moving towards liquid phase industry suwit maesincee moi 1
TRANSCRIPT
Suvit MaesinceeSasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)
September 20, 2009
Moving Towards
Liquid Phase Industry
• Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness
• Industry In Transition
• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making
Agenda
• Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness
• Industry In Transition
• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making
Agenda
Globalization
New Markets Climate Change
Environment & Natural Resources
NewRegulations
Natural Disasters
SecurityConcerns
Disruptive Technology
Political Unrests
CommodityPrices
New Competitors
New Partnerships
New Business Models
New Customer Expectations
Changing State of Nature
Solid Modernity Liquid Modernity
• Connectivity
• Interactivity
• Mobility
• Virtuality
Public
Private
People
Nation 1 Nation 2 Nation 3
Open
Multiplicity
Self
Reflexivity
Local
Overlapping
Characteristics of Liquid Phase Modernity
The New Politics of Space & Time
• Dis-embedding /
Re-embedding
• The World in Pieces
Spatial
• Temporariness
• Instantaneity
• Delay Gratification
Temporal
Time in Space
Space in Time
Consequences
Hyperconsumption
Hypercompetition
Nanosecond CultureHypermodernity
Culture of Immediacy
Globalization
of RisksDemocratization of
Power & Wealth
The New Age of
Capitalism
The End of
the Nation-State
Global Forces & Trends
Democratization of Power & Wealth
Global GDP* %
1820 70 1913 50 73 2005
Developing Countries
Developed Countries
25
50
75
% Global GDP 2015
China
Other
India
Japan
USA
Western Europe
Other Regions
0
100
20
40
60
80
ROW
Asia
The New USA
East Asia
South Asia
Southeast Asia
China
AfricaLatin
American
Asia
Japan
Europe The US
The New Geopolitics
A Range of Future after the End of the Bi-polar World
Bipolarity
Unipolarity
Multipolarity
Source: Tanaka Akihiko
First
Among Equals
The 1+X World
Thailand
• US
• Japan
• Europe
• India
• Russia
• China
Existing
Triad
New
Triad
• Japan
• Korea
• China
Policy Responding to the Rise of Multipolarity
Globalization
of RisksDemocratization of
Power & Wealth
The New Age of
Capitalism
The End of
the Nation-State
Global Forces & Trends
Whole Picture of the World Economy
Risks
Threats
Crises
Opportunity
Growth
Prosperity
Interaction
One Side of the Coin The Other Side of the Coin
Globalization of Risks
GlobalLocal
Glo
ba
lL
oc
al
• Terrorism
• Mass Production
of Refugee
• Extreme Poverty
• Genocide
• Civil War
• Climate Change
• Financial Crisis
•Pandemic Diseases
Risk Society
• Hyper-conflict
• Imbalance
• Instability
• Insecurity
We are living in a Global Risk Community
e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis
• Climate Change
• Global Financial Crises
• Suicide Attacks
• Industrial Accidents
• Wars
Natural Catastrophes
The Evolution of Global Risks
Twentieth
Century
Risks
Twenty First
Century
Risks
Global risks occur in multiple dimensions
Spatial
Temporal
Some risks are spreading over national
borders and even over continents
Some risks have a long latency period,
so that their future effects cannot be
reliably determined and restricted
Many new risks are the result of complex
processes involving long chains of effects,
so their causes and effects cannot be
determined with sufficient precision
Social
Ma
gn
itu
de
of
Cri
sis
Time
Global
JobCrisis
Global
EconomicCrisis
Global
FinancialTurmoil
Commodity
Price
BubbleReal
EstateBubble
Dot
ComBurst
Asian
FinancialCrisis
Se
ve
rity
Within
a Decade
Time
We are facing with perpetual uncertainty
Incalculable
Non-Compensable
Their consequence are in principle incalculable
Given the new quality of “threats to humanity”,
the logic of compensation is breaking down and
is being replaced by the principle of precaution
through prevention
The impact of global risks
Democratic Global risks affect both the rich and the poor, the
powerful and the powerless
In the Liquid Phase Modernity, “Fear” determines the attitude towards life
Security
Freedom &
EqualityHuman
Security
National
Security
Management of
uncertainty, risk
& insecurity
Construction &
maintenance of
social & political
order
Security is the legal assurance of freedom
Laissez-faire
Precaution
Can Thailand accommodate global risks and
opportunities?
