Trender og utvikling i bilindustrien

Morten Gunnerud, Kongsberg Automotive

2

A brief introduction

▸ Kongsberg Automotive provides world class

products to the global vehicle industry

▸ Our products enhance the driving experience

– making it safer, more comfortable and sustainable

▸ Revenues of close to EUR 1.0 billion

▸ Over 10.000 employees

▸ Global presence

– Over 40 locations in 20 countries worldwide

▸ Listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange

– Ticker symbol (KOA)

Interior

28 % of revenues

Safety and comfort related products for

vehicle interiors

Head restraints, lumbar support systems, seat

climate systems, light duty cables

Driveline

30 % of revenues

Gear shift systems for light duty vehicles

Automatic- and manual gear shifters, shift cables

and gear selectors

Fluid Transfer

17 % of revenues

Fluid handling systems for passenger car industry

Pipe/hose assemblies for turbo chargers, brake- and fuel systems. Couplings for

air systems

Driver Control

25 % of revenues

Driver control systems, chassis products, outdoor

power equipment and recreational products

Gear shifters, clutch servos, steering columns,

chassis stabilizers, displays, throttle- & brake

pedals, hand controls

3

MA

RK

ET

P

RO

DU

CT

S

Business areas

Automotive Commercial Vehicles

Combining global reach with local support

4

Production facility

Warehouse

Office

Ever increasing transport need

5

Long distance freight transport

Urban Mobility

Energy resources and

climate change Road transport safety

Source: European Road Transport Research Advisory Council

Vehicle population

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1990199

1199

2199

3199

4199

5199

6199

7199

8199

9200

0200

1200

2200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7201

8201

9202

0202

1202

2202

3202

4202

5

Mill

ion

veh

icel

s

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Mill

ion

veh

icel

s

New production from CSM

Scrappage

Total survivor each year

7

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

8

Global commercial vehicle production – largest regions

Trucks with GVW

above 15t

Source: L.M.C.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Tu

se

ne

r

Europe production HD trucks

North America HD trucks

China HD Trucks

9

Commercial Vehicle OEM’s focus on:

Safe and

Intelligent

Truck

Reliability

and Service

Matching

vehicle to

operation

Cargo lost

to theft and

damage

Vehicle Efficiency

Total Cost of

Ownership

vs. Purchase Price

Source: European Road Transport Research Advisory Council, J.D.Power, Shell, Roland Berger

KPMG International, EU Commission, IBM Global Business Service, Oliver Wyman

10

Commercial Vehicle OEM’s focus on:

Electrification

Driveline Efficiency

Aerodynamics

and low rolling

resistance

Waste heat

recovery

Fuel

Consumption

Source: European Road Transport Research Advisory Council, J.D.Power, Shell, Roland Berger

KPMG International, EU Commission, IBM Global Business Service, Oliver Wyman

11

Commercial Vehicle OEM’s focus on:

Driver coaching

systems

Efficient work

environment

Trip planning and

freight handling

Driver Efficiency

Comfort

Source: European Road Transport Research Advisory Council, J.D.Power, Shell, Roland Berger

KPMG International, EU Commission, IBM Global Business Service, Oliver Wyman

Technology – truck engines

1000Nm

2000Nm

3000Nm

4000Nm

5000Nm

1973 1987 2005 2018? 2035?

Scania 140

1969,

350Hk,

1245Nm

Volvo 2007

660Hk,

3100Nm

Scania 141

1977,

375Hk,

1480Nm

Scania

1982,

420Hk,

1725Nm

Volvo F16

1987,

465Hk,

2005Nm

Scania R164

2010

730Hk,

3500Nm

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Volvo FH16

2011

750Hk,

3550Nm

Iveco

Turbostar

1984,

420Hk,

1900Nm

Volvo F16

1982,

485Hk,

2160Nm

MAN

1997,

600Hk,

2700Nm

Scania R164

2005

620Hk,

3000Nm

Concept interior

Motis

14

PASSENGER CARS

Car production in mature markets + China

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Mil

lio

ner

Europe

China

Japan/Korea

North America

16

Passenger car OEM’s focus on:

Functional and financial customer needs

Total Cost of Ownership

vs. Purchase Price

Unrestricted

mobility

Driving pattern

Source: European Road Transport Research Advisory Council, J.D.Power, Shell, Roland Berger

KPMG International, EU Commission, IBM Global Business Service, Oliver Wyman

Passenger car OEM’s focus on:

Safety

Emissions Comfort

Individual-

ization

Electrific-

ation

Car Specific Needs

Source: European Road Transport Research Advisory Council, J.D.Power, Shell, Roland Berger

KPMG International, EU Commission, IBM Global Business Service, Oliver Wyman

Car development towards 2020

▸ Thermodynamic improvements:

– Internal exhaust manifold

– Optimized cooling

– Multi stage turbo charging

– Variable valve systems

– Gasoline direct injection

– Advanced Direct diesel injection

– Homogenous Charge Compression Ignition

▸ Reduction of internal losses:

– Low-friction engine and gearbox

(Electric auxiliaries drive/bearing/lubrication)

– Cylinder deactivation

– Downsizing (from 5-6-8cyl to 2-3-4 cyl)

▸ Powertrain calibration/hybridization:

– Optimizing gearbox ratios (7-9 speeds/CVT/IVT etc)

European passenger cars emission legislation and

status

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

CO2 emissions EU

Legal requirements

Source: ACEA

Car development towards 2020

▸ Electrification/hybridization:

– Start/stop systems

– Brake energy regeneration (hybrids/KERS)

– Additional power from public electric power grid

(PHEV/REEV)

Electric Vehicle Control Module

Inverter

DC/AC

New building blocks inside a BEV/HEV

Battery Monitoring

Control Unit

(BMCU)

High Voltage

Battery

(HVBT)

High Voltage Battery Unit

DC/DC

Converter

On Board

Charger

AC/DC

M 3~

El. Motor

High voltage (72-750v)

12v DC system

Car development towards 2020

▸ Weight reduction

– Optimum material use

– Lightweight materials

– Downsizing engines

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Summing up - Consequences for repairs

▸ Use of new materals

– Material knowlegde

– Surface finnish

▸ Increase of complexity

– System competence

– Diagnostics/ HIL-test

▸ Electrification

– HMS and safety

– Electrical competence

▸ Cost pressure

– Repair time

– Cost of components