MSP Metro Workforce Report May 24-30, 2020 The impacts of COVID-19 have reinforced an ongoing need for workers to fill critical jobs in each sector of the MSP metropolitan workforce. These impacts have also exposed historical trends related to stable earnings and turnover, top skills, and demographics such as race and ethnicity, which are a call to action as we work together to build an economy that works better for all.

RealTime Talent begins highlighting the critical needs of employers in the 7-County Minneapolis-Saint Paul Metro (MSP) by lifting up the top jobs, skills, and certifications advertised by employers,1 as well as the top locations that employers are advertising openings aligned with five of the region’s most critical sectors.2 This report focuses on jobs that require an Associate’s degree or less and includes an in-depth analysis of one occupation that is high-demand, high-opportunity, and/or high-growth. Given the disparity of the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, we offer these insights to guide the many people who will be seeking work and those who advise individuals seeking work.

Next, we dig into the needs of MSP employers for Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, including the current unemployment rates in these occupations, wages, and demographics of employment in this career.

Top New Jobs Posted in the Region by Volume, May 24-30, 2020 (AA/AS or less required)

Healthcare Information Technology Finance Government Manufacturing

30%

Personal Care Aides

Registered Nurses

Nursing Assistants

Licensed Practical Nurses

Home Health Aides

Critical Care Nurse

Medical Secretaries

Medical Assistants

28%

Web Developers

Computer User Support Specialists

Data Entry Keyers

Electronics Engineering Technicians

Network and Computer Systems Administrators

Computer Systems Analysts

Software Developers, Applications

54%

Insurance Sales Agents

Cashiers

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing

Clerks

Loan Interviewers and Clerks

Bill and Account Collectors

Purchasing Agents

Accountants

Insurance Underwriters

70%

Coaches and Scouts

Social and Human Service Assistants

Registered Nurses

Maintenance and Repair Workers

Medical Secretaries

Office Clerks, General

First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers

Cooks, Institution, and Cafeteria

32%

Laborers and Freight, Stock and Material

Movers

Industrial Machinery Mechanics

Electronics Engineering Technicians

Industrial Engineering Technicians

Packers and Packagers

Industrial Engineers

Chemical Technicians

Mechanical Drafters

Arrow indicates directional change from prior week. If job posting growth or decline was less than 1%, no trend is indicated.

Top Employers Advertising New Jobs in the Region by Volume, May 24-30, 2020 (AA/AS or less required)

Healthcare Information Technology Finance Government Manufacturing

The Mentor Network

Fairview Health Services

On Time Talent Solutions

Allina Health

Nomad Health

REM Hennepin, Inc.

Home Health Corporation

Home Instead

HealthEast Care System

Unitedhealth Group

Robert Half International

Kforce Professional Staffing, Inc.

Randstad

Accountemps

Tanson Corp

Excell

DEEGIT, INC.

On-Demand

Digital Intelligence Systems

United Natural Foods, Inc.

Robert Half International

United Natural Foods, Inc.

State Farm Insurance Agency

Accountemps

Symmetry Financial Group

U.S. Bank

Target Corporation

GPAC

Assurance

Cub Foods

South Washington County Schools

Hennepin County

Hennepin County Medical Center

Eastern Carver County Schools

Ramsey County

U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs

MN Department of Corrections

City of Chanhassen

City of St. Louis Park

City of Edina

FedEx

Amazon

Seek Careers/Staffing

Pro Staff

Cantel Medical Corp.

Aerotek

Post Holdings

3M Company

General Mills

Home Depot

Arrow indicates directional change from prior week. If job posting growth or decline was less than 1%, no trend is indicated.

322%

135%

96%

48%

28%

-14%

-14%

-21%

-35%

-41%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%

Personal Care Aide

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Materials Movers

Insurance Sales Agents

Heavy and Tractor-Trailor Truck Drivers

Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

Retail Salespersons

Customer Service Representatives

Office Clerks

Maintenance and Repair Workers

Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers

New Job Opening Growth or Decline for High-Volume Postings Requiring an AA or Less in the 7-County MSP Metro, May 24-30, 2020 (% change from prior year)

Top Cities New Jobs Posted in the Region by Volume, May 24-30, 2020 (AA/AS or less required)

