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MONTHLY STRATEGY REPORT AUGUST 2018 A DOG YEAR FOR CHINA?

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Page 1: MONTHLY STRATEGY REPORT AUGUST 2018 A DOG YEAR … · Positive earning surprises reached 84%, a level unseen in over two decades. In Europe, though the season is In Europe, though

MONTHLY STRATEGY REPORTAUGUST 2018

A DOG YEAR FOR CHINA?

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MONTHLY STRATEGY REPORT. AUGUST 2018

A DOG YEAR FOR CHINA? 2

A DOG YEAR FOR CHINA?

Fears about a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy are becoming more widespread. While the country’s GDP continues to grow at a rate of 6.7%, the declining stock market—down 20% since its January highs—coupled with the depreciation of the yuan, which has declined 9% against the dollar since March and nearly 3.5% relative to the benchmark currency basket, are causes for concern. Is 2018 the year of the dog or a dog year?

Undoubtedly, underlying this poor performance are pressures from the Trump administration to “rebalance” trade relations with the US. With a trade deficit of USD 375 billion (nearly half of the US’s trade deficit with the rest of the world), China is the largest exporter to the US, accounting for 23% of all imports. This is primarily why the US leader’s constant threats about trade agreements mainly target the Asian country. The republican president seems determined to cut the deficit by half, and little by little his threats are having an effect. In late January, he imposed tariffs on washing machines and solar panels. Then on steel and aluminium. And in early July, he introduced additional 25% tariffs on Chinese products valued at USD 34 billion. We expect that by late August, tariffs will extend to other goods for a value of USD 16 billion. Moreover, in September, under section 301 of the report on China’s practices related to technology transfer, a tax of 10% will be applied to 6,031 new products, such as technology components, furniture, and electrical components (approximate value of USD 200 billion).

It should be noted that despite the size of the figure, thus far US authorities have avoided introducing fees on especially sensitive products like clothing, mobile phones, and computers. This nuance is important given the challenge that substituting Chinese imports would pose for the US with regard to the latest affected products. In this respect, a measure that seems drastic is somewhat more limited, giving the impression that consumers and production chains will ultimately end up absorbing the cost overrun, rather than shifting purchases to other countries or seeing the US economy, which is approaching maximum utilised capacity, replace the supply of these goods. The impact of tariffs has been studied extensively throughout history, and one of their most notable effects, in addition to the inefficient allocation of production factors (countries) with the subsequent decrease in productivity, is increased inflation.

For their part, neither China or the other economies are acquiescing and though disposed to dialogue, they have countered with equal measures that—although still limited in relative terms, representing 5% of total US imports—will have a gradual affect on economic growth.

The impact on China’s GDP will be -0.65% through 2020; the US economy will also suffer, though to a lesser extent. Others countries affected by this situation will be those with close ties to China, like Korea and Taiwan.

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MONTHLY STRATEGY REPORT. AUGUST 2018

A DOG YEAR FOR CHINA? 3

As new tariffs become a reality, a period of uncertainty about the near future begins. On the one hand, we will have to closely follow the ups and downs of negotiations between the US and its partners. The recent truce with the EU under Jean-Claude Juncker is a good example. The ability of the Chinese government to respond with equivalent tariffs (as it has done thus far) is wearing thin due to the much lower amount of exports to the US (USD 130 billion in 2017). Going forward, a different approach to counterattacks will be required, such as limiting the investment of US companies in the country, or even resorting to competitive devaluations or sales of US bonds if the situation becomes more dire.

In any case, the weakness of the Chinese economy cannot be attributed solely to Trump. The authorities of the Asian country have been trying for several months to relax an important part of the measures implemented in recent years, to adapt the changing growth model of its economy and focus on domestic spending. A good example of this is the decrease in credit capacity and the growth rate of state investments in fixed assets, and the deceleration of the money supply. As the graph shows, this cooling, backed by the Chinese government, has increased markedly since October when Xi Jinping assured his place in power and it has little to do with trade tensions.

Although what has transpired thus far could be classified as a dog year, it would be more accurate to remember that, according to the lunar calendar, China will be celebrating the year of the dog until 5 February 2019. According to ancient tradition, years like this (which repeat every eight) are usually favourable periods of prosperity. In addition, people born under the sign of the dog often display the attributes of man’s best friend: loyalty, courage, honesty, and intelligence. Interestingly, both Bill Clinton and Trump were born in the year of the dog. Although we have yet to see many of these virtues, he should know better than anyone about the risks of a trade war. An exit from this situation will be reached, though it will take time.

