morgan stanley ceo unplugged 010308 -...
TRANSCRIPT
2
Introduction
Strategy on track
Excellent third quarter results
Strong product sales reflecting good results and successful product launches across all areas of our business
Upgrading revenue growth guidance to at least 30% (previous guidance: at least 25%)
3
How the Shire strategy is working
6 launches in past two years: FOSRENOL, ELAPRASE, DAYTRANA, LIALDA, VYVANSE, DYNEPO
100% track record of approvals or “approvables” in past four years
Strong intellectual property for key growth driving products
Focus on orphan drugs and specialist products fulfilling unmet needs
Global expansion into new markets (South America, Russia, Mexico, Australia, Japan)
Revenue growth
2006 = 12%
2007 latest published guidance recently upgraded to at least 30%
4
Strong market exclusivity for growth drivers
2012
2016
2018
2020
2023
2012
2010
2012
2013
2009
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
DYNEPO
ELAPRASE*
FOSRENOL
LIALDA^
VYVANSE
Patent Life Regulatory Exclusivity
^ Currently difficult generic approval pathway for locally acting drugs*Orphan Drug
EU 2017
7
Key attributes to support VYVANSE as an NCE in a new class
The first Pro-drug Stimulant
Consistent time to maximum concentration of d-amphetamine from patient to patient
Significant efficacy throughout the day, even at 6:00 PM
Adverse event profile that is mild to moderate in severity and incidence decreases over time
Significantly lower abuse related liking effect than an equivalent oral dose of d-amphetamine
5
8
05000
1000015000200002500030000350004000045000
6-Jul20-Jul
3-Aug17-Aug
31-Aug14-Sep
28-Sep12-Oct
26-Oct9-Nov
23-Nov7-Dec
Weekly Coupon Redemptions
Weekly RX Data
SOURCE: IMS Rx & PSKW
• Every redeemed coupon is accompanied by an Rx
• Only one coupon (30 capsules) can be redeemed per patient
• Over 500,000 Rx written since launch
VYVANSE TRxs are growing and separating from coupon redemptions showing that patients are refilling
9
10,045 patients started on VYVANSE have enrolled and completed baseline surveys
At baseline, 84% had used a prescription for ADHD prior to VYVANSE
N = 10,045 Source: VYVANSE New Start Patient Experience program
16%
39%14%
6%
11%4% 10% No Prior
Adderall XRConcertaDaytranaFocalin XRStratteraOther
VYVANSE patients reported coming from ADDERALL XR and other brands
10
n=455 Source: VYVANSE New Start Patient Experience program including over 10,000 patients surveyed of whom 39% were formerly ADDERALL XR users. Among these patients, more than half reported that they still experienced the most bothersome symptoms of ADHD. Notes: Most bothersome symptoms reported: First: inattention, second: hyperactivity and third: impulsiveness.
Change in main symptoms after 40 Days with VYVANSE
Worse4%
About the Same21%
Better75%
Among patients who switched from ADDERALL XR to VYVANSE, 75% reported further improvement in their most bothersome symptom
11N=455 Source: VYVANSE New Start Patient Experience program
Intent to Continue VYVANSE After 40 Days
80%
16% 4%
YesMaybeNo
8 out of 10 parents reported they intend to continue their childon VYVANSE after switching from ADDERALL XR
12
-1.80%
5.20%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6/22 6/29 7/6 7/13 7/20 7/27 8/3 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/510/1210/1910/2611/2 11/911/1611/2311/3012/7
Adderall XR Vyvanse Concerta Strattera Generic MPH Generic AMPH
SOURCE: IMS NGPS - Universe
VYVANSE is taking market share from all products in the ADHD category, not just ADDERALL XR
Rx Share Change by ADHD ProductSince VYVANSE Launch
13
