mt2_171114

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T I M E S A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION

VOL. XXIV No. 2 Monday, 17 – 23 November 2014 Pages 20 Rs.15

Consolidation underway By Sanjay R. Bhatia

The domestic markets consolidated amidst a range bound trend on the benchmark indices. However, stock specific activity continued.

The FIIs remained net buyers in the cash segment but were net sellers in the derivatives segment and were seen hedging their long positions. The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net sellers during this week and were seen booking profits at higher levels. The breadth of the market remained neutral amidst lower volumes. The US markets continued to touch historic highs on the back of good earnings. However, Chinese data continued to paint a weak picture. The Chinese economy lost further momentum in October 2014 as factory growth dipped and investment growth hit a near 13-year low. This weak data weighed on crude oil prices, which continued to soften and touched a 4-year low.

On the domestic front, the WPI eased further to 1.77% in October from 2.38% in September 2014. Moreover, the CPI declined and the September 2014 IIP data displayed positive growth.

Technically, the prevailing positive technical conditions helped the markets witness buying support at lower levels. The KST and RSI are both placed above their respective averages on the daily and weekly charts. Further, the MACD is placed above its average on the daily charts and the Stochastic is placed above its averages on the weekly charts. The Nifty is placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Further, the Nifty’s 50-day SMA and 100-day SMA are placed above the Nifty’s 200-day SMA, which is known as the ‘Golden Cross’ breakout. These positive technical conditions would lead to regular buying support especially at lower levels.

However, the prevailing negative technical conditions still hold good and would weigh on the market sentiment at higher levels. The MACD is placed below its average on the weekly charts. Further, the Stochastic is placed below its average on the daily charts. Moreover, the Stochastic and RSI are placed in the overbought zone on the weekly charts. The RSI is also placed above its average on the daily charts. These negative technical conditions would lead to intermediate bouts of profit booking and selling pressure especially at higher levels.

The +DI line is placed above the ADX line and –DI line on the daily charts and is also placed above the 33 level. But it has also come off its recent

http://www.reuters.com/finance/economy?lc=int_mb_1001


highs indicating that buyers are booking profits regularly.

The markets would continue to witness consolidation due to overbought conditions. The markets would witness intermediate bouts of profit booking and selling pressure at higher levels. Now it is important that the markets witness follow-up buying support at higher levels for a sustainable rally to unfold. If the Nifty continues to sustain above the 8250 level, then it could test the 8500 level. The markets are likely to witness stock specific activity. Any positive triggers like rate cuts or fresh reforms in the winter session of Parliament would help the markets move higher. In the meanwhile, the markets would continue to take cues from the Dollar Index, global markets and crude oil prices.

Technically, on the upside the BSE Sensex faces resistance at the 28500, 29000 and 30000 and seeks support at the 27600, 27355, 27112 and 26464 levels. The support levels for the Nifty are placed at 8350, 8180, 8000 and 7748 while it faces a resistance at the 8400 and 8500 and 8550 levels.

Traders and speculators could book profit in Aditya Birla Nuvo as the target price of Rs.1800 is achieved. Traders & speculators could buy Coal India above Rs.359 with a stop loss of Rs.351 and price target Rs.375.

The macro view By Fakhri H. Sabuwala

The country's polity may be on a new high.

The state assembly elections are considered to be a great consolidating factor for the BJP and in turn for a strong Centre to marginalise the regional forces. The Union Cabinet expansion last Sunday before last was a step in that direction. Appointing key technocrats along with some prominent state level representatives, an Olympian medalist and a playback singer in may be a compulsive exercise compromising BJP’s slogan ‘MINIMUM government and MAXIMUM governance’. The absence of NDA partner Shiv Sena or the Congress opposition and other political bigwigs at this swearing-in ceremony may well have raised eyebrows. The whole move was carved out by BJP heavyweights Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.

In this developing scenario, it would be pertinent to look at some macro consolidations shaping the markets. Let us begin our review and peep into the future by noting the market capitalisation. The market cap a year back was around Rs.66 lakh crore. It rose to Rs.76 lakh crore the day the exit poll of the General Election was out. On 8 November 2014, it touched Rs.96 lakh crore, which is nearly 50% rise over the last 12 months. Viewed in the backdrop of a declining number of market intermediaries (sub-brokers) is indeed a startling unpleasant development.

From a count of 83000 in 2007, it fell to 53000 in 2013 and to 48000 in 2014. The higher trading volumes on Dalal Street, the rising interest in equity and the declining numbers of intermediaries means consolidation of the business in the hands of few top brokers and greater dependence on technology rather than manual interaction like the yesteryears.

It is also worth noting that more than half the business is in the hands of 15 top brokers and the remaining half shared between 350 BSE and NSE members and their sub-brokers.

It is also worth noting that the investors have become tech savvy over time and yearn for an experience in trading and related sevices. From the computerised BOLT or NEAT trading some two decades back, the time has come for trading online. This gave way to the log on to the broker's website to trade on, which then gave way to mobile trading through ‘Apps’. All these upgrades have been successful and today Apps rule the world and the client has full information and control on his trading, investments, banking, demat etc. at his finger tips. The experience of such modern amenities has worked in growing the market. Experience helped create such a large following of ‘Whatsapp’ and it is this unique experience that has won the marketing game at Dalal Street too.

The Sensex has broken through the 28K level for the first time but may find the momentum cooling off in the wake of the FM's statement that rushing into the big bang reforms agenda may have a political backlash that may derail or delay the government's priority agenda. Having surged nearly 2000 Sensex points over the last three weeks, the fluid political situation with starined ties within the ruling allies may keep the upside under check. However, the thirst for owning India is on the rise amongst the foreign investors, which could witness some huge FII inflows in the coming six weeks before the end of calendar 2014. The delicate political situation developing in Maharashtra and the impact of the ensuing elections in Jharkhand, Delhi and Jammu & Kashmir will be crucial in late December 2014 or early January 2015.

The market has high hopes on Jayant Sinha joining the government in NaMo’s first ministry expansion. Son of a former Union Finance Minister, Yashwant Sinha, he has worked with Narendra Modi in an advisory capacity is the man responsible for suggesting unique client code and Saral I.T. return forms in yesteryears. An IIT graduate and a Harvard

BAZAR.COM


MBA, he has come far in the field of finance. Husband of Punita Sinha, the erstwhile FII fund manager and a founder member and managing partner of Pacific Paradigm Advisory, the market feels reassured that somebody who understands the nitty gritty of the market is in charge.

Suresh Prabhu, another confidant of NaMo, is playing a key role in developing the Railways, which is under his direct control but sure to impact other broad economic policies too. In an interview to a pink paper prior to his appointment as a cabinet minister, Prabhu said the government should get over 100 projects worth Rs.7 lakh crore going and usher in a new policy paradigm to boost infrastructure investment to $10 trillion (Rs.600 lakh crore) in three decades.

So this week, let’s just concentrate on the macro view, which will shape India's destiny in coming months and charter the course of the Sensex and the Nifty in flight.

Market moves higher By Hitendra Vasudeo

Last week, the BSE Sensex opened at 27919.44 attained a low at 27764.75 and moved to a high of 28126.48 before it closed the week at 28046.66 and thereby showed a net rise of 178 points on a week-to-week basis.

We had a Spinning Top formation two weeks back but the low of the spinning top was not violated. The low is at 27739.56 and the low registered last week was 27764. The close was higher at 28046.

The Sensex is expected to test the higher range of 28193-28555 during the week while support may be seen at 27979-27832-27700.

The effect of the breakout that was seen above 27354 in the last three weeks is likely to rally higher with intra-day or intra-week volatility.

A fall and close below 27700 can show a correction. In that case, expect a fall to 27354 or below. The earlier breakout point can offer support.

Security Name Close on

14/11/14 6 months from now

12 months from now

BSE SENSEX 28047 29440 36832

BSE BANKEX 20119 21407 29008

BSE MIDCAP 10155 11034 14917

BSE SMALLCAP 11217 12516 17704

CNX NIFTY 8390 8806 11053

CNX BANK INDEX 17670 18752 25417

BSE Mid-Cap Index

BSE Mid Cap index to rally to 10600 in the near-term and weakness will be below 9990. The Mid Cap index is expected to move higher.

BSE Small Cap Index

Expect the near-term rise to 11352. Further rally can happen above 11400 closing.

BSE Bankex

A rally is likely to continue with volatility to 25000 in weeks to come. Support will be at 19400-18600.

Strategy for the week

Traders long and holding stocks can keep the Sensex stop loss at 27700.

