mouhcine guettabi · the drop in the oil price at first was slow and the drop accelerated in the...
TRANSCRIPT
Mouhcine Guettabi
Assistant Professor of Economics,
Institute of Social and Economic
Research
John MacKinnonExecutive Director, Associated General
Contractors of Alaska
January 29, 2015 Anchorage
January 30, 2015 Fairbanks
2015 Construction Spending: $8.5 BILLION
PRIVATE: NET OIL
AND GAS$1.71 20%
OIL AND GAS$3.84 45%
PUBLIC$2.97 35%
Construction Spending (Billion $)Down 3%
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
OIL AND GAS
PRIVATE: NET OIL AND GAS
PUBLIC
-2%
-13%
+1%
2016 and Beyond
What’s on Everyone’s Mind ?
Average vs Spot Price
Shale Oil Supply
Price Looking Ahead
Construction $$ : 4 Sources
Federal Procurement (DoD) and Grants
State Government
Petroleum Industry
Other
Department of Defense
Big 5 Federal Capital Grants
• Highways• Airports• Safe Water• Health• Housing
Federal Grants to State
2016 and Beyond: Federal $ Stable
MAP-21 Missile Defense F-35
State Construction Appropriations
Total State Capital Appropriation
Time Lag from Appropriation Until “Cash on the Street”
2016 and Beyond: State Capital Spending Tighter
Petroleum: Planned Spending
Petroleum Cash Flow Squeeze
2016 and Beyond: Petroleum Spending--Lots of Potential,
IF???
Each New Barrel Requires More Workers
Economic Growth has SlowedJOB GROWTH
POPULATION GROWTH
2016 and Beyond: Overall Economy--Deceleration
Oil and Gas: North Slope
$ 3,560
+3%
Oil and Gas: Cook Inlet
$ 280
-37%
National Defense
$ 435
+10%
Highways
$ 755
-1%
Airports / Ports / RR
$ 465
+9%
Education
$ 465
-3%
Mining
$ 210
+19%
Utilities
$ 680
-20%
Health Care
$ 240
-
Other Federal
$ 255
-15%
Other State and Local
$ 555
-
Residential
$ 415
-14%
Other Commercial
$ 135
-21%
2015 Stable2016 Uncertain
Thank You!