monthly report - november 2015idbidirect.cmlinks.in/admin/pdf/1198924860_monthly report... · 2015....

Monthly Report - November 2015

Monthly Overview

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IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd | Retail Research www.idbipaisabuilder.in

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Contents

At a Glance 3

CNX Nifty Highlights 4

CNX Nifty Outlook 5

Sector Watch 6

Event Calendar 8

Pick Of The Month 9

IDBI Classroom 10

Indices 30-Sep-15 31-Oct-15 % Change Indices 30-Sep-15 31-Oct-15 % Change

CNX Nifty Index 7949 8066 1.47% Nasdaq 4620 5054 9.38%

CNX Midcap 12985 13239 1.96% Dow Jones 16285 17664 8.47%

CNX Smallcap 5233 5362 2.47% FTSE 100 6062 6361 4.94%

CNX 500 6646 6751 1.58% DAX 9660 10850 12.32%

Nifty Futures 8015 8136 1.50% Nikkei 225 17388 19083 9.75%

S&P BSE Sensex 26155 26657 1.92% Hang Seng 20846 22640 8.60%

S&P BSE MID CAP 10799 10975 1.62% KOSPI 1963 2029 3.40%

S&P BSE SMALL CAP 11021 11315 2.67%

Indices 30-Sep-15 31-Oct-15 % Change Particulars 30-Sep-15 31-Oct-15 % Change

CNX Auto 7760 8092 4.28% Gold/10G 25979 26461 1.86%

CNX Bank Nifty 17216 17355 0.80% Silver/KG 34379 36285 5.54%

CNX Commodities 2263 2388 5.51% Crude/Barrel 2994 3001 0.23%

CNX Consumption 3450 3484 0.98%

CNX Energy 7641 8099 6.00%

CNX Finance 7048 7202 2.18% Particulars 30-Sep-15 31-Oct-15 % Change

CNX FMCG 19957 20118 0.81% Dollar/ Rupee 65.51 65.41 -0.14%

CNX Infrastructure 2825 2834 0.30% Euro / Rupee 73.56 72.11 -1.97%

CNX IT 12032 11487 -4.53% Pound / Rupee 99.09 100.92 1.84%

CNX Media 2383 2405 0.94%

CNX Metal 1658 1806 8.94%

CNX MNC 9580 9592 0.12% 30-Sep-15 31-Oct-15

CNX Pharma 12919 13170 1.95% 7.56 7.64

CNX PSU BANK 3099 3030 -2.23% 7.66 7.68

CNX Realty 179 176 -1.73% 8.19 8.12

CNX Service 10479 10440 -0.36% 8.26 8.14

Month Advances Declines

Advance/

Decline Ratio

Oct-15 759 754 1.01

Sep-15 741 764 0.97

Aug-15 686 833 0.82

Jul-15 803 703 1.14

Jun-15 690 796 0.87

May-15 732 759 0.97

Mar-15 627 881 0.71

Feb-15 683 813 0.84

Jan-15 748 786 0.95

Dec-14 706 822 0.86

Nov-14 736 808 0.91

Oct-14 770 759 1.01

IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd | Retail Research

Particulars


Domestic Indices Global Indices

Sectoral Indices Commodities

10 yr G-sec yield

5 yr G-sec yield

10yr AAA yield

5yr AAA yield

Currency

Debt Watch

Advances/Declines Institutional Activity

At a Glance

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

Oct-15 Sep-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Jun-15 May-15

FII DII

Net

Pu

rch

/Sal

es(I

NR

cro

res)


Since the top formation in March

2015 at 9118 level, the Nifty has

been sliding thereafter. In October

2015, the start of the month was

on a weaker note but later part of

month showed a sharp recovery.

On monthly chart, Nifty had

formed positive candle above the

range of previous month. Positive

candle after hammer gives added

confirmation and validate

genuinely of earlier buying.

On the weekly chart, Nifty had a

formed multi shoulder head &

shoulder pattern. Nifty took

support at second neckline. For

price to create positive bias, it is

essential to hold neck line. Double

hammer on weekly chart indicate

buying at lower level. From all

time high to recent low, Nifty RSI

had travelled from 70 level to 40

level which lower band of bullish

zone. Sustainability above 50 level

will reinforce upside strength.

On daily chart, Nifty momentum

has been compressed between

head and shoulder which is

bearish in nature & inverted head

and shoulder pattern which is

bullish in nature. In last week of

October month, Nifty faced

resistance at neckline of head and

shoulder pattern, and formed a

bearish engulfing pattern. RSI had

also risen from oversold zone, for

25 levels, to 60 levels which is

normally considered as upper

band of bearish zone.

Monthly Chart

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

CNX Nifty Highlights

7880 7800

8030 8130


Nifty Outlook:

NegativeBias:

Support Level:

Resistance Level:

The month of October month started with a strong opening but in last week of the month it reversed almost all the gains

during earlier part of the month. Various time frames indicate diverse view; it can be due to fractural nature of charts

and intermediate trends.

