morning report 18dec2014

2
18-Dec-14 Source: Bloomberg compounded midpoint rate Contact us: Golomt Bank Treasury Division, Ulaanbaatar-210620A, Mongolia; Tel:+976-70127676 , Facsimile: +976-11-311958 Policy Rate Last Prior Last Change date BoM Policy rate 12.00 10.50 07/31/2014 China Target rate 5.60 6.00 11/24/2012 U.S Fund rate 0.25 1.00 12/16/2008 Euro Refinance rate 0.05 0.15 09/04/2014 U.K Official rate 0.50 1.00 05/03/2009 Japan Target rate 0.10 0.30 12/19/2008 Bank of Mongolia Rate Last Prior Last Change date Overnight repo 14.00 12.50 07/31/2014 Overnight deposit 10.00 8.50 08/01/2014 Repo 12.50 11.00 08/02/2014 Money Market Rates Indicator Last 1d% chg YTD% chg LIBOR USD 3M 0.2454 1.13 -0.30 LIBOR EUR 3M 0.0593 -2.34 -77.69 LIBOR GBP 3M 0.5590 0.00 6.41 LIBOR JPY 3M 0.1114 1.96 -24.64 SHIBOR CNY 3M 6.25 - -1.32 UBIBOR 3 month 12.50 0.00 - Stock Indices Mongolia Related Companies’ Securities Stocks Crncy Volume ths. USD Close 1D % Chg YTD % Chg MMC HKD 5546.5 0.41 5.19 -42.18 SGS HKD 35.0 3.76 2.17 -45.35 TRQ USD 3532.4 2.88 2.86 -12.73 Bonds Crncy Yields Mid price Day change DB Bond USD 7.59 96.25 - MMC Bond USD 29.48 67.50 - TDBM 2015 USD 9.18 99.50 - TDBM 2017 CNY 11.67 96.95 0.00 Mongol 2018 USD 6.77 92.85 -0.20 Mongol 2022 USD 7.35 86.77 -0.02 Samurai 2023 JPY 1.01 104.18 0.00 Commodity Prices Indicator Last 1D % Chg YTD % Chg Crude oil 56.65 0.32 -42.44 Gold 1,192.84 -0.18 -1.01 Copper 6,419.00 0.15 -12.97 IronOre/Beijing/ 505.00 0.00 -35.67 Coal/Tianjinl/ 860.00 0.00 -26.50 Highlights U.S Dollar Approaches 5-Year High on Fed Rate View; Ruble Rebounds Yellen Doesn’t See Fed Raising Interest Rates Before April Deflation Stalking Many Nations as Oil Takes Toll Europe Currency Trading Gets Expensive as Oil, Ruble Foster Stresses Ruble Rebounds on Central Bank Stability Steps as Sberbank Soars Draghi Counts Cost of Outflanking ECB’s Home Nation in QE Battle Asia Abenomics Shocks Japan to Rescue Its Stagnant Economy Japanese Stocks Surge After Fed Pledges Patience on U.S. Rates China Fault Lines: Where a Hard Landing Could Be Exposed in 2015 Commodity Oil Holds Gains From 5-Year Low as Market Weighs Supplies, Iran Gold Trades Near Two-Week Low as Fed Comments Boost Rates View China Demand Drop Pushes Iron Ore Shipping Rates to 5-Year Low Foreign Exchange Market 18-Dec-14 9:04 17-Dec-14 0:00 1D % Chg YTD % Chg EUR/USD 1.2342 1.2413 -0.5720 -10.4939 GBP/USD 1.5583 1.5654 -0.4536 -5.9338 USD/CHF 1.0273 1.0333 0.5841 9.4033 USD/CNY 6.1967 6.1966 -0.0016 -2.2835 USD/JPY 118.64 117.6300 -0.8513 -11.2778 Mongolian Economic Indicators YTD Indicators unit Oct.2013 Oct.2014 Change YoY % Money supply ( M2 ) bln.MNT 8715.9 9980.3 14.5% CPI index YoY Chg Percent 9.7 9.3 -4.1% Expenditure of Government Budget bln.MNT 3539 4122.6 16.5% Government Budget Balance bln.MNT -183 -278.5 -52.2% Imports mln.USD 5341 4474.3 -16.2% External trade Balance mln.USD -1860.8 131.4 -107.1% -7.34 -3.14 24.62 -4.01 -0.63 -2.19 0.93 -5.55 -1.90 -1.24 -1.87 0.55 0.00 1.31 -0.37 2.46 0.07 -0.20 0.07 2.04 2.12 1.69 -10-8-6-4-2 0 2 4 6 810121416182022242628 Commodity - 108.85 Top20-MSE - 14,594.90 Shanghai - 3,061.02 Hang Seng - 22,585.84 Nikkei 225 - 17,199.12 Stoxx 50 - 3,051.99 DAX - 9,544.43 FTSE 100 - 6,336.48 S&P 500 - 2,012.89 NASDAQ - 4,644.31 Dow Jones - 17,356.87 INDICATOR - LAST 1D % Chg 1M % Chg (200.0) (150.0) (100.0) (50.0) 0.0 50.0 100.0 9/16/2014 9/18/2014 9/23/2014 9/26/2014 9/30/2014 10/2/2014 10/7/2014 10/9/2014 10/14/2014 10/28/2014 11/4/2014 11/6/2014 11/11/2014 11/13/2014 11/19/2014 11/25/2014 12/2/2014 16/19/2014 Millions Central bank USD swap auction Buy order from banks BoM sold USD Sell order from banks Bom bought BOM sold USD BOM bought USD BOM sold USD BOM bought USD BOM sold USD BOM bought USD BOM sold USD BOM bought USD BOM sold USD BOM bought USD BOM sold USD BOM bought USD BOM sold USD BOM bought USD

