morning report 18dec2014
DESCRIPTION
reportTRANSCRIPT
18-Dec-14
Source: Bloomberg compounded midpoint rate
Contact us: Golomt Bank Treasury Division, Ulaanbaatar-210620A, Mongolia; Tel:+976-70127676, Facsimile: +976-11-311958
Policy Rate Last Prior Last Change date
BoM Policy rate 12.00 10.50 07/31/2014
China Target rate 5.60 6.00 11/24/2012
U.S Fund rate 0.25 1.00 12/16/2008
Euro Refinance rate 0.05 0.15 09/04/2014
U.K Official rate 0.50 1.00 05/03/2009
Japan Target rate 0.10 0.30 12/19/2008
Bank of Mongolia Rate Last Prior Last Change date
Overnight repo 14.00 12.50 07/31/2014
Overnight deposit 10.00 8.50 08/01/2014
Repo 12.50 11.00 08/02/2014
Money Market Rates Indicator
Last 1d% chg YTD% chg
LIBOR USD 3M 0.2454 1.13 -0.30
LIBOR EUR 3M 0.0593 -2.34 -77.69
LIBOR GBP 3M 0.5590 0.00 6.41
LIBOR JPY 3M 0.1114 1.96 -24.64
SHIBOR CNY 3M 6.25 - -1.32
UBIBOR 3 month 12.50 0.00 -
Stock Indices
Mongolia Related Companies’ Securities
Stocks Crncy Volume
ths. USD Close
1D % Chg
YTD % Chg
MMC HKD 5546.5 0.41 5.19 -42.18
SGS HKD 35.0 3.76 2.17 -45.35
TRQ USD 3532.4 2.88 2.86 -12.73
Bonds Crncy Yields Mid price Day
change DB Bond USD 7.59 96.25 -
MMC Bond USD 29.48 67.50 -
TDBM 2015 USD 9.18 99.50 -
TDBM 2017 CNY 11.67 96.95 0.00
Mongol 2018 USD 6.77 92.85 -0.20
Mongol 2022 USD 7.35 86.77 -0.02
Samurai 2023 JPY 1.01 104.18 0.00
Commodity Prices
Indicator Last 1D % Chg YTD % Chg
Crude oil 56.65 0.32 -42.44
Gold 1,192.84 -0.18 -1.01
Copper 6,419.00 0.15 -12.97
IronOre/Beijing/ 505.00 0.00 -35.67
Coal/Tianjinl/ 860.00 0.00 -26.50
Highlights U.S
Dollar Approaches 5-Year High on Fed Rate View; Ruble Rebounds Yellen Doesn’t See Fed Raising Interest Rates Before April Deflation Stalking Many Nations as Oil Takes Toll
Europe Currency Trading Gets Expensive as Oil, Ruble Foster Stresses Ruble Rebounds on Central Bank Stability Steps as Sberbank Soars Draghi Counts Cost of Outflanking ECB’s Home Nation in QE Battle
Asia Abenomics Shocks Japan to Rescue Its Stagnant Economy Japanese Stocks Surge After Fed Pledges Patience on U.S. Rates China Fault Lines: Where a Hard Landing Could Be Exposed in 2015
Commodity
Oil Holds Gains From 5-Year Low as Market Weighs Supplies, Iran Gold Trades Near Two-Week Low as Fed Comments Boost Rates View China Demand Drop Pushes Iron Ore Shipping Rates to 5-Year Low
Foreign Exchange Market
18-Dec-14 9:04 17-Dec-14 0:00 1D % Chg YTD % Chg
EUR/USD 1.2342 1.2413 -0.5720 -10.4939
GBP/USD 1.5583 1.5654 -0.4536 -5.9338
USD/CHF 1.0273 1.0333 0.5841 9.4033
USD/CNY 6.1967 6.1966 -0.0016 -2.2835
USD/JPY 118.64 117.6300 -0.8513 -11.2778
Mongolian Economic Indicators YTD Indicators unit Oct.2013 Oct.2014
Change YoY %
Money supply ( M2 ) bln.MNT 8715.9 9980.3 14.5%
CPI index YoY Chg Percent 9.7 9.3 -4.1%
Expenditure of Government Budget bln.MNT 3539 4122.6 16.5%
Government Budget Balance bln.MNT -183 -278.5 -52.2%
Imports mln.USD 5341 4474.3 -16.2%
External trade Balance mln.USD -1860.8 131.4 -107.1%
-7.34
-3.14
24.62
-4.01
-0.63
-2.19
0.93
-5.55
-1.90
-1.24
-1.87
0.55
0.00
1.31
-0.37
2.46
0.07
-0.20
0.07
2.04
2.12
1.69
-10-8-6-4-2 0 2 4 6 810121416182022242628
Commodity - 108.85
Top20-MSE - 14,594.90
Shanghai - 3,061.02
Hang Seng - 22,585.84
Nikkei 225 - 17,199.12
Stoxx 50 - 3,051.99
DAX - 9,544.43
FTSE 100 - 6,336.48
S&P 500 - 2,012.89
NASDAQ - 4,644.31
Dow Jones - 17,356.87
INDICATOR - LAST 1D % Chg 1M % Chg
(200.0)