Joan Bonet Majó

Director of Market Strategies, Banca March

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MONTHLY STRATEGY REPORTAUGUST 2018

TACTICAL RISK REDUCTION WHILE AWAITING GREATER VISIBILITY

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WHAT HAPPENED IN MARKETS?

A favourable earnings season and attenuated trade tensions bolstered markets in July. “Core” sovereign debt, however, was hampered by rising inflation data and rumours—that were later dispelled—of a withdrawal of stimulus by the Central Bank of Japan.

On the trade front, the reciprocal imposition of tariffs between the US and China entered into effect, with the Trump administration planning to impose trade sanctions on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods. Nevertheless, there are two reasons to be optimistic: 1) statements from both parties to resume talks and reach a negotiated agreement, and 2) the meeting between Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, which served to halt new tariffs on the European Union for the duration of negotiations.

In the corporate sphere, the earnings season unfolded positively, especially in the US owing to a boost from the recent tax reform. To date, 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with profit growth of 25% and sales growth of 10%. Positive earning surprises reached 84%, a level unseen in over two decades. In Europe, though the season is slightly delayed, the negative currency effect influenced the Stoxx600 less than expected, with profit and revenue growth of 11% and 5%, respectively. Here, positive earning surprises also beat expectations, at 56%.

The Bank of Japan dispelled rumours by clarifying that it would maintain its monetary stimulus policy and exceptionally low rates for a longer period of time. The institution intervened on three occasions to limit bond yields, reaffirming its inflation target and desire to control the yen. In China, the central bank injected the equivalent of USD 74 billion into the financial system to strengthen the domestic economy. Meanwhile, the minutes from the Fed and ECB meetings complied with the established discourse: the former will continue to raise rates gradually, while the latter will conclude its purchase program in December.

On a macro level, the IMF kept its global forecast at 3.9% for 2018 and 2019, with risks tending downward due to the trade war. In the US, growth and employment data showed strength, while in the Eurozone, quarterly GDP—including Spain—eased.

There is increased concern about inflation associated with rising energy costs: in the Eurozone, June’s CPI closed at 2.1% y-o-y; in the US, overall CPI stood at 2.9%, and the core personal consumption deflator reached 2%, matching the Fed’s target.

Western equities led gains in July. A positive earnings season and a less belligerent tone on trade were reflected in monthly gains on the S&P (+3.6%), €Stoxx 50 (+3.8%) and IBEX (+2.5%). The weakness of the pound also helped the British Footsie (+1.4%). On emerging markets, the MSCI World was up (+1.6%) and Brazil rebounded (+11.6%). China fared worse (-3.1%) on concerns about the possible use of the yuan as a competitive devaluation instrument.

It was a mixed month for fixed income. The rise of inflation and rumours about the end of Japan’s monetary expansion adversely affected US and German bonds. Peripheral bonds performed better, especially on the short segments of the curve and for the credit market.

There was little news on the currency market. The euro-dollar crossover remained largely unchanged, closing July at 1.17 EUR/USD. The pound sterling faltered to 0.892 GBP/EUR, while awaiting progress in the Brexit negotiations.

On the commodity market, Brent broke a 4-month upward streak and closed with declines of 6.5% to $74.25/barrel. The influence of Trump’s statements (threatening to use the country’s strategic reserves), the reopening of export

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terminals in Libya, and higher production from Saudi Arabia outweighed the cooling of relations between the US and Iran. Diminished trade tensions, meanwhile, affected the price of gold, which dipped -2.3% to $1,224/ounce.

HOW TO POSITION OURSELVES IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT

Tactical risk reduction while awaiting greater visibility.

After high growth rates in the first half of the year…

The economic cycle has continued to move forward along the path we anticipated early in the year, when we estimated that the growth rate of the global economy would continue to accelerate in the first half of the year and that this improvement in activity would synchronise in the major economies. These trends remain intact and, predictably, the second quarter of 2018 marked the highest global growth in recent years.

…global growth will continue to expand, though at a more moderate pace.

Looking ahead to the next 6-12 months, we expect the world economy will continue in a cycle of expansion, though it is already showing some signs of easing, which will be accompanied by a greater dispersion in the growth rate. As illustrated in the following graph, business confidence trends have already begun to indicate this changing scenario.

