mpu september 2009 2009.09.03
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MPU September 2009 2009.09.03. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages. Source: The Riksbank. Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
MPU September
20092009.09.03
Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
790%75%50%Repo rateForecast
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
690%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms, seasonally-adjusted data
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
July
September
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 5. UnemployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
80 85 90 95 00 05 100
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Unemployment, 16-64 years
Unemployment, 15-74 years
SeptemberJuly
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years.
Figure 6. Labour force and number of employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
80 85 90 95 00 05 103800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000Employed, 16-64 yearsEmployed, 15-74 yearsLabour force, 16-64 yearsLabour force, 15-74 years
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 7. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy
Annual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5CPICPIF
CPIF excluding energy
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 8. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3July
September
Source: The RiksbankNote. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 9. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100
Source: The Riksbank
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
September
July
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 10. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Outcome
Futures, average up to andincluding 26 August
Futures, July
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 11. Development of GDP in different regions and countries
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
Sweden
Euro area
USA
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 12. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
80 85 90 95 00 05 10-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5GDP
Hours worked
Employment
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. These gaps should not necessarily be interpreted as the Riksbank's overall assesment of resource utilisation. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.