morning note phillip securities research pte...

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MCI (P) 129/11/2012 Ref No: SGMN2013_0037 1 of 16 Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd Singapore Morning Note 25 February 2013 Fundamental Call BOUSTEAD S’PORE – Initiation (Joshua Tan) Recommendation: BUY Previous Close: S$1.27 Fair Value: S$1.80 Company Overview Boustead operates market leading infrastructure related businesses: Geospatial Technology (30% PBT), Industrial Property Design & Build + Property Portfolio (60%), Water & Wastewater Engineering (0%), and Energy (10%) Related Engineering. Boustead also generates strong excess cash. Company Background Boustead’s modern history can be traced to CEO Mr. Wong Fong Fui’s control of the company since 1996. Core business focus since then has been: 1. Geospatial Technology Division has exclusive country license in Australia, S’pore, Indonesia, Malaysia and 3 other Asian countries, to distribute and service support, world leading geographical information systems (GIS) by ESRI Inc. ESRI, which has 41% global market dominance is the gold standard in GIS. GIS is data populated geographical mapping, which forms the basis for governments and large corporations to both plan and real time optimize infrastructure and other assets. 2. Industrial Real Estate Solutions designs & builds high value added industrial property for MNCs on a full turnkey basis – from architecture, industrial design, civil & structural engineering, construction project management, to TOP. Only two other known competitors have such one-stop shop (full turnkey) capabilities. Division also owns a growing industrial property portfolio. 3. Energy Related Engineering is a global leading specialist (3 other competitors globally) in direct-fired process heater systems (the heart of the refining process) and waste heat recovery systems for the downstream oil & gas and petrochemical industries. 4. Water Related Engineering designs, engineers and constructs turnkey water and wastewater treatment plants for industrial and municipal applications. Investment Actions: We initiate coverage on Boustead with a BUY recommendation at S$1.27 (9.4x p/e and 5.5% yield, FY03/13f EPS, DPS), with a discounted free cash to equity derived fair value target price of S$1.80 (13.4x p/e and 3.9% yield FY03/13f EPS, DPS), based on the following investment merits. Investment merits: Geospatial earnings, which drives over 30% of Group PBT, is likely to see earnings dependably grow at 12-13% CAGR under impressive economic moat conditions. Industrial Portfolio to expand by 35% from 75.3k sqm to 101.8k sqm, will boost recurring rental income from S$13.5m to an estimated S$18m. Recurring Income set to rise, margins expand: Between Geospatial’s predictable growth and Boustead’s industrial property portfolio, recurring income is set to rise from 42% PBT this FY to over 50% PBT in 2 years (see Pg.8). Industrial D&B: We expect a strong flow of D&B contracts as Singapore upgrades to the next phase of high value-added industrial space replacing older lower value-added space moving out. Boustead, one of three full turnkey design and builders of high value added industrial space is well positioned to ride this trend. Free Cash Flow to deploy: We are struck by how efficiently Boustead’s earnings converts into actual cash, and since maintenance capex is only about 5% earnings, this leaves plenty room for dividends and making value accreting investments. On a 5 year average, Boustead’s payout ratio has been ~52%, which leaves the remainder of retained cash for new investments, which so far have been: expanding the Industrial Portfolio, OM Holdings, and a stake in a Beijing premium mixed development. NOL Ltd – Results (Derrick Heng) Recommendation: Neutral Previous close: S$1.23 Fair value: S$1.32 A weak end to the year with disappointing rates and volume for the liner business. Achieved US$504mn of cost savings in the year. Guided for better performance in FY13E. Downgrade to Neutral with revised TP of S$1.32. Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

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Page 1: Morning Note Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltdinternetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/...Geospatial earnings, which drives over 30% of Group PBT, is likely to see earnings

MCI (P) 129/11/2012 Ref No: SGMN2013_0037 1 of 16

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

Singapore

Morning Note

25 February 2013

Fundamental Call

BOUSTEAD S’PORE – Initiation (Joshua Tan) Recommendation: BUY Previous Close: S$1.27 Fair Value: S$1.80 Company Overview Boustead operates market leading infrastructure related businesses: Geospatial Technology (30% PBT), Industrial Property Design & Build + Property Portfolio (60%), Water & Wastewater Engineering (0%), and Energy (10%) Related Engineering. Boustead also generates strong excess cash. Company Background Boustead’s modern history can be traced to CEO Mr. Wong Fong Fui’s control of the company since 1996. Core business focus since then has been: 1. Geospatial Technology Division has exclusive country license in Australia, S’pore, Indonesia, Malaysia and 3 other Asian countries, to

distribute and service support, world leading geographical information systems (GIS) by ESRI Inc. ESRI, which has 41% global market dominance is the gold standard in GIS. GIS is data populated geographical mapping, which forms the basis for governments and large corporations to both plan and real time optimize infrastructure and other assets.