STRATEGIC POSITIONASSET CLASS -2 -1 NEUTRAL +1 +2

LIQUIDITY

BONDS

EQUITIES

ALTERNATIVES

BONDS -2 -1 NEUTRAL +1 +2

SOVEREIGN DEBT

High Quality (AAA)

Peripheral

CORPORATE BONDS

Investment Grade

High Yield

EMERGING DEBT

CONVERTIBLE BONDS

EQUITIES -2 -1 NEUTRAL +1 +2

EUROPE

US

EMERGING

JAPAN

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Inflation will continue to rebound, particularly in the winter months.

Inflation, meanwhile, is moving in the opposite direction, rebounding in June to +2.9% in the United States and +2.1% in the Eurozone.

In the short term, we will still see somewhat higher levels of inflation, given that, in late summer, the base effect of higher oil prices will continue to push CPI upward and then gradually recede. The good news is that the slowdown in the rise of oil prices in the last month minimised the risk of a more accelerated uptick in inflation toward the end of the year.

An expanding global economy buoys stock markets…

In short, the global economy will continue to expand, though with less dynamism and rising inflation, particularly in the summer months. This economic scenario will bolster stock markets.

…which translates into higher corporate profits.

Another supporting factor is the growth of corporate profits, which managed to beat expectations from earlier in the year. As the following graph demonstrates, an increase in corporate profits of 17.3% worldwide is expected for the next 12 months.

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More importantly, these positive earnings surprises have prompted an upward revision of the profits expected for the coming year, a factor that should serve to buoy stock markets.

However, risks have also increased and there are 3 main concerns…

However, the downside risks have increased in recent months and three factors are of particular concern: the escalation of trade tensions and the rapid deprecation of the Chinese currency (as discussed in the first part of this report), coupled with a spike in inflation that will lead to a less expansionary monetary policy in the coming quarters.

Trade tensions…

With respect to trade risk, we believe that, at a minimum, negotiations will continue to generate volatility in the coming months and even more so during a period when trade volumes are smaller and as we approach less expansionary monetary policies.

…the depreciation of the yuan…

Coupled with fears of a trade war, the depreciation of the Chinese yuan is another cause of uncertainty, given concerns that this is a de facto response from the Asian authorities to the imposition of tariffs on US products.

We hope this is not the case, since a sharp devaluation of the yuan would have adverse effects on the global economy, while in the medium term, the economic consequences would also be counterproductive to China’s shifting economic model.

It would also be a negative signal to both foreign and domestic investors. A loss of currency value would raise uncertainty among domestic savers, while curbing the role of the relevant currency used in global trade that Chinese leaders defend.

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Given the foregoing, we believe that the Asian authorities will not pursue a policy of competitive devaluation. However, the weakness of the yuan in recent weeks is another reflection of the fragile balance of the current economic cycle and the inherent risk that compounding tensions between the United States and China will trigger further negative scenarios.

…and the shifting approach to monetary policy.

The third point (less expansionary monetary policy) is somewhat more structural and confirms that the economies are in a phase of economic growth and inflation normalisation, allowing the Central Banks to continue with their strategies to gradually withdraw the extraordinary stimulus measures implemented in the wake of the financial crisis.

It is our view that the United States will continue to take the lead on monetary policy, with the Fed expected to raise rates on two occasions, to 2.25% - 2.5%, by the end of the year. It will also continue to increase the pace of balance sheet reduction, reaching USD 50 billion in Q4 by not reinvesting maturing assets in the portfolio.

For its part, the ECB will not change interest rates in the coming months and will continue to expand its balance sheet until December. It will also decrease the pace from September, tapering asset purchases from the current EUR 30 billion/month to EUR 15 billion/month.

In the aggregate, we will enter a context in which the Central Banks stop injecting liquidity into the system, something not seen in recent years, which will diminish the safety net of markets somewhat, particularly with regard to fixed income, while also being a factor that will boost stock market volatility.

Despite concerns, shares recovered positions in recent weeks.

Despite greater concern about global economic policy, equity markets have rebounded in recent weeks, with some markets, like the US, nearing peak trading range.

