“mortgages today” paul smee council of mortgage lenders
DESCRIPTION
“Mortgages Today” Paul Smee Council of Mortgage Lenders. The housing picture. Residential mortgages Transaction volumes down Half of the boom Total lending £135bn – “flat” Is this the ‘new normal’?. Buy-to-let. Increased lending – from very low base Healthy sector - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
“Mortgages Today”Paul SmeeCouncil of Mortgage Lenders
The housing picture
Residential mortgages• Transaction volumes down• Half of the boom• Total lending £135bn – “flat”
Is this the ‘new normal’?
Buy-to-let
• Increased lending – from very low base• Healthy sector• 10 per cent of gross advances
Aspiration
81% still want to own their home
BUT
Timescales are slipping
Arrears: percentage of balance
Source: CML
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
# o
f m
ort
ga
ge
s
2.5% < 5% in arrears 5% < 7.5% in arrears 7.5% < 10% in arrears ≥ 10% arrears
Possessions
Source: CML
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012#
of
pro
per
ties
tak
en i
nto
po
sses
sio
n
Debt advice
MAS role
What does the mortgage market need?• Appropriate regulation• MMR must be proportionate and not
exclude groups• Interest-only – what is its niche?• No mortgage prisoners
Housing strategy
• Needs to be joined up• No silver bullets• All needs funding• Depends on new supply
NewBuy
• 95% mortgages on new build• Builder indemnity• Target group – those with income but
low deposits
Risks
• Eurozone• Funding• “Confidence”