mtg q412 presentation final
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Modern Times Group MTG Fourth Quarter & FY 2012 Financial Results
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Forward looking statements
Forward-looking information and Safe Harbour Statement under the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
This report contains forward-looking information based on the current expectation of MTG management. Although management deems that the expectations presented by such forward-looking information are reasonable, such forward-looking information is subject to risks and uncertainties and no guarantee can be given that these expectations will prove correct. Accordingly, the actual future outcome could vary considerably when compared to what is stated in the forward-looking information, due to such factors as described above in the Risks & Uncertainties section.
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Q4 2012
• Sales stable y-o-y at constant FX
• Sales up 4% y-o-y at constant FX when excluding discontinued or sold operations
• OPEX up y-o-y at constant FX
• Following investments in the Nordic and Emerging Markets pay-TV businesses, and up even more when excluding discontinued or sold operations
• EBIT before associated company income of SEK 514 (551) mn
• Total EBIT of SEK 476 (-2,515) mn including SEK -38 (116) mn of associated company income & SEK -3,182 mn of non-recurring items in 2011
• PTP of SEK 467 (-2,519) mn
• Including SEK -7 (43) mn negative non-cash impact of change in value of option element of CDON convertible bond
• Net income of SEK 378 (-2,564) mn & basic EPS of SEK 5.25 (-38.87)
• Key executive management changes to strengthen team
• Cash flow from operations up 12% y-o-y to SEK 583 (519) mn
• Net debt down to SEK 1 mn from SEK 634 mn in Q3
SEK mn
* EBIT excluding associated income
3,711 3,620
551 514
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Q4 2011 Q4 2012
Revenue EBIT* EBIT margin
5
FY 2012
• Sales up 1% y-o-y at constant FX
• Up 3% y-o-y at constant FX when excluding discontinued or sold operations
• OPEX up y-o-y at constant FX
• Up even more when excluding discontinued or sold operations during 2012
• EBIT before associated company income of SEK 1,695 (1,933) mn
• Total EBIT of SEK 2,124 (-615) mn, including SEK 429 (634) of associated company income & non-recurring items of SEK -3,182 mn
• PTP of SEK 2,034 (-727) mn
• Including SEK -15 (14) negative non-cash impact of change in value of option element of CDON convertible bond
• Net income of SEK 1,594 (-1,289) mn & basic EPS of SEK 22.93 (-19.98)
• Received SEK 208 (319) mn of dividends from CTC Media
• Cash flow from operations of SEK 1,655 (1,853) mn
• Board of Directors to propose 11% increase in annual ordinary dividend to SEK 10.00 (9.00) to AGM in May 2013
SEK mn
* EBIT excluding associated income
13,473 13,336
1,933 1,695
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
FY 2011 FY 2012
Revenue EBIT* EBIT margin
Forward Expectations
As previously announced, the Group continues to expect its Nordic pay-TV business to grow its revenues at constant exchange rates in 2013, and to report an operating (EBIT) margin of approximately 10-12% for the full year 2013. The segment margin is expected to increase in 2014. The Group also continues to expect the previously announced investments in its Emerging Market pay-TV operations to result in lower profitability levels in 2013 and expects rising profitability levels in 2014. However, when combining the Group’s decision to reduce its investments in its Ukrainian pre-paid satellite service, as the package and pricing structures are reviewed in the context of a highly competitive market environment, with higher ingoing mini-pay subscription balances at the beginning of the year, the segment is expected to achieve a breakeven EBIT result for the full year 2013. This compares with the Group’s previous expectations for the segment to report an operating (EBIT) loss of less than SEK 50 million for the full year 2013.
