mortgages - nbc.ca€¦ · 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18...
TRANSCRIPT
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Mortgages
Non-mort loans
Consumer credit
Bonds
ST paper
C$tln
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
% of GDP
2019 budget
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Actual
Fcst (fed budgets)
%
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.02009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
%-pts
NBF f'cst
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Budget assumption
NBF alternative assumption
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Minimum
Maximum
Scenario average
C$bln
3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18
Effective interest rate
2010-11 effective rate prevailing
%~$70 billion in cumulative
savings from lower effective interest rates
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y
Weighted avg. coupon
Provincial average
New assumed coupon
coupon
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
05-Feb 05-Mar 05-Apr 05-May 05-Jun 05-Jul 05-Aug
ONT 2.7 06/02/2029
ONT 2.9 06/02/2049
%
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
BC Man Que Ont Sask Alta NB NS N&L PEI
%
4
5