2. Industrial Real Estate Solutions designs & builds high value added industrial property for MNCs on a full turnkey basis – from architecture, industrial design, civil & structural engineering, construction project management, to TOP. Only two other known competitors have such one-stop shop (full turnkey) capabilities. Division also owns a growing industrial property portfolio.

3. Energy Related Engineering is a global leading specialist (3 other competitors globally) in direct-fired process heater systems (the heart of the refining process) and waste heat recovery systems for the downstream oil & gas and petrochemical industries.

4. Water Related Engineering designs, engineers and constructs turnkey water and wastewater treatment plants for industrial and municipal applications.

Investment Actions: We initiate coverage on Boustead with a BUY recommendation at S$1.27 (9.4x p/e and 5.5% yield, FY03/13f EPS, DPS), with a discounted free cash to equity derived fair value target price of S$1.80 (13.4x p/e and 3.9% yield FY03/13f EPS, DPS), based on the following investment merits. Investment merits: Geospatial earnings, which drives over 30% of Group PBT, is likely to see earnings dependably grow at 12-13% CAGR under impressive economic moat conditions. Industrial Portfolio to expand by 35% from 75.3k sqm to 101.8k sqm, will boost recurring rental income from S$13.5m to an estimated S$18m. Recurring Income set to rise, margins expand: Between Geospatial’s predictable growth and Boustead’s industrial property portfolio, recurring income is set to rise from 42% PBT this FY to over 50% PBT in 2 years (see Pg.8). Industrial D&B: We expect a strong flow of D&B contracts as Singapore upgrades to the next phase of high value-added industrial space replacing older lower value-added space moving out. Boustead, one of three full turnkey design and builders of high value added industrial space is well positioned to ride this trend. Free Cash Flow to deploy: We are struck by how efficiently Boustead’s earnings converts into actual cash, and since maintenance capex is only about 5% earnings, this leaves plenty room for dividends and making value accreting investments. On a 5 year average, Boustead’s payout ratio has been ~52%, which leaves the remainder of retained cash for new investments, which so far have been: expanding the Industrial Portfolio, OM Holdings, and a stake in a Beijing premium mixed development. NOL Ltd – Results (Derrick Heng) Recommendation: Neutral Previous close: S$1.23 Fair value: S$1.32 A weak end to the year with disappointing rates and volume for the liner business. Achieved US$504mn of cost savings in the year. Guided for better performance in FY13E. Downgrade to Neutral with revised TP of S$1.32. Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

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Morning Note 25 February 2013

2 of 16

Fundamental Call Wilmar International Limited – Results (Nicholas Ong) Recommendation: Neutral Previous close: S$3.63 Fair value: S$3.79 FY12 core profit of US$1.2bn (+23% yoy) came above expectations FY13-14E earnings raised by 4-8% on better refining margins and recovery in crushing margins Maintain Neutral on revised target price of S$3.79 Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

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Morning Note 25 February 2013

