moray rumney's presentation at emerging communication conference & awards 2010 america

Macro Trends and Predictions in Mobile Broadband

Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Macro Trends and

Predictions in Mobile

Broadband

Moray Rumney

Agilent Technologies

© Copyright 2009 Agilent Technologies, Inc.


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

What we would like in Mobile Broadband…

Simplicity and economies of scale:

- One worldwide wireless standard for everything

- One air interface

- One frequency band

- One core network

- One application development framework

- And no IPR (that we don’t own…)

For 2G, GSM substantially achieved this in 1992

For 3G, UMTS faltered in 1999 but 3.5G is picking up by 2008

For 4G, what is the outlook?


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Key lessons learned from 20 years of cellular

What we learned from GSM (2G)Scale matters 4 billion devices worldwide

Ubiquitous low-rate services work and are hugely profitable (voice/SMS)

What we learned from UMTS (3G)A fat circuit-switched data pipe doesn’t cut it

Coverage matters

What we learned from HSPA (3.5G)Packet-switched data is essential for mobile broadband

When the megabits finally start flowing, data density matters

Macro networks can only do so much – we need small cells for capacity

Pricing data at 1% of voice is not sustainable

What we learned from the iPhoneUsability and apps are vastly more critical to innovation than air interfaces

Wi-Fi is an effective way to offload low-grade traffic from cellular


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

What can wireless learn from Transportation?

Trains, Planes and Automobiles: The film

The film is the story of the trials and tribulations

of an American executive (Steve Martin) trying

to get home for Thanksgiving

At every turn his preferred method of transport

is thwarted - He does get home – eventually!

We understand his plight

because most of us can

relate stories of our own

We also understand his

plight because we have a

deep understanding of

the range of transportation

available to us

Trains, plans and automobiles

Moray Rumney

February 17th 2010


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Transportation – a mature industry

Transportation has taken thousands of years to evolve

This has allowed us time to get used to four key elements

Performance What to expect – capacity, speed etc.

Value What different options are worth to us

Price What we pay for different options

Cost What it costs to provide a particular service

New transportation options do

come along – like Virgin Galactica

Space Tourism – but in general,

transportation is very stable


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Properties of a mature and sustainable industry

For an industry to be mature requires the following:

• We must understand the performance – i.e. what to expect

• From this we can assess the value to us individually

• We then can choose from the options and pay the price

If the industry is to be sustainable then

• The value must exceed the price paid

• The price paid must exceed the cost of delivery


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Mobile Broadband – a very new industry

True mobile broadband has only very recently come upon us

• The rise of HSDPA, 1x-EV-DO and public Wi-Fi

But is this industry mature and sustainable?

What about its stability?


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

We want planned order


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

…and the space (spectrum!) to deploy it

Denver

Note use

of spatial

diversity!


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

5G 2G

3G

4G

1G

But what we have looks more like Heathrow!


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

IS-136TDMA

PDCGSMIS-95Acdma

Cellular wireless: Almost nothing is obsolete in 20 years

2G

Incre

asin

g e

ffic

ien

cy,

ban

dw

idth

an

d d

ata

rate

s

2.5

G

3G

3.5

G

3.9

G

4G

HSCSD iModeGPRSIS-95Bcdma

LTE-Advanced

Rel-10802.16m

E-GPRSEDGE

IS-95Ccdma2000

W-CDMAFDD

W-CDMATDD

TD-SCDMALCR-TDD

HSUPAFDD & TDD

1xEV-DORelease B

1xEV-DORelease A

1xEV-DORelease 0

HSDPAFDD & TDD

UMBLTE

Rel-8Edge

EvolutionHSPA+

802.16eMobile

WiMAXTM

802.11g

802.11a

802.11b

802.16dFixed

WiMAXTM

802.11n

802.11h

WiBRO

Trends in wireless evolution

Moray Rumney

April 16th 2010


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Consequence: 4G Mobile device design circa 2010

LTE-Advanced

LTE

High spectral

efficiency

A-GPS

TD-LTE

Multi-band (29)

Multi-RAT

HSPA+

MBMS

TD-SCDMA

1xEV-DO(B)

Wi-FI

802.16e

802.16m

EDGE-Evolution

VoIP

Multi-Carrier

MIMO

Interference

cancellation

High battery

efficiency

Bluetooth

Green

wireless

Low cost

Dongle or phone


Moray Rumney

April 16th 2010


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Performance - Which is the best car?

$2,500 $1,500,000

Answer: Both! It depends on the problem you are trying to solve

Page 14


Moray Rumney

April 16th 2010


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Performance varies across the cell based on SINR

Cell edge /

poor conditions

Cell edge /

poor conditions

Cell centre /

good conditions

Position in cell /

radio conditions

Peak performance

(ideal / single user)

Average performance

(per user:10 users/cell)

Cell edge performance

(per user: 10 users/cell)

Th

rou

gh

pu

t

With each

wireless evolution,

the ratio between

cell edge and

peak performance

has increased


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

So which really matters in mobile broadband?