450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000
Wk 1 Wk 4 Wk 7Wk 1
0Wk 1
3Wk 1
6Wk 1
9Wk 2
2Wk 2
5Wk 2
8Wk 3
1Wk 3
4Wk 3
7Wk 4
0Wk 4
3Wk 4
6Wk 4
9Wk 5
2TR
xs
ADHD - 2007 ADHD - 2006
VyvanseLaunched July 2007
Labor Day
Holiday Season
ADHD Market
Weekly TRx volume
2007 Actual through 11/16/07
Back to School
Thanksgiving
Back to School is not a one-two week event; It runs through October
14
Managed Care update
Coverage is progressing as planned:
6-9 month post-launch review period on adding new products to formulary is common
Early success – 3 of top 6 targeted MCO’s have added VYVANSE with preferred status
Negotiations with numerous plans are progressing
Parity with ADDERALL XR formulary status expected by 18 months
15
VYVANSE Summary
VYVANSE rapid launch uptake – 5.2% market share as of week 12/7/07
Tracking in line with the industry’s best successor molecule launches
Patients starting on coupons are refilling Rxs
Back to school is not a one-two week event, but lasts a few months
Physicians and Patients are providing very positive feedback on their clinical experience with VYVANSE
Managed Care coverage is progressing as planned
VYVANSE has tremendous growth potential beyond 2009
Very strong IP
Europe
Potential for other indications
SOURCE: IMS NGPS – as at November 16, 2007
17
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Rx
Volu
me
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%
4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%
8.0%9.0%
10.0%
NRx Volume TRx Volume NRx Share TRx Share
NRx Volume 722 3,143 5,340 5,896 6,268 7,689 7,594 8,744 8,571
TRx Volume 725 3,427 7,020 9,258 11,583 14,452 15,429 18,575 19,201
NRx Share 0.8% 3.7% 5.8% 6.6% 6.9% 8.1% 9.0% 9.3% 9.70%
TRx Share 0.3% 1.4% 2.7% 3.6% 4.4% 5.4% 6.3% 6.9% 7.50%
March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov
Source: IMS Monthly NGPS November 2007
LIALDA’s growth continues with 7.5% monthly TRxshare and 9.7% NRx monthly share in November
18
16.9%
6.9%
23.8%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Pentasa Lialda Shire Portfolio
Source: IMS Monthly NPA (NGPS) Restated Feb-June 2007 DataOral 5-ASA Market Definition: Lialda, Pentasa, Asacol, Colazal and Dipentum
Shire GI Portfolio Oral 5-ASA Monthly TRx Share
Total Shire GI monthly share reached 23.8% of 5-ASA Market
19Source: Verispan Patient Parameters Source of Business, June 2007
LIALDA June 2007 Patient Source of Business
Switches, 23%
Continuing, 48%
Restart, 2%
Add On, 2%
New Patients, 26%
LIALDA’s prescriptions are being generated from both new patients and conversions from other brands
21
Expansion of Human Genetic Pipeline through in-licensing agreement with Amicus Therapeutics Inc.
Acquisition of ex-US rights for:
AMIGAL ™, Fabry disease (Phase 2)
PLICERA ™, Gaucher disease (Phase 2)
AT2220, Pompe disease (Phase 1)
Financial terms of the license are geared to the successful development and commercialization of the products
$50m upfront and up to $390m of development and sales-based milestones and;
Royalties on net sales of the products, with tiered, double digit royalty rates
Oral therapies based on novel chaperone technology for Lysosomal Storage Disorders:
This technology has been applied to various defective enzymes as a result of improper folding.
Pharmacological chaperone technology uses small molecules that selectively bind to and stabilize proteins in cells. This leads to improved protein folding into its proper three-dimensional shape. The re-folded enzyme can then be trafficked to the specific location inthe cell to perform its intended biological function.
