. Extended lead times often lead to additional price gains. However, service center inventories remain elevated, though most analysts see that falling steadily over the next couple of months.The reality is that the world is awash in steel and China has not rid itself of excess capacity, thereby sending it out in the form of exports. And though China claims the rise in exports is due to higher global demand and Chinese “export competitiveness,” we doubt both of those claims. Meanwhile, Chinese domestic steel prices continue to decline.Global and US domestic steel producers gained a bit of ground from a stock market per-formance standpoint, but most of the producers performed better one year ago. We would expect to see improved stock performance on the back of rising steel prices.The OutlookHRC prices seem to have begun to stabilize after falling for nearly a year by closing the month of May at $456/st. However, we remain hesitant to call bottom, particularly as the broader commodity markets remain bearish and the dollar holds stronger. It would appear challenging for HRC to make any bold price moves to the upside.


CRC CRC

579

565

605


CRC CRC

Current Price

Resistance

Support

CRC US ($/t)

500

600

700

800

900

APR-13MAY-1

3JU

N-13JU

L-13

AUG-13SEP-13OCT-1

3NOV-

13DEC-13JA

N-14FE


4JU

N-14JU

L-14

AUG-14SEP-14OCT-1

4NOV-

14DEC-14JA

N-15FE


5

MetalMiner IndX(SM) CRC: June 1, 2015

ResistanceSupport

579

565

605


CRC CRC

Current Price

Resistance

Support

CRC US ($/t)

500

600

700

800

900

APR-13MAY-1

3JU

N-13JU

L-13

AUG-13SEP-13OCT-1

3NOV-

13DEC-13JA

N-14FE


4JU

N-14JU

L-14

AUG-14SEP-14OCT-1

4NOV-

14DEC-14JA

N-15FE


5

MetalMiner IndX(SM) CRC: June 1, 2015

ResistanceSupport



4 Raw material input cost trends

5 Quoted lead times

Steel DriversThe Import Situation

It’s no wonder mills have kept a close eye on steel imports. Steel import data provides a mixed message. On the one hand, total steel imports declined in April by 3.7% compared to March. However, over that time period, cold-rolled sheet imports increased by 21%.

CRC prices closed the month of May at $579/st, barely up from $576/st in April. New June data has CRC prices up even a few more dollars per ton, indicating this metal may be trying tosolidifyitsfloor.

Inventory Levels

Inventory levels remain the true test of steel markets. According to the most recent MSCI data,servicecentersteelproductinventoriesfell0.8%fromlastmonth.However,withflat-rolled stocks at approximately 6m tons, it will still take some months to bring those levels down (and hence new orders).

Meanwhile, the steel industry capacity utilization rate was 72.3%, down 7.2% from a year ago.

The Outlook

CRC prices seem to have begun to stabilize after falling for nearly a year. However, we remain hesitant to call bottom, particularly as the broader commodity markets remain bearish and the dollar holds stronger. Like HRC, it would appear challenging for CRC to make any bold price moves to the upside.

Market Commentary

For the short term, consider placing orders only for needed requirements. Should prices in the short to medium term break above the $605/st resistance level, then buying organizations may wish to cover for known requirements. Otherwise, buy only as needed.




HDG

HDG prices slid again in May, falling to $617/st from $625/st, but early June numbers indicate prices have notched up slightly. Moreover, HDG imports, which jumped last month by more than 20%, have since declined by nearly 4% in April. We remain vigilant in tracking HDGimports,andatpresstimeUSproducersfiledatradecomplaintcoveringHDGagainstseveral countries including: China, India, Korea, Italy and Taiwan (MetalMiner previously in-dicatedacasecouldbefiledagainstmostofthosecountriesandalsoBrazil,althoughBrazilwas not named in the current complaint).

While US auto production has held strong for 2015, the demand for zinc in China appears somewhat weakened, largely due to sluggish demand within the construction sector. This lack of demand in China likely led to additional HDG imports and why domestic steel mills have kept a close eye on imports.

The Outlook

HDG prices seem to have begun to stabilize after falling for nearly a year. However, we remain hesitant to call bottom, particularly as the broader commodity markets remain bearish and the dollar holds stronger. Like HRC and CRC, it would appear challenging for HDG to make any bold price moves to the upside.

617

600

630


HDG HDG

Current Price

Resistance

Support

550

650

750

850

APR-13MAY-1

3JU

N-13JU

L-13

AUG-13SEP-13OCT-1

3NOV-

13DEC-13JA

N-14FE


4JU

N-14JU

L-14

AUG-14SEP-14OCT-1

4NOV-

14DEC-14JA

N-15FE


5

HDG US ($/t)

MetalMiner IndX(SM) HDG: June 1, 2015

ResistanceSupport

617

600

630


HDG HDG

Current Price

Resistance

Support

550

650

750

850

APR-13MAY-1

3JU

N-13JU

L-13

AUG-13SEP-13OCT-1

3NOV-

13DEC-13JA

N-14FE


4JU

N-14JU

L-14

AUG-14SEP-14OCT-1

4NOV-

14DEC-14JA

N-15FE


5

HDG US ($/t)

MetalMiner IndX(SM) HDG: June 1, 2015

ResistanceSupport

Market Commentary



4 Automotive sales

5 Quoted lead times

Steel Drivers

HDG

For the short term, consider placing orders only for needed requirements. Should prices in the short to medium term break above the $630/st resistance level, then buying organizations may wish to cover for known requirements. Otherwise, buy only as needed.



Plate PLATE

568

535

600


Plate PLATE

Current Price

Resistance

Support

650

750

850

950

550

APR-13MAY-1

3JU

N-13JU

L-13

AUG-13SEP-13OCT-1

3NOV-

13DEC-13JA

N-14FE


4JU

N-14JU

L-14

AUG-14SEP-14OCT-1

4NOV-

14DEC-14JA

N-15FE


5

PLATE ($/t)

MetalMiner IndX(SM) PLATE: June 1, 2015

ResistanceSupport

568

535

600


Plate PLATE

Current Price

Resistance

Support

650

750

850

950

550

APR-13MAY-1

3JU

N-13JU

L-13

AUG-13SEP-13OCT-1

3NOV-

13DEC-13JA

N-14FE


4JU

N-14JU

L-14

AUG-14SEP-14OCT-1

4NOV-

14DEC-14JA

N-15FE


5

PLATE ($/t)

MetalMiner IndX(SM) PLATE: June 1, 2015

ResistanceSupport

1 US import levels (volume trends)2 MOH service center inventory3 Total China steel exports4 Raw material input cost trends 5 Energy demand6 Quoted lead times

Steel DriversPlate prices took another dip in May, falling to $568/st from $576/st the previous month. Prices in June, however, look a little higher in the $575/st range. The import picture suggests service centers remain well-stocked (and overstocked) as total imports for plate products declined 38% from one month ago and are down 11.2% from one year ago.

The Outlook

Plate prices have fallen this past month but may be stabilizing. However, we remain hesitant to call bottom, particularly as the broader commodity markets remain bearish and the dollar holds stronger. In addition, plate suffers from an inventory overhang that will take some time to work off.

Market Commentary

For the short term, consider placing orders only for needed requirements. Should prices in the short to medium term break above the $600/st resistance levels, then buying organizations may wish to cover for known requirements.

monthly metal buying outlook - s3. · pdf file2106 1742 lme aluminum: june 1, 2015 resistance...

Documents