mpi-chemie impact of tropical deforestation on the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere laurens...
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MPI-CHEMIE
Impact of Tropical Deforestation on Impact of Tropical Deforestation on the Oxidizing Capacity of the the Oxidizing Capacity of the
AtmosphereAtmosphere
Impact of Tropical Deforestation on Impact of Tropical Deforestation on the Oxidizing Capacity of the the Oxidizing Capacity of the
AtmosphereAtmosphere
Laurens GanzeveldLaurens Ganzeveld11, Lex Bouwman, Lex Bouwman22, Bas Eickhout, Bas Eickhout22, Patrick Jöckel, Patrick Jöckel11, Jos Lelieveld, Jos Lelieveld11, , Swen MetzgerSwen Metzger11, Meryem Tanarhte, Meryem Tanarhte11, and the MESSy team, and the MESSy team11
11Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany 22National Institute for Public Health and theEnvironmentNational Institute for Public Health and theEnvironment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands. (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands.
Laurens GanzeveldLaurens Ganzeveld11, Lex Bouwman, Lex Bouwman22, Bas Eickhout, Bas Eickhout22, Patrick Jöckel, Patrick Jöckel11, Jos Lelieveld, Jos Lelieveld11, , Swen MetzgerSwen Metzger11, Meryem Tanarhte, Meryem Tanarhte11, and the MESSy team, and the MESSy team11
11Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany 22National Institute for Public Health and theEnvironmentNational Institute for Public Health and theEnvironment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands. (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands.
MPI-CHEMIE
The OH Radical: the Atmosphere‘s detergentThe OH Radical: the Atmosphere‘s detergent
Oxidizing Capacity of the AtmosphereOxidizing Capacity of the Atmosphere
OH HO2
recyclingsource
sink NMHC
CO, CH4, CH2O
CO2, H2O
CH2O
hν
H2O2
HO2
NO2
NOhν
NO2
O3 + hvO(1D) + H2O
Primary OH Formation
O3 + h → O2(1Δ) + O(1D)
O(1D) + M → O(3P) + M
O(3P) + O2 + M → O 3 + M
O(1D) + H2O → 2 OH
OH Recycling
HO2 + NO → OH +NO2 (high NOx)
HO2 + O3 → OH + 2O2 (low NOx)
urban (U.S.)
remoteagricultural
(U.S.)
Wet tropical forestMaritime
(pacific)
Courtesy: Franz Meixner, from: Chameides
LBA-EUSTACH 1
MPI-CHEMIE
*
Courtesy: Jos Lelieveld
Oxidizing Capacity of the AtmosphereOxidizing Capacity of the Atmosphere
Major influences on tropospheric OHMajor influences on tropospheric OHForcing Mechanism Response
NOx ↑ O3 formation, OH recycling OH ↑
H2O ↑ H2O + O(1D) → 2OH OH ↑
CH4 ↑ CH4 + OH → products OH ↓
CO ↑ CO + OH → products OH ↓
NMHC ↑ NMHC + OH → products OH ?
Clouds ↑ light scattering, multiphase chemistry OH ?
MPI-CHEMIE
Hypothesis:Hypothesis:
Deforestation will affect the atmospheric Deforestation will affect the atmospheric oxidizing efficiency through changes in oxidizing efficiency through changes in tracer, energy and water surface exchangestracer, energy and water surface exchanges
Oxidizing Capacity of the AtmosphereOxidizing Capacity of the Atmosphere
This change can only be assessed with This change can only be assessed with coupled chemistry-climate models that coupled chemistry-climate models that explicitly consider the dependence of explicitly consider the dependence of surface exchanges on land cover and land surface exchanges on land cover and land use properties use properties
urban (U.S.)
remoteagricultural
(U.S.)
Wet tropical forest
Maritime (pacific)
Future tropical forest?
