morning report 09jan2015

2
9-Jan-15 Source: Bloomberg compounded midpoint rate Contact us: Golomt Bank Treasury Division, Ulaanbaatar-210620A, Mongolia; Tel:+976-70127676 , Facsimile: +976-11-311958 Policy Rate Last Prior Last Change date BoM Policy rate 12.00 10.50 07/31/2014 China Target rate 5.60 6.00 11/24/2012 U.S Fund rate 0.25 1.00 12/16/2008 Euro Refinance rate 0.05 0.15 09/04/2014 U.K Official rate 0.50 1.00 05/03/2009 Japan Target rate 0.10 0.30 12/19/2008 Bank of Mongolia Rate Last Prior Last Change date Overnight repo 14.00 12.50 07/31/2014 Overnight deposit 10.00 8.50 08/01/2014 Repo 12.50 11.00 08/02/2014 Money Market Rates Indicator Last 1d% chg YTD% chg LIBOR USD 3M 0.2521 0.00 -1.37 LIBOR EUR 3M 0.0479 1.53 -18.29 LIBOR GBP 3M 0.5599 0.00 -0.72 LIBOR JPY 3M 0.1100 -1.28 -1.91 SHIBOR CNY 3M 4.95 - -10.00 UBIBOR 3 month 12.50 0.00 - Stock Indices Mongolia Related Companies’ Securities Stocks Crncy Volume ths. USD Close 1D % Chg YTD % Chg MMC HKD 10412.4 0.33 0.00 -2.94 SGS HKD 130.1 3.88 2.11 0.52 TRQ USD 3765.0 3.02 0.00 -2.58 Bonds Crncy Yields Mid price Day change DB Bond USD 7.51 96.50 - MMC Bond USD 30.84 66.50 - TDBM 2015 USD 9.23 99.50 - TDBM 2017 CNY 11.76 96.89 -0.00 Mongol 2018 USD 6.95 92.52 0.03 Mongol 2022 USD 7.52 85.91 0.19 Samurai 2023 JPY 0.99 104.32 0.00 Commodity Prices Indicator Last 1D % Chg YTD % Chg Crude oil 50.96 -0.37 -11.11 Gold 1,215.50 0.41 0.79 Copper 6,175.75 -0.11 -3.02 IronOre/Beijing/ 485.00 0.00 0.00 Coal/Australia/ 112.30 -0.18 -0.53 Highlights U.S Dollar Stronger Than $1.18 per Euro Before Payrolls; Yen Weakens Retailers’ December Sales Exceed Estimates Amid U.S. Job Growth Pound Drops to 17-Month Low as BOE Seen Maintaining Rate in 2015 Europe Greek Crisis Jolts QE Juggernaut as ECB Ponders Deflation Danger London Property Slowdown Drags U.K. House-Price Growth Below 10% Europe Stocks Erase 2015 Loss on Central-Bank Stimulus Optimism Asia Asian Stocks Extend Gains as Crude Rallies; Euro Near 9-Year Low Yuan Volatility Doubling Pushes Up Dim Sum Yields: China Credit INSIDE JAPAN: Yen Down; RBC Retains Bullish Stance on USD/JPY Commodity Oil Below $60 Tests U.S. Drive for Energy Independence: Energy Gold Holds Two-Day Drop Ahead of Jobs Report as Dollar Advances Copper Rises on Bets Gain in U.S. Economy Will Bolster Metal Use Foreign Exchange Market 9-Jan-15 9:08 8-Jan-15 0:00 1D % Chg YTD % Chg EUR/USD 1.1804 1.1817 -0.1100 -2.4463 GBP/USD 1.5096 1.5115 -0.1257 -3.1128 USD/CHF 0.9827 0.9837 0.1018 2.4015 USD/CNY 6.2129 6.2147 0.0290 -0.0966 USD/JPY 119.65 119.5300 -0.1003 0.1588 Mongolian Economic Indicators YTD Indicators unit Nov.2013 Nov.2014 Change YoY % Money supply ( M2 ) bln.MNT 1826.9 1689.7 -7.5% CPI index YoY Chg Percent 11.1 10.1 -9.0% Expenditure of Government Budget bln.MNT 3539 4122.6 16.5% Government Budget Balance bln.MNT -166.4 -440.5 -164.7% Imports mln.USD 5855.3 4832.2 -17.5% External trade Balance mln.USD -1994.1 358.2 118.0% -6.36 -1.05 15.31 1.49 -2.77 -0.88 0.45 0.62 0.11 -0.64 0.60 0.11 0.00 -2.39 0.65 0.89 3.58 3.36 2.34 1.79 1.84 1.84 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Commodity - 103.64 Top20-MSE - 14,633.70 Shanghai - 3,293.46 Hang Seng - 23,835.53 Nikkei 225 - 17,252.70 Stoxx 50 - 3,135.08 DAX - 9,837.61 FTSE 100 - 6,569.96 S&P 500 - 2,062.14 NASDAQ - 4,736.19 Dow Jones - 17,907.87 INDICATOR - LAST 1D % Chg 1M % Chg (200.0) (150.0) (100.0) (50.0) 0.0 50.0 100.0 9/23/2014 9/26/2014 9/30/2014 10/2/2014 10/7/2014 10/9/2014 10/14/2014 10/28/2014 11/4/2014 11/6/2014 11/11/2014 11/13/2014 11/19/2014 11/25/2014 12/2/2014 16/19/2014 12/23/2014 12/25/2014 Millions Central bank USD swap auction Buy order from banks BoM sold USD Sell order from banks Bom bought BOM sold USD BOM bought USD BOM sold USD BOM bought USD BOM sold USD BOM bought USD BOM sold USD BOM bought USD BOM sold USD BOM bought USD BOM sold USD BOM bought USD BOM sold USD BOM bought USD