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with whatever

TRADING ON TECHNICALS


low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to

book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to

Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.

Scrips

Last Close

Level 1

Level 2

Center Point

Level 3

Level 4

Relative Strength

Weekly Reversal

Value

Up Trend Date

Stop Loss Buy Price Buy Price Book Profit

Book Profit

MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA 3337.00 3270.0 3272.0 3335.0 3400.0 3528.0 79.6 3283.3 23-10-14

ZEE ENTERTAINMENT 375.75 364.1 367.0 372.9 381.7 396.4 76.7 357.7 22-08-14

EICHER MOTORS 14002.00 12630.0 13061.3 13570.7 14511.3 15961.3 75.2 12839.0 23-10-14

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES 1625.00 1507.0 1532.0 1600.0 1693.0 1854.0 71.7 1531.5 23-10-14

J K CEMENT 658.75 615.5 627.2 647.1 678.7 730.2 70.8 613.8 17-10-14

EXIT LIST

Scrip Last

Close Sell

Price Sell

Price Sell

Price Stop Loss

Target 1

Target 2

BAJAJ FINSE 1033.90 1043.01 1050.07 1057.14 1080.00 923.3 -

BALKRISHNA INDUSTRIE 691.00 744.38 765.50 786.62 855.00 386.4 -

BALMER LAWRIE & CO. 563.70 589.26 601.08 612.89 651.15 389.0 -

BIRLA CORPORATION 481.45 494.44 504.48 514.51 547.00 324.3 -

CLARIANT CHEMICALS 873.00 914.10 930.50 946.90 1000.00 636.1 -

DIVI'S LABORATORIES 1719.00 1754.82 1777.00 1799.18 1871.00 1378.8 -

MAGMA FINCORP 108.70 115.38 117.97 120.57 128.95 71.5 -

SUN PHARMA ADVAN. RE 190.55 192.74 194.20 195.66 200.40 167.9 -

SUPREME INDUSTRIES 583.35 591.42 595.35 599.28 612.00 524.8 -

BUY LIST

Scrip Last

Close Buy Price

Buy Price

Buy Price

Stop Loss

Target 1

Target 2

BANK OF BARODA 1015.00 986.18 974.50 962.82 925.00 1085.2 1184.2

CESC 757.00 725.04 713.00 700.96 662.00 827.0 929.0

COLGATE-PALMOLIVE (I 1980.00 1910.57 1867.50 1824.43 1685.00 2275.6 2640.6

EROS INTERN. MEDIA 320.30 295.42 285.35 275.28 242.70 380.7 466.0

GUJARAT STATE PETRON 103.75 101.06 100.00 98.94 95.50 110.1 119.1

ICICI BANK 1695.00 1675.65 1663.50 1651.35 1612.00 1778.7 1881.7

LIC HOUSING FINANCE 420.55 399.74 391.65 383.56 357.35 468.3 536.9

NAGARJUNA CONSTRUCTI 61.30 58.70 57.53 56.35 52.55 68.7 78.6

SHRIRAM TRANSPORT FI 1048.00 1015.19 999.50 983.81 933.00 1148.2 1281.2

THERMAX 1049.00 1000.62 979.50 958.38 890.00 1179.6 1358.6

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with

whatever high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below

then look to cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will

change from Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.

Scrips

Last Close

Level 1

Level 2

Center Point

Level 3

Level 4

Relative Strength

Weekly Reversal

Value

Down Trend Date

Cover Short

Cover Short

Sell Price

Sell Price

Stop loss

BAJAJ ELECTRICALS 233.85 149.7 212.6 254.3 275.5 296.0 34.43 273.15 14-11-14

MCLEOD RUSSEL (I) 242.65 218.4 236.4 248.2 254.4 260.0 36.79 250.09 14-11-14

SUN TV NETWORK 317.05 290.9 310.2 322.7 329.5 335.2 39.16 320.01 14-11-14

PIPAVAV DEFENCE & OF 38.45 34.8 37.4 39.0 40.1 40.7 39.97 39.31 31-10-14

ARVIND REMEDIES 36.75 18.5 31.5 39.2 44.5 46.9 40.11 43.21 14-11-14


PUNTER'S PICKS

Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery

based trade for a possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.

Scrips BSE Code

Last Close

Buy Price Buy On

Rise Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2

Risk Reward

EURO GOLD JEWELLERY 531082 102.90 93.10 103.00 88.10 112.2 127.1 0.63

PVR 532689 736.05 716.50 740.00 697.00 766.6 809.6 0.78

KELTECH ENERGIES 506528 813.00 799.00 839.00 730.00 906.4 1015.4 1.12

MAHINDRA COMPOSITIES 524138 180.50 170.00 188.00 163.05 203.4 228.4 1.31

ZYLOG SYSTEM 532883 8.64 8.50 9.00 7.81 9.7 10.9 1.32

Alibaba in China clocked sales of over $7.7 billion in a single day – a landmark event of e-com and e-tailing? Get inspired by this and pay attention to the likes of Info Edge. Dalal Street today is busy discovering the new Alibaba of e-com and e-tailing and look for big ticket IPOs coming from this segment.

Jayant Sinha, the new Minister of State for Finance, former investment banker and husband of ex-foreign fund manager, Punita Sinha. At last, somebody who understands the bhhavnaa aspect in the market!

Linclon Pharma is a hidden gem in the pharma sector and can multiply many times from current levels.

Swiss Glasscoat is another multi-bagger with consistent dividend paying record. The scrip is headed for the Rs.200 mark.

Terruzzi Fercalx, a MNC has seen good accumulation by people in the know.

Axiscades is another Dynamatic Technologies in the making. Many positive developments happening in the company.

Rural Electrification Corporation has seen good amount of buying and the stock is likely to touch the Rs.350 mark before this expiry.

After Ranbaxy, Biocon is a takeover candidate. The stock is being accumulated by knowledgeable people for the past two months.

Heavy investment buying is reported in J.K Tyres. With a likely FY15 EPS of Rs.75, the share is poised to touch Rs.750 mark.

Kovai Medical is all set to post an EPS of over Rs.40 in FY15. The share is poised to touch the Rs.700 mark.

Heavy investment buying is seen in the MNC counters of Hella India and Morganite Crucible. The shares are expected to rise over 20% in the coming sessions.

Some HNIs have bought a large chunk of Jindal Saw shares. The share is poised to touch the Rs.150 mark in the short-term.

Sudar Industries, manufacturer of textile garments and pharma chemicals, has posted standalone Q2FY15 EPS of Rs.5.5 and Rs.10 in H1FY15. Its FY14 EPS was Rs.20. The share is expected to touch the three figure mark as this diversified company with a turnover of about Rs.1200 crore is expected to clock an EPS of over Rs.25 in FY15.

Usher Agro (June-end) has posted Q1FY15 EPS of Rs.4.6. Based on the completed expansion and ongoing capex, this agro based major is expected to clock an EPS of Rs.22 as against Rs.17.5 in FY14.The share is heading towards the Rs.100 mark.

Aarti Drugs has posted Q2FY15 EPS of Rs.15 and H1FY15 EPS of Rs.30. Based on this, an FY15 EPS of over Rs.65 can be anticipated. The share is also a strong bonus candidate and is expected to touch Rs.1000.

Man Infraconstruction Ltd. Code: 533169 Last Close: Rs. 25.05

By Sanjiv K. Pednekar

Man Infraconstruction Ltd. (MIL) is a well-established name in the field of residential, infrastructure, commercial and industrial premises in India. From residential housing to township including infrastructural facilities to high rise buildings, the company has developed a wide expertise and strengths in the sector of mass housing.

TOWER TALK

BEST BET


In the road infrastructure sector, it undertakes construction of roads that includes earthwork, paving, sewerage, storm water drainage, electrification, landscaping and much more.

MIL has core competence in constructing Container Terminals (Ports) and Container Freight Stations (CFS) facilities for international ports in India. Reclaiming land from the sea to facilitate construction of berths for ships to dock, construction of concrete and asphalt roads, rail works, concrete paving work, fire fighting systems, warehouses and workshops, post operations and custom space administrative office building - all this and much more goes in to developing ports and harbours. MILs prestigious clients include Adani Port, Airtel, Pipavav Port, Century Ply, Everest Industries, Godfrey Phillips, Praj Inds, Tata Group, Kohinoor etc.

The company has an equity of Rs.49.50 crore supported by huge reserves of Rs.539.03 crore in FY14 leading to a book value of Rs.23.78 on its Rs.2 paid-up share.