Future tropical forest?
and the interactions between atmospheric and the interactions between atmospheric chemistry and the hydrological cycle, e.g., the chemistry and the hydrological cycle, e.g., the changes in photo-dissociation due to changes changes in photo-dissociation due to changes in cloud coverin cloud cover
MPI-CHEMIE
N emissions [kg N kmN emissions [kg N km-2-2 yr yr-1-1]: fertilizers]: fertilizers
Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Present-day versus FutureLand Cover and Land Use Changes: Present-day versus Future
Forest fraction [0 - 1]Forest fraction [0 - 1]
2100210011
1010Present-dayPresent-dayPresent-dayPresent-day11
404021002100
MPI-CHEMIE
ECHAM’s energy and HECHAM’s energy and H22O surface exchangesO surface exchanges
5 soil layers, T5 soil layers, Tsoilsoil
Sea ice
Bare soil
SeaWet skin surface
Snow/ice
z0
Soil moisture (WSoil moisture (Wss))
turbulenceturbulence
radiation, heatradiation, heat HH22OO
Dry deposition Dry deposition ∫∫(radiation, W(radiation, Wss , turb.) , turb.)
In-canopy interactions In-canopy interactions ∫∫(turb., chemistry)(turb., chemistry)
Soil-biogenic N emissions Soil-biogenic N emissions ∫∫(W(Wss, T, Tsoilsoil, fertil., ecosystem), fertil., ecosystem)
biogenic VOC emissions biogenic VOC emissions ∫∫(T(Tsurfsurf, radiation, ecosystem), radiation, ecosystem)
and reactive trace gas and aerosol exchangesand reactive trace gas and aerosol exchanges
ECHAM’s tracer, energy and water surface exchangesECHAM’s tracer, energy and water surface exchanges
MPI-CHEMIE
Forest PastureLAI [m2 m-2] ~ 6-7 1.5Canopy height [m] 15-30 0.5z0 [m] 1-2 0.05C5H8 emis. [μg C g-1 hr-1] 16 5NO emis. [ng N m-2 s-1] 2.6 0.36Cult. intensity [0-1] 0 0.2Fertil. use [ng N m-2 s-1] 0 13CRF [0-1] 0.2-0.3 0.7-0.8
Impact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes on Atmospheric Chemistry: SCM studyImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes on Atmospheric Chemistry: SCM study
deforestation
Ganzeveld, L., and J. LelieveldGanzeveld, L., and J. Lelieveld, , Impact of Amazonian deforestation on Impact of Amazonian deforestation on atmospheric chemistryatmospheric chemistry, , Geophys. Res. Lett., 31Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L06105, , L06105,
doi:10.1029/2003GL019205, 2004.doi:10.1029/2003GL019205, 2004.
deforestation
ΔOH ~ +100 %
MPI-CHEMIE
MModular odular EEarth arth SSubmodel ubmodel SySystem (MESSy) coupled to GCM ECHAM5stem (MESSy) coupled to GCM ECHAM5http://www.messy-interface.orghttp://www.messy-interface.org
MModular odular EEarth arth SSubmodel ubmodel SySystem (MESSy) coupled to GCM ECHAM5stem (MESSy) coupled to GCM ECHAM5http://www.messy-interface.orghttp://www.messy-interface.org
ECHAM5ECHAM5
Polar Stratospheric Cloudsmicro-physics and sedimentation
Polar Stratospheric Cloudsmicro-physics and sedimentation
Aerosol Physics (& chemistry) Thermodynamical aerosol
composition module and size-resolving dynamical module
Aerosol Physics (& chemistry) Thermodynamical aerosol
composition module and size-resolving dynamical module
14CO / Radonnatural atmospheric tracer, evaluation
of tropospheric OH. STE / PBL transport
14CO / Radonnatural atmospheric tracer, evaluation
of tropospheric OH. STE / PBL transport
Eulerian Transport Schemes Eulerian Transport Schemes
Lagrangian Transport SchemeLagrangian Transport Scheme
Natural and Anthropogenic Emissionsbiogenic surface emissions and anthropogenic emissions