3 of 16

Morning Commentary - STI: +0.02% to 3288.1 - SET: +0.75% to 1540.1 - JCI: +0.40% to 4651.1 - KLCI: +0.50% to 1622.1 - HSCEI: -0.95% to 11317.1 - Hang Seng: -0.54% to 22782.4 - Nikkei 225+0.68% to 11385.9 - ASX200: +0.70% to 3336.2 - India NIFTY: -0.03% to 5850.33 - S&P500: +0.88% to 1515.6 MARKET OUTLOOK: By Ng Weiwen, Macro Analyst Nikkei 225: A breakout (and hence attractive trading opportunity) is on the cards for the Nikkei 225. The Nikkei 225 and USDJPY has trading within a range in recent session. For the Nikkei 225, it might be an opportune time to enter tactical trading positions ahead of this week's nomination of the next BoJ Governor - the key event risk that will trigger a breakout. Markets view candidates Iwata as the most dovish, followed by Kuroda and Muto. Trading Idea: So with a short-term trading horizon, clients can consider a tactical long position if Iwata is appointed as that will a big negative for the JPY (Japanese Yen) and consequently likely a positive for the Nikkei. On the other end of the spectrum, clients can consider a tactical short position –using CFDs- if Muto is appointed as that might disappoint some Nikkei bulls. Regardless of who the next BoJ Governor will be, do note that the Nikkei might pull back from its recent high after a short bout of breakout as there is a significant probability that markets might ‘sell the fact’ once the announcement is made. Nonetheless, on a medium term investment horizon, we are cautiously optimistic about Japan equities on account of the factors reiterated most recently on this page (Feb 19). [ETF: Nomura ETF Nikkei 225; CFD: Japan 225 Index JPY100 CFD (Nikkei 225)] HSCEI, HSI: Selling pressure is likely to intensify in the near term for the HSCEI and HSI (consistent with what we have been guiding on this page) after both indices slipped below their 50dma support levels on account of further property tightening measures. Specifically, beginning Sat (23 Feb), Hong Kong will see a doubling of stamp duties -applied to all property transactions, coupled with lower LTV ratios. Property curbs are also on the cards for China on the back of an increase in home prices which will likely prompt the government to continue with tightening measures to rein in increases in property prices. Clients might want to consider short positions in H Shares Index HKD5 CFD, Hong Kong 40 Index HKD5 CFD for near-term trading. STI: Consistent with what we guided in our morning commentary last Fri, the STI 'hanged precariously below its 10dma'. Looking ahead, the STI is likely to continue treading along the 10dma, pending the outcome of the macro risk events ahead. Near-term support at 3250 level. 3319 (52-week high) will be the immediate resistance level, followed by 3400 psychological resistance level and subsequently 3800 major key resistance. SG Fixed Income: UK lost its AAA credit rating, with Moody's reducing its domestic and foreign currency bond ratings by one notch. The downgrade was not entirely unexpected. Recall we have opined in our GMAS reports that traditional safe havens (Treasuries, Gilts) have dubious credit quality. Singapore is now one of the few triple-A rated sovereigns that has a stable outlook (i.e. not at risk of downgrade). Thus, Singapore government bonds continue to offer an attractive proposition to international investors, with currency appreciation gains to boot. Market Outlook for the Week Ahead: Markets will likely get jittery this week in view of the macro risk events ahead: (i) 24th -25thFeb Italian elections (which is still evolving dynamically at the time of this writing). A governing majority by Berlusconi (though not our base case scenario) will cast doubt on Italian reform commitments. (ii) Political gridlock (again!) in negotiations over the impending 1st March sequestration in the US. Any pull back in equity prices -on account of macro uncertainties- offer an attractive point of entry to accumulate our OWs on China - Hong Kong (compelling valuations), Singapore (attractive dividend yield of 3.3% and construction boom), Thailand and Philippines (resilient domestic demand). (All equity indices mentioned in this note are tradable with Phillip CFDs or ETFs) SECTOR/STRATEGY REPORTS: - Sector Reports: Bank, 1 Feb / Property, 16 Jan / Gaming, 4 Jan / REIT, 31 Dec / Telecommunications, 12 Dec / Commodities, 3 Dec - Country Strategy: Thai, 7 Feb / China & HK, 28 Jan / S’pore, 26 Dec - Global Macro, Asset Strategy: 24 Jan, Update / 4 Jan / US, 21 Dec / ASEAN, 5 Dec Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

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Morning Note 25 February 2013

4 of 16

Macro Data In UK, BOE plans to sign a deal on a 3 year yuan swap with PBOC, the central bank of China, to finance trade and direct investment between the two countries. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said to cement London as a western hub for the yuan market. A separate report shows that UK lost its AAA credit rating by Moody’s due to its weak outlook for economic growth. The cut is likely to increase political pressure on George Osborne to scale back his fiscal squeeze as the economic recovery struggles to gain traction. The U.K. economy shrank 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of last year from the prior three- month period, leaving the country on the brink of an unprecedented triple-dip recession. In China, 53 out of 70 major cities reported m-m gains in new home price in Jan, compared to 54 in Dec. On y-y basis, 53 out of the 70 major cities reported y-y gains, significantly higher than the 40 reading in Dec. The rising new home price adds case to the State’s Council’s reiteration of steadfast effort in curbing housing market, which has sent SHCOMP index to plunge by 4.86%, marking the biggest weekly loss in 20 months. A separate report announced that the nation will expand its short-selling program on 28 Feb by allowing selected brokerages to borrow shares from institutional investors. We do not expect much selling pressure from the expansion of short selling program as China’s equity market is moderately undervalued according to the low P/Es and the economic recovery is likely to continue. In Hong Kong, the government doubled the sales tax on property costing more than HK$2 mil and targeted commercial real estate for the first time in order to curb the bubble risks in the city’s real estate market. And the Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority also announced to tighten mortgage terms for commercial properties and parking spaces. Currently registering the world’s highest housing prices, Hong Kong’s property market remains subject to inflating pressure due to the huge influx of mainland wealthy buyers and low interest rate environment. The newly announced tightening measures have shown the government’s determination to curb housing prices. Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