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9-Jan-15

Source: Bloomberg compounded midpoint rate

Contact us: Golomt Bank Treasury Division, Ulaanbaatar-210620A, Mongolia; Tel:+976-70127676, Facsimile: +976-11-311958

Policy Rate Last Prior Last Change date

BoM Policy rate 12.00 10.50 07/31/2014

China Target rate 5.60 6.00 11/24/2012

U.S Fund rate 0.25 1.00 12/16/2008

Euro Refinance rate 0.05 0.15 09/04/2014

U.K Official rate 0.50 1.00 05/03/2009

Japan Target rate 0.10 0.30 12/19/2008

Bank of Mongolia Rate Last Prior Last Change date

Overnight repo 14.00 12.50 07/31/2014

Overnight deposit 10.00 8.50 08/01/2014

Repo 12.50 11.00 08/02/2014

Money Market Rates Indicator

Last 1d% chg YTD% chg

LIBOR USD 3M 0.2521 0.00 -1.37

LIBOR EUR 3M 0.0479 1.53 -18.29

LIBOR GBP 3M 0.5599 0.00 -0.72

LIBOR JPY 3M 0.1100 -1.28 -1.91

SHIBOR CNY 3M 4.95 - -10.00

UBIBOR 3 month 12.50 0.00 -

Stock Indices

Mongolia Related Companies’ Securities

Stocks Crncy Volume

ths. USD Close

1D % Chg

YTD % Chg

MMC HKD 10412.4 0.33 0.00 -2.94

SGS HKD 130.1 3.88 2.11 0.52

TRQ USD 3765.0 3.02 0.00 -2.58

Bonds Crncy Yields Mid price Day

change DB Bond USD 7.51 96.50 -

MMC Bond USD 30.84 66.50 -

TDBM 2015 USD 9.23 99.50 -

TDBM 2017 CNY 11.76 96.89 -0.00

Mongol 2018 USD 6.95 92.52 0.03

Mongol 2022 USD 7.52 85.91 0.19

Samurai 2023 JPY 0.99 104.32 0.00

Commodity Prices

Indicator Last 1D % Chg YTD % Chg

Crude oil 50.96 -0.37 -11.11

Gold 1,215.50 0.41 0.79

Copper 6,175.75 -0.11 -3.02

IronOre/Beijing/ 485.00 0.00 0.00

Coal/Australia/ 112.30 -0.18 -0.53

Highlights U.S

Dollar Stronger Than $1.18 per Euro Before Payrolls; Yen Weakens Retailers’ December Sales Exceed Estimates Amid U.S. Job Growth Pound Drops to 17-Month Low as BOE Seen Maintaining Rate in 2015

Europe Greek Crisis Jolts QE Juggernaut as ECB Ponders Deflation Danger London Property Slowdown Drags U.K. House-Price Growth Below 10% Europe Stocks Erase 2015 Loss on Central-Bank Stimulus Optimism

Asia Asian Stocks Extend Gains as Crude Rallies; Euro Near 9-Year Low Yuan Volatility Doubling Pushes Up Dim Sum Yields: China Credit INSIDE JAPAN: Yen Down; RBC Retains Bullish Stance on USD/JPY

Commodity

Oil Below $60 Tests U.S. Drive for Energy Independence: Energy Gold Holds Two-Day Drop Ahead of Jobs Report as Dollar Advances Copper Rises on Bets Gain in U.S. Economy Will Bolster Metal Use