Natural and Anthropogenic Emissionsbiogenic surface emissions and anthropogenic emissions
Gas-phase and Heterogeneous Chemistry
using Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP)
Gas-phase and Heterogeneous Chemistry
using Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP)
MBL Chemistryswitchable extension with chemistry scheme
MBL Chemistryswitchable extension with chemistry scheme
Photolysisfast on-line scheme
Photolysisfast on-line scheme
Diagnostic and Output(e.g., PBL and tropopause height)
Diagnostic and Output(e.g., PBL and tropopause height)
ScavengingBelow and in-cloud scavenging of
gases and aerosols
ScavengingBelow and in-cloud scavenging of
gases and aerosols
Dry Depositiondry deposition of gases and aerosols
Dry Depositiondry deposition of gases and aerosols
Convection & Tracer TransportConvection & Tracer Transport
Stratospheric Water VaporStratospheric Water Vapor
Lightning NOxLightning NOx
Coupled chemistry-GCMCoupled chemistry-GCM
MPI-CHEMIE
IMAGEIMAGE, 19 land cover Classes, 19 land cover Classes
Experiment Set-up: Scenario CompilationExperiment Set-up: Scenario Compilation
Experiments with MESSy-echam5: 1995-2050-2100 A2 land cover and Experiments with MESSy-echam5: 1995-2050-2100 A2 land cover and land use scenario’s of the IMAGE modelland use scenario’s of the IMAGE model
N emissions [kg N kmN emissions [kg N km-2-2 yr yr-1-1]: fertilizers]: fertilizersForest fraction [0 - 1]Forest fraction [0 - 1]
2100210011
1010Present-dayPresent-dayPresent-dayPresent-day11
404021002100Land cover/Land use param. Process
Forest fraction micro-met./dry dep.LAI " "Canopy height " "Roughness " "Foliar density biogenic VOC emis.C5H8 emis. factor " "LAD profile " "NO emis. factor biogenic NO emis.Cultivation. intensity " "Fertilizer. use " "
Land cover/Land use param. Process
Forest fraction micro-met./dry dep.LAI " "Canopy height " "Roughness " "Foliar density biogenic VOC emis.C5H8 emis. factor " "LAD profile " "NO emis. factor biogenic NO emis.Cultivation. intensity " "Fertilizer. use " "
Present-dayPresent-dayAgric. Land
Grassland
Regrowth forest
Ice
Tundra
Wooded tundra
Boreal forest
Cool conifer forest
Temp. mixed forest
Temp. dedic. forest
Warm mixed forest
Grassland/steppe
Hot desert
Scrubland
Savanna
Tropical woodland
Tropical forest
21002100Agric. Land
Grassland
Regrowth forest
Ice
Tundra
Wooded tundra
Boreal forest
Cool conifer forest
Temp. mixed forest
Temp. dedic. forest
Warm mixed forest
Grassland/steppe
Hot desert
Scrubland
Savanna
Tropical woodland
Tropical forest
MPI-CHEMIEImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: MeteorologyImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Meteorology
dTdTsurfsurf [ [ºKºK]]
22050 - 1995
-2.5
0
dNet surface radiation [%] dNet surface radiation [%]
2050 - 1995 20%
0%
-20%
dSoil Moisture [%]dSoil Moisture [%]2050 - 1995
-30%
0%
30%
dWet skin fraction [%]dWet skin fraction [%]2050 - 1995 100%
0%
-100%
MPI-CHEMIEImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Surface ExchangesImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Surface Exchanges
Biogenic Emissions and Dry DepositionBiogenic Emissions and Dry Deposition
change in Foliar Densitychange in Foliar Density
2050 - 1995 50%
-50%
0%
VdHNO3; 2050 - 1995 25%
-40%
0%
0%
60%
-60%
VdO3; 2050 - 199550%
0%
-100%
FNO; 2050-1995
FC5H8; 2050 - 1995 50%
0%
-150%
ΔFc5H8 ~ Δ biomass
ΔFNO ~ ΔCRF, Tsoil, ws, precip, fert.