(150.0)
(100.0)
(50.0)
0.0
50.0
100.0
9/1
6/2
014
9/1
8/2
014
9/23
/201
4
9/2
6/2
014
9/3
0/2
014
10/
2/2
014
10/
7/2
014
10/
9/2
014
10
/14
/201
4
10
/28
/201
4
11/
4/2
014
11/
6/2
014
11
/11
/201
4
11
/13
/201
4
11
/19
/201
4
11
/25
/201
4
12/
2/2
014
16
/19
/201
4
Mill
ion
s
Central bank USD swap auction
Buy order from banks
BoM sold USD
Sell order from banks
Bom bought
BOM
sold USD BOM bought USD
BOM
sold USD BOM bought USD
BOM
sold USD BOM bought USD
BOM
sold USD BOM bought USD
BOM
sold USD BOM bought USD
BOM
sold USD BOM bought USD
BOM
sold USD BOM bought USD
Source: Bloomberg compounded midpoint rate
Contact us: Golomt Bank Treasury Division, Ulaanbaatar-210620A, Mongolia; Tel:+976-70127676, Facsimile: +976-11-311958
2 18-Dec-14 MORNING REPORT Treasury Division
Gov.Bill auction calendar
Government bill type
Announcement date
Trading date
Settlement date
Amount
12 weeks 11/07/2014 11/12/2014 11/17/2014 40 Billion
28 weeks 11/14/2014 11/19/2014 11/24/2014 40 Billion
5 years 11/14/2014 11/19/2014 11/24/2014 10 Billion
12 weeks 11/21/2014 11/26/2014 12/01/2014 30 Billion
52 weeks 11/28/2014 12/03/2014 12/08/2014 30 Billion
3 years 11/28/2014 12/03/2014 12/08/2014 10 Billion
12 weeks 12/05/2014 12/10/2014 12/15/2014 50 Billion
28 weeks 12/12/2014 12/17/2014 12/22/2014 60 Billion
5 years 12/12/2014 12/17/2014 12/22/2014 10 Billion
12 weeks 12/19/2014 12/24/2014 12/29/2014 50 Billion
Economic events Event Survey Actual Prior
JN Trade Balance Nov -¥992.0B -¥891.9B -¥710.0B
JN Machine Tool Orders YoY Nov F -- 36.6% 36.6%
UK Claimant Count Rate Nov 2.7% 2.7% 2.8%
UK Jobless Claims Change Nov -20.0K -26.9K -20.4K
UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
Oct 5.9% 6.0% 6.0%
EC CPI MoM Nov -- -0.2% -0.2%
EC CPI YoY Nov F
0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
EC CPI Core YoY Nov
F 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
US MBA Mortgage Applications 12-
Dec -- -3.3% 7.3%
US CPI YoY Nov 1.4% 1.3% 1.7%
US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Nov 1.8% 1.7% 1.8%
US Current Account Balance 3Q -$97.5B 0.02 -$98.5B
Economic events calendar Time Event Survey Prior
0:00 GE IFO Business Climate Dec 105.50 104.70
0:00 GE IFO Current Assessment Dec 110.40 110.00
17:00 GE IFO Expectations Dec 100.50 99.70
17:00 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY Nov 4.50% 4.60%
17:00 UK Retail Sales Incl. Auto MoM Nov 0.40% 0.80%
17:30 UK Retail Sales Incl. Auto YoY Nov 4.40% 4.30%
17:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 13-Dec 295K 294K
17:30 US Continuing Claims 6-Dec 2436K 2514K
21:30 US Markit US Composite PMI Dec P -- 56.10
21:30 US Markit US Services PMI Dec P 56.30 56.20
22:45 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
Dec 26.00 40.80
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this report is for general information purposes only. The information and opinions contained herein has been compiled or arrived
at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and no
guaranty, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness, reliability or suitability.
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40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
9.00%
10.00%
11.00%
12.00%
13.00%
14.00%
15.00%
16.00%
17.00%
Mill
ion
s
Government bond auction
Total demand Government sold Min rate
Weighted average rate Max rate