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Performance per user by format

Throughput

Format

Occupied

BandwidthPeak

(Single user)

Average(10 users/cell)

Cell Edge(10 users/cell)

Raw Peak/

edge ratio*

GSM (1 slot) (10

users, freq. reuse = 4)1 MHz 9.6 kbps 9.6 kbps 9.6 kbps 1

GPRS (4 slot) 4 MHz 81.6 kbps 50 kbps 36.2 kbps 2.3

EDGE (4 slot) 4 MHz 236.8 kbps 70 kbps 36.2 kbps 6.5

UMTS (Rel-99) 5 MHz 384 kbps 100 kbps 30 kbps 12.8

HSDPA (Rel-5) 5 MHz 3.6 Mbps 250 kbps 80 kbps 45

HSDPA (Rel-7) 5 MHz 42 Mbps 350 kbps 120 kbps 350

HSDPA (Rel-8) 10 MHz 84 Mbps 800 kbps 240 kbps 350

LTE (Rel-8) 4x4 20 MHz 300 Mbps 5.34 Mbps 1.6 Mbps 187

LTE-A (Rel-10) 4x4 20 MHz 600 Mbps 7.4 Mbps 2.4 Mbps 250

* Ratio can be reduced at the expense of cell capacity by using proportional scheduling

A high peak to average performance ratio is bad for user experience


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Is Mobile Broadband sustainable today?

Price

Service

Data rate

/ volumePrice €

Cost /

MByte

Price /

MByte

Relative

price

SMS160 Bytes

€0.15 /

message€ X €1000 400,000

Voice10 kbps

€0.05 to €0.5 /

minute€ Y € 0.7 - € 7 300 - 3000

Data service

(capped at 3

GBytes)

3 GBytes €20 / month € Y/5 € 0.007 3

Unicast Mobile

TV (Capped at

50 hrs)

50 Hours

@ 100

kbps

€5 / month € Y/5 € 0.0023 1

With many of today’s data pricing plans, the cost of delivery exceeds

the price which exceeds the value – this is not a sustainable situation

Trains, plans and automobiles

Moray Rumney

February 17th 2010


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Wireless capacity growth

In the last 50 years wireless capacity has increased by around

1,000,000

This growth has come from better efficiency, more spectrum

and more cells in roughly this ratio:

Gro

wth

facto

r

1

10

100

1000

2025

2000

Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells

10000

Growth has

historically been

dominated by the

increase in the

number of cells


Moray Rumney

April 16th 2010


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Capacity growth potential for the next decade

Gro

wth

po

ten

tial

1

10

32

100

Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells

100

Using current projections, the increase of cell numbers (small cell

spectrum reuse) remains the dominant means of growing capacity


Moray Rumney

April 16th 2010

Small cell potential:

Moving from 1 base

station / 1000 users

to 1 base station / 10

users


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Projecting ahead shows the gap between average

and peak rates in a loaded cell will grow to 90x

Data rates x 100000

Efficiency x 87

Spectrum x 13

1100x capacity

A 90x gap will exist

by 2015

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

100000000

1000000000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Peak rates Average Efficiency Spectrum Capacity

The average efficiency, spectrum and capacity plots are normalized

The outlook is that

average efficiency

and spectrum will

fall further behind

peak rates

Efficiency, spectrum and capacity are

normalized to single-band GSM in 1992

83 users/cell occupying 25 MHz @ 9.6 kbps


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

The macrocellular dilemma

To deliver true mobile broadband these three attributes are all

required:

1. High data rates with the capacity and density to match

2. Ubiquitous coverage

3. Low or reasonable cost

For macrocellular networks, pick any two!

Conclusion: High efficiency macrocellular can’t deliver

substantial growth in capacity.

Some form of small cells is essential.


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

FCC decision on Net Neutrality

What dos it mean for wireless?

“Broadband providers cannot discriminate against

services or applications by slowing them down”http://www.openinternet.gov/read-speech.html

What if we assumed other services were unlimited?

Stubbed toe of the decade perhaps?

But the operators are fighting back!

Is that the DoD?

I’d like dad’s

newspaper delivered

by helicopter please!

No charge of course.


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Predicting winning technology

Often the “best” doesn’t win

• Ethernet vs. Token ring

• 802.11b vs. HiperLAN

• Windows 3.1 vs. Unix

• Iridium vs. GSM

• Esperanto vs. English

• What about femtocells vs. Wi-Fi

“Perfection is the enemy

of the good”Gustave Flaubert

French Novelist 1821 - 1880


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

The small cell challenge

Femtocells Vs. Wi-Fi

The capacity density opportunity offered by small cells is clear

But which technology will win?

There are many parameters to this debate but effective control

of interference is critical for unplanned high density deployment


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

What happens when any two femtocells are

co-sited on the same frequency?


Moray Rumney

April 16th 2010

Significant challenges, especially for closed subscriber group


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

53 APs visible from one San Francisco restaurant.

Can you spot it?


Moray Rumney

April 16th 2010

Not ideal but it still functions due to 802.11 cognitive design


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Scale also matters:

WiFi chips will out-ship cellular phones by 2012


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

What will it take for 3.9G/4G technology to displace

existing cellular and deliver a unified vision?

Sufficient clean spectrum in which to gain a foothold (e.g.

European 800 MHz band, 2.6 GHz band)

Network optimization to milk opportunities and overcome

challenges with OFDM

Demonstrated performance to drive obsolescence of legacy and

evolving older technologies leading to refarming

Solution to Voice support caused by the packet-only network

Proof that IMS is a viable solution for mobile systems

Economies of scale to drive down prices to below legacy

systems

But leave high capacity density to small cells


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Summary

Macrocellular can provide ubiquitous medium performance mobile broadband

Everything else needs to be offloaded to small cells with Wi-Fi well in the lead

The mature cellular market will migrate to low cost & complexity technology

High cost &

complexity

Multi-format

Multi-band

Multi-antenna

Fragmentation

Low QoS

Short battery life

High peak to

average

performance

High efficiency

Low cost &

complexity

Fewer formats

Fewer bands

Fewer antennas

Consolidation

High QoS

Long battery life

High average

performance

Low peak to average

performance

Medium/low efficiency

Cellular Smileometer TM


Moray Rumney

19th April 2010

Thank you for listening!

moray rumney's presentation at emerging communication conference & awards 2010 america

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