MOSAiCMultidisciplinary drifting Observatory

for the Study of Arctic Climate

Ad hoc Organizing CommitteeMatthew Shupe – U. of ColoradoKlaus Dethloff – Alfred Wegener Inst.Ola Persson – U. of ColoradoMichael Tjernström – Stockholm U.

Science Plan Writing TeamSebastian Gerland, Jun Inoue, Craig Lee, Brice Loose, Alexander Makshtas, Wieslaw Maslowski, Walt Meier, Marcel Nicolaus, Dirk Notz, Ilka Peeken, Don Perovich, Julia Schmale, Timo Vihma, Jinping Zhao

Francis et al. 2009

Dukhovskoy et al. 2006

www.iarc.uaf.edu

The central Arctic is changing dramatically, characterized by major sea-ice decline & more younger ice.

Do we know why? and (importantly) how?

Courtesy J. Stroeve

Arctic in Transition

Sept. 2012

nsidc.org

1979-2000 median

• We lack a system- and process-level understanding of change, due to a lack of observations!

• Potential emergence of new processes, tipping points• Feedbacks with “globally significant consequences” (IPCC)• Implications for regional and lower-latitude weather• Implications for resource development, commerce, ecosystems,

productivity, communities

Implications of Change

Francis et al. 2009 noaa.gov

Incoming solar radiation200 W m2

Reflected by clouds, aerosol & atmosphere 45

26

70

Reflected by surface

Absorbed by atmosphere

59

Turbulence

3

3 Evapo-transpiration

3

3 257 231

231237

20

20

133

Surface radiation Absorbed by surface

reflected solar radiation115 W m2

back radiation

emitted by atmosphere

30

Outgoing longwave radiation 183 W m2

Absorbed by surface

+98

+2

-100

2

ARCTIC ENERGY BUDGET (f > 65°N)

Sea ice Sea ice

96

Sea-Ice Energy Budget

Persson et al. 2013

Decadal decline can be explained by ~1 W/m2 excess. Kwok and Untersteiner 2011

Critical Model Shortcomings

~ 0 W m-2~ 0 W m-2

~-25 W m-2

~-10 W m-2

Tjernström et al. 2008

Regional Climate Models evaluated against SHEBA radiative fluxes reveal major biases and spreads, especially under clouds. Such biases can have serious implications for sea-ice concentrations.

Critical Model Shortcomings

Comparison of IPCC AR4 models of sea-surface salinity:

Major differences suggest lack of consistency in important processes such as ocean mixing, dynamics, sea-ice processes, freshwater input, and/or others.

Holland et al. 2007

Best estimate of actual field based on observations

Multi-year, coordinated, and comprehensive measurements, extending from the atmosphere through the sea-ice and into the ocean, are needed in the central Arctic Basin to provide a process-level understanding of the changing central Arctic climate system that will contribute towards improved modeling of Arctic climate and weather, and prediction of Arctic sea-ice concentrations.

The MOSAiC Plan

What: 1) Deploy heavily instrumented,

manned, ship-based, Arctic Ocean observatory for comprehensive, coordinated observations of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and ocean.

2) Network of spatial measurements to provide context and variability (buoys, gliders, UAVs, aircraft, ships, satellites, ice stations).

3) Coordinated modeling activities at many scales from process-study to regional climate models.

The MOSAiC Plan

When: Start 2017-2018, covering multiple annual cycles if possible

Where: Central Arctic Basin ice pack

Who: • Coordinated through IASC • International participation

(e.g. US, Germany, Sweden, France, Russia, Finland, Norway, Canada, Korea, Japan, China,….)

• International infrastructure• Synchronized international

funding September 2011 sea ice extent (courtesy NSIDC). Numerous drift tracks of stations suggest possible observatory tracks

The MOSAiC Plan

Leading Science Question:“What are the causes and consequences of an evolving and diminished Arctic sea ice cover?”