Its FY14 EPS was Rs.1.15, which may rise to about Rs.3.50 in FY15.

The company has consistently declared dividend between 14% to 45% for the last 7 years.

Promoters hold 68.66% equity stake, FIIs hold 0.95%, financial institutions hold 3.51%, NRIs hold 14.36% and the investing public holds 7.07%.

The company has a market capitalization of around Rs.620 crore as on 14-11-2014.

The company has consistently declared growth-oriented financial performance over the last 5 years. Taking into consideration the recession in the sector, its FY14 results are quite reasonable. Its turnover declined to Rs.267.13 crore from Rs.379.41 crore in FY13. Gross profit, too, declined proportionately to Rs.51.44 crore from Rs.75.49 crore. After providing for lower depreciation of Rs.10.09 crore as against Rs.15.20 crore in FY13 and lower taxation provision at Rs.12.80 crore from Rs.16.71 crore in FY13, net profit declined to Rs.28.55 crore from Rs.43.58 crore in the previous year. The EPS declined to Rs.1.15 from Rs.1.76 in FY13 and it paid a dividend of 14% as against 23% in FY13.

While FY14 working was under pressure, it has declared a highly encouraging performance for Q2FY15 as it recorded net profit of Rs.21.34 crore as against Rs.6.05 crore in Q2FY14 even though the total income from operations was lower at Rs.52.21 crore in Q2FY15 as against Rs.60.34 in Q2FY14.

At the half-yearly level, while total income was lower at Rs.118.56 crore from Rs.126.73 crore in H1FY14, net profit zoomed to Rs.40.48 crore in H1FY15 from Rs.14.73 crore in H1FY14.

India is heavily focused on the infrastructure development since the turn of the century and the sector has contributed to the country’s reputation as one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The Indian government has played a significant role in the sector’s growth. The value of the total road and bridge infrastructure in India is likely to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4% over the next 5 years.

The country’s road and bridges infrastructure is projected to touch US $19.2 billion by 2017. Being a well-established player in the sector MIL has a bright future ahead.

Currently, the Man Infraconstruction share trades at Rs.25. Its 52-week high/low is Rs.38/17. After touching a 52-week low of Rs.17 it moved up sharply to touch a high of 38. Profit

Coming soon…

7th edition of ‘Beat the Street 9’

Review of issue dated 6th June 2014

Stocks Recom. at (Rs.) High (Rs.) Gain %

Bharti Airtel 342.5 (ABP) 420 22.62%

TATA Steel 525 (ABP) 574 9.33%

NMDC 177.5 (ABP) 196 10.42%

Aditya Birla Nuvo 1347 (ABP) 1745 29.54%

LIC Housing 313.5 (ABP) 386 23.12%

Adani Power 58 (ABP) 68.5 18.10%

Kalyani Steel 97 179 84.53%

Sonata Software 65 147 126.15%

Ambika Cotton 343 579 68.80%

Review of issue dated 1st September 2014

Stocks Recom. at (Rs.) High (Rs.) Gain %

Bharti Airtel 370 420 13.51%

TATA Chemicals 385 421 9.42%

OIL India 615 669 8.78%

ICICI Bank 1545 (ABP) 1693 9.57%

Godavari Power 155 186 20%

JBF Industries 135 166.5 23.33%

TV Today 200 259 29.5%

Sonata Software 107 147 37.38%

Mahindra Life 530 (ABP) 550 3.77%

Now the 7

th edition of ‘Beat the Street 9’ will be released

in the first week of December 2014.

So, if you want to get multi-bagger ideas like the past editions, then don’t waste time and subscribe to ‘Beat

the Street 9’ quarterly newsletter today!

We are bullish on the Indian equity market for the long-term and believe this is the golden time for investing.

Subscription Rate: 1 Quarter: Rs.3500, 2 Quarters: Rs.6500, 3 Quarters: Rs.9000, 1 Year: Rs.11000

Contact Money Times on 022-22616970 or [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


booking at higher levels brought it down to around Rs.21 level. Now it is consolidating between Rs.21-25. Investors are, therefore, advised to accumulate this share at every decline in this range. At a breakout above Rs.27, it could recover to its recent high of Rs.38 within 4 months. The average industry price earning (P/E) ratio is 21. Assuming an EPS of Rs.3.50 in FY15, it has the potential to hit Rs.50 within 2 years.

CCL Products (India) Ltd.: Brewing profits By Devdas Mogili

CCL Products (India) Ltd., formerly known as Continental Coffee Ltd., is a Duggirala, Guntur District, in Andhra Pradesh based company established in 1961. Mr. C. Rajendra Prasad is the chairman and managing director of the company.

The company manufactures Coffee and Coffee related products and started commercial production of coffee in April 1995 with a capacity of 3600 TPA. Its plant is at Somajiguda in Hyderabad.

The company came out with a public issue in June 1995. In 1998-99, it divested its shares in Continental Coffee industries (UK) PLC, a joint venture company in the UK.

Subsidiaries: Its subsidiaries include Continental Coffee Private Ltd. which is a wholly- owned subsidiary while Ngon Coffee Company Ltd. is its step-down subsidiary in Vietnam. The other subsidiaries are Jayanti Pte Ltd, Singapore, and Grandsaugreen SA and Les Verrieres.

Performance: The company has won the `Second Best Exporter` award from the Vishakapatnam Export Processing Zone (VEPZ) among 100% EOUs in Andhra Pradesh & Yanam for the excellent Export performance for 2000-01.

CCL products recorded total income of Rs.716.82 crore with net profit of Rs.64.42 crore registering an EPS of Rs.4.84 for 2013-14.

Financial Highlights: (Rs in lakh)

Particulars Q2FY15 Q2FY14 H1FY15 H1FY14 FY14

Total Income 24724.29 16609.27 42285.80 30169.89 71682.15 Total Expenses 20576.16 13885.18 35211.57 25120.81 60283.04 Other Income 74.40 79.91 159.94 98.65 263.54 Finance Costs 329.43 426.14 752.24 810.56 1705.83 Tax Expenses 1279.59 711.96 1847.38 1398.09 3514.99 Net Profit 2613.51 1665.90 4634.55 2939.08 6441.83 Equity (FV:Rs.2) 2660.56 2660.56 2660.56 2660.56 2660.56 Reserves - - - - 32618.48 EPS (Rs) 1.96 1.25 3.48 2.21 4.84

Latest Results: The company’s consolidated sales jumped 48.86% to Rs.247.24 crore in Q2FY15 from Rs.166.09 crore in Q2FY14. Net profit soared 56.90% to Rs.26.14 crore in Q2FY15 from Rs.16.66 crore in Q2FY14. It thus recorded Q2FY15 EPS of Rs.1.96 as against Q2FY14 EPS of Rs.1.25. In the current first half (H1FY15), the EPS stood at Rs.3.48 as against Rs.2.21 in H1FY14.

Financials: CCL Products has an equity base of Rs.26.51 crore supported by reserves of Rs.326.18 crore leading to a share book value of Rs.26.52 (FV: Rs.2). It has a debt:equity ratio of 0.94 with RoCE of 19.04% and RoNW of 20.41%.

Share Profile: The company’s share with a face value of Rs.2 is listed on the NSE and the BSE under the B group and hit a 52-week high/low of Rs.140.50/Rs.26.30. At its current market price of Rs.133.70, the company has a market capitalization of Rs.1,778.58 crore.

Dividends: The company has been paying dividends as shown here: FY14 - 60%, FY13 - 50%, FY12 - 50%, FY11 - 20%, FY10 - 15%, FY09 - 10%, FY08 - 50%.

Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 44.54% equity in the company while the balance 55.46% is held by non-corporate promoters, institutions, mutual funds and the investing public. Among funds, Reliance Mutual Fund and Tata Mutual Fund have included the company’s share in their various schemes.

Prospects: Instant coffee has been on the market for many decades because of its convenience. Soluble coffee consumption accounts for over 20% of global coffee consumption. The instant coffee market has potential to be transformed away from traditional small glass jars and tins. Liquid coffee also makes it convenient to put in retail locations with ease of use.

STOCK ANALYSIS


The company has a long standing presence in global markets in the traditional Spray-Dried Instant Coffee segment and has also made a successful entry in the Freeze- Dried Coffee segment. Now, it is focusing on the domestic market.

The company’s endeavors through its Quality Control Division to enhance the quality of its products by a careful mix of various blends and essence and offer them at competitive prices have started yielding results. Efforts to achieve the right mix of raw-materials have been fruitful in achieving the best quality product at the most competitive price. Today, the company offers more than 70 varieties and blends of coffee to its customers. Further, the expanded capacity will boost sales and profitability.