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Page 1: Morning Report 18Dec2014

18-Dec-14

Source: Bloomberg compounded midpoint rate

Contact us: Golomt Bank Treasury Division, Ulaanbaatar-210620A, Mongolia; Tel:+976-70127676, Facsimile: +976-11-311958

Policy Rate Last Prior Last Change date

BoM Policy rate 12.00 10.50 07/31/2014

China Target rate 5.60 6.00 11/24/2012

U.S Fund rate 0.25 1.00 12/16/2008

Euro Refinance rate 0.05 0.15 09/04/2014

U.K Official rate 0.50 1.00 05/03/2009

Japan Target rate 0.10 0.30 12/19/2008

Bank of Mongolia Rate Last Prior Last Change date

Overnight repo 14.00 12.50 07/31/2014

Overnight deposit 10.00 8.50 08/01/2014

Repo 12.50 11.00 08/02/2014

Money Market Rates Indicator

Last 1d% chg YTD% chg

LIBOR USD 3M 0.2454 1.13 -0.30

LIBOR EUR 3M 0.0593 -2.34 -77.69

LIBOR GBP 3M 0.5590 0.00 6.41

LIBOR JPY 3M 0.1114 1.96 -24.64

SHIBOR CNY 3M 6.25 - -1.32

UBIBOR 3 month 12.50 0.00 -

Stock Indices

Mongolia Related Companies’ Securities

Stocks Crncy Volume

ths. USD Close

1D % Chg

YTD % Chg

MMC HKD 5546.5 0.41 5.19 -42.18

SGS HKD 35.0 3.76 2.17 -45.35

TRQ USD 3532.4 2.88 2.86 -12.73

Bonds Crncy Yields Mid price Day

change DB Bond USD 7.59 96.25 -

MMC Bond USD 29.48 67.50 -

TDBM 2015 USD 9.18 99.50 -

TDBM 2017 CNY 11.67 96.95 0.00

Mongol 2018 USD 6.77 92.85 -0.20

Mongol 2022 USD 7.35 86.77 -0.02

Samurai 2023 JPY 1.01 104.18 0.00

Commodity Prices

Indicator Last 1D % Chg YTD % Chg

Crude oil 56.65 0.32 -42.44

Gold 1,192.84 -0.18 -1.01

Copper 6,419.00 0.15 -12.97

IronOre/Beijing/ 505.00 0.00 -35.67

Coal/Tianjinl/ 860.00 0.00 -26.50

Highlights U.S

Dollar Approaches 5-Year High on Fed Rate View; Ruble Rebounds Yellen Doesn’t See Fed Raising Interest Rates Before April Deflation Stalking Many Nations as Oil Takes Toll

Europe Currency Trading Gets Expensive as Oil, Ruble Foster Stresses Ruble Rebounds on Central Bank Stability Steps as Sberbank Soars Draghi Counts Cost of Outflanking ECB’s Home Nation in QE Battle

Asia Abenomics Shocks Japan to Rescue Its Stagnant Economy Japanese Stocks Surge After Fed Pledges Patience on U.S. Rates China Fault Lines: Where a Hard Landing Could Be Exposed in 2015

Commodity

Oil Holds Gains From 5-Year Low as Market Weighs Supplies, Iran Gold Trades Near Two-Week Low as Fed Comments Boost Rates View China Demand Drop Pushes Iron Ore Shipping Rates to 5-Year Low

