msba annual leadership summit “missouri’s changing face: a glimpse of tomorrow” by dr. daryl...
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MSBA ANNUAL LEADERSHIP SUMMIT
“Missouri’s Changing Face:A Glimpse of Tomorrow”
by Dr. Daryl J. Hobbs
June 27, 2003
http://www.oseda.missouri.edu
Change in Population 1980-2000
•Missouri’s population increased from 4,917,000 in 1980 to 5,117,000 in 1990 – an increase of 4.1 percent.
•Population increased from 5,117,000 in 1990 to 5,595,000 in 2000 – an increase of 9.3 percent – more than double the increase during the 1980s.
•However, national population which increased by 9.8 percent during the 1980s increased by 13.1 percent in 2000. There were 29 states whose population increased by a larger percentage than Missouri during the 1990s.
•Therefore, even though Missouri population increased by more than twice the rate in the 1990s than during the 1980s, it dropped from being the 15th most populated state in 1990 to 17th in 2000.
Missouri’s Metro and Non-Metro PopulationMissouri’s Metro and Non-Metro Population
SOURCE: USDC, Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing [2000 SF1; 1990 STF1]Table produced by: University Outreach and Extension, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (Feb. 2002)
Number Percent Births DeathsNatural
IncreaseNet Migration
478,138 9.3 753,673 534,120 219,553 258,585
303,930 8.7 533,051 335,423 197,628 106,302
92,061 9.4 151,194 92,855 58,339 33,722100,232 5.3 289,492 181,937 107,555 -7,323111,637 18.3 92,365 60,631 31,734 79,903174,208 10.7 220,637 198,711 21,926 152,282
Change, 1990-2000 Components of Change, 1990-2000
Percent Change in Missouri Population by Percent Change in Missouri Population by Age Cohorts, 1990-2000Age Cohorts, 1990-2000
0.2
11.9
3.6
-13.3
29.6
10.9
3.2
21.4
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
SOURCE: USDC, Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing, Summary File 1 (2000); Summary Tape File 1 (1990)Produced by: The Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis, UOE [E.J. Cleveland, Nov. 2001]
Missouri Hispanic Population, 1990-2000Missouri Hispanic Population, 1990-2000
NOTE:* Newton is a metropolitan county but is included in the Top 8 agriculture producing counties** The eight Missouri counties having the greatest agricultural commodity sales also had the greatest non-metro Hispanic population increases during the 1990sSource: USDC, Bureau of the Census, "Census of Population and Housing"
2000 1990 Number Percent 2000 1990
Missouri 118,592 61,702 56,890 92.2 2.1 1.2
Total Metropolitan Areas* 88,137 49,315 38,822 78.7 2.4 1.5
NonMetropolitan Counties 30,455 12,207 18,248 149.5 1.5 0.7Top 8 Agriculture Producing Counties** 6,638 815 5,823 714.5 4.0 0.6Remainder of Non-Metro Counties 23,817 11,392 12,425 109.1 1.3 0.7
Change Pct. Of Total Population
Hispanic Population
Missouri’s Hispanic School Enrollment by School Year
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
Enrollment
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Yea
r
SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, Core DataPrepared by: University Outreach and Extension, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis – (OSEDA)
Chart Generated on 3.5.2002
5,62
9,70
7
5,59
5,21
1
5,56
1,94
8
5,52
1,76
5
5,48
1,19
3
5,43
1,55
3
5,37
8,24
7
5,32
4,49
7
5,27
1,17
5
5,21
7,10
1
5,17
0,80
0
5,12
8,88
0
5,11
6,90
1
4,800,000
4,900,000
5,000,000
5,100,000
5,200,000
5,300,000
5,400,000
5,500,000
5,600,000
5,700,000
1-Ju
l-90
1-Ju
l-91
1-Ju
l-92
1-Ju
l-93
1-Ju
l-94
1-Ju
l-95
1-Ju
l-96
1-Ju
l-97
1-Ju
l-98
1-Ju
l-99
April
1 20
00
1-Ju
l-01
1-Ju
l-02
Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Missouri
SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)
44,3
48
34,4
96
33,2
6340
,183
40,5
72
49,6
4053,3
06
53,7
50
53,3
2254
,074
46,3
01
41,9
20
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jul '9
0 - J
ul '91
Jul '9
1 - J
ul '92
Jul '9
2 - J
ul '93
Jul '9
3 - J
ul '94
Jul '9
4 - J
ul '95
Jul '9
5 - J
ul '96
Jul '9
6 - J
ul '97
Jul '9
7 - J
ul '98
Jul '9
8 - J
ul '99
Jul '9
9 - A
pr '00
Apr '0
0 - J
ul '0
1
Jul '0
1 - J
ul '02
Change in Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Missouri
SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)
357,8
60
357,3
05
358,1
32
358,3
80
357,9
01
357,3
66
356,5
43
354,3
01
352,3
07
350,6
81
348,0
93
345,9
57
344,2
14
335,000
340,000
345,000
350,000
355,000
360,000
1-Apr-9
0
1-Ju
l-91
1-Ju
l-92
1-Ju
l-93
1-Ju
l-94
1-Ju
l-95
1-Ju
l-96
1-Ju
l-97
1-Ju
l-98
1-Ju
l-99
April
1 20
00
1-Ju
l-01
1-Ju
l-02
Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Southeast Missouri Extension Region
SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)
555
-827-2
48
47953
582
3
2,24
2
1,99
4
1,62
6
2,58
8
2,13
6
1,74
3
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Jul '9
0 - J
ul '91
Jul '9
1 - J
ul '92
Jul '9
2 - J
ul '93
Jul '9
3 - J
ul '94
Jul '9
4 - J
ul '95
Jul '9
5 - J
ul '96
Jul '9
6 - J
ul '97
Jul '9
7 - J
ul '98
Jul '9
8 - J
ul '99
Jul '9
9 - A
pr '00
Apr '0
0 - J
ul '0
1
Jul '0
1 - J
ul '02
Change in Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Southeast Missouri Extension Region
SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)
744,6
81
737,2
73
728,0
89
719,6
82
708,5
11
697,4
47
685,0
20
671,9
24
655,3
25
636,6
26
618,9
47
604,8
53
591,2
77
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1-Apr-9
0
1-Ju
l-91
1-Ju
l-92
1-Ju
l-93
1-Ju
l-94
1-Ju
l-95
1-Ju
l-96
1-Ju
l-97
1-Ju
l-98
1-Ju
l-99
April
1 20
00
1-Ju
l-01
1-Ju
l-02
Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Southwest Missouri Extension Region
SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)
7,40
8
9,18
4
8,40
7
11,1
71
11,0
6412,4
2713,0
96
16,5
9918
,699
17,6
79
14,0
94
13,5
76
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Jul '9
0 - J
ul '91
Jul '9
1 - J
ul '92
Jul '9
2 - J
ul '93
Jul '9
3 - J
ul '94
Jul '9
4 - J
ul '95
Jul '9
5 - J
ul '96
Jul '9
6 - J
ul '97
Jul '9
7 - J
ul '98
Jul '9
8 - J
ul '99
Jul '9
9 - A
pr '00
Apr '0
0 - J
ul '0
1
Jul '0
1 - J
ul '02
Change in Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Southwest Missouri Extension Region
SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)
893,
846
890,
199
892,
975
895,
624
896,
149
893,
618
884,
363
873,
469
862,
658
852,
437
841,
168
830,
150
816,
670
760,000
780,000
800,000
820,000
840,000
860,000
880,000
900,000
920,000
'199
1'1
992
'199
3'1
994
'199
5'1
996
'199
7'1
998
'199
9'2
000
'200
1'2
002
'200
3
Total School Enrollment by Year, 1991-2003Missouri
SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary EducationProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/26/03)
Percent Change in School EnrollmentMissouri
SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary EducationProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/26/03)
5.630%
2.540%
0.098%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
'91 - '95 96 - '00 '01 - '03
3.6
-2.8-2
.6
-0.5
2.5
9.3
10.9
10.8
10.2
11.3
11.0
13.4
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
'91
- '92
'92
- '93
'93
- '94
'94
- '95
'95
- '96
'96
- '97
'97
- '98
'98
- '99
'99
- '00
'00
- '01
'01
- '02
'02
- '03
Annual Numerical Change in Total School Enrollment by Year, 1991-2003 (in thousands)
Missouri
SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary EducationProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/26/03)
0.54
0.500.
600.70
0.90
1.701.
70
2.20
2.40
2.402.
50
1.70
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
'91
- '92
'92
- '93
'93
- '94
'94
- '95
'95
- '96
'96
- '97
'97
- '98
'98
- '99
'99
- '00
'00
- '01
'01
- '02
'02
- '03
Annual Numerical Change in Total School Enrollment by Year, 1991-2003 (in thousands)
Southwest Missouri Extension Region
SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary EducationProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/27/03)
0.50
-0.8
0-1
.40-0
.30
2.00
5.10
5.00
4.20
3.20
4.60
3.30
6.30
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
'91
- '92
'92
- '93
'93
- '94
'94
- '95
'95
- '96
'96
- '97
'97
- '98
'98
- '99
'99
- '00
'00
- '01
'01
- '02
'02
- '03
Annual Numerical Change in Total School Enrollment by Year, 1991-2003 (in thousands)
East Central Missouri Extension Region
SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary EducationProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/27/03)
The Missouri Census Data Center has created a report that shows the just released definitions of Core Based Statistical Areas for Missouri. The CBSA's are a replacement for the metropolitan areas. We still have entities called MSA's (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) but the criteria for defining them has changed. It changed just enough to allow Jefferson City to now be classified as an MSA even though it does not have a central city of 50,000. Instead it has a "core area" with 50,000 people and it doesn't matter whether this population cluster happens to all fall within an incorporated place. Entirely new micropolitan areas have also been created based on the same concept as MSAs except the core area does not have to be as large. Missouri has lots of these.