Healthcare Information Technology Finance Government Manufacturing

Minneapolis

Saint Paul

Coon Rapids

Burnsville

Minnetonka

Eden Prairie

Maplewood

Stillwater

Shakopee

Saint Louis Park

Minneapolis

Eden Prairie

Saint Paul

Minnetonka

Richfield

Hopkins

Bloomington

Eagan

Plymouth

Shakopee

Minneapolis

Saint Paul

Hopkins

Bloomington

Eagan

Rogers

Prior Lake, MN

Richfield

Shakopee, MN

Minneapolis

Cottage Grove

Saint Paul

Minnetonka

Chanhassen

Chaska

Saint Louis Park

Edina

Roseville

Eagan

Saint Paul

Osseo

Minneapolis

Eden Prairie

Hopkins

Plymouth

Saint Paul Park

Newport

Rogers

Burnsville

Arrow indicates directional change from prior week. If job posting growth or decline was less than 1%, no trend is indicated.

119%

28%

4%

0%

0%

-12%

-13%

-18%

-23%

-37%

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%

Prior Lake

Shakopee

Brooklyn Park

Eden Prairie

Plymouth

Saint Paul

Minnetonka

Burnsville

Minneapolis

Bloomington

New Job Opening Growth or Decline in 7-County MSP Metro Cities with High-Volumes of Postings Requiring an AA or Less, May 24-30, 2020

(% change from prior year)

Top Essential Skills Required in New Jobs Posted in the Region by Volume, May 24-30, 2020 (AA/AS or less required)

Healthcare Information Technology Finance Government Manufacturing

Dedication

Compassion

Dependability

Communication

Flexibility

Communication

Troubleshooting

Design

Collaboration

Written Communications

Customer Service

Communication

Scheduling

Detail-oriented

Dedication

Scheduling

Supervision

Responsibility

Coordination

Monitoring

Scheduling

Dedication

Sorting

Responsibility

Bending

Arrow indicates directional change from prior week. If job posting growth or decline was less than 1%, no trend is indicated.

Top Certifications Required in New Jobs Posted in the Region by Volume, May 24-30, 2020 (AA/AS or less required)

Healthcare Information Technology Finance Government Manufacturing

Direct Support Professional

Certified Registered Nurse

Licensed Practical Nurse

Certified Practical Nurse, Long-term Care

Personal Care Attendant

ITIL Foundation Certification

Redux

Computer Service Technician

Microsoft Certified Systems Administrator

Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer

Property and Casualty Insurance

State Insurance License

Accounting (CPA)

Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System

Certified Payroll Professional

Certified Registered Nurse

Commercial Driver’s License

Public Health Nurse

OSHA Certification

Pediatric Advanced Life Support

American Society of Mechanical Engineers

Security Clearance

Powered Industrial Vehicle

Crane Operator

Commercial Driver’s License

Top Hard Skills Required for the Top Occupation in Each Sector by Volume of New Jobs Posted in the Region, May 24-30, 2020 (AA/AS or less required)

Healthcare

Personal Care Aides

Information Technology

Web Developer

Finance

Insurance Sales Agents

Government

Coaches and Scouts

Manufacturing

Laborers Administering Medication

COVID-19

Public Health

Nursing

Career Development

CSS

JavaScript

Java

jQuery

Microsoft .NET Framework

Direct Mailers

Quoting

Medicare

Contact Centers

Scripting languages

Strategy

Programming

Public Schools

Modeling

Inspecting

Medications

Hand truck

Shipping

Warehousing

Forklifts

Arrow indicates directional change from prior week. If job posting growth or decline was less than 1%, no trend is indicated.

1 SOURCE: All data in this section is from new jobs posted online in the 7-county Minneapolis-Saint Paul Metro between May 24-30, 2020. Data includes staffing agencies and represents deduplicated new job posts from all corporate websites and job boards. Trend comparison to a prior period refers to the week immediately prior. All data was gathered from TalentNeuron Recruit, www.wantedanalytics.com on June 7, 2020.

2 All sectors are defined as job families that are related by skills, competencies, and career pathways, with the exception of Government jobs. The Government sector is identified by city, county, regional, and state government employers.

Occupations in Focus: Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers Across all industries in the MSP Metro, stable turnover3 sat at about 10.9% as of 2018—and on average over the past 24 years.4 In in the Transportation and Warehousing Industry, which employs the largest share of Laborers and Materials Movers5 the stable turnover rate also reached 10.9% in 2018, a 20-year high for the industry.