Foreign Exchange Market

18-Dec-14 9:04 17-Dec-14 0:00 1D % Chg YTD % Chg

EUR/USD 1.2342 1.2413 -0.5720 -10.4939

GBP/USD 1.5583 1.5654 -0.4536 -5.9338

USD/CHF 1.0273 1.0333 0.5841 9.4033

USD/CNY 6.1967 6.1966 -0.0016 -2.2835

USD/JPY 118.64 117.6300 -0.8513 -11.2778

Mongolian Economic Indicators YTD Indicators unit Oct.2013 Oct.2014

Change YoY %

Money supply ( M2 ) bln.MNT 8715.9 9980.3 14.5%

CPI index YoY Chg Percent 9.7 9.3 -4.1%

Expenditure of Government Budget bln.MNT 3539 4122.6 16.5%

Government Budget Balance bln.MNT -183 -278.5 -52.2%

Imports mln.USD 5341 4474.3 -16.2%

External trade Balance mln.USD -1860.8 131.4 -107.1%

-7.34

-3.14

24.62

-4.01

-0.63

-2.19

0.93

-5.55

-1.90

-1.24

-1.87

0.55

0.00

1.31

-0.37

2.46

0.07

-0.20

0.07

2.04

2.12

1.69

-10-8-6-4-2 0 2 4 6 810121416182022242628

Commodity - 108.85

Top20-MSE - 14,594.90

Shanghai - 3,061.02

Hang Seng - 22,585.84

Nikkei 225 - 17,199.12

Stoxx 50 - 3,051.99

DAX - 9,544.43

FTSE 100 - 6,336.48

S&P 500 - 2,012.89

NASDAQ - 4,644.31

Dow Jones - 17,356.87

INDICATOR - LAST 1D % Chg 1M % Chg

(200.0)

(150.0)

(100.0)

(50.0)

0.0

50.0

100.0

9/1

6/2

014

9/1

8/2

014

9/23

/201

4

9/2

6/2

014

9/3

0/2

014

10/

2/2

014

10/

7/2

014

10/

9/2

014

10

/14

/201

4

10

/28

/201

4

11/

4/2

014

11/

6/2

014

11

/11

/201

4

11

/13

/201

4

11

/19

/201

4

11

/25

/201

4

12/

2/2

014

16

/19

/201

4

Mill

ion

s

Central bank USD swap auction

Buy order from banks

BoM sold USD

Sell order from banks

Bom bought

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

BOM

sold USD BOM bought USD

Page 2: Morning Report 18Dec2014

Source: Bloomberg compounded midpoint rate

Contact us: Golomt Bank Treasury Division, Ulaanbaatar-210620A, Mongolia; Tel:+976-70127676, Facsimile: +976-11-311958

2 18-Dec-14 MORNING REPORT Treasury Division

Gov.Bill auction calendar

Government bill type

Announcement date

Trading date

Settlement date

Amount

12 weeks 11/07/2014 11/12/2014 11/17/2014 40 Billion

28 weeks 11/14/2014 11/19/2014 11/24/2014 40 Billion

5 years 11/14/2014 11/19/2014 11/24/2014 10 Billion

12 weeks 11/21/2014 11/26/2014 12/01/2014 30 Billion

52 weeks 11/28/2014 12/03/2014 12/08/2014 30 Billion

3 years 11/28/2014 12/03/2014 12/08/2014 10 Billion

12 weeks 12/05/2014 12/10/2014 12/15/2014 50 Billion

28 weeks 12/12/2014 12/17/2014 12/22/2014 60 Billion

5 years 12/12/2014 12/17/2014 12/22/2014 10 Billion

12 weeks 12/19/2014 12/24/2014 12/29/2014 50 Billion

Economic events Event Survey Actual Prior

JN Trade Balance Nov -¥992.0B -¥891.9B -¥710.0B

JN Machine Tool Orders YoY Nov F -- 36.6% 36.6%

UK Claimant Count Rate Nov 2.7% 2.7% 2.8%

UK Jobless Claims Change Nov -20.0K -26.9K -20.4K

UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths

Oct 5.9% 6.0% 6.0%

EC CPI MoM Nov -- -0.2% -0.2%

EC CPI YoY Nov F

0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

EC CPI Core YoY Nov

F 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

US MBA Mortgage Applications 12-

Dec -- -3.3% 7.3%

US CPI YoY Nov 1.4% 1.3% 1.7%

US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Nov 1.8% 1.7% 1.8%

US Current Account Balance 3Q -$97.5B 0.02 -$98.5B

Economic events calendar Time Event Survey Prior

0:00 GE IFO Business Climate Dec 105.50 104.70

0:00 GE IFO Current Assessment Dec 110.40 110.00

17:00 GE IFO Expectations Dec 100.50 99.70

17:00 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY Nov 4.50% 4.60%

17:00 UK Retail Sales Incl. Auto MoM Nov 0.40% 0.80%

17:30 UK Retail Sales Incl. Auto YoY Nov 4.40% 4.30%

17:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 13-Dec 295K 294K

17:30 US Continuing Claims 6-Dec 2436K 2514K

21:30 US Markit US Composite PMI Dec P -- 56.10

21:30 US Markit US Services PMI Dec P 56.30 56.20

22:45 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook

Dec 26.00 40.80

Disclaimer:

The information contained in this report is for general information purposes only. The information and opinions contained herein has been compiled or arrived

at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and no

guaranty, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness, reliability or suitability.

If you do not want to receive this report further, please contact us to unsubscribe

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120,000

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9.00%

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16.00%

17.00%

Mill

ion

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Government bond auction

Total demand Government sold Min rate

Weighted average rate Max rate