More Bandwidth, Please

IEEE ComSoc – Atlanta Chapter

October 24, 2017

Outline

2

• The Internet - The Early Days

• Exponentially Growing Bandwidth Demand

• Cable Operators move from Video to Data

• Past Evolution of Cable Architecture

• Possible Future Cable Architectures

Connecting to the Net – The Early Years

3

1989 – 100,000 Hosts on Internet

Nielsen’s Internet Connection Speeds

4

300 bps

9.6 Kbps

128 Kbps

12 Mbps

300 Mbps

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

Meg

a Bi

ts P

er S

econ

d

Nielsen's Law vs. Max Offered Internet Connection SpeedsLogarithmic Scale, Mbps

The Era of Dial-Up Modems

The Era of Cable Modems

The Era of Wideband

Cable Modems andIP Video

The past 25 years show a constant bandwidth increase

of ~1.5x every year

Nielsen’s Curve

Disruptive Event in 2013:“1 Gbps Service”

6 years ahead of projection

Nielsen’s Law:

Broadband speeds

increase 50% per year.

Jakub Nielsen 1998

Mike’s Household Example of the Bandwidth Growth

5

$60.00

TELCO

¥ CPI based upon Buerau of Labor Statisics Data

Keeping The Cost Down while Meeting the Bandwidth Demand CAGR is Critical to Keeping Customers Happy and Success in the Business

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

1997 2016

Spee

d (k

bps)

Cooper's Internet Speed

$25.00

$90 $90

$35.00

$-

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

1997 actual 1997 after adjusting forInflation to 2016

2016 actual

Mon

thly

Ser

vice

Cos

t

Service Cost Comparison

ISP

TELCO

51.5% CAGRConsistent

with Nielsen

2016 & 1997 Cost are the Same

after Adjusting for Inflation ¥

Possible Changes Looming?Bandwidth Growth in Recent Years

6

Downstream

Upstream

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

95%

Pea

k

North America Peak Residential Demand

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

Dow

n /

Up

Ratio

Data Use Asymmetry – North American Peak

Categories of Services today (with peak hour %)

Streaming Media 62%Downloads 10%Web browsing 6%Encrypted 6%Peer-to-Peer 2%Messaging and Collaboration 2%Gaming 2%All others 9%

Traffic Consumption

8

Bottom 70% of Users

15% of Users

Top 15% of Users

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% o

f Tot

al D

ata

Cons

umpt

ion

Downstream

Bottom 70% of Users

15% of Users

Top 15% of Users

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% o

f Tot

al D

ata

Cons

umpt

ion

Upstream

The Traditional Cable TV Architecture

System MTC /STC locationsMaster MTC Backbone

transportIndividual node serving areas

Customer premise

The Access Network

History of the Access Network

10

Bandwidth basics

With D3.0, there is head room for growth in downstream up to 32 QAMs, but we are constrained for growth in upstream

The total downstream and upstream bandwidth is shared across all subscribers in a Service Group.

2 4 9 52 58 2 32

D3

.0

Other Data + Voice Reserved Available Digital Video Control D3.0

5 MHz 1 GHz42 MHz

DownstreamUp

6.4 MHz30 Mbps

6.0 MHz42.88 Mbps

1D

(*) Example assumes All-Digital in the market

Downstream Bandwidth

Total Bandwidth offered by

DOCSIS Spectrum

Total bandwidth is shared across the

Service GroupAvg. bandwidth

per Sub.Total SG Bandwidth

Size of SG=

Upstream Bandwidth

Single Quadrature Amplitude Modulated (QAM) upstream channel is 6.4 MHz wide

with a raw capacity of 30 Mbps

Single Quadrature Amplitude Modulated (QAM) downstream channel is 6.0 MHz wide with a raw capacity of 38.8 Mbps

Band

wid

th p

er S

ubQ

AM A

ssig

nmen

t

11

Growth driver

12

CAGR 49%

CAGR 42%

CAGR 34%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Downstream Peak Utilization (Mbps)

