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Mark and recapture is a method commonly used in ecology to estimate an animal population's size. A portion of the population is captured, marked, and released. Later, another portion is captured and the number of marked individuals within the sample is counted. Since the number of marked individuals within the second sample should be proportional to the number of marked individuals in the whole population, an estimate of the total population size can be obtained by dividing the number of marked individuals by the proportion of marked individuals in the second sample. The method is most useful when it is not practical to count all the individuals in the population. Other names for this method, or closely related methods, include capture-recapture, capture-mark-recapture, mark- recapture, sight-resight, mark-release-recapture,multiple systems estimation, band recovery, the Petersen method [1] and the Lincoln method. Another major application for these methods is in epidemiology, [2] where they are used to estimate the completeness of ascertainment of disease registers. Typical applications include estimating the number of people needing particular services (i.e. services for children with learning disabilities, services for medically frail elderly living in the community), or with particular conditions(i.e. illegal drug addicts, people infected with HIV, etc.). Let N = Number of animals in the population K = Number of animals marked on the first visit n = Number of animals captured on the second visit k = Number of recaptured animals that were marked A biologist wants to estimate the size of a population of turtles in a lake. She captures 10 turtles on her first visit to the lake, and marks their backs with paint. A week later she returns to the lake and captures 15 turtles. Five of these 15 turtles have paint on their backs, indicating that they are recaptured animals. This example is (K, n, k) = (10, 15, 5). The problem is to estimate N.

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Mark and Recapture

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Mark and recaptureis a method commonly used inecologyto estimate an animalpopulation's size. A portion of the population is captured, marked, and released. Later, another portion is captured and the number of marked individuals within the sample is counted. Since the number of marked individuals within the second sample should be proportional to the number of marked individuals in the whole population, an estimate of the total population size can be obtained by dividing the number of marked individuals by the proportion of marked individuals in the second sample. The method is most useful when it is not practical to count all the individuals in the population. Other names for this method, or closely related methods, includecapture-recapture,capture-mark-recapture,mark-recapture,sight-resight,mark-release-recapture,multiple systems estimation,band recovery,the Petersen method[1]andthe Lincoln method.Another major application for these methods is inepidemiology,[2]where they are used to estimate the completeness of ascertainment of disease registers. Typical applications includeestimatingthe number of people needing particular services (i.e. services for children withlearning disabilities, services formedically frailelderly living in the community), or with particular conditions(i.e. illegal drug addicts, people infected withHIV, etc.).LetN= Number of animals in the populationK= Number of animals marked on the first visitn= Number of animals captured on the second visitk= Number of recaptured animals that were markedA biologist wants to estimate the size of a population of turtles in a lake. She captures 10 turtles on her first visit to the lake, and marks their backs with paint. A week later she returns to the lake and captures 15 turtles. Five of these 15 turtles have paint on their backs, indicating that they are recaptured animals. This example is (K, n, k) = (10, 15, 5). The problem is to estimateN.TheLincolnPetersen method[4](also known as the PetersenLincoln index[3]orLincoln index) can be used to estimate population size if only two visits are made to the study area. This method assumes that the study population is "closed"[citation needed]. In other words, the two visits to the study area are close enough in time so that no individuals die, are born, move into the study area (immigrate) or move out of the study area (emigrate) between visits. The model also assumes that no marks fall off animals between visits to the field site by the researcher, and that the researcher correctly records all marks.Given those conditions, estimated population size is:


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