Stable Turnover in Transportation and Warehousing Jobs the MSP Metro, Annual Averages

In the Transportation and Warehousing Industry, there is not enough data on Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) working in the industry to establish clear trends in stable turnover or separations disaggregated by race and ethnicity year-to-year. However, When comparing non-Hispanic White workers to Black and African American workers in this industry, 19.3% of Black or African American workers were starting or returning to new jobs in the industry in the first quarter of 2019, compared to 9.4% of White workers in the industry. Black and African American workers also have higher separation rates in the industry, at 18.2% of Black or African American workers leaving their jobs in the first quarter of 2019 compared to 8.4% of White workers leaving their jobs in that quarter. Of course, this includes all occupations within the industry and talent of all skill levels, experience levels, and tenure—as long as they were employed at a company for at least a full 4-quarter period.6,7

3 Stable turnover is defined as the rate at which stable jobs—positions held by the same employee throughout an entire year—begin and end. Stable turnover is calculated by summing the number of stable hires in the reference period and stable separations in the next period, then dividing by the average full-period employment. 4 U.S. Census Bureau. Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), 2018. Stable turnover is calculated by summing the number of stable hires in the reference quarter and stable separations in the next quarter, then dividing by the average full quarter employment. The 4 quarters are then averaged. 5 Occupation name shortened from Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Materials Movers. 6 Yearly average separations are the estimated number of workers whose job with a given employer ended in a given quarter. The quarters are averaged to account for seasonality. It is a useful measure of what types of workers are leaving their jobs, either voluntarily or involuntarily. 7 U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI). 7-County Minneapolis-Saint Paul Metropolitan Area. Race categories are for non-Hispanic individuals. Accessed at https://qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov/static/explore.html#x=0&g=0 NAICS 44-45

Transportation and Warehousing Industry Hiring, Separation, and Replacement Rate by Race and Ethnicity, MSP Metro, 2019Q1

In Transportation and Warehousing, White non-Hispanic workers saw a 60% increase in average monthly stable earnings8 from 1995-2017, from $2,854 to $4,558. Black and African American workers, however, only reached the 1995 White worker wages in 2016. As of 2017, non-Hispanic White workers in Transportation and Warehousing were making nearly 56% more than Black and African American workers in the industry.

Yearly Stable Earnings (Average Monthly) in the Transportation and Warehousing Industry, MSP Metro

8 Stable earnings are the wages of employees that worked at the same firm throughout a reference period—in this case, a full year.

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for Laborers and Material Movers was expected to decline, and the MSP Metro was forecast to have an excess of talent in this occupation. In fact, over the next five years, it was estimated that there would be 133 more individuals seeking work in this field than job opportunities available every year, for a total 5-year excess of talent of 665 workers.

For the short-term, demand for talent in these roles remains high due to shifting product pipelines and needs in the Manufacturing, Transportation, Warehousing, and related industries. Economists are continuing to assert that long-term forecasts will likely hold true once the pandemic subsides, and so effective workforce development programs will build out mindful career pathway development for individuals taking jobs today in Labor and Material Moving occupations. Destination occupations in demand and high shortage five years from now that could have related skill sets and knowledge, but would require additional education or training, include Logisticians, General and Operations Managers, and Management Analysts.

Top Occupations Expected to See Shortages or Excesses of Talent, 2019Q4 Baseline Forecasts

Potential Average Annual Gaps the Next 5 Years

Laborers and Material Movers (SOC 53-7062) manually move freight, stock, or other materials or perform other general labor. This occupation includes all manual laborers not elsewhere classified, but excludes “Material Moving Workers" (53-7011 through 53-7199) who use power equipment, “Construction Laborers" (47-2061), and "Helpers, Construction Trades” (47-3011 through 47-3019). Nationwide, 53.3% of people employed in these roles have a high school diploma or less.

Educational Attainment Profile of Laborers and Material Movers Employees Nationwide

Education and Training Requirements Typical Entry-Level Education: None Previous Work Experience: None Typical On-the-Job Training: Short-term on-the-job training

Source: JobsEQ®

Education and training requirements are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); educational attainment mix are regional data modeled by Chmura using Census educational attainment data projected to 2019Q4 along with source data from the BLS.