In this context, we capitalise on recent increases to reduce exposure to equities…

In our strategic scenario, we still think that in the current phase of the economic cycle, equities are the most attractive asset, offering the best risk/return ratio. However, once the spotlight on corporate results fades, the latent risks derived from increased trade tensions, the effects of higher inflation at a time of monetary normalisation, and concerns about some emerging currencies, like the yuan, may trigger spikes in volatility.

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…thus freeing the risk budget, given that the foreseeable increase in volatility should create purchase opportunities in the lower range.

We believe this risk will be higher in the summer months when trade volumes are smaller. In this context, capitalising on recent uptrends in global stock markets, we recommend greater caution in the short term by reducing portfolio exposure to equities, thus tactically freeing part of the risk budget in portfolios. It is our opinion that this higher volatility will create purchase opportunities in the lower range, where the world’s main stock exchanges are immersed, particularly in Europe where the EuroStoxx50 trades between 3,200 and 3,600 points.

Caution in bonds: short durations, gradually reducing credit risk in portfolios.

Turning to the bond market, we still recommend avoiding investment-grade sovereign debt, and credit increasingly shows lower potential. Higher inflation and a less expansionary monetary policy are negative factors that will drive up long-term interest rates. In Germany, the required 10-year yield is expected to reach 0.9% and 3.2% for the US benchmark. Therefore, we maintain a preference for short durations and contain credit exposure by being very selective about issuers in the portfolio given that, presumably, default rates will be at a minimum in the coming months and current spreads will not cover a potential uptick in defaults.

Within fixed income, we maintain exposure to emerging debt in strong currency, where current share prices offer a good opportunity to capture the associated carry. Despite the poor performance in the first half of the year, the yields currently required for these countries are attractive, taking into account the improved fundamentals in terms of foreign debt and, especially, the reduction of the current account deficit of the main emerging economies.

In the medium term, the euro-dollar crossover is expected to return to normal levels.

Finally, on the currency market, a euro-dollar crossover of roughly 1.15 EUR/USD seems appropriate to reduce exposure to the dollar. Because we maintain our forecast that the euro-dollar crossover will near 1.20 EUR/USD, we advise hedging exposure to the US currency in the portfolio. We believe that the factors that led the euro to depreciate against the dollar to 1.15 EUR/USD are temporary (less dynamism in Eurozone activity data and heightened political fears) and we do not expect the dollar to appreciate beyond these levels.

Joan Bonet MajóPedro SastrePaulo Gonçalves

Banca March Market Strategies Team

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EURIBOR 12 MONTHS (3 YEARS)

EUR/USD (3 YEARS)

10 YEAR GOVERNMENT YIELDS (SPAIN VS GERMANY)

IBEX (3 YEARS)

COMMODITIESLAST 1 MONTH YTD 1 YEAR

BRENT 74,25 79,44 66,87 52,52

GOLD 1224,1 1253,2 1303,1 1269,7

CORPORATE BONDS (1 YEAR SPREAD)

LAST 1 MONTH YTD 1 YEAR

AA -0,22 -0,23 -0,26 -0,27

A -0,19 -0,18 -0,21 -0,20

BBB -0,06 -0,06 -0,12 -0,11

EURIBORLAST 1 MONTH YTD 1 YEAR

1 MONTH -0,37 -0,37 -0,37 -0,373 MONTHS -0,32 -0,32 -0,33 -0,336 MONTHS -0,27 -0,27 -0,27 -0,2712 MONTHS -0,18 -0,18 -0,19 -0,15