49% Projection Moderate Growth Low Growth

3 Years 5 Years

51 Mbps

31 Mbps

18 Mbps

7 Mbps

7 Mbps

6 Mbps

3 Mbps

3 Mbps

3 Mbps

• Simplified TE formula– C >= (Nsub*Tavg)+(K*Tmax_max)– C is the required bandwidth for a service group– Nsub is the total subs in the service group– Tavg is the average bandwidth consumed – K is QoE constant 0 <= K <= infinity– Tmax_max is the highest speed offered

Year Nsub Tavg K Tmax_max C

2016 235 1 Mbps 1.2 150 Mbps 415 Mbps

2021 128 7 Mbps 1.2 1 Gbps 2 Gbps

2026 64 51 Mbps 1.2 5 Gbps 9 Gbps

• The typical head-end with will have issues related to footprint scale as we deploy fiber-deep architectures

• Many ways to address challenges

Bandwidth management

We continue to leverage carrier additions & nodes splits to manage bandwidth & will require additional levers to meet future demand

We manage bandwidth per service group by carefully managing the capacity and reach on the network.Influencing Factors Technology EnablersBandwidth per Sub

Total Available bandwidth

Number of Subs. Sharing BW

Capacity

Subscribers in SG

1

2

Tier Mix

Speed Tiers

Concurrency

Homes Passed

Tier Penetration

Carrier Additions

IP Video

DOCSIS 3.13.1

32D

Spectrum Expansion, Mid/High Split

Node Splits

Fiber Deep (N+1, N+0)

+

13

Technology Timing Description Bandwidth(DS / US Mbps) Dependencies / Prerequisites

D2.0, 1D 1 - 40 / 30 -

D3.0, 32D 2 Channel Bonding 1,200 / 150 Free additional downstream spectrum

D3.1, Single OFDM 3 OFDM 2,500 / 300 CCAP infrastructure, D3.1 CPE migration

MPEG2 -> MPEG4 4 Enhanced encoding 3,300 / 300 Install new encoders and CPE

Full IP 5 IP based delivery 8,000 / 1,000Migration to All IP video, Video CPE replacement,

Mid split to support additional downstream capacity

Mid/High Split, 1.2-1.8 GHz,

Full Duplex 3.16 Symmetrical

speeds 10,000 / 10,000 Fiber Deep Passive Coax (N+0), Distributed Access Architecture, Upgrade all actives, upgrade CPEs

Fiber to the Tap?Extend Spectrum? 7 Fiber-like speeds 30,000 / 30,000

Allows complete spectrum per home, potential for 100 Gbps, Uses current drop, supports legacy

equipment

3.1

32D

IP

14

DOCSIS Evolution

DOCSIS Full Duplex Technology

15

• Supports Multi-Gigabit Symmetric Services• Non-disruptive Technology for Customers

– Compatible with Legacy in-home Devices– Doesn’t Require burying fiber to the home– Doesn’t Require rewiring in the home

• Simple Migration of Existing HFC Network to Fiber deeper with Node 0

96 MHz

192 MHz

288 MHz

384 MHz

576 MHz

or

or

or

108 300 492 684 108 300 492 684

-Impulse Response of Echo channel

Coupler

XMIT

RCV

Future of the Access network

Current network architecture averages N+5, driving fiber deeper improves Network Capacity and Performance

To metro distribution

CMTS Fiber NodeTap

Amplifier

Tap

Tap

Tap

Customer

Households Passed (HHP) – Number of homes that fall in the serving area of a single fiber nodeService Group – Number of customers sharing DS and US bandwidth

Households Passed

+

Fiber

Coax

Fiber

Coax

Coax

Not a customer

Serv

ice

Gro

up

Fibe

r Dee

per TapN

+5 HHP 512

TapN+1 HHP 128

TapN+0 HHP 64

Fiber Fiber

Fiber

FiberFiber

Fiber

Fiber terminates at the node

Node plus 5 Amplifiers

Node plus an Amplifier

Node with no Amplifier(passive network)

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