On the weekly chart, Nifty had formed bearish engulfing pattern. Weekly RSI is still below downward sloping trend line.

On daily chart, Nifty reversed from Head & Shoulder pattern neckline, RSI also reversed from upper bearish band of RSI.

Nifty continuously formed negative candle for straight 8 days.

In a nutshell, taking cues from intermediate and lower time frame, it indicates that pessimism may persist a while longer.

Considering the recent dip and stretched selling, a mild bounce back or recovery cannot be ruled out. Events like Bihar

state elections, process of reforms and FOMC rate concerns may induce further volatility in market.

Short-term Negative

Medium-term Neutral to Negative

Monthly High: 8336 Monthly Low : 7930

Montly Closing 8065

Long-term Positive

Moving Average

200 Days

8157

7986

8372

Days SMA

20days

50 Days

CNX Nifty Outlook

16642 16185

17270 17475

7900 7720

8250 8470


Federal Bank

Bank of Baroda

CNX Banknifty represents about 15.55% of the free float market capitalization and 89.90% of free float market

capitalization of stocks forming a part of bank sector.

The CNX Bank index was up by around 0.80% during October. The positive trigger for this sector is that Moody's

Investors Service upgraded its outlook for India's banking system to 'stable' from 'negative' on expectation that a

gradual improvement in the operating environment for lenders will lead to lesser growth in bad loans in future. Stock

specific view can be built in this sector with long-term perspective.

Sector Outperformers

Kotak Mahindra Bank

ICICI Bank

Sector Underperformers

CNX AUTO

Sector Bias:

CNX auto index which represents about 7.63% of Free float market capitalization of stock listed on NSE and 95.42% of

Free float market capitalization of stock forming a part of automobile Sector universe.

CNX AUTO index closed the October month with around 4.28% of gains. Majority of the auto stocks performed well

during the month. The better sales data has given further uptick to the stocks. In the near term, Auto sector is likely to

perform better ahead of the festive season.

CNX BankNifty

Montly Closing 17355


Sector Bias: Neutral to Positive

Support Level:

Resistance Level:

Monthly High: 8285


Tata Motors

TVS Motor

Montly Closing

Support Level:

Resistance Level:

Monthly Low : 7732

8092

Positive


AMARARAJA

Bharat Forge

Sector Watch

7815 7630

8481 8680

1629 1480

1814 1932


Resistance Level:

CNX Metal index which represents about 4.62% of Free float market capitalization of stock listed on NSE and 90.37% of

Free float market capitalization of stock forming a part of metal Sector universe.

During the month of October the CNX Metal index was biggest gainer among the key sectoral indices. It rose by around

8.94%. The cyclicality in the industry makes earnings prone to fluctuations but on technical front it is showing some

positive development with strong bull candle of October.

Sector Bias:

Support Level:

CNX Energy represents about 10.46% of the free float market capitalization and 82.99% of free float market

capitalization of stocks forming a part of energy sector.

The CNX Energy index rose by around 6.00% in October. Technically it is near the upper band of falling channel on

monthly chart but considering the positive developments in the industry the sector is likely to perform better going

forward.

Monthly High: 1886 Monthly Low: 1650

Neutral to Positive

Montly Closing 1806


Jindal Steel & Power

Vedanta

CNX Energy

CNX Metal

Support Level:

Resistance Level:

Sector Bias:


Neutral to Positive

Montly Closing 8099


ONGC

Reliance


NTPC

Power Grid


Welspun

CoalIndia

Sector Watch

Date Event Name Period Unit Actual Prior

02-Nov-15 India-Nikkei Manufacturing PMI - HSBC Markit Mfg

PMI

Oct. 2015 -- 50.7 51.2

02-Nov-15

India-Infrastructure output - Infrastructure Output YY

Sep. 2015 % 3.18 2.63

04-Nov-15 India-Nikkei Services PMI - HSBC Markit Svcs PMI Oct. 2015 -- 53.2 51.3

06-Nov-15 India-Foreign reserves - FX Reserves, USD w/o Oct. 25, 2015 USD B -- 351.55

11-Nov-15 India-Money Supply - M3 Money Supply Biweekly Oct. 18, 2015 % -- 10.97

12-Nov-15

India-Trade data for October - Trade Deficit Govt - USD

Oct. 2015 USD B -- 10.48

12-Nov-15 India-Trade data for October - Imports - USD Oct. 2015 USD B -- 32.32

12-Nov-15 India-Trade data for October - Exports - USD Oct. 2015 USD B -- 21.84

12-Nov-15 India-CPI data for October - Consumer Price Index YY Oct. 2015 % -- 4.41

12-Nov-15 India-Industrial output data for Sept - Industrial

Output YY

Sep. 2015 % -- 6.4

12-Nov-15 India-Industrial output data for Sept - Cumulative Ind.