Risks
Op
po
rtu
nit
ies
Thailand
ASEAN
Asia
World
• Climate
Change
• Endemic/
Chronic
Disease
• Economic
Crisis
North Korea
Terrorism
Political Turmoil
The Rise of Asia
Relationship w/ China, India
AEC
Mekong Region
Border
Conflict
Myanmar
Migration
The Rise of the Rest
The Age of Africa
Regional Hub
Bridging policy and managerial implications
Macro
Opportunity
Micro
Opportunity
Macro
Risk
Micro
Risk
Source: DB Research
Double
Winners
Double
Losers
Beneficiaries from Climate Change
under Government Control
Food
Industry
Tourism
Auto-
motive
Chemical
Industry
Textile
& Clothing
Building Materials,
Paper Industry
Metal IndustryEnergy Sector
(Fossil Fuels)
Renewable
Energies
Mechanical
& Electrical
Engineering
Finance Agriculture
& Forestry
Construction&
Associated Sector
Transportation
Regulatory
Market
Economy
Condition
(+)
(-)
Environmental Climate Dimension (+)
(-)
Beneficiaries from Government
Measures with Climate Risks
Risks
Threats
Crises
Growth
Opportunity
Prosperity
Interaction
A growth-driven virtuous circle and a risk-driven
vicious circle are highly associated
Order Chaos
Laissez-faire
Precaution
Two basic principles of risk evaluation come into conflicts
“When in doubt,
opt for doubt”
“When in doubt,
opt against doubt”
Globalization
of RisksDemocratization of
Power & Wealth
The New Age of
Capitalism
The End of
the Nation-State
Global Forces & Trends
Globalization of Public Goods
Global
Commons
Shifting in Centricity
Economic
Social
Local Global
Company
CentricConformance
Community
CentricConformance
Global
CentricConformance
Individualization
Self Governance
GlobalGovernance
Commonization
The End of Nation-State?
Liquid Modernity
Nation-State
Sham
Standards
Rival
Standards
Club
Standards
Harmonized
Standards
Hig
h C
on
flic
tL
ow
Co
nfl
ict
Div
erg
en
ce
of
inte
res
ts
am
on
g g
rea
t p
ow
ers
Source: Daniel W. Drezner “All Politics Is Global”
High Conflict Low Conflict
Divergence of interests between
great powers and other international actors
Globalization
of RisksDemocratization of
Power & Wealth
The New Age of
Capitalism
The End of
the Nation-State
Global Forces & Trends
The End of Socialism
CapitalismSocialism
Free Market
Economy
There is no alternative
Capitalism
Managed
Economy
Free Market
Economy
Coordinated
Economy
The End of Capitalism ?
• Setting coordinating
mechanism
• Sharing more information
and warning signals
• Making the system
more transparent
• Minimizing the asymmetric
information and unfair
practices
• Pursuing the tighten
regulation and
de-leveraging measures
Mode of Operations
Ethno-
Centricity
Poly-
Centricity
Geo-
Centricity
Ca
pit
ali
sm
Managed
Economy
Coordinated
Economy
Free Market
Economy
Centralization & Concentration
Change in Consumption PatternP
urc
hasin
gP
ow
er
Necessity of Goods
High Low
High
Low
Adaptation
According to
the Crisis
• Earning
• Spending/Saving Ratio
• Economize
• Reprioritize
Increase Consumer Purchasing Power
Pu
rch
asin
gP
ow
er
Necessity of Goods
High Low
High
Low
Adaptation
According to
the Crisis
• Government
stimulus
package
• Consumer
finance
Increase Affordability
Pu
rch
asin
gP
ow
er
Necessity of Goods
High Low
High
Low
Adaptation
According to
the Crisis
• Value for money
• No Frill/ Reduced
options
• Fighting brands/
Private label
• Special offered
Change in Competitive Intensity
Number of Competitors
Ac
cu
mu
lati
ve
Ma
rke
t S
ha
re
Accu
mu
lati
ve
Mark
et
Sh
are
Number of Competitors
Ac
cu
mu
lati
ve
Mark
et
Sh
are
Post CrisisScenario I
Post CrisisScenario II
Pre-CrisisConcentration Ratio
• Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness
• Industry In Transition
• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making
Agenda
Post Knowledge BasedSociety
Reorienting the World
Materialization
Humanization
Private Interest Public Interest
Knowledge BasedSociety
IndustrialSociety
Care & Share
Reorienting the Mental Model
Materialization
Humanization
Private Interest Public Interest
Sense & Response
Make & Sell
A Balanced Nation
Value Creation
Economy
Caring
Society
Entrepreneurial
Culture
Self Expression
Value
People
with Knowledge
& Morality
Communal
Value
Care & Share
Culture
Sustainable
Development
Social
Well-Being
Economic
Wealth
Human
Wisdom
Environmental
Wellness
Economic
WealthSocial
Well-being
Human
Wisdom
Environmental
Wellness
Economic
Wealth
Social
Well-being
Human
Wisdom
Environmental
Wellness
Strategic Gaps
Economic
Based
Industry
Environmental
Friendly ?