22
Concluding Remarks 2007 guidance upgraded as revenue growth accelerates
revenue growth to be at least 30% for 2007 (previous guidance: at least 25%)
Excellent Q3 results
Successful ongoing launches
Continuing to demonstrate our ability to execute
VYVANSE – enthusiastic response from physicians and caregivers
ELAPRASE – rapid uptake in US and EU
LIALDA – growth continues – 9.7% share of NRx as of week 12/7/07
FOSRENOL – strong start in Europe
DYNEPO – launched in Q1 2007, good reception
Good progress in strengthening our R&D pipeline
In-licensing agreement with Amicus Therapeutics Inc. 3 oral treatments for: Gaucher, Fabry and Pompe disease
JUVISTA license agreement with Renovo
Positive Phase 2 clinical trial results
SOURCE: IMS NGPS – as at November 2, 2007
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Q3 07 Q3 06 Growth$m $m %
Product Sales 543.1 386.2 41%
Royalties 61.9 60.4
Other Revenues 3.7 2.8
Total Revenues 608.7 449.4 35%
Q3 07 Q3 06 Growth$m $m %
Product Sales 77% 418.6 359.8 16% (excl. new launches)
ELAPRASE 55.1 4.3LIALDA 16.3 0.0FOSRENOL US 16.3 11.4FOSRENOL EU 23% 12.4 0.8VYVANSE 10.6 0.0DAYTRANA 9.4 9.9DYNEPO 4.4 0.0
Product Sales 100% 543.1 386.2 41%
Product Sales from New Launches (%)
13
1923
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1 Q2 Q3
2007
%
Total Revenues
25
Q3 07 Q3 06 Sales US RX* $m $m Growth Growth
ADDERALL XR 249.0 207.6 20% 3%
VYVANSE 10.6 - n/a n/a
DAYTRANA 9.4 9.9 -5% 64%
PENTASA 43.7 36.9 18% 2%
LIALDA 16.3 - n/a n/a
ELAPRASE 55.1 4.3 n/m n/a
REPLAGAL 40.7 32.4 26% n/a
FOSRENOL 28.7 12.2 135% 0%
CARBATROL 19.3 20.4 -5% -5%
XAGRID 16.8 13.3 26% n/a
* Source: IMS Data
Major Product Sales
26
Sales deductions will trend towards a long term rate of approximately 28%.
Q2 deferred revenue sales 55.9 Add Q3 deferred sales 1.9 Less Q3 sales demand (20.9) Deferred revenue at 9/30/07 36.9
Q3TRx ('000)* $m Notes
Sales Demand 217 20.9 Price per TRx = 28.3 (tablets per TRx) x $3.41 (price per tablet)
Restocking 10.2
Underlying gross sales 31.1 100%
Sales coupons (12.3) 39%66%
Wholesaler discounts & rebates (8.2) 27%
Net Sales 10.6 34%
*per IMS
VYVANSE – Gross to Net Sales (Q3 2007)
27
DAYTRANA – Gross to Net Sales (Q3 2007)
Voluntary market withdrawal. This is a one off charge for Q3
Coupon expense to moderate at 10% in 2008.
Sales deductions are expected to trend towards a long term rate of approximately 25%.
Q3TRx ('000)* $m Notes
Sales Demand 183 21.7 Price per TRx = 29.8 (patches per TRx) x $3.98 (price per patch)
Destocking (0.1)
Underlying gross sales 21.6 100%
Sales coupons (3.9) 18%
Returns (4.0) 18% 56%
Wholesaler discounts and rebates (4.3) 20%
Net Sales 9.4 44%
*per IMS
28
Q3 07 Q3 06 Growth$m $m (%)
3TC 36.7 36.5 1% *
ZEFFIX 10.2 9.3 10% **
Other *** 15.0 14.6 3%
Total 61.9 60.4 2%
*Foreign exchange movements have contributed +4% to reported growth **Foreign exchange movements have contributed +6% to reported growth ***Includes REMINYL/RAZADYNE
Royalties
29
(on a non-GAAP basis)
Q3 07 Q3 06 YTD 07 FY 06
COGS 14% 14% 14% 13%
Gross margin 86% 86% 86% 87%
R&D 19% 19% 18% 20%
SG&A 46% 54% 47% 52%
Operating EBITDA (1) 21% 14% 22% 16%
Operating EBITDA margin (% Total Revenue) 29% 26% 31% 28%
This slide contains non GAAP financial measures. They exclude intangible asset amortization in respect of intellectual property charges, the accounting impact of share-based compensation and the effect of certain cash and non-cash items, both recurring and non-recurring, that Shire's management believes are not related to the core performance of Shire’s business.
(1) Excluding royalties
Financial Ratios (% of net product sales)
30
Net Income/EPS
Q3 07 Q3 06 Growth YTD 07Net income ($m) (%)
- GAAP 34.7 87.2
- Adjustments 91.5 (1.5)
- Non GAAP (1) 126.2 (2) 85.7 47%
EPS - ADS (diluted)
- GAAP 18.9c 51.3c
- Non GAAP (1) 66.3c (2) 50.4c 32% 200.4c
(1) These are non GAAP financial measures. They exclude intangible asset amortization charges, the accounting impact of share-based compensation and the effect of certain cash and non-cash items, both recurring and non-recurring, that Shire's management believes are not related to the core performance of Shire’s business.
(2) The Q3 Non GAAP tax rate was 15% (see slide 21) compared to a guidance rate of 26%. This low tax rate was primarily due to a higher level of tax deductible expenditure than forecast in high-tax territories (principally the US) and reductions in specific tax liabilities relating to tax reviews and tax filings which have now been finalised. The impact of this credit was to increase Non GAAP income by approximately $15m and Non GAAP earnings per ADS by approximately 7c.
31
Q3 07 Q3 07 Q3 06 Q3 06$m cents/ADS $m cents/ADS
Net income for diluted EPS (ADS) 34.7 18.9c 87.2 51.3cCost of product sales fair value adjustment - - 6.7 3.9c
In-licensing payments 75.0 39.0c 30.5 18.3c
Gain on disposal of product rights (7.1) (3.6c) (63.0) (37.5c)
Legal settlement provision 27.0 13.8c - -
Intangible asset amortization 31.1 15.9c 14.6 8.7c
SFAS 123R effect 11.7 6.0c 9.1 5.4c
Taxes on above adjustments (46.2) (23.7c) 0.6 0.3c
Non GAAP net income / EPS (ADS) 126.2 66.3c 85.7 50.4c
EPS Reconciliation
32
Asset Sales
Cash flow – Q3 2007
Net cash outflow for Q3 2007 : -33
$ in millions
-61
+1
(2) Shire has a revolving credit facility of $1.2bn which was undrawn at 30 Sept 2007
Cash generation + 200
Fixed asset purchases
Other Financing
-30
Product Milestones-26
+8
Net tax/interest
Renovo-125
(1) Shire’s balance of cash and cash equivalents at 30 Sept 2007 includes $42m of restricted cash and is available to finance payments due to TKT dissenting shareholders (provision at 30 Sept 2007 of $473m)
Cash at 30/6/07 638
Cash outflow Q3 07 (33)
Cash at 30/9/07 (1) (2) 605
Convertible debt (1,100)
Net debt at 30/9/07 (495)
33
Q3 07 YTD 07 Updated Q2Actual Actual FY Guidance FY Guidance
Revenue growth 35% 32% > 30% > 25%
R&D - GAAP ($m) 180.7 363.7
Less SFAS 123R (3.3) (8.8) Noven - (5.9) Renovo (75.0) (75.0)
R&D - Non GAAP ($m) 102.4 274.0 $365m to $375m $340m to $360m
SG&A - GAAP ($m) 286.7 753.5 Less SFAS 123R (7.5) (22.7)
Legal settlement provision (27.0) (27.0)
SG&A - Non GAAP ($m) 252.2 703.8 $955m to $975m $930m to $960m
Updated FY 2007 Guidance
34
Q3 07 YTD 07 Updated Q2Actual Actual FY Guidance FY Guidance
D&A - GAAP ($m) 46.3 107.4 Less amortization (31.1) (64.0) Up 70% Up 80%
Depn - Non GAAP ($m) 15.2 43.4 Up 30% Up 20%
Tax charge (credit) - US GAAP (23.2) 43.9 Less non GAAP adjustments 46.2 63.5
Non GAAP Charge 23.0 107.4
Non GAAP-Income before tax 148.7 477.4
Effective Tax rate 15% 22% Low 20%'s 26%
Updated FY 2007 Guidance (cont.)
35
The study was a double-blind, placebo-controlled, 4-week study with forced dose escalation in 420 adult subjects aged 18 to 55 years with moderate to severe symptomatic ADHD
All VYVANSE doses (30, 50, or 70 mg/d) were highly effective compared with placebo, as shown by ADHD-RS-IV (the primary endpoint)
Significant improvements in ADHD symptoms were observed within the first week of treatment
Adverse event profile was similar to that seen with other ADHD trials in adults. A/Es were mild to moderate in severity and incidence decreased over time
VYVANSE did not worsen sleep quality5
VYVANSE demonstrated strong efficacy in Adults with ADHD in a very large Phase III study