The currently employed population in these occupations is younger than most other roles in the metro, with 22.3% of workers currently employed as Laborers and Material Movers being under the age of 25. Well over half have a high school diploma or less, and another 21% have some college education but no degree. By ethnicity, 7.3% of workers are Hispanic, with most of these being White-Hispanic. While 80.6% of the working population in these occupations is white, 12.2% identify as Black or African American and 4% as Asian. The vast majority of workers in this occupation are male (80.1%).

Typically, new job postings for Laborers and Material Movers spike in June and October/November, signaling peak periods in online sales and delivery services. However, data on job postings for these positions in March, April, and May of 2020 are signaling a deviation from the typical seasonal hiring pattern for these roles, with April and May 2020 seeing 4-year highs in deduplicated job postings for Laborers and Material Movers. Across positions advertised on any job board in the region, the volume of deduplicated available9 Laborer and Material Mover positions were up by 61% in the period from June 2019-May 2020 compared to the prior 12-month period, hitting 6,246 unique positions advertised.

9 Available jobs means the position was active on a website during the specified time frame, and may have been posted earlier than the time frame.

Laborer and Material Mover Jobs Newly Posted in the MSP Metro, With Detail by County, 2016-2020

Employers Advertising Laborer and Material Mover Positions Jan-May 2020

• FedEx Ground • Amazon • Home Depot • Menards • Aerotek • Kelly Services • Express Employment Professionals • Capstone Logistics • Shipt • Lowe’s

Top Technical & Hard Skills in Demand for Laborer and Material Mover Positions Jan-May 2020

Top Essential Skills in Demand for Laborer and Material Mover Positions Jan-May 2020

• Sorting • Carrying • Hand Trucks • Warehousing • Forklifts

• Dedication • Responsibility • Flexibility • Customer Service • Detail-Oriented

NOTE: Only Laborers and Material Movers occupations advertised in the 7-county MSP Metro between January 1, 2020 and May 31, 2020

Other Laborers and Material Movers Market Insights

As of 2019Q4, total employment for Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers (SOC 53-7062) in the Twin Cities 7-County Metro was 30,607. Over the past three years, this occupation added 2,275 jobs in the region and is expected to increase by 969 jobs over the next seven years, or at an annual average rate of 0.4%. There were about 1,643 people unemployed with prior work experience in these occupations and potentially seeking reemployment as a Laborer or Material Mover. Looking at the broader occupation category of all Material Moving Workers (SOC 537) which is broader and more inclusive, about 48,273 were employed in the region as of the last quarter of 2019 and 2,658 people were unemployed (5.7% occupational unemployment). In a typical year, about 2,483 people can be expected to exit Material Moving Worker occupations. However, between March 15 and June 1, 2020, nearly 4,000 Material Moving Workers applied for unemployment insurance out of 750,526 total applications in the region.10 Based on historic trends and this volume of unemployment applicants, current occupational unemployment can be estimated at approximately 11% as a conservative estimate.

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers (SOC 53-7062) in Twin Cities 7-County Metro, 2019Q41 Current 3-Year History 7-Year Forecast

Empl Avg Ann Wages2 LQ Unempl

Unempl Rate

Online Job Ads3

Empl Change Ann %

Total Demand Exits Transfers

Empl Growth

Ann % Growth

30,607 $36,400 0.87 1,643 5.6% 898 2,275 2.6% 30,655 10,914 18,772 969 0.4% Source: JobsEQ® Data as of 2019Q4 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Data based on a four-quarter moving average unless noted otherwise. 2. Wage data are as of 2018 and represent the average for all Covered Employment 3. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in the selected region; data represents a sampling rather than the complete universe of postings. Ads lacking zip code information but designating a place (city, town, etc.) may be assigned to the zip code with greatest employment in that place for queries in this analytic. Due to alternative county-assignment algorithms, ad counts in this analytic may not match that shown in RTI (nor in the popup window ad list).

10 MN DEED, Unemployment Insurance Statistics for 3/15/20-6/1/20. Accessed on 6/6/2020 at https://mn.gov/deed/data/data-tools/unemployment-insurance-statistics/

Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2019Q2, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2019Q4. Wages by occupation are as of 2018 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Occupation unemployment figures are imputed by Chmura.