CURRENCIESLAST 1 MONTH YTD 1 YEAR

EUR/USD 1,1705 1,168 1,201 1,175

EUR/GBP 0,892 0,885 0,888 0,895

EUR/CHF 1,158 1,157 1,170 1,138

EUR/JPY 130,9 129,4 135,3 130,0

GOVERNMENT BONDSLAST 1 MONTH YTD 1 YEAR

US

2 YEARS 2,67 2,53 1,88 1,35

5 YEARS 2,85 2,74 2,21 1,84

10 YEARS 2,96 2,86 2,41 2,29

30 YEARS 3,08 2,99 2,74 2,90

GERMANY

2 YEARS -0,57 -0,67 -0,63 -0,68

5 YEARS -0,13 -0,30 -0,20 -0,18

10 YEARS 0,44 0,30 0,43 0,54

30 YEARS 1,09 1,02 1,26 1,30

SPAIN

2 YEARS -0,31 -0,24 -0,35 -0,32

5 YEARS 0,36 0,40 0,40 0,27

10 YEARS 1,40 1,32 1,57 1,50

30 YEARS 2,48 2,51 2,85 2,82

UK

2 YEARS 0,77 0,72 0,44 0,27

5 YEARS 1,06 1,03 0,72 0,59

10 YEARS 1,33 1,28 1,19 1,23

30 YEARS 1,77 1,74 1,76 1,86

EQUITY INDICESLAST 1 MONTH YTD 3 YEAR

MSCI WORLD (*) 519,82 2,89% 1,32% 27,59%

SP500 2816,29 3,60% 5,34% 52,97%

EUROSTOXX50 3525,49 3,83% 0,61% 13,69%

TOPIXX 1753,29 -1,35% -3,54% 34,63%

IBEX35 9870,7 2,58% -1,72% -0,32%

FOOTSIE100 7748,76 1,46% 0,79% 15,12%

MSCI BRAZIL 1839,87 11,69% -9,05% -17,01%

MSCI CHINA 84,64 -3,10% -5,27% 34,48%

MSCI EMERGING 1087,46 1,68% -6,13% 8,54%

Source: Bloomberg(*) All Countries

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DATA AS OF 31ST JULY 2018

RETURN DURATION PORTFOLIO DISTRIBUTION CURRENCY EXP. (NO EUR)

WEEK MONTH YTD YEAR CURRENT 1 MONTH AGO LIQUIDITY DEPOSITS FI EQUITY ALT. INV. TOTAL USD

MARCH MONETARIO F.I. 0,01% 0,01% -0,28% -0,34% 0,384 0,483 27,41% 22,59% 50,01% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%

MARCH RENTA FIJA CORTO PLAZO F.I. 0,06% 0,16% -1,08% -0,91% 0,460 0,463 5,83% 5,61% 89,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%

MARCH PREMIER R.F. C.P. F.I. 0,08% 0,24% -0,66% -0,42% 0,475 0,485 4,59% 5,66% 90,01% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%

MARCH PATRIMONIO C.P. F.I. 0,05% 0,19% -0,49% -0,31% 0,873 0,885 2,47% 2,13% 95,55% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%

FONMARCH F.I. 0,09% 0,29% -0,22% 0,07% 2,453 2,551 6,02% 0,00% 94,09% 0,00% 0,00% 0,01% 0,00%

MARCH EUROPA F.I. 1,78% 3,66% 1,51% 1,97% 0,003 0,007 3,31% 0,00% 0,00% 96,58% 0,00% 37,47% 6,58%

MARCH INTL - VALORES IBERIAN EQUITY 0,08% 0,58% 0,91% 1,75% 0,0 0,0 2,55% 0,00% 0,00% 97,45% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%