China has now emerged into a coffee drinking country from the traditional tea drinking nation it was. According to the Euro monitor analyst, China now ranks as the fourth-largest global market for RTD coffee in terms of volume, and fifth in terms of value. This growth is largely a result of the attributes it shares with instant coffee, convenience and a malleable flavour profile.

Vietnam’s instant coffee market is expected to continue to grow steadily in coming years due to a number of market trends. The growth of instant coffee stemmed from the rising demand among adolescent consumers, who seek convenient and time saving methods for consuming hot drinks in tune with their busy lifestyle.

Modern times have witnessed evolution of coffee drinking from an everyday habit to a healthy lifestyle choice. Coffee has gained the status of being the most preferred beverage worldwide and is the second most traded commodity in the world. Consumption of instant coffee is more predominant in the East, West and Northern regions of India. The instant coffee sector outlook is bright as consumers increasingly value instant coffee’s simplicity of preparation.

Its presence in Vietnam helps CCL Products to cater to the coffee needs of ASEAN countries and it is in close proximity to South-East Asian nations, Japan, Korea, China etc. Most of these countries have granted Vietnam the status of the most favoured nation with reduced or NIL duty structures in addition to huge savings on logistics.

Conclusion: CCL Products has made a successful entry in the retail market with its premium brands. The huge potential for soluble coffee in the domestic market made the company concentrate on domestic sales both in the private label segment and through its established brands. Soluble coffee consumption in India is expected to witness a growth of 3.9% over the next 5 years and retail coffee sales are expected to reach Rs.3800 crore by 2017.

At its current market price of Rs.133.70 (FV:Rs.2), the CCL Products share price discounts less than 28 times its FY14 EPS of Rs.4.84. Although this discounting may appear steep, considering the high realizations in coffee and coffee products in global markets and the likely boost in the top-line and bottom-line of its Vietnamese operations, the current discounting appears quite reasonable. Considering its encouraging performance, regular payouts, high realizations for coffee products and bright prospects going ahead, the share is a good addition on declines for brewing profits in the medium-to-long-term.

Bulls lead equity markets By Devendra A. Singh

The BSE Sensex (30-share index) settled at 28,046.66 surging 178.03 points and the CNX Nifty closed at 8,389.90 rising 52.90 points for the week ended Friday, 14 November 2014.

The equity markets settled positively to touch record highs last week led by the recent reform measures announced by the government like declining inflation, cooling crude oil prices, rising investments in domestic markets and buying by FIIs, which boosted the market sentiment. The key indices gained in 4 out of the 5 trading sessions last week.

Direct investments by Indian firms abroad declined by a marginal 2% to $2.67 billion in October 2014 from $2.74 billion in October 2013. In September 2014, Indian companies had invested $3.02 billion in overseas markets.

“September 2014 imports surged 450% to $3.75 billion. Demand for the fourth quarter as a whole is expected to be healthy however, the September month surge in imports is unlikely to be replicated,” WGC added.

Struggling with a high trade deficit, India raised its gold import duty to a record 10% last year and made it mandatory to export a fifth of all bullion imports.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in its latest ‘Economic Outlook’ revised its forecast downwards and projected a 5.4% GDP growth for the Indian economy this year as global recovery continues at a modest pace. Earlier in September 2014, the agency had projected a growth rate of 5.7% for India.

MARKET REVIEW


According to the advanced G20 release in the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook report, growth will strengthen in India as investment picks up from a 5.4% rate in 2014 to 6.4% in 2015 and 6.6% in 2016.

The Indian government expects the GDP growth between 5.4% and 5.9% in the current fiscal whereas the economy grew by below -5% in 2012-13 and 2013-14.

OECD Secretary-General, Angel Gurria, said, “A number of business-friendly measures have been adopted over the past few months in India. The global economy remains stuck in low gear but is expected to accelerate gradually if countries implement growth-supportive policies. Widening differences across countries and regions are adding to the major risks on the horizon.”

“We have yet to achieve a broad-based sustained global expansion as investment, credit and international trade remain hesitant,” Gurria noted.

“Financial risks remain high and may increase market volatility in the coming period also there is an increasing risk of stagnation in the euro area. Countries must employ all monetary, fiscal and structural reform policies at their disposal to address these risks and support growth,” Gurria added.

Global GDP growth is projected to reach a 3.3% rate in 2014 before accelerating to 3.7% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016, the outlook report showed.

Among the advanced economies, USA is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2014 and around 3% in 2015 and 2016. Growth in the Euro zone is expected to pick up slowly from 0.8% in 2014 to 1.1% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016.

Global economic growth eased to a 6-month low in October 2014 reflecting weaker increases in new business and a slowdown in the rate of hiring, a survey showed.

J.P.Morgan’s ‘Global All-Industry Output Index’ produced with Markit fell to 53.6 from September’s 54.8 but has held above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction for more than two years.

A global PMI covering the services industry fell to 53.7 from 55.2. The October 2014 manufacturing PMI remained unchanged from 52.2 in September 2014.

The index combines survey data from countries including the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, China and Russia.

On the crude oil scenario, oil prices fell more than 3% a 4-year low last week as Brent crude oil fell below $80 per barrel after a stockpile surge in USA had traders worried about an oil glut.

Key indices edged higher settling flat on Monday, 10 November 2014, on marginal buying. The Sensex inched 6.10 points (+0.02%) to close at 27,874.73. The Nifty moved up 7.25 points (+0.09%) to close at 8,344.25.

Key indices jumped on Tuesday, 11 November 2014, on positive buying of equities due to cooling crude oil prices. The Sensex moved higher 35.33 points (+0.13%) to close at 27,910.06. The was up 18.40 points (+0.22%) to close at 8,362.65.

Key indices gained on Wednesday, 12 November 2014, on strong global cues. The Sensex rallied 98.84 points (+0.35%) to close at 28,008.90. The Nifty was up 20.65 points (+0.25%) to close at 8,383.30.

Key indices edged lower on Thursday, 13 November 2014, on profit booking. The Sensex fell 68.26 points (-0.24%) to close at 27,940.64. The Nifty was down 25.45 points (-0.30%) to close at 8,357.85.

Key indices settled higher on Friday, 14 November 2014, on buying by retail investors. The Sensex rallied 106.02 points (+0.38%) to close at 28,046.66. The Nifty was up 32.05 points (+0.38%) to an all-time closing high at 8,389.90.

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The Sensex advanced 178.03 points to close at 28,046.66 last week.

Indian corporates have started revealing their Q2FY15 earnings. Investors will closely watch the management results, which could cause revision in their future earnings forecast of the company in the current year.

The RBI Governor, Raghuram Rajan, is scheduled to announce the fifth bi-monthly monetary policy on Tuesday, 2 December 2014.

The falling Brent crude price, which has tumbled below $80/barrel and global worries other crucial factors that will keep dictating market movements.

The OPEC is scheduled to meet on Thursday, 27 November 2014 in Vienna, Austria to discuss its output targets for year 2015.

Market readies for a new orbit By G. S. Roongta

The stock market indices, which were flat or sluggish till week before last at BSE Sensex 27,568.63 with a negligible rise of just 2.65 points while the CNX Nifty too closed higher by 14.80 points at 8377 compared to the previous week.

Although the Sensex crossed the 28K mark at 28010 for a while on Monday, 10 November 2014, it could not sustain higher levels due to profit booking. This has happened in the past also when the Sensex rose by 1000 points at 24K, 25K and 26K levels. It repeated the pattern each time to cross & breach the resistance level several times till it regains momentum after consolidation. Last week, the Sensex crossed 28K thrice but each time it faced a reversal below 28K. This clearly indicates that the investors sitting on the fence have no patience and book whatever gains they can avail at

higher levels. They appear satisfied even with small gains!

Last week was full of encouraging events again both on the domestic and global fronts. Despite this, the market could not advance much till Thursday, 13 November 2014 because it needed due consolidation before it could march ahead further. Bulls appeared tired to take further positions at such high levels. Instead, they preferred to play the up & down game within a range of 100-200 points and thereby sustain their roll-over positions by booking profits in intra-week fluctuations through jobbing or switch their costlier stocks into scrips that had not participated till then.

Readers should not assume that the bears were out to short-sell. They cannot do so because if they try to short-sell, they will face problems in this bullish trend, which is emerging stronger at each 1000 Sensex point intervals. Besides, the market is in a higher orbit where the fluctuations are sharp on announcements of good news since the Narendra Modi government is determined to remove the bottlenecks and free the economy to expand by way of liberalistaion, initiate reforms and weed out corrupt practices.

