multi-parameter thermal anomalies.ppt
TRANSCRIPT
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Satellite Thermal Anomalies before the MSatellite Thermal Anomalies before the MSS7.1 7.1
New Zealand Earthquake 2010New Zealand Earthquake 2010
Qin Kai
Wu Lixin
Guo Guangmeng
2011 IGARSS, 27 July 2011 • Vancouver2011 IGARSS, 27 July 2011 • Vancouver
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Background
Data and result
Physical mechanism
OutlinesOutlines
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Earthquakes are probably the most unexpected and devastating natural phenomenon on earth. From time immemorial, scientists have tried to understand it, however, forecasting and prediction of an earthquake was a remote possibility and is still today.
BackgroundBackground
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
If earthquake forewarns us before it really strikes, can we pick up any clue?
Can remote sensing technology provide us any approach to detect such clues?
BackgroundBackground
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EGU 2010, Validation of EQ Atmospheric signals
The first scientific description of thermal phenomena before earthquakes was observed in Japan and reported by John Milne(1913)
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
The first report of earthquake thermal anomalies is represented by Gazli earthquake March 19, 1984 (M=7.2).
Thermal IR image of 11.03.1984, one week before the earthquake - At the point of the intersection of the Tamdy-Tokraus and Karatau faults
BackgroundBackground
Satellite thermal IR anomaly
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
BackgroundBackgroundSource: S. A. Pulinets, D. Ouzounov, (2006), Thermal, atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies around the time of the Colima
M7.8 earthquake of 21 January 2003, Annales Geophysicae (2006) 24: 835 - 849.
Sharp increase in the daytime temperature from the epicenter for the middle of January (about one week before the earthquake).
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
BackgroundBackground Qin Kai 2010: Surface latent heat flux (SLHF) anomaly before the
Apr 14, 2010 MS7.1 Yushu earthquake
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
BackgroundBackground According to the New Zealand GNS Science, a MS 7.1 earthquake happened on the
South Island of New Zealand (43.52°S, 172.17°E) UTC on Sept. 3, 2010. It is a result of strike-slip faulting as the Pacific and Australia plates interact in the central South Island.
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Data and resultData and result
Two thermal parameters:
Skin temperature refers to the temperature of the surface layer of the earth.
SLHF can reflect water and heat exchange between the ground surface and the atmosphere, as a result of the heat absorbed or released by phase transitions (condensation, evaporation or melting) of atmospheric moisture.
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Data and resultData and result
Both of the two thermal parameters are from NCEP/NCAR assimilation data. it is generated by an analysis technique in which multi-source observations such as land surface, ship, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other sensors are accumulated into the model state by taking advantage of consistency constraints with the laws of time evolution and physical properties.
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Data and resultData and result
A spot-shaped SLHF anomaly with a high value to the northeast of the epicenter on Aug. 1, 2010.
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Local high-temperature anomalies of 3–6°C had appeared at the geothermal areas northeast of the epicenter, the center of the North Island and the southwestern South Island) on July 31 and Aug. 1, 2010.
Data and resultData and result
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
If the thermal anomaly was
only a weather effect ?
Data and resultData and result
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Observations of the weather stations showed that near the thermal anomalies area there were just low-speed relatively-stable winds
Data and resultData and result
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Infrared satellite cloud map of FY-2D satellite showed that the weather conditions were mainly sunny with sporadic haze distributions
Data and resultData and result
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
So, the local thermal anomalies about one month before the earthquake resulted neither from solar radiation enhancement of the reduced cloud (e.g., cloudy to clear), nor from a warm air mass effects, but rather most likely resulted from underground heat.
Data and resultData and result
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中国矿业大学 (北京 ) 3S 与沉陷工程 研究所 www. dgmine. c omwww. dgmine. c om
Data and resultData and result The N-S displacement components of GPS stations in New Zealand recorded a
quasi-synchronous fluctuation on July 31 and Aug. 1 2010. This is consistent with the time of the thermal anomalies, and reflects tectonic activity enhancement before the earthquake.
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中国矿业大学 (北京 ) 3S 与沉陷工程 研究所 www. dgmine. c omwww. dgmine. c om
Physical mechanismPhysical mechanism New Zealand is located on the tectonic plate boundary between the Australian
and Pacific plates. The oblique collision of the two plates causes the Pacific Plate to subduct beneath the Australian Plate, which forms a high-temperature and high-pressure zone in the lithosphere.
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中国矿业大学 (北京 ) 3S 与沉陷工程 研究所 www. dgmine. c omwww. dgmine. c om
Physical mechanismPhysical mechanism The subduction process provides sufficient energy for hot material to upwell from
mantle, which leads to abundant geothermal activity such as hot springs and volcanoes.
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
First, the long-term tectonic activity in the interface region between the Pacific and Australian plates was enhanced in the latter period of the seismogenic process, leading to rock expansion and crack propagation in the local subduction zone and hence providing abundant channels for hot material upwelling from the deep crust and mantle.
Second, hot material resulted in the gradual expansion of the region and then caused local temperatures to increase in particular zones, which are connected with subsurface fluids.
Third, the surface temperature increment affected change in the difference between the humidity of the ground and the overlying surface air masses, hence resulting in local SLHF increases.
Physical mechanismPhysical mechanism
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China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
2011 IGARSS, 27 July 2011 • Vancouver2011 IGARSS, 27 July 2011 • Vancouver
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