Output

Sep. 2015 % -- 4.1

12-Nov-15 India-Industrial output data for Sept - Manufacturing

Output

Sep. 2015 % -- 6.9

13-Nov-15 India-IPSOS PCSI - Thomson Reuters/IPSOS PCSI Nov. 2015 -- -- 67.7

13-Nov-15 India-Bank Lending - Bank Loan Growth Biweekly Oct. 18, 2015 % -- 9.54

13-Nov-15 India-Bank Lending - Deposit Growth Biweekly Oct. 18, 2015 % -- 11.18

13-Nov-15 India-Foreign reserves - FX Reserves, USD w/o Nov. 1, 2015 USD B -- --

16-Nov-15 India-WPI data for October - WPI Inflation YY Oct. 2015 % -- -4.54

16-Nov-15 India-WPI data for October - WPI Fuel YY Oct. 2015 % -- -17.7

16-Nov-15 India-WPI data for October - WPI Food YY Oct. 2015 % -- 0.7

16-Nov-15 India-WPI data for October - WPI Mfg Inflation Oct. 2015 % -- -1.73


25-Nov-15 India-Money Supply - M3 Money Supply Biweekly Nov. 1, 2015 % -- --

27-Nov-15 India-Bank Lending - Bank Loan Growth Biweekly Nov. 1, 2015 % -- --

27-Nov-15 India-Bank Lending - Deposit Growth Biweekly Nov. 1, 2015 % -- --


30-Nov-15 India-Infrastructure output data for October -

Infrastructure Output YY

Oct. 2015 % -- 3.18

30-Nov-15 India-Fiscal deficit data for April-October - Fed Fiscal

Deficit, INR

Oct. 2015 INR B -- 3785.63

30-Nov-15 India-GDP Detail - GDP Quarterly YY Q3 2015 % -- 7


Event Calendar

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IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd | Retail Research

Considering different factors mentioned above, we can create long position in the zone of 335-320 levels with

pyramid approach. Stop loss need to be maintained at 310 on weekly closing basis with target of 375-395

levels. At current volatile market situation the investors might have to hold for more time for better return.

ITC Limited is an India-based holding Company. The Company operates through four segments: fast moving

consumer goods (FMCG), Hotels, Paperboards, Paper and Packaging, and Agri Business. The FMCG segment

includes cigarettes and cigars, and others, such as branded packaged foods businesses (bakery and

confectionery foods, snack foods, staples, spices and ready to eat foods, among others), apparel, education

and stationery products, personal care products, safety matches and agarbattis. Its Hotels segment includes

Hoteliering. Its Paperboards, Paper and Packaging segment include paperboards, paper, including specialty

paper and packaging, including flexibles. Its Agri Business segment includes Agri commodities, such as soya,

spices, coffee and leaf tobacco. Its brands include Aashirvaad, Sunfeast Dark Fantasy, Bingo!, Yumitos,

YiPPee!, Candyman, GumOn, Classmate, Fiama Di Wills, Vivel, Superia, Engage, Wills Lifestyle, John Players,

Mangaldeep and Aim, among others

Company Profile:


Monthly chart:

ITC considered as defensive counter,

it is regarded as cushion in portfolio

in volatile market. From past couple

of months it is consolidating at lower

range and taking support at business

cycle moving average on Monthly

chart. Current level it is in corrective

mode in rising trend.

Weekly chart:

On weekly Recently price has

stabilized at earlier resistance point.

Technically it known as change of

polarity. At previous resistance level

it is taking support wtih positive

candles.

BUY Target Price: ` 3420-3490

Market Cap:

Current Price:

Target Price:

Upside potential:

` 270,613.45Crores Stock P/E:

Book Value:

Dividend yield:

52 Week High/Low:

27.92

` 337.4 ` 44.08

` 375-395 1.85%

11% (6-8 Weeks) ` 409.70 / ` 294.50

Pick Of The Month: ITC


Chart pattern is a term of technical analysis used to analyze a stock's price action according to the shape its price chart

creates. Trading by chart patterns is based on the premise that once a chart forms a pattern the short term price action

is predictable to an extent. For instance, if a chart creates a "channel" the stock price will be bouncing off the upper

and lower boundary until it breaks out. Based on each pattern's rules many different trading strategies can be applied.

The Wedge Formation is also similar to a symmetrical triangle in appearance, in that they have converging trend lines

that come together at an apex. However, wedges are distinguished by a noticeable slant, either to the upside or to the

downside. As with triangles, volume should diminish during its formation and increase on its resolve. Wedges can be

powerful continuation or reversal patterns, depending on their shape and whether they are situated in an up- or down-

trend.The Following is a Typical Wedge Formation Trend Pattern:

A falling wedge is generally considered bullish and is usually found in up-trends. But it can also be found in downtrends

as well. The implication however is still generally bullish. This pattern is marked by a series of lower tops and lower

bottoms.

A rising wedge is generally considered bearish and is usually found in downtrends. They can be found in up trends too,

but would still generally be regarded as bearish. Rising wedges put in a series of higher tops and higher bottoms.

DBI Classroom: Wedge Chart Pattern

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