Economists, rating agencies, analysts and market gurus are all singing the same tune that India’s economy will get a boost in 2015-16 to regain GDP growth of 7% while consolidating between 5.5-6% and 6% in 2014-15, signs of which are clearly visible now based on the following economic indicators:

(a) Crude oil, which was ruling high between US $110-115 throughout 2013-14 has fallen below US $80 per barrel. This single factor that places the Indian economy on the fast track in the 2nd half of 2014-15. This is clearly evident by the Q2FY15 corporate results, which are better than market expectations. As mentioned in the last issue, the bottom-lines of corporates have moved up in higher proportion and percentage terms compared to their top-line growth.

(b) 2013-14 was a challenging year because of the conflict between the government and the RBI Governor in the inflation v/s growth debate. The RBI always had the upper hand in trying to control inflation overlooking a soft interest rate regime to spur economic growth.

Although the consumer price index (CPI) fell to half of the 2013-14 peak level, yet Governor Raghuram Rajan is reported to be in no mood to oblige and cut the interest rate in the forthcoming RBI monetary policy on Tuesday, 2 December 2014.

It is ridiculous to talk of high inflation by a seasoned economist like Raghuram Rajan.

He must balance economic growth given the sharp fall in inflation from double digit to single digit. It should not be a prestige issue or a victim of party politics but should be viewed on emerging facts.

(c) The IIP data for September 2014 released late evening on Wednesday, 12 November 2014, provides much comfort yielding hopes that industrial activity has started gearing up. The September 2014 IIP at 2.5% and the retail inflation

GURU SPEAK

G. S. Roongta


at 5.52% in October 2014 was much below RBI Governor’s expectation of 6%. He had once stated that he will find room for easing interest rates only when retail inflation falls to 6%. As it has fallen below 6% now, he should have no hesitation to cut interest rate by 50 basis points at least since he had raised it by 100 basis points on his one year regime.

Based on the IIP data and the sharp fall in inflation, the stock market should have flared up by 300 to 500 Sensex points. But it was so astonishing that the market instead fell by 68.26 points to end at 27940 and CNX Nifty, too, finished lower by 25 points at 8357 on Thursday, 13 November 2014.

The fall was over 120 points in intra-day trades. This means that there are hidden forces that lead to strange developments to confuse investors and keep them in suspense.

The market recorded a rise of 200 to 300 points even when the IIP data was negative. But when the Sensex closes in the red, when both the IIP data and retail inflation is comfortably positive, it is indeed a matter of great concern and proves that punters have the upper hand to steer the market in their direction irrespective of the fundamental values.

(d) FIIs have been pumping fresh funds almost every day in November 2014 and they are much impressed by the growing Indian economy moving forward hereon and expect the 2014-15 GDP to rise 1% YoY basis and touch 5.7%. FIIs’ aggressive buying almost every day is a clear indication that the Indian stock market will remain bullish till it hits the 30,000 mark!

(e) The country’s exchequer is flush with the good tax collections on account of the rise in trading volumes and growth in business and industrial activities. Besides, the auction of 2G and 3G spectrum as well as the coal block allotments on or before March 2015 through e-auction.

(f) If the market remains good, divestment of government stake of Rs.40,000 to 50,000 crore cannot be ruled out. The government has raised custom duty on petroleum & crude products and cut petroleum prices for the third time in a row this year. This also attracts good tax collections followed by higher consumption.

(g) A soft interest regime is also likely either from December 2014 onwards or before the end of 2014-15. This will prove to be the greatest trigger to boost the stock markets to dizzy heights. As stated last week, the small and mid cap stocks still have enough scope because out of the 2500 stocks traded almost daily hardly 500 to 700 stocks have participated that too half heartedly.

As such, investors who are breaking their heads in the F&O segment, which has a two-way traffic i.e. chances of making money or loss alternatively. It is indeed a waste of time getting nothing! But if you invest in the bullish trend, it will benefit you undoubtedly.

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Two such stocks recommended in the last issue attracted volumes of 50 lakh shares in a day creating fancy in Pancharatna stocks.

Sugar stocks were in the limelight on Thursday, 13 November 2014. This sector is one that has been neglected by investors in the last three years. There are several stocks in the sector with good fundamentals.

Textiles, which is the backbone of industrial activity is another sector waiting for the boom.

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13 November 2014 should have closed in the negative. But punters have once again tried to misguide participants by a negative closing, which was neutralized on Friday, 14 November 2014, as the Sensex recovered 106 points to close the day and week at 28046.66. As forecast earlier, the market is readying for a new orbit, which will be triggered by the new RBI Policy.

By Amit Kumar Gupta

Mahindra CIE Automotive Ltd. (Code: 532756) (CMP: Rs.224) (TGT: Rs.260) Mahindra CIE Automotive Ltd. (MCI), formerly Mahindra Forgings Ltd., is a global forging company with plants in Germany, the United Kingdom and India. The German operations provide a range of forging parts for trucks. The Indian operations focus on design, development and machining of crankshafts for cars and utility vehicles (UVs) while the UK operations focus on near net forgings for the car market. In Europe, a portion of the product portfolio consists of products like machined forgings. The company’s products include engine components, which include crankshaft, camshaft, connecting rods, steering components and other forged products. The company manufactures steering knuckles/stub axles in weight range of 3 kg to 38 kg. Effective 24 October 2013, Participaciones Internacionales Autometal Dos SL, an unit of CIE Automotive SA's Autometal SA subsidiary, acquired a 52.65% interest in Mahindra Forgings Ltd.

Post the consummation of the deal, CIE would hold 51% in the entity while Mahindra would directly hold ~20%.

The Bombay High court has sanctioned the merger scheme of amalgamation between Mahindra CIE Automotive and Mahindra Ugine Steel, Mahindra Composites, Mahindra Hinoday Industries Ltd, Mahindra Gears International Ltd, Mahindra Investments (India) Pvt Ltd, Participaciones Internacionales Autometal Tres, SL.

The next set of approvals from SEBI, RBI and FIPB are likely to come in 4-5 weeks while the entire process is likely to be completed by the middle of December 2014 as per the management commentary.

We feel MCI provides a rare and unique Indian auto components play, which has a global footprint as global manufacturers display massive turnaround possibilities. MCI has presence across both commercial as well as passenger vehicles with the complementary strengths of the two parents. With cost controls and economic recovery playing out, we expect utilisation levels to improve, EBIT margins to rise to ~8% and RoCE expansion to ~14.5% in FY17E. MCI’s track record of turnarounds through cost control and focus on financial metrics provides the confidence.

Mahindra CIE Auto is an unique case of valuation considering the massive turnaround possibilities. We expect utilisation levels to improve leading the EBIT margins to rise to 9% and RoCE expansion to ~15.9% in FY17E. We expect a significant increase in dividend payouts to ~40% in line with MCI’s philosophy of high dividend payouts (~40-50%). We value MCI on a combination of P/E and EV/EBITDA. Considering it is a turnaround company, we upgrade the P/E multiples in line with the multiple expansion of its peers in the forging space.

We have a ‘Buy’ on the stock with a target of Rs.250.

Technical Outlook- The Mahindra CIE Automotive Ltd. stock is very strong on the daily chart and has been making higher highs and higher lows and is very strong in all time frames. The stock is also trading above all important moving averages like 200-DMA & 100-DMA and has broken out of ascending triangle pattern.

Start accumulation at this level at Rs.224 and on dips to Rs.195 for medium-to-long-term investment and price target of Rs.260+ in the next 12 months.

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V-Guard Industries Ltd. (Code: 532953) (CMP: Rs. 910) (TGT: Rs.1050) Earlier, we had recommended to buy this stock under ‘Stock Watch’ on 7 April 2014 at Rs.464. Thereafter, the stock zoomed smartly to Rs.940. yielding a fabulous return of 102.5%

V-Guard Industries Ltd. is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing a range of products, including voltage stabilizers, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) Cables, Pumps and Motors, Electric Water Heaters, Digital uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems, Fans, Solar Water Heaters, Switchgears and Induction Cooktops. The company operates in three segments: Electronic Products, Electrical / Electro Mechanical Products and Others. Its manufacturing facilities located at K.G. Chavady at Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu, at Kashipur in Utharakhand and at Kala Amb in Himachal Pradesh.