ΔVdHNO3 ~ Δturbulence
ΔVdO3 ~ Δturb., Rstom, ws, wet skin fraction
MPI-CHEMIEImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Oxidizing capacityImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Oxidizing capacity
Oxidizing CapacityOxidizing Capacity
NOx; 2050 - 1995 60%
0%
-100%
C5H8; 2050 - 1995 90%
0%
-150%
100%
0%
-50%
OH; 2050 - 199515%
0%
-20%
O3; 2050 - 1995
ΔC5H8 ~ ΔFC5H8ΔNOx ~ ΔFNO, chemistry, dry deposition
ΔO3 ~ ΔC5H8, dry deposition
ΔO3 ~ ΔNOx
ΔOH ~ ΔC5H8
-
-
+
+
MPI-CHEMIEImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Oxidizing capacityImpact of Land Cover and Land Use Changes: Oxidizing capacity
Oxidizing CapacityOxidizing Capacity
100%
0%
-50%
OH; 2050 - 1995
OH; 2050 - 1995 70%
35%
0%
-50%
11
5
9
7
3
1
Hei
gh
t [k
m]
MPI-CHEMIE
Conclusion/OutlookConclusion/Outlook
Including more feedbacks in model experiments: Including more feedbacks in model experiments:
I.I. Using consistent anthropogenic emission Using consistent anthropogenic emission scenarios: scenarios: IMAGE land cover/use scenariosIMAGE land cover/use scenarios are consistent with are consistent with SRESSRES scenarios scenarios
II.II. Including aerosol-radiative forcing effectsIncluding aerosol-radiative forcing effectsIII.III. Coupling emissions/dry deposition to carbon Coupling emissions/dry deposition to carbon
cycle model (ECHAM5-JSBACH)cycle model (ECHAM5-JSBACH)IV.IV. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulationsCoupled ocean-atmosphere simulations
Consequently, we will perform longer integrations/transient simulations to study Consequently, we will perform longer integrations/transient simulations to study the significance of the climate change signal;the significance of the climate change signal;
1-year annual mean dT1-year annual mean dTsurfsurf
[[ºKºK]] 22050 - 1995
-2.5
0
Our study indicates that deforestation will generally result in an increase in the oxidizing Our study indicates that deforestation will generally result in an increase in the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere, largely reflecting the decreases in isoprene emissions capacity of the atmosphere, largely reflecting the decreases in isoprene emissions
It does not include for example the potential role of the natural and anthropogenic It does not include for example the potential role of the natural and anthropogenic emissions of oxygenated VOC’s for the OH productionemissions of oxygenated VOC’s for the OH production
However, the analysis only considers the impact of land-cover and land-use changes However, the analysis only considers the impact of land-cover and land-use changes on atmospheric chemistry, for a 1-year integration for 1995 and 2050on atmospheric chemistry, for a 1-year integration for 1995 and 2050
MPI-CHEMIE
Outlook: Process RepresentationOutlook: Process Representation
Model (a) mean annual NO flux (ngModel (a) mean annual NO flux (ng NN mm 22 ss 11), (b) mean annual soil), (b) mean annual soilnitrogen (NOnitrogen (NO
33 and NH and NH
44++ and sum) concentration ( and sum) concentration (gg gg 11 dd 11).).