The majority of employed Applications Software Developers in the MSP Metro work in the first and second ring suburbs, especially in the zip codes of suburban Hennepin County. However, despite workplaces being concentrated on the west side of the metro, more workers in this occupation actually live on the east side of the metro.

Laborers and Material Movers by Place of Work, 2019Q4

Top ZCTAs by Place of Work for Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand, 2019Q4

Region Employment ZCTA 55413 1,344 ZCTA 55450 1,135 ZCTA 55402 800 ZCTA 55344 799 ZCTA 55441 768 ZCTA 55425 767 ZCTA 55123 736 ZCTA 55369 681 ZCTA 55121 623 ZCTA 55379 602

Laborers and Material Movers by Place of Residence, 2019Q4

Top ZCTAs by Place of Residence for Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand, 2019Q4

Region Employment ZCTA 55379 574 ZCTA 55124 534 ZCTA 55106 515 ZCTA 55337 493 ZCTA 55407 478 ZCTA 55303 460 ZCTA 55423 452 ZCTA 55044 (Dakota County, MN portion) 446 ZCTA 55304 432 ZCTA 55104 417

The following table illustrates the industries in the Twin Cities 7-County Metro which most employ Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand. The single industry most employing this occupation in the region is Employment Services, NAICS 5613. This industry employs 6,965 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand—employment which is expected to increase by 209 jobs over the next ten years; furthermore, 9,583 additional new workers in this occupation will be needed for this industry due to separation demand, that is, to replace workers in this occupation and industry that retire or move into a different occupation.

Top Industry Distribution for Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand (53-7062) in Twin Cities 7-County Metro

Current 10-Year Demand NAICS Code Industry Title

% of Occ Empl Empl Exits Transfers

Empl Growth

Total Demand

5613 Employment Services 22.8% 6,965 3,523 6,060 209 9,792 4921 Couriers and Express Delivery Services 11.7% 3,595 1,794 3,085 6 4,885 4931 Warehousing and Storage 7.7% 2,372 1,317 2,266 575 4,158 4811 Scheduled Air Transportation 3.1% 949 483 831 42 1,357 4841 General Freight Trucking 2.5% 759 385 662 26 1,073 4244 Grocery and Related Product Merchant Wholesalers 2.2% 680 342 589 15 947 4441 Building Material and Supplies Dealers 1.8% 550 282 485 30 796

4236 Household Appliances and Electrical and Electronic Goods Merchant Wholesalers 1.6% 479 241 415 9 665

4523 General Merchandise Stores, including Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters 1.4% 421 210 362 2 574

4238 Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers 1.4% 418 208 357 -4 561

5511 Management of Companies and Enterprises 1.4% 415 212 365 23 600 4239 Miscellaneous Durable Goods Merchant Wholesalers 1.3% 411 207 356 8 571

4234 Professional and Commercial Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers 1.3% 388 190 327 -13 504

4237 Hardware, and Plumbing and Heating Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers 1.3% 383 192 330 4 526

4541 Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses 1.2% 379 230 396 183 809 4522 Department Stores 1.2% 355 177 304 -1 480

4233 Lumber and Other Construction Materials Merchant Wholesalers 1.1% 336 170 292 8 470

4249 Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods Merchant Wholesalers 1.1% 322 156 269 -17 408 3391 Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing 1.0% 306 156 268 13 436 5619 Other Support Services 0.9% 290 148 255 14 417

All Others 32.1% 9,835 4,964 8,538 262 13,764

The average (mean) annual wage for Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand was $36,400 in the Twin Cities 7-County Metro as of 2018. For the same year, average entry level wages were approximately $25,000 compared to an average of $42,100 for experienced workers.

Occupation wages (mean, median, and percentiles) are as of 2018 provided by the BLS, modified and imputed by Chmura where necessary. Entry-level and experienced wages are derived from these source data, computed by Chmura.

Report released on 6/9/2020 by RealTime Talent on the INSIGHTS blog at www.realtimetalent.org. All data in the first section of this report is from TalentNeuron Recruit, accessed 6/7/2020 at www.wantedanalytics.com. Data from the Occupations in Focus section of this report is from TalentNeuron (job postings) and Jobs EQ, a tool of Chmura Economics, accessed 6/4/2020 unless otherwise noted. Contact Erin Olson, Research Strategist at erin@realtimetalentmn.org with any questions or inquiries.