Social
Responsibility ?
Human
Potentiality ?
• Efficiency
• Profitability
• Growth
Challenges Facing Economic based Industry
Ex
isti
ng
Ma
xim
um
Cap
ac
ity
Positive
Sum Game
Negative
Sum Game
Time
Presence
Oblivious
Trade-off
Win-Win
Positive
Collective Action
Environmental Friendly ?
CorporateGovernance
CorporatePhilanthropy
Corporate
SocialResponsibility
Corporate
SocialEntrepreneurship
Global
CorporateCitizenship
Social Responsibility ?
• Mass Production
•Corporate Governance
•Asymmetry of
Information
•Economies of Scarcity
•Owning the Asset
•Consumer/Producer
•Market Segmentation
•Goods for Elite
• Mass Customization
•Market Governance
•Democratization of
Information
•Network Externality
•Gaining the Access
•B2C Prosumer/ Co-Creator
•Value Chain Integration
•Goods for Everyone
•Creative Collaboration
•People Governance
•Democratization of
Creativity
•Economies of Reciprocity
•Empowering the People
•P2P Prosumer
•Open Innovation/ Creativity
•Goods For/By Everyone
Industrial Age Knowledge Age Creative Age
Source: Suvit Maesincee “Post Knowledge Based Society”
Human Potentiality ?
• Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness
• Industry In Transition
• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making
Agenda
A balanced nation needs a balanced industry portfolio
Social
Well-Being
Economic
Wealth
Human
Wisdom
Environmental
Wellness
Social
Centric
Industries
Economic
Centric
Industries
Human
Centric
Industries
Environmental
Centric
Industries
The New Portfolio of Industries
Social
Centric
Industries
Economic
Centric
Industries
Human
Centric
Industries
Environmental
Centric
Industries
• Creative
Economy
• Service
Industries
• Knowledge
Industries
• OTOP
• BOP
• Social Production
• Peer Production
• Distributed
Creativity
• Alternative
Energy
• Recycle
Business
• Manufacturing
Resource
Spending
Content
SocialContent
Knowledge/
CreativeContent
Resource
SavingContent
Efficiency CreativitySustainability Co-Prosperity
Industry Cluster Redefined
Economic Centric
Industry Cluster
Human Centric
Industry Cluster
Social Centric
Industry Cluster
Environmental Centric
Industry Cluster
Interaction among clusters enhance value creation
Economic
Centric Industry
Social
Centric Industry
Human
Centric Industry
Environmental
Centric Industry
Welfare
Economy
Competitive
Economy
Innovative
Economy
Growth
Economy
CreativeBusiness
Value
Creation
Value
Added
Creative Value Creation
Environmental Value Creation
Welfare
Economy
Competitive
Economy
Innovative
Economy
Growth
Economy
Energy SavingBusiness
Value
Creation
Value
Added
Economic
Centric Industry
Social
Centric Industry
Human
Centric Industry
Environmental
Centric Industry
Social Value Creation
Welfare
Economy
Competitive
Economy
Innovative
Economy
Growth
Economy
Social
Enterprise
Value
Creation
Value
Added
Economic
Centric Industry
Social
Centric Industry
Human
Centric Industry
Environmental
Centric Industry
Industry Capacity Building
Economic
Centric
Industry
Social
Centric
Industry
Human
Centric
Industry
Environmental
Centric
Industry
Economic
Wealth
Social
Well-being
Environmental
Wellness
Human
Wisdom
Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness