MPU April 2009

Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

1

2

3

4

5

690%75%50%Repo rate

Source: The RiksbankNote. The uncertainty interval does not take into account the zero interest rate bound.

Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

690%75%50%CPI

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. The broken line represents the main scenario forecast.

Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

90%75%50%GDP

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 4. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised

terms, seasonally adjusted data

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

FebruaryApril

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 5. UnemployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Unemployment 16-64 yearUnemployment 15-74 yearAprilFebruary

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 6. Labour force and number of employed

Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 123800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000Labour force 15-74 year

Labour force 16-64 year

Employed 15-74 year

Employed 16-64 year

Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 7. CPI Annual percentage change

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5April

February

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 8. CPI, CPIF and CPIXAnnual percentage change

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5CPICPIFCPIF exclusive energy

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 9. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

1

2

3

4

5

April

February

Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 10. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4April

February

Source: The RiksbankNote. Real repo rate is calculated using the Riksbank’s one-year inflation forecasts.

Figure 11. TCW-weighted exchange rateIndex, 18.11.92 = 100

Source: The Riksbank

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160April

February

Figure 12. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel, futures price

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

20

40

60

80

100

120

140Oil price - Outcome

Futures, MPR February

Futures, average up to and including 15 April 2009

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

Figure 13. GDP for the USA and the euro area

Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

USA

Euro area

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Figure 14. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

80 85 90 95 00 05 10-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6GDP

Hours worked

Employment

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Table 1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change

2008 2009 2010 2011

CPI 3.4 -0.3 (-0.5) 1.3 (1.6) 3.2 (3.2)

CPIF 2.7 1.9 (1.6) 1.8 (1.6) 2.0 (1.8)

CPIF excl. energy 2.0 2.4 (2.2) 2.1 (1.8) 2.0 (1.7)

CPIX 2.5 1.5 (1.3) 1.5 (1.2) 1.7 (1.5)

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.

Table 2. Inflation, 12-month average Annual percentage change

Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12

CPI 0.2 (-0.1) 1.1 (1.4) 2.6 (2.9) 4.1 (3.3) CPIF 1.9 (1.9) 1.9 (1.7) 2.0 (1.8) 2.3 (1.9)

CPIF excl. energy 2.1 (2.0) 2.2 (1.9) 2.0 (1.7) 2.2 (1.9)

CPIX 1.5 (1.6) 1.7 (1.3) 1.7 (1.5) 2.0 (1.6)

Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table 3. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average values

Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Repo rate 1.5 0.6 (0.9) 0.5 (0.8) 0.8 (1.6) 3.0 (3.2)

Source: The Riksbank

Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.

Table 4. Summary of financial forecasts, annual average

Per cent, unless otherwise specified

2008 2009 2010 2011

Repo rate 4.1 0.8 (1.0) 0.5 (0.9) 1.6 (2.2) 10-year rate 3.9 3.1 (2.9) 3.7 (3.6) 4.2 (4.1) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 18 November 1992=100

127.2 142.7 (140.0) 134.8 (134.5) 132.4 (131.9)

General government net lending* 2.5 (2.3) -2.9 (-1.7) -3.9 (-2.6) -2.6 (-1.3)

* Per cent of GDP

Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table 5. International conditionsAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise

specified

GDP 2008 2009 2010 2011

USA 1.1 (1.3) -3.2 (-2.0) 0.7 (1.0) 3.0 (3.2) Japan -0.7 (0.0) -6.0 (-2.3) -0.3 (0.2) 1.6 (1.6)

Euro area 0.7 (0.8) -3.6 (-2.0) 0.1 (0.4) 1.6 (1.7)

OECD 0.9 (1.1) -3.6 (-1.9) 0.6 (0.9) 2.4 (2.5)

TCW-weighted 0.8 (0.9) -3.6 (-1.8) 0.1 (0.6) 1.9 (2.0)

World 3.2 (3.4) -1.1 (0.4) 2.1 (2.6) 3.8 (3.9)

CPI 2008 2009 2010 2011

USA 3.8 -0.8 (-0.5) 1.2 (1.8) 2.0 (2.2) Japan 1.4 -0.9 (0.0) -0.2 (0.5) 0.5 (1.0) Euro area (HICP) 3.3 0.3 (0.8) 1.0 (1.4) 1.6 (1.8) OECD 3.5 (3.6) 0.3 (0.8) 1.3 (1.7) 1.9 (2.0)

TCW-weighted 3.3 (3.2) 0.3 (0.8) 1.1 (1.5) 1.6 (1.8)

2008 2009 2010 2011

Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent 97 52 (50) 63 (59) 68 (63) Swedish export market growth 1.2 (1.7) -9.5 (-3.0) -0.5 (1.6) 7.5 (5.4)

Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank

Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.

Table 6. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise

specified

2008 2009 2010 2011

Private consumption -0.2 (0.8) -1.2 (-0.6) 1.6 (1.9) 2.0 (2.5) Public consumption 1.3 (0.9) 0.4 (0.7) 0.6 (0.8) 0.7 (0.8) Gross fixed capital formation 3.5 (3.9) -10.3 (-5.4) -5.6 (-1.2) 5.5 (4.2) Inventory investment* -0.7 (-0.2) -1.1 (0.2) 0.7 (-0.2) 0.2 (0.1) Exports 1.7 (2.0) -14.2 (-6.0) 2.3 (3.2) 6.2 (6.4) Imports 3.0 (3.3) -14.3 (-5.6) 1.0 (1.4) 5.4 (5.3) GDP -0.2 (0.7) -4.5 (-1.6) 1.3 (1.7) 3.1 (3.2) GDP, calendar-adjusted -0.5 (0.4) -4.4 (-1.4) 1.0 (1.4) 3.1 (3.2) Current account (NR), % of GDP 8.2 (8.2) 8.1 (7.8) 8.5 (8.4) 8.9 (8.9)

*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.

Table 7. Production and employment

Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

* Procent av arbetskraften

Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.

Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

2008 2009 2010 2011

Population, aged 16-64 0.8 (0.8) 0.5 (0.5) 0.2 (0.2) 0.0 (0.0) GDP, calendar-adjusted -0.5 (0.4) -4.4 (-1.4) 1.0 (1.4) 3.1 (3.2) Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted 0.9 (1.2) -2.6 (-2.1) -2.2 (-1.5) 0.5 (0.4) Employed (EU definition) 1.2 (1.2) -2.7 (-2.0) -2.9 (-1.6) -0.3 (0.0)

Labour force (EU definition) 1.2 (1.3) -0.1 (-0.1) -0.7 (-0.5) -0.3 (0.0) Unemployment , aged 15-74*(EU definition) 6.2 (6.2) 8.7 (8.0) 10.7 (9.1) 10.7 (9.0)

Table 8. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole

Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified, calendar-adjusted data

2008 2009 2010 2011

Hourly wage, NMO 4.3 (4.3) 3.5 (3.5) 2.3 (2.9) 2.6 (3.1) Hourly wage, NA 4.8 (4.9) 3.6 (3.6) 2.4 (3.0) 2.8 (3.4) Employer’s contributions* -0.7 (-1.0) -0.1 (-0.1) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) Hourly labour cost, NA 4.2 (3.9) 3.5 (3.5) 2.4 (3.1) 2.9 (3.4)

Productivity -1.5 (-0.8) -1.8 (0.6) 3.2 (2.9) 2.6 (2.7)

Unit labour cost 5.7 (4.7) 5.4 (2.8) -0.8 (0.1) 0.2 (0.7)

* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.