V-Guard’s Q2FY15 revenue grew 29% YoY to Rs.430 crore compared to our and Bloomberg’s consensus expectation of ~20% growth. Revenue momentum accelerated in South India (67% of revenue, +21% YoY) while remaining strong in rest of India (+47% YoY). Digital UPS revenues more than doubled YoY, and electric water heaters continued to

STOCK WATCH


deliver robust growth (+43% YoY). Most other products also saw strong revenue growth (housing wires: 20% YoY, stabilizers: 25% YoY, pumps: 19% YoY, fans: 36% YoY, new products: 60% YoY, solar water heater: 42%).

For the first half, V-Guard has delivered 23% YoY growth in H1FY15 despite an enlarged base (H1FY14: 17%).

The benefit of strong revenue growth in Q2FY15 was partly offset by the EBITDA margin (8.3%, +16bps YoY) coming lower than our expectation (8.5%). Consequently, EBITDA (Rs356m, +32% YoY) was only 1-4% ahead of our and consensus expectations despite gross margins expanding 46bps YoY. This was a result of higher employee costs (+25% YoY), ad spend (+31% YoY) and other overhead costs (+36% YoY) increasing sharply. The management also highlighted certain one-offs like: a) increase in warranty costs (digital UPS) and b) write-offs of components (movement to a new after sales service model) and higher Q2FY15 overheads by ~Rs.4-4.5 crore (~1ppt of revenues).

We expect V-Guard to post 29% EPS CAGR over FY14-17E and think revenue momentum should continue in H2FY15: (a) base quarters are relatively weak (H2FY14: +7% YoY cf. 17% growth in H1FY14) and (b) growth has picked up in digital UPS, pumps and stabilizers and (c) electric water heaters (led by the recently launched ‘Pebble’ brand) and new products enjoy strong growth.

We, therefore, raise our FY14-17E revenues by 7-11% and build-in one-off costs incurred in Q2FY15 and lower the EBITDA estimates by 60bps for FY15E and by 20-30bps for FY16E-17E. Further, we raise depreciation (new Companies Act) and tax rate (expiry of certain tax exemptions) assumptions in-line with the trend in H1FY15. This results in a 3% drop in FY15E PAT but raises FY16E-17E PAT by 4-8%.

Given its strong franchise impressive return ratios of >9x, we think V-Guard should be able to sustain its impressive 25-27% RoEs over FY15E-17E.

Valuation: We recommend to buy the V-Guard stock with a price with target of Rs.1058 as we move forward our Future Value by six months (to Sep-15) and attach a higher multiple (24x P/E vs 20x earlier) on improved revenue growth visibility. Valuations look reasonable to us at 23xFYE/ 18.3x FY16E/ FY17E P/E.

Technical Outlook: The V-Guard Industries stock is very strong on the daily chart as it has been making higher highs and higher lows and is very strong in all time frames. The stock is also trading above all important moving averages like 200-DMA & 100-DMA.

Start accumulating at this level of Rs.910 and on dips to Rs.835 for medium-to-long-term investment and price target of Rs.1050+ in the next 12 months.

By Rupesh M. Daga

Panasonic Energy (Code: 504093) (Rs.318.45) This stock was earlier recommended at Rs.92. level on 2 June 2014. Since then, it has appreciated by around 250% closing at Rs.318 on Friday, 14 November 2014. We recommend to BUY the stock even at current levels for decent appreciation in the short to medium term.

Panasonic Energy India Co. Ltd. (PEICL) was established in 1972 as Lakhanpal National Ltd. It is one of India’s largest manufacturer & supplier of dry cell batteries and lighting products. Headquartered in Vadodara (Gujarat), the company is a part of the global Panasonic Corporation, the world’s leading manufacturer of audio visual equipments, home appliances, electronic components, automotive electronics and environmental systems.

The company has two manufacturing facilities one each in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Its products include Zinc Carbon Batteries, Alkaline Batteries, Eneloop (Rechargeable) Batteries and Torches. The company sells its products under the brand of ‘Panasonic’ and ‘Novino’. It also holds the unique distinction of being the only eco friendly battery maker in India.

Panasonic Corporation holds 58% in its equity, FIIs hold close to 4%, corporate bodies hold close to 5% while the balance 33% is held by the investing public. India is one of the lowest consumer of batteries with an average per capita annual consumption of 2 batteries against 20 in Japan, 8 in USA, 7 in Europe and 5 in Brazil. The low consuming Indian market thus offers a great potential for demand growth as the trend for portable power and battery operated gadgets grows.

The company recently came out with its Q2FY15 numbers registering Sales of Rs.65.6 crore with PAT of Rs.5.3 crore. On an equity capital of Rs.7.5 crore, this translates into a quarterly EPS of Rs.7.1. At the CMP of Rs.318, the stock trades at a trailing P/E multiple of 11.3x, which is cheap compared to its nearest competitor, Eveready, which trades at a P/E

FIFTY FIFTY


multiple of 30x. Other listed group companies like Panasonic Carbon and Panasonic Appliances trade a P/E multiple of 20x and 50x respectively.

Considering its growth prospects, this stock of this Japanese MNC is a safe investment with good growth prospects.

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Shivam Autotech Ltd. (Code: 532776) (Rs. 74.50) Formerly known as Munjal Auto Components, Shivam Auto Tech commenced operations in September 1999 as a full-fledged, autonomous wing of the Ludhiana based HERO group, a renowned corporate giant with $7.5 billion turnover. With an employee strength of around 2500-3000, it manufactures and markets components for the Auto Sector to OEMs. Its product offering includes different kinds of gears, shafts, and plungers. It is the largest manufacturer of motorcycle gears and shafts in India. Its two factories produce 140000 gears each day for Hero Motorcorp Ltd., the world’s largest motorcycle manufacturer. Its other clients include Bosch, Denso India, Mitsuba, HILTI, Munjal Showa and Indo Nippon among others.

With the economy back on track and 2-wheeler companies, especially Hero MotoCorp registering record sales month after month, one should ride the Hero Motocorp boom with Shivam Auto. The company recently came out with its September 2014 quarterly numbers registering Sales of Rs.112 crore with Net profit of Rs.7.95 crore leading to a quarterly stood at Rs.1.59. At the CMP of Rs.75, the stock trades at a trailing P/E multiple of less than 10x. The stock can be bought for 50% appreciation in the short to medium term.

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Manali Petrochem (Code: 500268) (Rs.17.10) Manali Petrochemicals Ltd. is a leading producer of propylene oxide (PO), propylene Glycols (PG), and polypols. The company operates two grassroot production facilities at Manali in Tamil Nadu. Its products find application in various industries and used in pharmaceuticals formulations, food flavors, fragrances, detergents, perfumes, toilet soaps, automobile seats, garments, furniture, mattresses, adhesives, refrigeration, coatings, sealants, brake fuels, surfactants, polyurethane, resins, etc. The stock appears undervalued based on its improving financials and growth prospects ahead.

It currently produces 36000 TPA of PO, 16000 TPA of PG, 16000 TPA of polyether polyol and 5000 TPA of System polyol.

The stock trades at a forward P/E multiple of just 5x. It is a debt-free company and is expected to continue its growth rate of 15-20%. It regularly pays dividends and paid 10% for FY14 on its Rs.5 paid-up share.

Recently, it came out with its September 2014 quarterly numbers registering Sales of Rs.191 crore with Net profit of Rs.13.05 crore recording a quarterly EPS of Rs.0.76 v/s Rs.0.48 a year ago. At the CMP of Rs.17, the stock trades at a forward P/E multiple of less than 5x. The stock can be bought for 50-100% appreciation in the medium-term to long-term horizon.

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Tata Chemicals (Code: 500770) (Rs. 424.70) It is the flagship fertilizer and chemical company of the Tata Group. It is gradually shifting focus from the fertilizer and chemical business towards the consumer products division. In the last 3 years, the business from the consumer segment has grown from zero to over Rs.600 crore. In the next 5-10 years, it has decided to aggressively pursue consumer offerings with a primary focus on food based products. Currently, the consumer product segment comprises seeds, pulses, salt, pesticides, and ‘Swach’ water purifier.

This renewed focus augurs well for the company as the consumer products segment is a low asset, low investment and high return business. In fact, the company is planning is stop investments in its core business of chemicals and fertilizers as it is capex heavy with low margins.

