MPU 2010:3101215

Figure 01. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages

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Source: The Riksbank

Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate. This uncertainty band does not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.

Figure 02. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note.The uncertainty band shows the band within which GDP growth is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the National Accounts figures are revised several years after the preliminary publication.

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Figure 03. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability.

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Figure 04. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. The uncertainty regarding the CPIF forecast is based on the Riksbank's forecast errors for the CPIX during the period 1999 until the introduction of published CPIF forecasts in 2008, with an adjustment for the fact that the CPIF and the CPIX have varied to different degrees.

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Figure 05. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data

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Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 06. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data

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Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years.

Figure 07. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data

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Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 year.

Figure 08. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. CPIF is CPI with a fixed mortgage interest rate.

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Figure 09. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

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Source: The RiksbankNote. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period.

Figure 10. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100

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Source: The RiksbankNote. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.

Figure 11. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel

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Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the RiksbankNote. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices.

Figure 12. Development of GDP in different regions and countriesQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally adjusted data

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Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 13. GDP-gap and RU-indicatorPercentage deviation from potential level and standard deviation

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Sources: Statisitcs Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. GDP-gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a Hodric Prescott filter. The GDP gap (PF) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production funtion. The RU-indicator is normalized so that the mean value is zero and the standard deviation is 1.

Figure 14. Hours gapPercentage deviation from potential level

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Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked calculated with a Hodrick Prescott-filter. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank's assumed trend for the numbers of hours worked.

Table A1. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average values

Source: The Riksbank

2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 Repo rate 0.55 1.0 (1.0) 1.4 (1.3 ) 2.0 (2.0) 2.9 (2.9) 3.4 (3.4)

Table A2. Inflation, annual averageAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate. HICP is an EU harmonised index of consumer prices which does not include household mortgage costs.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 CPI -0.3 1.3 (1.2) 2.2 (1.7) 2.0 (2.2) 2.6 (2.6) CPIF 1.9 2.1 (2.0) 1.7 (1.3) 1.4 (1.5) 1.9 (1.9) CPIF excl. energy 2.3 1.7 (1.7) 1.6 (1.5) 1.6 (1.6) 2.0 (1.9) HICP 1.9 1.9 (1.8) 1.5 (1.0) 1.1 (1.3) 1.7 (1.7)

Table A3. Summary of financial forecastsAnnual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Repo rate 0.7 0.5 (0.5) 1.7 (1.7) 2.6 (2.6) 3.3 (3.3) 10-year rate 3.3 2.8 (2.8) 3.2 (3.1) 3.8 (3.7) 4.3 (4.3) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100 140.2 129.3 (129.1) 121.8 (121.9) 121.4 (121.4) 122.2 (122.2) General government net lending* -1.0 0.6 (0.4) 2.0 (1.4) 2.1 (1.6) 1.9 (1.2)

* Per cent of GDP

Table A4. International conditionsAnnual percentage change

Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank

Note. The figures in parentheses indicate the global purchasing-power adjusted GDP-weights, according to the IMF.The Swedish export market index is calculated as a weighted average of the imports of the 15 countries which are the largest recipients of Swedish exports. They receive approximately 70 per cent of Swedish exports.

GDP 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Euro area (0,15) -4.0 1.7 (1.6) 1.5 (1.3) 1.8 (1.9) 2.3 (2.2) USA (0,20) -2.6 2.8 (2.7) 3.0 (2.4) 3.4 (3.0) 2.9 (3.1) Japan (0,06) -5.3 4.3 (2.9) 1.5 (1.3) 1.7 (1.6) 1.8 (1.8) OECD (0,57) -3.4 2.9 (2.7) 2.5 (2.2) 2.8 (2.6) 2.7 (2.7) TCW-weighted (0,49) -3.9 1.9 (1.9) 1.8 (1.7) 2.1 (2.0) 2.3 (2.2) World (1,00) -0.7 4.7 (4.6) 4.1 (4.0) 4.3 (4.3) 4.3 (4.4) CPI 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Euroområdet (HIKP) 0.3 1.5 (1.5) 1.5 (1.4) 1.2 (1.2) 1.8 (1.8) USA -0.3 1.6 (1.7) 1.5 (1.5) 1.6 (1.3) 2.0 (1.5) Japan -1.4 -0.9 (-0.9) -0.3 (-0.2) 0.3 (0.2) 0.5 (0.6) TCW-weighted 0.5 1.6 (1.6) 1.5 (1.5) 1.4 (1.3) 1.8 (1.7) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Policy rates in the rest of the world, TCW-weighted 0.7 (0.7) 0.5 (0.5) 0.8 (0.8) 1.4 (1.3) 2.5 (2.4) Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent 62 79 (79) 89 (86) 89 (89) 90 (90) Swedish export market -13.1 10.0 (10.0) 8.1 (8.0) 7.0 (6.9) 6.5 (6.4)

Table A5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendar-adjusted, unless otherwise stated. NA is the National Accounts.

*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

Table A6. Production and employmentAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Potential hours refers to the long-term sustainable level for the number of hours worked.

* Per cent of labour force

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Population, aged 16-64 0.7 0.4 (0.4) 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) -0.1 (-0.1) Potential hours worked 1.2 0.9 (0.9) 0.5 (0.5) 0.4 (0.4) 0.0 (0.2) GDP, calendar-adjusted -5.3 5.3 (4.6) 4.4 (3.9) 2.7 (2.9) 2.4 (2.4) Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted -2.6 1.8 (1.6) 1.9 (1.5) 1.0 (0.8) 0.6 (0.5) Employed, aged 15-74 -2.1 1.0 (0.9) 2.0 (1.7) 0.9 (0.9) 0.5 (0.6) Labour force, aged 15-74 0.2 1.1 (1.0) 1.0 (0.7) 0.3 (0.4) 0.1 (0.2) Unemployment, aged 15-74 * 8.3 8.4 (8.4) 7.5 (7.6) 7.0 (7.2) 6.6 (6.8)

Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. NMO is the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics and NA is the National Accounts. Labour cost per hour is defined as the sum of actual wages, collective charges and wage taxes divided by the seasonally adjusted total number of hours worked. Unit labour cost is defined as labour cost divided by seasonally adjusted value added at constant prices.

* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Hourly wage, NMO 3.4 2.6 (2.5) 2.7 (2.7) 3.2 (3.1) 3.5 (3.4) Hourly wage, NA 2.8 1.4 (1.7) 2.9 (2.9) 3.4 (3.4) 3.7 (3.6) Employer’s contribution* -1.0 -0.2 (-0.1) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) Hourly labour cost, NA 1.8 1.2 (1.6) 2.9 (3.0) 3.4 (3.4) 3.7 (3.6) Productivity -2.7 3.5 (2.9) 2.5 (2.3) 1.7 (2.0) 1.8 (1.9) Unit labour cost 4.7 -2.2 (-1.2) 0.4 (0.6) 1.7 (1.3) 1.9 (1.7)