Foreign Exchange Market

9-Jan-15 9:08 8-Jan-15 0:00 1D % Chg YTD % Chg

EUR/USD 1.1804 1.1817 -0.1100 -2.4463

GBP/USD 1.5096 1.5115 -0.1257 -3.1128

USD/CHF 0.9827 0.9837 0.1018 2.4015

USD/CNY 6.2129 6.2147 0.0290 -0.0966

USD/JPY 119.65 119.5300 -0.1003 0.1588

Mongolian Economic Indicators YTD Indicators unit Nov.2013 Nov.2014

Change YoY %

Money supply ( M2 ) bln.MNT 1826.9 1689.7 -7.5%

CPI index YoY Chg Percent 11.1 10.1 -9.0%

Expenditure of Government Budget bln.MNT 3539 4122.6 16.5%

Government Budget Balance bln.MNT -166.4 -440.5 -164.7%

Imports mln.USD 5855.3 4832.2 -17.5%

External trade Balance mln.USD -1994.1 358.2 118.0%

-6.36

-1.05

15.31

1.49

-2.77

-0.88

0.45

0.62

0.11

-0.64

0.60

0.11

0.00

-2.39

0.65

0.89

3.58

3.36

2.34

1.79

1.84

1.84

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Commodity - 103.64

Top20-MSE - 14,633.70

Shanghai - 3,293.46

Hang Seng - 23,835.53

Nikkei 225 - 17,252.70

Stoxx 50 - 3,135.08

DAX - 9,837.61

FTSE 100 - 6,569.96

S&P 500 - 2,062.14

NASDAQ - 4,736.19

Dow Jones - 17,907.87

INDICATOR - LAST 1D % Chg 1M % Chg

(200.0)

(150.0)

(100.0)

(50.0)

0.0

50.0

100.0

9/2

3/2

014

9/2

6/2

014

9/30

/201

4

10/

2/2

014

10/

7/2

014

10/

9/2

014

10

/14

/201

4

10

/28

/201

4

11/

4/2

014

11/

6/2

014

11

/11

/201

4

11

/13

/201

4

11

/19

/201

4

11

/25

/201

4

12/

2/2

014

16

/19

/201

4

12

/23

/201

4

12

/25

/201

4

Mill

ion

s

Central bank USD swap auction

Buy order from banks

BoM sold USD

Sell order from banks

Bom bought

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

Source: Bloomberg compounded midpoint rate

Contact us: Golomt Bank Treasury Division, Ulaanbaatar-210620A, Mongolia; Tel:+976-70127676, Facsimile: +976-11-311958

2 9-Jan-15 MORNING REPORT Treasury Division

Gov.Bill auction calendar

Government bill type

Announcement date

Trading date

Settlement date

Amount

12 weeks 01/05/2015 01/07/2015 01/12/2015 20 Billion

28 weeks 01/09/2015 01/14/2015 01/19/2015 30 Billion

3 years 01/09/2015 01/14/2015 01/19/2015 10 Billion

12 weeks 01/16/2015 01/21/2015 01/26/2015 25 Billion

52 weeks 01/23/2015 01/28/2015 02/02/2015 20 Billion

5 years 01/23/2015 01/28/2015 02/02/2015 5 Billion

12 weeks 01/30/2015 02/04/2015 02/09/2015 20 Billion

28 weeks 02/06/2015 02/11/2015 02/16/2015 10 Billion

3 years 02/06/2015 02/11/2015 02/16/2015 20 Billion

12 weeks 02/13/2015 02/18/2015 02/23/2015 20 Billion

Economic events Event Survey Actual Prior

GE Factory Orders MoM Nov -0.8% -2.4% 2.5%

GE Factory Orders WDA YoY Nov 1.0% -0.4% 2.4%

EC PPI MoM Nov -0.1% -0.3% -0.4%

EC PPI YoY Nov -1.4% -1.6% -1.3%

EC Retail Sales MoM Nov 0.2% 0.6% 0.4%

EC Retail Sales YoY Nov 0.2% 1.5% 1.4%

EC Consumer Confidence Dec F

(10.90)

(10.90)

(10.90)

UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Jan 375B 375B 375B

UK Bank of England Bank Rate 8-Jan 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

US Initial Jobless Claims 3-Jan 290K 294K 298K

US Continuing Claims 27-

Dec 2360K 2452K 2353K

Economic events calendar Time Event Survey Prior

15:00 GE Industrial Production SA

MoM Nov 0.3% 0.2%

15:00 GE Industrial Production WDA YoY

Nov -0.6% 0.8%

15:00 GE Trade Balance Nov 20.4B 21.9B

15:00 GE Current Account Balance Nov 23.0B 23.1B

15:00 GE Exports SA MoM Nov -1.0% -0.5%

17:30 UK Industrial Production MoM

Nov 0.2% -0.1%

17:30 UK Industrial Production

YoY Nov 1.6% 1.1%

17:30 UK Manufacturing

Production MoM Nov 0.3% -0.7%

17:30 UK Manufacturing

Production YoY Nov 2.3% 1.7%

21:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Dec 240K 321K

21:30 US Two-Month Payroll Net Revision

Dec -- --

21:30 US Change in Private Payrolls

Dec 225K 314K

21:30 US Change in Manufact.

Payrolls Dec 15K 28K

21:30 US Unemployment Rate Dec 5.7% 5.8%

23:00 US Wholesale Inventories

MoM Nov 0.3% 0.4%

Disclaimer:

The information contained in this report is for general information purposes only. The information and opinions contained herein has been compiled or arrived

at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and no

guaranty, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness, reliability or suitability.

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40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

12.00%

12.50%

13.00%

13.50%

14.00%

14.50%

15.00%

15.50%

16.00%

16.50%

17.00%

Mill

ion

s

Government bond auction

Total demand Government sold Min rate

Weighted average rate Max rate