Source: Bloomberg

STI - Index Members

3.7%

2.1% 1.4% 0.9%

0.7%

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.2%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.5%

-0.6%

-0.9%

-0.9%

-1.0%

-1.2%

-1.4%

-2.6%

-4.0% -4.7%-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Genting S

P

Noble G

roup

Jardine Mat.

UO

B

SPH

Jardine C&

C

DBS

HK Land

Capitaland

SIA

Eng.

Singtel

OC

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Olam

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Golden A

gri-R.

GLP

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fortDelG

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Keppel C

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SG

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Morning Note 25 February 2013

5 of 16

Company Results

Revenue Net Profit S/N Company Name Q/HY/FY Currency,

Units Current Previous Change (%) Current Previous Change

(%) 1 Wilmar International FY12 US$M 45,463 44,710 1.7 1,255 1,601 -21.6 2 Superbowl FY12 S$M 17.1 17.2 -0.5 12.8 7.4 73.2 3 NOL FY12 US$ 9,512 9,211 3.3 -419 -478 -12.3 4 Tat Seng Packaging Grp Ltd FY12 S$M 179.9 166.8 7.8 7.7 4.4 74.2 5 Lee Metal Group FY12 S$M 696.2 773.6 -10.0 26.9 18.9 42.2 6 BBR Holdings (S) Ltd FY12 S$M 274.2 413.3 -33.7 13.0 20.1 -35.6 7 Baker Tech Ltd FY12 S$M 98.2 81.1 21.1 83.4 7.6 NM 8 JEP Holdings Ltd FY12 S$M 36.0 23.8 50.9 1.1 -2.4 NM 9 AEM Holdings Ltd FY12 S$M 74.5 99.3 -24.9 -1.4 6.8 -120.4