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Free-TV Scandinavia Financial Highlights
• Sales down 6% y-o-y at constant FX in Q4 & down 4% in 2012
• Decline in Danish TV advertising market
• Lower audience shares and high sold out ratios for the Group’s combined channels in each country
• Norwegian & Swedish TV ad markets expected to have grown in Q4
• OPEX down 6% y-o-y in Q4 & up 1% for FY
• OPEX was down slightly less y-o-y in the quarter at constant FX, but up more y-o-y for FY at constant FX
• The underlying y-o-y development in the quarter followed the deferral of certain programming investments into 2013
• EBIT margin of 21.8% (22.7%) in Q4 & 19.1% (24.5%) for FY
SEK mn
SEK mn
1,240 1,147
282 250
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Q4 2011 Q4 2012
Revenue EBIT EBIT margin
4,393 4,157
1,077 793
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
FY 2011 FY 2012
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Free-TV Scandinavia Operating Highlights Sweden • Higher y-o-y ratings for the TV8 and TV10 channels
but lower viewing shares for TV6 and for TV3 • TV3’s prime time target audience share was up y-o-y in
Q4 following scheduling improvements
Denmark • Lower ratings for the TV3 and TV3+ channels, but
higher ratings for TV3 PULS • Both TV3+ and TV3 PULS reported higher y-o-y
prime time ratings in Q4
Norway • Lower ratings for both TV3 and Viasat4 following
weaker than anticipated performance of a number of certain local productions
• Combined CSOV up y-o-y in December & in prime-time
Commercial Audience Share (15-49)
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Sweden Norway Denmark
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Free-TV Scandinavia Operating highlights Sweden • Prime-time CSOV up y-o-y in Q4 as a result of strenghtened schedules • Spring schedules have been launched & feature both successful formats from 2012 and new acquired &
locally produced content • Up-front negotiations on-going & gross rate card prices are up • New distribution agreements signed with Telenor for TV10 to be included in basic package in
Bredbandsbolaget IPTV and Canal Digital Cable from mid-year 2013 – to drive channel penetration from approximately 73% in Q4 2012 to approximately 77% later in 2013
Denmark • TV 3 ratings up in key prime-time slots in Q4 • Recent channel distribution agreements with Boxer and Canal Digital Satellite to push penetration of TV3 to
79% in Feb and TV3 PULS to 57% in July, from 67% and 46% respectively today & to drive audience and market shares
• TV3 available on Boxer DTT platform from January 2013 & TV3 PULS to be available from July • Sales cooperation to sell advertising airtime on Viacom’s MTV and VH1 channels as part of MTG media
house
Norway • Launch of TV3 HD & Viasat4 HD in Canal Digital’s cable TV offering • Signed agreement with Canal Digital to make a third, yet to be launched, free-TV channel available to Canal
Digital’s large installed cable TV customer base later in the year – enables implementation of multi-channel media strategy in Norway
4,730 4,925
923 834
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
FY 2011 FY 201211
Pay-TV Nordic Financial Highlights • Sales up 2% y-o-y in Q4 & up 4% for FY
• Up 3% y-o-y at constant FX in Q4 & up 5% for FY
• Positive FX movements, higher HD and Viaplay subscriber intake & one-off pay-per-view revenues from boxing title fight in Denmark
• OPEX up 7% y-o-y for both periods
• Up more at constant FX for both periods
• Investments in premium movie and sports content and Viaplay platform, as well as Viasat Film rebranding & launch of additional HD and catch-up channels
• EBIT margin of 15.9% (20.1%) in Q4 & 16.9% (19.5%) for FY
• As previously announced, the Group continues to expect its Nordic pay-TV business to grow its revenues at constant exchange rates in 2013, and to report an operating (EBIT) margin of approximately 10-12% for the full year 2013. The segment margin is expected to increase in 2014
SEK mn
SEK mn
1,221 1,244
246 198
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Q4 2011 Q4 2012Revenue EBIT EBIT margin
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Pay-TV Nordic Operating Highlights • Overall subscriber base up when including
Viaplay
• New Viaplay apps launched on Apple iOS & Android platforms, & Viaplay now available on Microsoft Xbox 360 & Sony PlayStation3
• Overall premium subscriber base, when excluding the undisclosed and growing Viaplay online subscriber base, was lower q-o-q and y-o-y as anticipated
• 3’rd party subscriber base up both q-o-q and y-o-y & added 7,000 net new subscribers in the quarter, but did not fully compensate for the decline in the satellite subscriber base
• Strengthened Danish offering by signing a number of channel distribution agreements to carry all free-TV channels on the Danish platform & C More Entertainment channels
• Premium satellite ARPU up 4% y-o-y in Q4 and up 1% q-o-q
• Positive y-o-y and q-o-q development due to price increases and ongoing HD subscriber intake
Thou
sand
s Th
ousa
nds
Premium subscribers
Value added services
050
100150200250300350400
ViasatPlus HDTV Multi-room
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Satellite subscribers 3'rd party network subscribers
Content Leadership TV & Movies…
