Mr Dean Bowley

Dr Coen van Antwerpen

OR MS

History

Wargames

HS

The Theoretical and Pragmatic Basis for Australian Army Modernisation Research

“If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn’t be research, would it?” – Albert Einstein.

Central Themes

The problem domain is complex and coercive

The decision domain is at least complex and pluralist

Analytical Programs need to be ecumenical

Wargames provide a useful method of retaining the whole and defining the parts

Central Themes

The problem domain is complex and coercive Complex adaptive systems within an uncertain environment Long-term systemic intervention Robustness and adaptability are the principle determinants of

success

The decision domain is at least complex and pluralist Formulation and solution are participative Conducting the analysis is as important as resolving the problem It is about organisational intervention and change

Problem Perspectives

Unitary Pluralist Coercive

Simple Machines Coalitions Prisons

Complex Organisms, cybernetics

Cultures, commerce

WarfareMesses

If I had time and anything like your ability to study war, I think I should concentrate almost entirely on the “actualities of war” – the effects of tiredness, hunger, fear, lack of sleep, weather…The principles of strategy and tactics, and the logistics of war are really absurdly simple: it is the actualities that make war

so complicated and so difficult, and are usually so neglected by historians.

Field Marshall Lord Wavell in a letter to Liddell Hart

Central Themes

The problem domain is complex and coercive

The decision domain is at least complex and pluralist

Analytical Programs need to be ecumenical Formulation and solution distinct yet inseparable All techniques, for many perspectives Inherently multi-methodological

Central Themes

The problem domain is complex and coercive

The decision domain is at least complex and pluralist

Analytical Programs need to be ecumenical

Wargames provide a useful method of retaining the whole and defining the parts

Simultaneously models the world (hard) and surfaces world views (soft)

Combines threat, terrain, tactics and technology Allows exploration and evaluation

Problem Formulation

Problem Resolution

Identification Interpretation

WFE

Operations Analysis

Analytic (Seminar) Wargames

Constructive (Closed) Simulation

Human-in-the-Loop (Open) Simulation

Live (Field) Simulation

Influence Decisions

STUDIES

Historical Studies

External Validity

Internal Validity

Application

HumanSciences

StatisticalAnalysis

of Operations

Problem Domain and Validity

Professional Military

JudgementThreat

Terrain

ExternalValidity

InternalValidity

Wargaming &Simulation

OperationalExperience

Why Wargaming

“plans are useless but planning is indispensable”

“solutions are useless, but intervention is indispensable”Attributed to Eisenhower

Plan or Solution: “captures the regularities” of the system

Planning; intervention: “understanding the world and the world views of the people involved”

A Final Word on Wargames & Simulation

“Probably no form of military study is more useful if properly conduct, as certainly none is so liable if misused.”

Characteristics an active and intelligent enemy capable of developing strategies to

defeat concepts and capabilities quantitative adjudication of the physics of battles, engagement,

movement, detection and logistics a model of the physical and political context in which to observe

strategies evolve in conflict Model of terrain and tactics Threat and technology as variables

Central Themes

The problem domain is complex and coercive Complex adaptive systems within an uncertain environment Long-term systemic intervention Robustness and adaptability are the principle determinants of success

The decision domain is at least complex and pluralist Formulation and solution are participative Conducting the analysis is as important as resolving the problem It is about organisational intervention and change

Analytical Programs need to be ecumenical Formulation and solution distinct yet inseparable All techniques, for many perspectives Inherently multi-methodological

Wargames provide a useful method of retaining the whole and defining the parts

Simultaneously models the world (hard) and surfaces world views (soft) Combines threat, terrain, tactics and technology Allows exploration and evaluation