Impact of deforestation on soil-biogenic NOImpact of deforestation on soil-biogenic NOxx emis emis.; DayCent, .; DayCent,
Kirkman, Meixner et al., (submitted)Kirkman, Meixner et al., (submitted)
Introducing more mechanistic Introducing more mechanistic representation of soil-biogenic N emissionsrepresentation of soil-biogenic N emissions
Role of subgrid-scale land conversion: non-linear effects Role of subgrid-scale land conversion: non-linear effects on meteorology and atmospheric chemistry; on meteorology and atmospheric chemistry;
Single-Column Model, Meso-scale models, e.g., RAMSSingle-Column Model, Meso-scale models, e.g., RAMS70-80 km
echam5-T106 > 100 km
MPI-CHEMIE
MESSy – coupling chemistry etc. to GCMsMax-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germanyin collaboration withDLR Oberpfaffenhofen, GermanyMPI for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Chemistry: R. Sander, A. Kerkweg, R. von Kuhlmann, B. Steil, R. von Glasow
Lagrangian Advection: C. Reithmeier, V. Grewe,G. Erhardt, R. Sausen, P. Jöckel, M. Traub
Aerosols: S. Metzger, P. Stier, A. Kerkweg,J. Wilson+, E.Vignati+, J. Feichter
Emission/Deposition: L. Ganzeveld, P. Stier,J. van Aardenne, Y. Balkanski+, M. Schulz+,W. Guelle+, V. Grewe, P. Jöckel, S. Metzger,G. J. Roelofs+
Polar stratospheric clouds: J. Buchholz,S. Meilinger, K. Carslaw
Photolysis: J. Landgraf, C. Brühl, P. Jöckel,R. Sander
Scavenging: H. Tost, L. Ganzeveld
Convective tracer transport: M. Lawrence, H. Tost,P. Jöckel, S. Brinkop, M. Ponater, C. Kurz
14CO, 222Rn, and passive tracer diagnostics:P. Jöckel
Tropopause diagnostics: P. Jöckel, M. TraubStratospheric H2O: C. Brühl, B Steil, P. JöckelTracer assimilation: L. Ganzeveld, P. JöckelFlexible data output: A. Rhodin, R. Sander,
P. Jöckel
Automatic rediscretization of input data: P. Jöckel
http://www.messy-interface.org
+external contribution, current maintainer/coordinator
... to be extended ...
more detailed references: see web-page
Scientific Coordination: Jos LelieveldTechnical Coordination: Patrick Jöckel & Rolf Sander
Contributions to the program code:
MPI-CHEMIEConclusions/Outlook: Scenario CompilationConclusions/Outlook: Scenario Compilation
How realistic are the IMAGE land cover and land use scenarios? How realistic are the IMAGE land cover and land use scenarios?
ComparisonComparison with with local/regionallocal/regional scale land cover and land use management scenarios scale land cover and land use management scenarios
LAI: IMAGE-2050 – IMAGE-1995 3.5
0
-2.5
LAI: IMAGE-1995 – Olson-1995 3.5
0
-2.5
Olson ’92Olson ’92, 72 ecosystems &, 72 ecosystems &NDVI data: annual cycle in NDVI data: annual cycle in biomassbiomass
IMAGEIMAGE, 19 land cover, 19 land coverclasses, 10-year intervalclasses, 10-year interval
MPI-CHEMIE
Laurens Ganzeveld:
Introduction: the oxidizing capacity is also often referred to as the clean(s)ing capacity since the oxidation of precursor gasses such as methane, CO and SO2 results in the production of more soluble and reactive reaction products which are more efficiently being removed by wet and dry deposition or prone to further chemical destruction. So a change in the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere will result in a change in the atmospheric lifetime of many precursors such as methane is therefore also relevant to climate change.
Laurens Ganzeveld:
Introduction: the oxidizing capacity is also often referred to as the clean(s)ing capacity since the oxidation of precursor gasses such as methane, CO and SO2 results in the production of more soluble and reactive reaction products which are more efficiently being removed by wet and dry deposition or prone to further chemical destruction. So a change in the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere will result in a change in the atmospheric lifetime of many precursors such as methane is therefore also relevant to climate change.