10 UPP Holdings Ltd FY12 S$M 50.0 51.1 -2.2 2.0 -0.6 NM Source: SGX Masnet

Company Highlights Federal International (2000) Ltd wishes to provide profit guidance on the Group’s unaudited results for the fourth quarter ended 31 December 2012. The Group’s Q4FY2012 operating results were mainly weighed down by accrual of sales related commission and impairment relating to the Group’s investment in the industrial water plant in Chengdu, China. The Chengdu water plant obtained its operating license in 2012 and commenced commercial operations from August 2012. However, impairment was made due to low output volume and lower guaranteed payments received. (Closing price: S$0.053, +6.0%) EMS Energy Limited announced that the Group is expected to report a loss for its full year results ended 31 December 2012. The Group expects to report a loss for FY2012 mainly attributable to the following reasons: (a) Reduction in operating profit mainly due to the reduction in turnover and gross profit. (The reduction in turnover was mainly attributable to fewer new signification projects secured in FY2012 coupled with delays in several project schedules by customers in relation to the Group’s EES segment); (b) Provision for doubtful debts incurred in respect of certain collectibles from an overseas customer due to the delay in customers’ overall project schedule; (c) Goodwill written-off and loss on disposal of a core segment of the Company; and (d) Increase in operating expenses mainly attributed to the increase in research and development expenditures, business operational expenses in China, depreciation expenses and certain office operational expenses. (Closing price: S$0.045, +2.3%) TEE International Limited announced that in connection with the Proposed Restructuring, the Proposed Spin-Off and the Proposed Listing, the Company has, today, entered into a restructuring agreement with its wholly-owned subsidiary, TEE Land Private Limited (“TEE Land”). TEE Land would be the holding company for the subsidiaries in the property development business in connection with the Proposed Listing. Pursuant to the Restructuring Agreement, TEE Land will acquire the entire issued and paid-up share capital in each of TEE Realty Pte. Ltd., TEE Property Pte. Ltd., TEE Development Pte. Ltd., Development 83 Pte. Ltd., TEE Homes Pte. Ltd. and Development 72 Pte. Ltd. (collectively, the “Sale Companies”). The consideration for the transfer of the shares in the Sale Companies shall be S$15,968,999, after taking into account the audited net asset value of the Sale Companies as at 30 November 2012, and the Consideration shall be satisfied by way of allotment and issuance of 15,968,999 ordinary shares in TEE Land to the Company. As part of the Proposed Restructuring and in line with the objective of the Proposed Restructuring to transfer only the property development businesses to be held by TEE Land, Chewathai Ltd will concurrently be transferring its entire equity interests in Global Environmental Technology Co., Ltd., which is engaged in the water treatment business, in the following proportion: (i) 49% of such equity interests to TEE Resources Pte. Ltd. (a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company); and (ii) 51% of such equity interests to Chartchewa Co. Ltd. The Board further wishes to announce that TEE Land has, today, based on negotiations commencing in October 2012, entered into a subscription agreement with certain investors, pursuant to which the Pre-IPO investors will subscribe for new ordinary shares in TEE Land amounting to a total aggregate investment by the Pre-IPO Investors of S$4,000,000. A condition precedent of the subscription by the Pre-IPO Investors shall be that the Proposed Restructuring is completed. TEE Land shall utilise the proceeds from the Investment for the general working capital purposes and/or to acquire new land. (Closing price: S$0.405, +1.3%) Sinwa Limited announced, after preliminary assessment of the Group’s draft unaudited financial results for the full year ended 31 December 2012, that the Group is expected to record a loss in FY2012. The loss in FY2012 was mainly due to losses from the engineering and charter businesses which has been affected by the slowdown in the marine sector, the impairment losses from Nordic International Limited and Yakki International Pte. Limited and the fluctuation in foreign currency especially the depreciation of the United States dollar against the Singapore dollar. (Closing price: S$0.115, - ) BH Global Marine Limited issued a profit guidance statement in respect of the Unaudited Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter ended 31 December 2012 of the Group. The Group expects to report a loss for the 4QFY2012 Results. The Board’s guidance is mainly due to the following factors:- 1. Write-off of deposit for purchase of land in Batam; 2. Write-off of inventory; and 3. Lower gross margin resulting in a loss to the Group’s Engineering Services division due to the depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah and US Dollar against the Singapore Dollar. (Closing price: S$0.180, -) Source: SGX Masnet, The Business Times

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Morning Note 25 February 2013

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81.62 +0.17% 293.52 +0.13%

114.17 -2.19% 1.962 -0.01%

1,581.40 -0.14% 14,000.57 +0.86%

553.77 -0.08% Straits Times Index 3,288.13 +0.02%

22,782.44 -0.54% 11,385.94 0.68%

Source: Bloomberg

Gold (US$/Oz) DJI

MSCI Asia x-Japan

Hang Seng Index Nikkei 225 Index

Dollar Index ThomReuters/JefferiesCRB

Crude oil, Brent (US$/bbl) US Treasury 10yr Yield

1.201.401.601.802.002.202.40

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

17,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,000

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

7,500

8,500

9,500

10,500

11,500

12,500

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

78

80

82

84

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

260

280

300

320

340

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

80

90

100

110

120

130

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

420440460480500520540560580

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

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Morning Note 25 February 2013

7 of 16

Company Analyst Date of Last Report

Rating Target Price (S$)

Current Price (S$)

Difference to Target Price (%)

GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD Nicholas Ong 24-Dec-12 Accumulate 0.680 0.650 4.6%WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LTD Nicholas Ong 25-Feb-13 Neutral 3.79 3.63 4.4%

GENTING SINGAPORE PLC Ken Ang 22-Feb-13 Neutral 1.41 1.56 -9.3%COMBINE WILL INTERNATIONAL H Chan Wai Chee 20-Dec-12 Buy 0.93 0.75 24.0%

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD Ken Ang 7-Feb-13 Accumulate 15.80 15.19 4.0%OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP Ken Ang 18-Feb-13 Reduce 8.84 10.00 -11.6%UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD Ken Ang 21-Dec-12 Accumulate 20.95 19.64 6.7%SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LTD Ken Ang 23-Jan-13 Accumulate 7.88 7.57 4.1%

