msiagrowthexperience dr -ariff (1)
DESCRIPTION
mAlaysianTRANSCRIPT
-
GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT OF GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT OF THE MALAYSIAN ECONOMYTHE MALAYSIAN ECONOMY
-- An overview An overview --
MOHAMED ARIFF
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
1
-
MALAYSIA: GDP GROWTH
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1
9
5
7
1
9
6
0
1
9
7
0
1
9
8
0
1
9
9
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
GDP Growth (%)
%
Source: DOS 2
-
Factors Contributing to Strong Economic Growth
Economic openness Stable macroeconomic policies High savings rate Investment in human capital Demographic factors Asian values Geographical location
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.3
-
Malaysias Winning Strategy An outward looking economic strategy
Liberal trade and foreign investment policies
Prudent macroeconomic management Especially monetary policy
Active state intervention, business-friendly Government plays a developmental role
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.4
-
Diversification of the Economy Reducing over-dependence on primary
commodities ie. Rubber and tin Diversifying agricultural exports from rubber
to palm oil Petroleum and gas production provided
another primary commodity engine for growth Shift from agriculture to manufacturing
Malaysia is major producer of semiconductor devices
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.5
-
Transition from agriculture to manufacturing
05
1015202530354045
Agriculture 40.2 31.5 27.7 20.8 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.7 9.3 9.3 8.3 8.7Manufacturing 8.2 10.4 16.4 19.7 27.1 31.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.4 29.8 29.8
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
* Estimates from Ministry of Finance, ** Forecast by Ministry of Finance
Source: Departm ent of Statistics
Change in Composition of Output (share of GDP)
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.6
-
Economic Openness
Adopting outward looking export-oriented trade strategy to attain higher rates of economic growth
Actively seeking foreign investment Setting the stage for export and investment-led
growth Realistic exchange rate
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.7
-
Industrialisation 1960s: Import substitution 1970s: Export orientation 1980s: Development in heavy industries 1990 onwards: Value-added manufacturing
Widening industrial baseManufacturing plus-plus
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.8
-
1960s: Import Substitution Strategy
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Industries produced essentially for domestic market
To promote import-substituting industries, government subsidised the establishment of new factories and protects the domestic market.
Limitations: saturation of domestic market, failure to penetrate export markets
9
-
1970s: Export Oriented Industrialisation
Based on export-processing zones (EPZs) Foreign firms employ low-wage labour to
assemble imported raw materials and components for exports
Major producers in EPZs are E&E, textiles and garment factories
Limitations: inability to sustain industrial expansion, dependence of external demand
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.10
-
1980s: Heavy Industry Development Heavy industrialisation included national
car project, motorcycle engine plants, iron and steel mills, cement factories, petrol reining and petrochemical project, pulp and paper mill
Look East policy to emulate success in Japan and Republic of Korea
Continuing promotion of resource-based industries QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressorare needed to see this picture.11
-
1990s: Value-added Manufacturing Manufacturing ++ strategy with emphasis on full
integration of manufacturing operations through value chain to enhance industrial linkages, increase productivity and competitiveness
Shift from traditional industry-based approach to cluster-based approach to include development of industrial clusters, key suppliers and requisite economic foundations
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.12
-
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY: DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY: EVOLUTIONEVOLUTION
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.13
-
1971-85: NEP and State Intervention Racial riot prompted major rethink in
economic planning Economic policy adjustments were made:
strong and direct intervention of the state New Economic Policy (NEP) was
introduced, placing interest of the Malay community
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.14
-
1986-96: Economic Liberalisation and Private Sector-led Growth
Government took a back seat to allow private sector to be the lead engine of growth
Role of government reduced to providing necessary infrastructure and conducive investment environment
Dismantling investment barriers created new opportunities from cross borders
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.15
-
FUTURE TRENDSFUTURE TRENDS
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.16
-
VISION 2020VISION 2020
Objectives:Objectives:United MalaysianJust and caring societyMature and democratic societySustainable developmentFully competitive, dynamic, robust and resilient economy
- Achieve a fully developed nation status by 2020
Strategies:Strategies:Export-led growth and free market forcesHigh-tech and knowledge-intensiveAccelerated growth in manufacturing, services and agricultural sectors
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.17
-
Contribution of Factor of Production Higher contribution of TFP is expected to
sustain future growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1971-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
Labour Capital TFPSource: OPP3, EPU QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressorare needed to see this picture.18
-
Manufacturing and Services As Engines of Growth
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020
Agriculture Manufacturing Services
Source: EPU QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressorare needed to see this picture.19
-
GDP by Sector
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Services Mining RGDP
Source: MIER QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressorare needed to see this picture.20
-
Scenario Projections for 2006-2020Worst-case Baseline Best-case
Employment 2.5 2.7 3.0
Capital 4.5 6.1 6.4
TFP 0.8 1.7 2.6
Real GDP 4.2 5.8 7.0
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Source: MIER21
-
TAKE-AWAY MESSAGES FOR MYANMAR
Economic openness Realistic exchange rate Sound monetary policy Fiscal discipline Good governance Economic freedom Good infrastructure: physical & institutional
22
-
TAKEAWAY MESSAGES. Policy consistency and predictability Efficient civil service Integrity Transparency Accountability Investment in human capital Inclusive growth
23
-
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime and aPhoto - JPEG decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
24