At a P/E multiple of around 12, the stock with exposure to inorganic chemicals and the fast growing agricultural inputs and consumer staples (salt and pulses) businesses. The primary reason for the stock’s underperformance is its soda ash business but still there are reasons to be optimistic. The company is restructuring its UK operations and closing its soda ash plants in the region. It plans to reconfigure them to make sodium bi-carbonate, which is a higher margin business. These changes should help the company contain the losses and improve its European unit’s performance in the coming years. Moreover, demand and supply in the soda ash market has reached an equilibrium and helped raise prices. TCL’s quarterly results reflect the benefits of improved demand and higher prices. Sustained improvement in the coming quarters will result in a rally in the stock of Tata Chemicals, which can easily rise to Rs.600 mark.


By Vihari

DCM Shriram Industries: Highly diversified business The share of DCM Shriram Industries Ltd. (DCMSIL) (Code: 523369) (Rs.132) is recommended for decent gains in the medium-to-short-term after this diversified company declared good Q2FY15 and H1FY15 results.

DCMSIL diversified into a spectrum of related activities, which include manufacture of pharmaceutical grade sugar, sugarcane research farm, setting of distillery, manufacture of IMFL, Bio-Methanation, manufacture of aromatic chemicals, co-generation of power etc.

DCMSIL, a part of the DCM Shriram group promoted by Shri Bansi Dhar, is a diversified group with operations in Sugar, Alcohol, Organic and Inorganic Chemicals, Drug Intermediates, Rayon Tyrecord, Shipping Containers and processed cotton yarn.

DCMSIL, half of whose turnover comes from sugar, was established in 1990, following the three-way split of DCM Ltd. in 1990. It has manufacturing facilities located at Daurala (UP) and Kota (Rajasthan) and has a co-generation power plant of 12 MW.

DCM’s sugar division was established in 1932 in the name of Daurala Sugar Works. It has a cane sugar plant crushing 12,000 tonnes of cane per day (TCD) and a distillery and an aromatic chemicals unit.

Shriram Rayons situated at Kota comprises rayon tyrecord/yarn/fabric and nylon chafer/fabric plants with capacity of 16,200 TPA. This division was set up in 1965 to produce rayon tyrecord and the engineering and design for the plant was provided by Chemtex of USA.

Shriram Rayons is among the country’s major manufacturers of high-grade rayon tyre cord with nylon and rayon conversion facilities catering to the needs of both domestic and overseas markets.

Daurala Organics, its chemical division, manufactures new generation drug intermediates. The capacity of Organic/Fine Chemicals is 13,874 TPA.

Its Anhydrous Alcohol plant of 9000 KL capacity produces and supplies ethanol to oil companies for mixing with petrol is based on the latest state-of-the-art Membrane Technology and is the first plant of its kind in India established by a Japanese MNC.

Its indigenously designed distillery of 45,000 KLPA is rated among the largest in the country in terms of capacity, producing rectified spirit, extra neutral alcohol (ENA), denatured spirit and potable alcohol.

DCMSIL also has a complex for the manufacture of inorganic chemicals and obtains technical assistance from two international companies, Beunit Fibres Inc, USA and Chemtex Inc, USA.

As per the segment analysis, sugar constitutes 49% of its total turnover, fibre constitutes 27% and industrial chemicals account for balance 24%. Sugar contributed 41% to the overall operating profits in FY14 whereas fibre contributed 41% and industrial chemicals contributed 18% to the operating profits.

During FY14, consolidated net profit skyrocketed 441% to Rs.31.9 crore on 19% higher sales of Rs.1284 crore. The FY14 EPS stood at Rs.18.3 and a dividend of 35% was paid.

During Q2FY15, net profit rose 31% to Rs.5.7 crore from Rs.4.3 crore in Q2FY14 on 3% higher sales of Rs.326 crore. For H1FY15, net profit zoomed 116% to Rs.19.2 crore on 9% higher sales of Rs.662 crore. The H1FY15 EPS was Rs.11 as against Rs.5.1 in H1FY14. DCMSIL’s equity capital is Rs.17.4 crore and with reserves of Rs.202 crore, the book value of its share works out to Rs.126. The promoters hold 43.8% equity stake, foreign holding is 0.4%, institutions hold 7.7% and PCBs hold 32% leaving 16.1% with the investing public.

The government’s decision to offer subsidy on exports of raw sugar will lead to higher exports and help reduce the excess sugar stocks in India. Aided by a lower output in India, ex-mill sugar prices are expected to rise gradually going ahead.

The capability built-up of its industrial fibre and product division over the last few years to supply value-added fabric along to a larger customer base have helped this unit post a solid performance. Thanks to sustained improvement in the product

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quality, DCMSIL is one of the preferred suppliers to the international tyre manufacturers in the high performance segment. With long-term understanding with all leading tyre manufacturers like Goodyear, Bridgestone, Pirelli, Michelin and Dunlop, the company will witness a steady growth in revenues.

Demand for DCMSIL’s chemical products continues to remain stable and the company was able to increase prices as well. The focus is on value-added products such as extra neutral alcohol and anhydrous alcohol as well as on exports. A plant to manufacture a high-value product on a contract basis for a large multinational corporation has been commissioned, which can open new opportunities in future.

DCMSIL has posted excellent FY14 as well as H1FY15 results. Based on the current going and the initiatives announced by the government, DCMSIL is expected to post an EPS of Rs.30 in FY15.

In view of DCMSIL’s diversified business model, increased sugar consumption, improving prospects for its fibre and industrial chemicals coupled with improved results, the DCMSIL share trades at Rs.132 at a forward P/E multiple of 4.4 on FY15 estimated EPS of Rs.30 and recommended for 50% medium-to-short-term gain with a price target of Rs.210 when it will trade at a forward P/E of 7. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.173/30.

********

Astra Microwave Products: For mind blowing gains The share of Astra Microwave Products Ltd. (AMPL) (Code: 532493) (Rs.118) (FV: Rs.2) can be bought for decent appreciation in the medium-term as this defence player has come out with mind-blowing Q2FY15 and H1FY15 results.

Incorporated as a private limited company in 1991 and converted into a public limited company in 1993, AMPL uses microwave technology to offer a range of innovative products for defence, space and civil telecom applications. It focuses on defence with the supply of sub-systems for radar electronics, missile electronics and electronic warfare (EW) applications apart from telemetry components. Its world-class R&D and state-of-art manufacturing facilities are located at Bollarum and Maheswaram in Andhra Pradesh near Hyderabad. These facilities comply with stringent quality standards of Defence and Space agencies for product development. It is ISO 9001:2000 certified by Intertek of USA.

AMPL recently ventured into avionics. Its specific product developments include T/R modules for phased array radars in S, C and KU bands. Space applications comprise satellite modules for ISRO and all weather stations for disaster management programs. Its products are widely used by corporates, public institutions, telecommunication companies, commercial enterprises and defence laboratories of the Government of India.

AMPL manufactures radio frequency (RF) and microwave systems used in Defence, Space and Civil communication systems. Astra’s product range includes radar, telemetry, ground surveillance antenna and electronic counter measures for defence applications, ground based generators and S-level (on-board) for space applications. Telecom products include MSS terminals, industrial security system and civil telecom products. Meteorology products are Met Towers and automatic weather stations. Astra Micro’s leadership position is built on the foundation of its strong and long-standing relationship with its customers, some of which go right back to the concept stage of new product developments.

Its indigenously created technologies and platforms are developed by its R&D activities and participation in programs like Akash missiles and CAR radars that are in continuous production, which will contribute significantly going forward. The ‘ASTRA’ Air-to-Air missile is a major product under development that will be a part of the airborne armoury. The company has developed strong capabilities in electronic warfare systems for use by the armed forces.

In FY12, AMPL acquired 26% stake in Bangalore based Traana Technologies Pvt. Ltd, which specializes in digital space and it would complement Astra Micro’s strength in RF and Microwave competencies. Its strategy is clear that it will go-to market together rather than takeover. This partnership will open-up new markets for Astra Micro in future.

In FY13, Astra Micro launched a subsidiary, Bhavyabhanu Electronics Pvt. Ltd., with senior people from Astra Micro on board to develop and deliver PCB/SMT products to parent Astra Micro. It is mandated, to explore possibilities beyond meeting Astra Micro’s need FY16 onwards. Its order book as at H1FY15 stood at Rs.975 crore.

For FY14, AMPL’s net profit was Rs.50.8 crore on sales of Rs.531 crore. The consolidated EPS stood at Rs.6.2 and a dividend of 55% was paid. Exports for FY14 stood at Rs.342 crore or 64% of sales.

During Q2FY15, AMPL’s net profit zoomed 101% to Rs.23.4 crore on 65% higher sales of Rs.190 crore and the quaterly EPS stood at Rs.2.9.

For H1FY15, net profit zoomed 208% to Rs.42.5 crore on 148% higher sales of Rs.380 crore and the H1FY15 EPS stood at Rs.5.2.

