mtef/joint programming : update and current issues
DESCRIPTION
MTEF/Joint Programming : update and current issues. DPG MTEF/Joint programming workshop 25 July 2006. Plan for the workshop. Updates on MTEF projections, Joint Program doc, Paris survey Suggested issues for joint program Roundtable : DP presentations on projections - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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MTEF/Joint Programming : update and current issues
DPG MTEF/Joint programming workshop
25 July 2006
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Plan for the workshop
Updates on MTEF projections, Joint Program doc, Paris survey Suggested issues for joint program
Roundtable : DP presentations on projections
Outputs (to be discussed with GOT, CSO) Next steps for MTEF projections (a) for joint
programming (b) for 07/08 budget cycle Agreed issues/approach for programming within joint
doc
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MTEF DP projections so far……. 14 agencies + collective UN projections
received so far Analysis below based on data received 5pm
yesterday Analysis focussed on aggregate projection
issues highlighted in earlier DP discussion, (need to capture planned disbursements, not just existing commitments)
Other analysis to follow, guided by today’s discussion
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DPs Support (2006/07=100)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
World Bank Denmark Norway Netherlands Ireland EC ADB
DfID Finland Switzerland UN Japan Canada Germany
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Budget Support (2006/07=100)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
World Bank Denmark Norway Netherlands Ireland EC ADB
DfID Finland Switzerland UN Japan Canada Germany
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DPs Support (% of GDP, 2006/07=100)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
World Bank Denmark Norway Netherlands Ireland EC ADB
DfID Finland Switzerland UN Japan Canada Germany
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Budget Support (% of GDP, 2006/07=100)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
World Bank Denmark Norway Netherlands Ireland EC ADB
DfID Finland Switzerland Japan Canada Germany
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Total DPs Suppor t (% of GDP)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Total
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Budget Support (% of GDP)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Total
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Total External Financing, actaul + projections
Donor Support
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
% o
f G
DP
Actual Donor Support MTEF Projection 06 MTEF Projection 05
MTEF Projection 04 MTEF Projection 03
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Total External Financing, actual + projections
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
% o
f G
DP
Actual Donor Support MTEF Projection 07 MTEF Projection 06
MTEF Projection 05 MTEF Projection 04 MTEF Projection 03
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Issues for the joint program document : criteria Adding value to individual agency plans
(clarifying overall context, adjusting collective strategy, adding collective commitments)
Useful contribution achievable in time horizon for program doc
Useful for strengthening national planning and budget process, not just one off exercise to meet agency program doc requirements
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Preliminary suggestions
Looking at key aggregates Aid absorption/scaling up Alignment with MKUKUTA Alignment with JAS Evolution of budget support
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Aggregate financing
Profile of key aggregates : budget support, sector financing, total public, non state
Reliability : inclusion of commitments and plans. can projections be recommended by agencies and DPG overall as sound base for GOT planning?
Can the aggregates be made more reliable than the components ? Collective DPG commitment to review shortfalls,
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Aid absorption/scaling up
At first glance, projections suggest focus may need to be on issues of scaling down !
Given recent history on external financing projections, should at least explore scenario of continued increase, and potential absorption issues at macro and sector level
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Alignment with MKUKUTA
Analysis by sector (distribute sector projections for sector group comment?)
Analysis of match with MKUKUTA eg alignment with requirements on financing growth agenda, major infrastructure, transport sector plan, etc
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Alignment with JAS
Paris Declaration survey tells us where we are now on implementing JAS principles
MTEF projections can tell us where we will be up to 2010, based on existing plans (indicators 5,6,8…any others?) - preliminary target for JAS implementation, basis for dialogue
Few DPs have responded on specific indicators but should be fairly easy on basis of projections
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Budget support in the MTEF
Proportion of budget support appears to be rising (as % GDP, declining less rapidly than total external financing)
Looking for changes in expenditure/financing patterns consistent with continued budget support eg budget financing of core reform, additional domestic capital expenditure