Local titles
International titles
1’st Pay
2’nd Pay
Content Leadership …And Premium Sports
* In Sweden & Denmark
** In Denmark & Norway
* **
• Total sales up 8% y-o-y in Q4 & 3% for FY at constant FX
• Continued sales growth and increased advertising market shares in almost all operating territories
• OPEX down y-o-y in Q4 but up at constant FX & down for FY at both reported & constant FX
• Improved operating profit y-o-y for both periods & substantially increased operating margins of 15.4% for Q4 and 7.7% for FY
• Baltics, Czech & Bulgarian sales up 7% y-o-y in Q4 & up 2% for FY
• Up 12% in Q4 & up 7% for FY at constant FX
• Combined OPEX up 2% y-o-y in Q4 & down 2% for FY & up at constant FX
• Consolidation of the LNT operations and investments in the Czech Republic
• EBIT up 35% y-o-y in Q4 & up 50% for FY, with increased EBIT margins of 16.9% (13.4%) and 9.9% (6,7%) for FY
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Free-TV Emerging Markets Financial Highlights
Free-TV Emerging Markets
Baltics, Czech Republic & Bulgaria
SEK mn
SEK mn
655 675
2,073 2,035
67 104 32 156
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Q4 2011 Q4 2012 FY 2011 FY 2012Revenue EBIT
591 630
1,845 1,874
79 106 124 186
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
Q4 2011 Q4 2012 FY 2011 FY 2012Revenue EBIT
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Free-TV Emerging Markets Operating Highlights Baltics • Sales up 39% y-o-y in Q4 at constant FX and up 16%
for the year
• Consolidation of LNT in Latvia & higher sales in Lithuania, with stable y-o-y sales in Estonia
• Pan-Baltic commercial target audience share of 48.5% (42.6%)
Czech Republic • Sales up 4% y-o-y in Q4 at constant FX and up 5% for
the year
• CSOV up y-o-y following higher ratings for Prima Cool and Prima Love
• Launch of Prima Zoom
• Launch of sales cooperation with Barrandov
Bulgaria • Sales up 5% y-o-y in Q4 at constant FX and up 1% for
FY
• Combined CSOV up significantly both y-o-y & q-o-q following increased investments in successful locally produced programming
• Launch of sales cooperation to sell TV ad air time on a number of channels
Commercial Audience Share
* MTG has included the LNT channels in its reported combined CSOV in Latvia with effect from Q3 2012
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Estonia (15-49) Latvia (15-49)*
Lithuania (15-49) Czech Republic (15-54)
Bulgaria (18-49)
• Sales up 14% y-o-y in Q4 & 15% for FY • Up 19% y-o-y at constant FX both in the quarter &
up15% for FY OPEX up 15% y-o-y in Q4 & up 5% for FY
• Lower than anticipated y-o-y increase in segment OPEX in Q4 primarily reflected general & administrative cost savings and renegotiation of content rights, which to some extent offset the previously announced investments in Russian & Ukrainian pay-TV content, HD channels & pre-paid satellite service in Ukraine
• EBIT of SEK 5 (7) y-o-y in the quarter, and SEK 144 (49) for FY & EBIT margin of 1.9% (2.8%) in Q4 & 13.6% (5.3%) for FY
• The Group also continues to expect the previously announced investments in its Emerging Market pay-TV operations to result in lower profitability levels in 2013 and expects rising profitability levels in 2014. However, when combining the Group’s decision to reduce its investments in its Ukrainian pre-paid satellite service, as the package and pricing structures are reviewed in the context of a highly competitive market environment, with higher ingoing mini-pay subscription balances at the beginning of the year, the segment is expected to achieve a breakeven EBIT result for the full year 2013. This compares with the Group’s previous expectations for the segment to report an operating (EBIT) loss of less than SEK 50 million for the full year 2013
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Pay-TV Emerging Markets Financial Highlights
SEK mn
SEK mn
237
271
7 5 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q4 2011 Q4 2012
Revenue EBIT EBIT margin
922
1,062
49 144
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
FY 2011 FY 2012
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Pay-TV Emerging Markets Operating Highlights
• 52,000 net new subscribers added y-o-y & 41,000 q-o-q, following seasonally high subscriber intake on the Russian and Ukrainian satellite platforms
• Wholesale channel business added over 19 mn
subscriptions y-o-y & over 8 million subscriptions q-o-q
• Particularly high growth in the Russian base
• The Group has been selling a premium package of five HD channels (including its three newly launched HD movie channels) in Russia, Ukraine and the CIS since the beginning of December & 2 major Russian cable TV networks have already signed contracts to distribute the new HD channel package
Satellite subscribers
Mini-pay TV subscriptions Th
ousa
nds
Thou
sand
s
400
500
600
Satellite subscribers
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012
02468
10121416
Russia & Ukraine Set for continued growth
19
Millions Russia – Pay-TV Satellite
Households1
Russia - Cable & IPTV Households2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Millions
Ukraine – Pay-TV Satellite Households1
Ukraine - Cable & IPTV Households2
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200Thousands
Thousands