MARCH GLOBAL F.I. 0,83% 2,12% 2,90% 6,89% 0,003 0,007 0,46% 0,00% 0,00% 90,59% 0,00% 57,62% 14,06%

MARCH INTL - MARCH VINICATENA -0,17% 0,57% -1,10% 5,83% 0,0 0,0 20,88% 0,00% 0,00% 79,12% 0,00% 49,75% 17,88%

MARCH INTL - THE FAMILY BUSINESSES FUND 0,70% 1,99% -1,97% 3,45% 0,0 0,0 19,40% 0,00% 0,00% 80,60% 0,00% 37,02% 15,46%

MARCH NEW EMERGING WORLD F.I. 0,25% 1,25% -5,61% -1,90% 0,000 0,007 13,38% 0,00% 0,00% 102,34% 0,00% 33,50% -18,35%

MARCH INTL - TORRENOVA LUX 0,47% 1,34% -0,82% -1,38% 1,0 1,1 5,92% 0,00% 70,23% 23,85% 0,00% 2,66% -0,34%

TORRENOVA DE INVERS. S.I.C.A.V. S.A. 0,47% 1,19% -0,41% -0,67% 1,037 1,093 6,56% 0,00% 69,80% 23,72% 0,00% 2,66% -0,34%

CARTERA BELLVER S.I.C.A.V., S.A. 0,37% 1,80% 0,27% 0,80% 1,082 1,123 4,30% 0,00% 41,75% 53,06% 0,00% 7,29% 2,51%

LLUC VALORES S.I.C.A.V., S.A. 0,33% 2,33% 2,09% 3,90% 0,003 0,008 14,05% 0,00% 0,00% 85,87% 0,00% 14,42% 7,42%

MARCH PATRIMONIO DEFENSIVO FI 0,16% 0,41% -1,12% -0,98% 0,000 0,007 4,96% 0,00% 69,59% 16,52% 4,18% 2,49% 2,49%

MARCH CARTERA CONSERVADORA FI 0,19% 0,59% -0,63% 0,20% 0,000 0,008 12,47% 0,00% 51,93% 34,04% 4,25% 2,89% 2,89%

MARCH CARTERA MODERADA FI 0,19% 0,79% 0,03% 1,57% 0,000 0,008 15,53% 0,00% 35,70% 49,50% 1,81% 1,07% 1,07%

MARCH CARTERA DECIDIDA FI 0,18% 0,99% 0,32% 3,48% 0,000 0,008 9,12% 0,00% 12,33% 79,82% 2,21% 1,76% -1,75%

PLAN PENSION CRECIENTE, F.P. 0,03% 0,12% -0,93% -0,90% 1,715 1,764 2,38% 2,14% 95,87% 0,00% 0,00% 0,62% -0,62%

MARCH PENSIONES 80/20, F.P. 0,27% 0,62% -0,43% 0,81% 2,665 2,764 1,43% 0,00% 74,27% 24,26% 0,00% 13,73% 3,08%

MARCH PENSIONES 50/50, F.P. 0,50% 1,00% 0,41% 3,01% 2,241 2,341 7,05% 0,00% 45,53% 47,20% 0,00% 28,45% 7,12%

MARCH ACCIONES, F.P. 0,97% 1,82% 1,85% 7,10% 0,003 0,008 5,35% 0,00% 0,00% 94,07% 0,00% 58,36% 16,06%

MARCH AHORRO, F.P. 0,36% 0,63% 0,46% 2,94% 2,771 2,904 3,13% 0,00% 64,87% 32,67% 0,00% 20,37% 5,95%

PLAN OPTIMO, F.P. 0,35% 0,64% 0,24% 2,62% 2,850 2,973 4,31% 0,00% 57,49% 29,53% 0,00% 18,46% 5,25%

MARCH MODERADO EPSV 0,37% 0,71% 0,29% 1,54% 2,392 2,575 7,61% 0,00% 64,49% 30,71% 0,00% 17,44% 4,46%

MARCH ACCIONES EPSV 0,93% 1,89% 2,31% 7,39% 0,003 0,006 4,71% 0,00% 0,00% 94,60% 0,00% 59,51% 15,80%

EQUITY INDICES PERFORMANCE (3 YEARS)Source: Bloomberg

IBEX REL

MSCI EMERGENTES REL

SP500 REL

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TACTICAL RISK REDUCTION WHILE AWAITING GREATER VISIBILITY 13

IMPORTANT REMARK:

The contents of this document are merely illustrative and do not pretend, are not and cannot be considered under any circumstances as an investment recommendation towards the contracting of financial products. This document has only been prepared to help the customer make an independent and individual decision but does not intend to replace any type of advice needed for the contracting of such products. The terms and conditions described in this document are to be viewed as preliminary terms only, subject to discussion and negotiation as well as to the agreement and final drafting of the terms affecting the transaction, which will appear in the contract or certificate to be issued. Consequently, March Asset Management S.G.I.I.C., S.A.U. and its customers are not bound by this document unless both parties decide to embark on a specific transaction and agree on the terms and conditions concerning the final documents to be approved. March Asset Management S.G.I.I.C., S.A.U. does not offer any guarantee, expressly or implicitly, in relation with the information shown in this document. All terms, conditions and prices contained in this document are merely informative and subject to modifications depending on the market circumstances, changes in laws, jurisprudence, administrative procedures or any other issue which may affect them. The customer should be aware that the products mentioned in this document may not be appropriate for his/ her specific investment targets, financial situation or risk profile. For this reason the customer must make his/her own decisions by taking into account such circumstances and by obtaining specialised advice in tax, legal, financial, regulatory, accounting issues or any other type of information required. March Asset Management S.G.I.I.C., S.A.U. does not assume any responsibility for any direct or indirect costs or loss which may result from the use of this document or its contents. No part of this document can be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any way or through any means, redistributed or quoted without a previous written authorisation by Management S.G.I.I.C., S.A.U. Please note this document has been translated for your information only. In case of any errors or misinterpretations, the Spanish text will always prevail.