CAPITALAND LTD Bryan Go 22-Feb-13 Accumulate 4.05 3.91 3.6%CAPITAMALLS ASIA LTD Bryan Go 8-Feb-13 Neutral 2.11 2.09 1.0%HO BEE INVESTMENT LTD Bryan Go 8-Nov-12 Neutral 1.44 1.94 -25.6%KEPPEL LAND LTD Bryan Go 25-Jan-13 Neutral 4.24 4.17 1.7%OVERSEAS UNION ENTERPRISE Bryan Go 19-Nov-12 Neutral 2.83 2.89 -2.1%SC GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS LTD Bryan Go 14-Jan-13 Neutral 1.80 1.80 0.3%GLOBAL PREMIUM HOTELS LTD Chan Wai Chee 9-Nov-12 Buy 0.305 0.27 13.0%STAMFORD LAND CORP LTD Chan Wai Chee 20-Dec-12 Buy 0.76 0.57 34.5%SINGXPRESS LAND LTD Chan Wai Chee 16-Oct-12 Restricted 0.017

CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS Travis Seah 31-Jan-13 Neutral 2.130 2.00 6.5%PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE Travis Seah 28-Jan-13 Accumulate 2.45 2.39 2.5%SABANA SHARIAH COMP IND REIT Travis Seah 21-Jan-13 Neutral 1.19 1.24 -3.6%

SATS LTD Derrick Heng 31-Jan-13 Accumulate 3.33 2.95 12.9%SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD Derrick Heng 6-Feb-13 Buy 6.10 4.86 25.5%SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING Derrick Heng 18-Feb-13 Accumulate 4.50 4.21 6.9%KEPPEL CORP LTD Nicholas Ong 25-Jan-13 Accumulate 12.38 11.59 6.8%SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD Change of Analyst 5.24SEMBCORP MARINE LTD Change of Analyst 4.51HU AN CABLE HOLDINGS LTD Chan Wai Chee 21-Dec-12 Buy 0.164 0.14 20.6%SUNPOWER GROUP LTD Chan Wai Chee 20-Dec-12 Buy 0.250 0.20 27.6%PAN-UNITED CORP LTD Joshua Tan 24-Dec-12 Buy 0.880 0.94 -5.9%

SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD Derrick Heng 13-Feb-13 Accumulate 13.00 10.90 19.3%TIGER AIRWAYS HOLDINGS LTD Derrick Heng 25-Jan-13 Sell 0.65 0.74 -12.2%NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES LTD Derrick Heng 25-Feb-13 Neutral 1.32 1.23 7.8%SMRT CORP LTD Derrick Heng 30-Jan-13 Sell 1.41 1.63 -13.2%COMFORTDELGRO CORP LTD Derrick Heng 13-Feb-13 Neutral 1.83 1.93 -4.9%HENGYANG PETROCHEMICAL LOGIS Chan Wai Chee 21-Dec-12 Buy 0.27 0.250 8.0%

SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD Ken Ang 15-Feb-13 Neutral 3.31 3.53 -6.2%STARHUB LTD Ken Ang 8-Feb-13 Reduce 3.61 4.09 -11.7%M1 LTD Ken Ang 22-Jan-13 Neutral 2.41 2.78 -13.3%

Commodities & Supply Chain Managers

Consumer Goods

Banking & Finance

Property (Developers)

Property (REITS)

Industrials (Capital Goods)

Industrials (Transportation)

Technology & Communications

Phillip Securities Research - Singapore Stocks Coverage

Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

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Morning Note 25 February 2013

8 of 16

FTSE ST Breakdown (3M % Change)

STI 10.0%

10.6%

10.7%

10.0%

25.6%10.9%

13.4%

8.7%

7.9%

11.3%

9.2%

18.5%

12.1%

ST China

ST Real Estate

ST Re Invest Trust

ST Oil & Gas

ST Basic Materials

ST Industrials

ST Consumer Goods

ST Consumer Service

ST Telecommunicate

ST Utilites

ST Financials

ST Technology17.8%

ST Healthcare

Source: Bloomberg

Last % Chg0.002 100.00.077 28.30.011 22.20.157 13.80.185 7.6

Last % Chg0.485 -10.20.145 -8.80.375 -6.30.520 -5.50.128 -5.2

CEDAR STRATEGIC HOLDINGS LTD

IFS CAPITAL LTDMFS TECHNOLOGY LTD

AVIC INTL INVESTMENTS LTD

8TELECOM INTERNATIONAL HLDGSSource: Bloomberg

MIDAS HOLDINGS LTD

DIGILAND INTERNATIONAL LTDEUROPTRONIC GROUP LTD

Top Gainers (%)FTSE ST Market Cap. Breakdown (3M % Change)

Turnover ('mn shares)

Top Losers (%)