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Source: Screen Digest 2013 data; 1: Including low-ARPU satellite like Tricolor; in Russia 2: Including social cable
Wholesale Channel Business Evolution with channel package
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• Channels available in Russia, Ukraine & CIS
• Approximately 1.3 million potential HD enabled households potentially addressable
• Rapid expansion of HD expected
• Already signed deals with two major Russian networks
Exclusive Premium Content from major Hollywood Studios
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Other Businesses Highlights
• Comprises MTG’s Radio operations in Norway & Sweden and MTG Studios content production businesses
• Sales down 2% y-o-y in the quarter & up 1% for FY at constant FX when excluding the contribution of the Bet24 operations
• The y-o-y development in the quarter reflected a decline in Swedish radio advertising sales as the Group’s operation of 20 NRJ licenses in Sweden came to an end
• Profits substantially down y-o-y in Q4 and for FY
• The y-o-y development in the quarter reflected increased production costs for the MTG Studios operations, which were offset to an extent by the lower costs for the Radio
• Paprika Latino consolidated from 17 September 2012
SEK mn
SEK mn
450
316
32 0
050
100150200250300350400450500
Q4 2011 Q4 2012
Revenue EBIT1,674
1,418
114 6
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
FY 2011 FY 2012
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Income Statement
• Depreciation & amortisation charges of SEK 57 (38) mn in Q4 & 147 (183) for the year
• Net interest charges down y-o-y to SEK 0 (-15) mn in Q4 & SEK -34 (-59) mn for FY
• Y-o-y change in other financial items included SEK -7 (43) mn non-cash financial impact in Q4 & SEK -15 (14) mn for the year from the change in value of the option element of the SEK 250 mn CDON Group convertible bond between the balance sheet dates
• Effective tax rate of 19% in Q4 & 23% for the year
• Revaluation of deferred tax liabilities in Sweden due to change in corporate tax from 1 Jan 2013
• Positive effects from prior years
(SEK mn) Q4
2012 Q4
2011 FY
2012 FY
2011
Net sales 3,620 3,711 13,336 13,473
EBIT before associated company income 514 551 1,695 1,933
Associated company income -38 116 429 634
Non-recurring items - -3,182 - -3,182
EBIT 476 -2,515 2,124 -615
Net interest & other financial items -8 -4 -90 -112
Income before tax 467 -2,519 2,034 -727
Tax -89 -46 -440 -561
Net income 378 -2,564 1,594 -1,289
Basic EPS 5.25 -38.87 22.93 -19.98
Diluted EPS 5.24 -38.88 22.87 -20.01
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Cash Flow
• Cash flow from operations included receipt of SEK included the receipt of SEK 51 (90) million and SEK 208 (319) million of dividend payments from CTC Media for the respective periods
• Investment in shares amounted to SEK 41 (-) in Q4 & SEK 315 (-) mn for the year & comprised the acquisition of Paprika Latino content production business, the LNT free-TV business in Latvia & communications operator Zitius
• CAPEX equivalent to 1% of Group net sales for the FY
• Cash flow from investing activities of SEK -115 (-29) mn in Q4 & SEK -351 (-115) mn for the year
(SEK mn) Q4
2012 Q4
2011 FY
2012 FY
2011
Cash flow from operations 583 519 1,655 1,853
Changes in working capital 238 588 261 -56
Net cash flow from operations 821 1,107 1,915 1,797
Cash flow used in investing activities -115 -29 -351 -115
Cash flow used in financing activities -411 -966 -1,274 -1,737
Net change in cash & cash equivalents
294 112 291 -55
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Financial Position
• Total borrowings of SEK 953 (1,566) mn as at 31 Dec 2012 & cash & cash equivalents of SEK 748 (470) mn
• Net debt of SEK 1 (797) mn as at 31 Dec 2012 & available liquid funds of SEK 6,448 (5,528) mn
• SEK 1,903 (1,878) mn book value of 37.9% shareholding in CTC media & public equity market value of 3,035 mn as at the last business day of 2012
(SEK mn) 31 Dec
2012 31 Dec
2011
Non-current assets 6,098 5,612
Current assets 5,595 5,668
Total assets 11,692 11,281
Shareholders’ equity 5,134 4,350
Long-term liabilities 1,751 2,168
Current liabilities 4,808 4,763
Total equity & liabilities 11,692 11,281 Net debt / EBITDA ratio
1.2 1.2 1.1
0.8 0.7
0.6 0.7
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
0
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
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Summary • Emerging Markets operations on track & performing strongly with
audience & market share gains • Positive revisions to forward expectations for Emerging Markets pay-TV
business • Viaplay online pay-TV service continues to grow strongly • Focused on challenges in Scandinavian free-TV to re-take audience &
market shares • Strengthened the executive management team • Continued strong cash generation enables strong financial position of
almost zero net debt at year end • Proposing increased ordinary dividend of SEK 10.00 krona to AGM in May
2013 • Reviewing both organic investment projects & acquisition opportunities in
both existing & new markets
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For further information, please visit www.mtg.se or contact:
MTG Investor Relations
Tel: +44 7768 440 414 / +44 7590 098 188 Email: [email protected]