AMPL’s equity capital is Rs.16.4 crore and with reserves of Rs.225 crore, the book value of its share works out to Rs.29.4. With debts of just Rs.52 crore, the debt:equity ratio (DER) works out to 0.21:1. The value of its gross block is Rs.232 crore, cash and cash equivalent including investments and loans given are worth Rs.17 crore. The promoters


hold 19.7% in the equity, MFs hold 21.6%, PCBs hold 16.6% and with foreign holding of 12.3% leaves 29.8% with the investing public.

The Defence segment, both domestic and overseas put together, contributes over 90% of its revenues. While the production of Missiles and Radar sub-systems drives the domestic business, other defence requirements is driving the export business. The business potential from this segment is likely to improve further in the coming years.

AMPL will spend about Rs.12 crore in FY15 to augment its Development and Production and the amount will be met out of internal accruals and term loans. In FY14, AMPL had added assets (net) worth Rs.32 crore to the gross block. Most of the additions pertain to Testing equipments, EMI/EMC test facility and 1 MW solar plant for captive consumption. The addition of these equipments and facilities has enhanced its productivity.

Astra Micro has offered a board position to a L&T nominee in April 2014. It is a strategic decision that is directionally positive and will bring in significant synergies. The recent hike in composite FDI (FDI+FII) limit in defence companies to 49% will lead to higher P/E multiples.

The Indian Defence Budget is rising year on year both in terms of the total value and also as a percentage of the Union Budget allocation itself and the percentage of capital expenditure is growing every year creating a bigger demand for defence equipment. Also, studies show that the Indian defence market is among the most attractive defence markets in the world. Till recently, the Armed forces, procured their requirements either by direct imports or products developed by Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) labs and produced by defence PSUs or the Ordnance factories. With the Government of India’s thrust on self-reliance, new opportunities are now emerging in this sector.

To accelerate the process of self-reliance, DRDO labs are partnering with private industries in designing new products and are also willing to transfer technologies of complex products that till now was confined to PSUs or Ordnance Factories.

Also, the latest Defence Procurement Policy (DPP) provides for offset credits for the technologies transferred (TOT) to Indian companies, which will encourage the foreign companies to transfer know-how thereby creating more opportunities for Indian companies.

The private sector engaged in defence manufacturing is extremely delighted by this policy initiative, which will ensure that the industry becomes self-reliant and millions of new jobs are created.

Indian companies will succeed with the help of foreign companies as it benefits both. Once indigenous manufacturing takes root, research and development for the indigenous military industry and civil aircraft is likely to be the other focus area of the Indian government.

AMPL is a beneficiary of defence project announcements and has put in bids worth Rs.30,000 crore for new projects.

Based on the H1FY15 results, AMPL is likely to post an EPS of Rs.12 in FY15, which may rise to Rs.15 in FY16. At the current market price of Rs.118, the Astra Micro share trades at a forward P/E multiple of 9.8 on FY15 estimated earnings and 7.9 times FY16 projected earnings. A reasonable P/E ratio of 15 will take its share price to Rs.180 in the medium-term and Rs.225 thereafter. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.156/40.

Roongta’s Panchratna

Pick of 5 Penny stocks, Dark Horses, Turnaround stocks

The lacklustre five years between 2008 and 2013 have created a great opportunity to invest in Penny stocks, Dark Horses and

Turnaround stocks in 2014-15 and reap profits higher than what expensive blue chips or Index based stocks can offer.

Mr. G. S. Roongta, who has acquired a name in identifying such winners early in Money Times, will pick five such stocks below Rs.50

each for an investment horizon of 1-2 years.

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By Nayan Patel

Swiss Glascoat Equipments Ltd. BSE Code: 522215

Last Close: Rs.91.45

Swiss Glascoat Equipments Ltd. (SGEL) manufactures and sells glass lined equipments and spares in India and overseas. The company provides glass lined reactors, process tanks, evaporation vessels, RCVDs, distillation columns, mixers and agitators, heat exchangers, dryers, blenders, agitated filters, pipes, valves and fittings, glass lined condensers and columns and other paraphernalia for use in pharmaceuticals, dyes, chemicals and fertilizer industries. It also manufactures various accessories, such as glass lined agitating systems, including turbines, anchors, pitch blades, and axial propellers; diaphragm, bellow - sealed, and diaphragm valve flush bottom outlet valves; and glass lined flanged pipes, elbows, crosses, and T-pieces, as well as reducing flanges and reducers. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is based at Anand, in Gujarat.

It has an equity base of Rs.5 crore backed by huge reserves of around Rs.16.51 crore leading to a share book value of Rs.45.29. The promoters hold 35.72% while the investing public holds 64.07% stake in the company. Auto ancillary giant Banco Products holds 87,700 shares in this company.

For Q2FY15, SGEL has reported sales of Rs.24.29 crore as against Rs.16.16 crore in Q2FY14. Despite 48.71% higher provisioning for income tax, net profit jumped 49.36% to Rs.1.18 crore.

For H1FY15, SGEL posted sales of Rs.45.09 crore as against Rs.32.45 crore in H1FY14. Despite 29.11% higher provisioning for income tax, profit after tax (PAT) has risen smartly by 32.5% to Rs.2.12 crore. EPS for the Q2FY15 stood at Rs.2.38 and Rs.4.26 for H1FY15.

(Rs. in cr.) Q2FY15 Q2FY14 H1FY15 H1FY14 FY14 FY15(E) FY16(E)

Sales 24.29 16.16 45.09 32.45 76.79 95 120

PBT 1.76 1.18 3.15 2.39 5.75 - -

Tax 0.58 0.39 1.02 0.79 1.94 - -

PAT 1.18 0.79 2.12 1.60 3.80 4.5 5.3

EPS 2.38 1.58 4.26 3.21 7.61 9 10.6

For FY15, SGEL can deliver net sales of Rs.95 crore with net profit of Rs.4.5 crore translating into an EPS of Rs.9. For FY16, it can deliver net sales of Rs.120 crore and PAT of Rs.5.3 crore translating into an EPS of Rs.10.6.

The scrip is trading at 10.2xFY15(E) EPS & 8.7xFY16(E) EPS, which is very cheap compared to its peers. The company has paid regular dividends to its shareholders. It paid 22% dividend for FY13 and 25% for FY14.

Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.79. On the upper side, it will zoom to Rs.125 level in the medium-term and Rs.160 level in the next 12-16 months.

Shivalik Bimetal’s sharp turnaround Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd., a company specialized in joining of materials through various methods such as diffusion bonding/Cladding, Electron Beam Welding, Solder Reflow and Resistance Welding, has posted a sharp turnaround in Q2FY15 as Total Income climbed 30.45% to Rs.24.36 crore from Rs.18.67 crore and recorded a Net Profit of Rs.1.85 crore as against a loss of Rs.13.72 lakh in Q2FY14.

For the first half H1FY15, Shivalik Bimetal recorded 19.37% higher Total Income of Rs.45.73 crore as against Rs.38.31 crore in H1FY14. Net Profit skyrocketed to Rs.3.39 crore from just Rs.38.47 lakh in H1FY14 and is almost equal to its full FY14 profit of Rs.3.53 crore. At the half-yearly level, the company posted a handsome EPS of Rs.1.76 as against Rs.0.20 in H1FY14 and Rs.1.86 for full FY14 on its Rs.2 paid-up share.

Mafatlal Industries launches ‘2015 Range of Uniform Fabrics’ Mafatlal Industries Ltd (MIL) has organized an exhibition of ‘2015 Range of School & Corporate Uniform Fabrics’ on 17 November 2014 at Krishna Palace Hotel, Grant Road, Mumbai.

TECHNO FUNDA

MARKET FOLIO


The company has organized a chain of uniform fabric conferences on 23rd November at Rajahmundry, on 29th November at Chennai, on 5th December at Tirupur, on 12th December at Trichy and on 14th December at Ambala.

Mafatlal specializes in high end quality of school and corporate uniform fabrics and provides a range of polyester cotton blended, polyester viscose blended, polyester wool blended fabrics in over 3000 designs in shirtings and over 150 shades in suitings.

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infringement of this condition will be liable to prosecution.

Printed & Published by R.N. Gupta for the proprietors Time Communications (India) Ltd. and printed by him at The Urdu Press 79-A, Jairaj Bhai

Lane, Mumbai – 400 008. Registration No.: 63312/91, REGD. NO. MH/MR/South - 72/ 2006-08 Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any liability for the use of

this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are

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