ERATAT LIFESTYLE LTD

UNCHANGED

DESIGN STUDIO FURNITURE MFGR

Source: Bloomberg Source: SGX

4,3171,685

263196496

Turnover (S$'mn)UPDOWN

19.4%

10.6% 33.6%

ST All Share

ST Fledgling

ST Small Cap

ST Mid Cap

STI10.0%

10.6%

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Source: Bloomberg

World Index

JCI 0.40% 4,651.12

HSI -0.54% 22,782.44

KLCI 0.50% 1,622.08

NIKKEI 0.68% 11,385.94

KOSPI 0.18% 2,018.89

SET 0.75% 1,540.13

SHCOMP -0.51% 2,314.16 SENSEX -0.04% 19,317.01

ASX 0.76% 5,018.15

FTSE 100 0.70% 6,335.70

DOW 0.86% 14,000.57

S&P 500 0.88% 1,515.60

NASDAQ 0.97% 3,161.82 COLOMBO 0.17% 5,735.61

STI 0.02% 3,288.13

ETF % Change Change LastCIMB FTSE ASEAN 40 +0.45 +0.05 11.15DB X-TRACKERS CSI300 UCITS -0.37 -0.03 8.16DB X-TRACKERS FTSE CHINA 25 -1.57 -0.47 29.40DB X-TRACKERS FTSE VIETNAM -1.24 -0.32 25.43DB X-TRACKERS MSCI INDONESIA +1.24 +0.20 16.29DB X-TRACKERS MSCI WORLD TRN -1.93 -0.07 3.56DB X-TRACKERS S&P 500 INV DA -0.30 -0.10 32.80DB X-TRACKERS S&P/ASX 200 UC -0.17 -0.07 40.74ISHARES MSCI INDIA INDEX ETF +0.48 +0.03 6.33LYXOR ETF CHINA ENTERPRISE -0.67 -0.10 14.80LYXOR ETF COMMODITIES CRB-CD -1.79 -0.05 2.75LYXOR ETF MSCI AC ASIA EX JP -1.62 -0.08 4.86NIKKO AM SINGAPORE STI ETF -0.30 -0.01 3.33SPDR GOLD TRUST +1.09 +1.66 153.46SPDR STRAITS TIMES INDEX ETF +0.91 +0.03 3.31UNITED SSE 50 CHINA ETF -3.72 -0.07 1.81

ETF Perform ance

Source: Bloomberg

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EX Date Company Type Net Amount Currency Frequency Record Date Payout Date2/25/2013 WESTMINSTER TRAVEL LTD Interim 0.0928 HKD Irreg 2/27/2013 3/12/20132/25/2013 SILVERLAKE AXIS LTD 2nd Interim 0.0070 SGD Quarter 2/27/2013 3/15/20132/25/2013 LUM CHANG HOLDINGS LTD Interim 0.0075 SGD Semi-Anl 2/27/2013 3/14/20132/26/2013 COSMOSTEEL HOLDINGS LTD Regular Cash 0.0125 SGD Annual 2/28/2013 3/14/20132/26/2013 JAYA HOLDINGS LTD Interim 0.0050 SGD Irreg 2/28/2013 3/15/20132/27/2013 DIAGEO PLC-SPONSORED ADR Regular Cash 1.1272 USD Semi-Anl 3/1/2013 4/12/20132/28/2013 INCH KENNETH KAJANG RUBBER Interim 0.3000 GBp Irreg 3/4/2013 3/25/20133/1/2013 TRANSPAC INDUSTRIAL HLDG LTD Interim 0.0960 SGD Irreg 3/5/2013 3/19/20133/4/2013 TAI SIN ELECTRIC LTD Interim 0.0075 SGD Semi-Anl 3/6/2013 3/15/20133/4/2013 VIZ BRANZ LTD Interim 0.0100 SGD Irreg 3/6/2013 3/20/2013