MOSAiC Science Drivers

Sea-ice Lifecycle as a Theme. Use a sea-ice “Lagrangian” perspective, where ice

processes integrate forcings from atmos and ocean.

o How do ongoing changes in the Arctic ice-ocean-atmosphere system impact heat and mass transfers of importance to climate and ecosystems?

o What are the processes and feedbacks affecting sea-ice cover, atmosphere-ocean stratification and energy budgets in the Arctic?

o What is the effect of an ice-reduced Arctic on biological productivity and what are the consequences of this on other components of the system?

o How do interfacial exchange rates, biology and chemistry couple to regulate the major elemental cycles?

o How do the different scales of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the atmosphere, ice and ocean interact to impact the linkages or feedbacks within the system?

MOSAiC Science Questions

• Process-study vs. climatology• Process perspective suited to parameterization evaluation & development• Requires complex measurements to characterize interdependent processes• Distributed measurements for spatial variability & context on key parameters

Process Perspective

Oce

an

Sea

-ice

A

tmos

pher

e

Measurements

Micro-meteorology

gases, aerosols, clouds & precip.

atmospheric profiling, BL, & dynamics

leads & ocean surface

ocean state, profiling, & dynamics

aircraft + UASs

ocean and ice bio/chem

buoys, AUVs, gliders

ice profiling, thermodynamics, mass budgets

surface energy budget

Transpolar Drift track

Objectives:• Observe full sea-ice “life

cycle,” starting in new ice.• Trajectory that will last for

at least (more than) 1 year• Observe an understudied

region

Challenges:• Central Arctic is isolated• First year ice will be

difficult

2011

Planning the Drift Track

• Arctic climate system has memory. Sea-ice integrates energy budgets.• Processes vary over the annual cycle.• Important to understand all phases of the sea-ice life cycle:

Formation > growth > transport/deformation > melt/decay/export• Past observations biased towards summer (warm, easy);

Relatively little understanding of winter processes.

Full Annual CyclePerovich et al. 2008

Persson et al. 2002

Previous experiences within the Arctic ice pack:

Russian drifting stationsSHEBAShorter-term campaignsMany disciplinary obs.Some inter-disciplinary obs.

Each of these has key limitations:Length of timeComprehensiveness Spatial contextNot in the “new” Arctic

Russian drifting station

SHEBA

Building off the Past

Central Model Role

Models play critical roles: • Identify important

measurements, processes• Guide drift track• Integrate process

information• Provide spatial context• Linkage w/ lower latitudes

Model considerations:• Hierarchy of model activities:

process, regional, global• Regional model intercomparison

project• Model “testbed” > Critical data for

parameterization evaluation & development

• Strong ties with WWRP Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

Central Model Role

A Recognized NeedMOSAiC concept is specifically recognized as important:• IARPC Arctic Research Plan 2013-2017• US Arctic Observing Network Coordination Workshop 2012• DOE US-EU Workshop on Climate Challenges and Observations 2012• NASA Arctic Boreal Zone Workshop 2012• WWRP Polar Predictability Program, Implementation Plan 2012• IASC endorsement 2012

And clearly addresses specific needs:• US SEARCH 5-year goals (sea-ice), 2012• US AON Status Report (atmos/ocean/sea-ice), 2009• US National Ocean Policy (sea-ice), 2012• US Navy Arctic Roadmap (coupled modeling, sea-ice), 2009• NOAA Arctic Vision & Strategy (sea-ice forecasting, science), 2011

“Improve the understanding of atmosphere, sea-ice, and ocean system interactions through a combination of enhanced observations and process-based modeling studies.” US SEARCH 5-Year Goals

Thanks!

MOSAiC into the FutureTentative MOSAiC Schedule

Develop Science Plan – spring-summer 2013 Writing workshop – 29-30 May 2013, Potsdam

Implementation Workshop and Plan – spring2014 MOSAiC Open Science Meeting – likely 2014 Start serious funding discussions: 2013> Logistics planning 2013> Preparatory modeling & instrument development 2013> Field deployment September 2017?, 2018?

www.mosaicobservatory.org