Corporate Action : Dividend

Source: Bloomberg

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Name Expected Report DateAdvanced Systems Automation Ltd February 25, 2013ARA Asset Management Ltd February 25, 2013Armstrong Industrial Corp Ltd February 25, 2013CEI Contract Manufacturing Ltd February 25, 2013Dragon Group International Ltd February 25, 2013Heatec Jietong Holdings Ltd February 25, 2013Innopac Holdings Ltd February 25, 2013Matex International Ltd February 25, 2013Megachem Ltd February 25, 2013Wheelock Properties Singapore Ltd February 25, 2013XP Pow er Ltd February 25, 2013Asia Pacific Brew eries Ltd February 26, 2013Avago Technologies Ltd February 26, 2013BH Global Marine Ltd February 26, 2013Cedar Strategic Holdings Ltd February 26, 2013CSE Global Ltd February 26, 2013Elec & Eltek International Co Ltd February 26, 2013Gallant Venture Ltd February 26, 2013Hong Leong Finance Ltd February 26, 2013Hotel Royal Ltd February 26, 2013HTL International Holdings Ltd February 26, 2013IFS Capital Ltd February 26, 2013Miclyn Express Offshore Ltd February 26, 2013Midas Holdings Ltd February 26, 2013Nordic Group Ltd February 26, 2013Rickmers Maritime February 26, 2013S I2I Ltd February 26, 2013SembCorp Industries Ltd February 26, 2013Top Global Ltd February 26, 2013ABR Holdings Ltd February 27, 2013Advanced Holdings Ltd February 27, 2013Advanced Integrated Manufacturing Corp Ltd February 27, 2013Allied Technologies Ltd/Singapore February 27, 2013Amara Holdings Ltd February 27, 2013Asiamedic Ltd February 27, 2013Best World International Ltd February 27, 2013Blumont Group Ltd February 27, 2013CCM Group Ltd February 27, 2013Centurion Corp Ltd February 27, 2013China Haida Ltd February 27, 2013China Merchants Holdings Pacific Ltd February 27, 2013China Yuchai International Ltd February 27, 2013Cogent Holdings Ltd/Singapore February 27, 2013Del Monte Pacif ic Ltd February 27, 2013ECS Holdings Ltd February 27, 2013Far East Group Ltd February 27, 2013Far East Orchard Ltd February 27, 2013First Resources Ltd February 27, 2013GK Goh Holdings Ltd February 27, 2013GMG Global Ltd February 27, 2013Haw Par Corp Ltd February 27, 2013Hotel Properties Ltd February 27, 2013HSR Global Ltd February 27, 2013Hup Soon Global Corp Ltd February 27, 2013Indofood Agri Resources Ltd February 27, 2013Source: Bloomberg

Earning Announcement – Singapore

Calendar

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Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior2/25/2013 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jan -- 0.02 2/25/2013 CPI (MOM) - NSA Jan 0.70% 0.70%2/25/2013 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Feb -- 5.5 2/25/2013 CPI (YoY) Jan 4.10% 4.30%2/26/2013 S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA Dec 0.55% 0.63% 2/26/2013 Industrial Production MoM SA Jan 4.00% 5.40%2/26/2013 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY Dec 6.65% 5.52% 2/26/2013 Industrial Production YoY Jan 5.40% -0.60%2/26/2013 S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind Dec -- 145.82 2/28/2013 M1 Money Supply (YoY) Jan -- 9.00%2/26/2013 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YOY% 4Q -- 3.64% 2/28/2013 M2 Money Supply (YoY) Jan -- 7.20%2/26/2013 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI 4Q -- 135.67 2/28/2013 Credit Card Bad Debts Jan -- 19.1M2/26/2013 House Price Index MoM Dec 0.60% 0.60% 2/28/2013 Credit Card Billings Jan -- 3694.5M2/26/2013 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 4Q -- 1.10% 2/28/2013 Bank Loans & Advances (YoY) Jan -- 16.70%2/26/2013 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Feb -- -12 3/4/2013 Electronics Sector Index Feb -- 49.92/26/2013 Consumer Confidence Feb 61.2 58.6 3/4/2013 Purchasing Managers Index Feb -- 50.22/26/2013 New Home Sales Jan 385K 369K 04-08 MAR Foreign Reserves Feb -- $258.84B2/26/2013 New Home Sales MoM Jan 4.30% -7.30% 3/6/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 6-Mar -- 783012/27/2013 MBA Mortgage Applications 22-Feb -- -1.70% 3/6/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B 6-Mar -- 926672/27/2013 Durable Goods Orders Jan -4.40% 4.60% 3/6/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E 6-Mar -- 91910

US SingaporeEconomic Announcement

Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg

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Contact Information (Singapore Research Team)

Chan Wai Chee Joshua Tan Derrick Heng CEO, Research Head of Research Deputy Head of Research

Special Opportunities Global Macro, Asset Strategy SG Equity Strategist & Transport

+65 6531 1231 +65 6531 1249 +65 6531 1221 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Go Choon Koay, Bryan Travis Seah Ken Ang

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+65 6531 1792 +65 6531 1229 +65 6531 1793 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

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+65 6531 1735 +65 6531 1535 +65 6531 5440 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

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