multi-year prediction of enso · 2018-10-09 · • 66 months: 1 nov start date, every 2-3 year...
TRANSCRIPT
Multi-year prediction of ENSO
Jing-JiaLuo¹*([email protected]),HanhNguyen¹,HarryHendon¹,OscarAlves¹,
NickDunstone²,CraigMacLachlan²
¹AustralianBureauofMeteorology(BoM)²UKMetOffice*NowatNanjingUniversityofScienceInformationandTechnology(NUIST),China
UKMODePreSys3• 16months:1Novstartdate,everyyearduring1980-2014;30members• 66months:1Novstartdate,every2-3yearduring1960-2014;10membersJAMSTECSINTEX-F• 24months:startfrom1stdayofeverymonth,1982-2012,9members.
Developingamulti-yearpredictionsystematBoM:1. ACCESS-S1:NewBoMpredictionsystembasedonUKGC2(60
kmatmosphere+25kmocean,highverticalresolutions)2. CollaborationwithUKMetOffice:DePreSys3
66months
ClimatedriftsofSSTandUV10:
Leadtime
Initialshock
Stan
darddeviatio
n
16m
16m
66m
66m
16-month prediction with 30 members
a)
b) Anomaly correlation skill
NDJ0 JFM1 MAM1 MJJ1 JAS1 SON1 NDJ1
Lead time (season)
2-yearpredictionofLaNiñaevents(SINTEX-F):
Nino3.4SSTA;D20(5˚S-5˚N,150˚-270˚E)
SSTA
(˚C) D20a(m
)
Luoetal.J.Climate2008
Nino3.4SSTA Nino3.4SSTA
SSTA
(˚C)
SSTA
(˚C)
Real time forecasts (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html)
ENSO2-yearlead
1Aug.2009
ENSO2-yearlead
1Jan.2010
Obs.
1Jun.2011 ENSO2-yearlead 1Jan.2011 ENSO
2-yearlead
（9-membermean)
2-yearpredictionofthe2010-12LaNiña(Luoetal.,2017,ScientificReports,DOI:10.1038/s41598-017-01479-9)
(the2007-09LaNiña)
(5ºS-5ºN,150ºE-160ºW)
SSTA & 2-m air temperature anomaly
Contour interval is 0.3ºC
Luo et al., J. Climate, 2008.
2-year lead ENSO prediction (SINTEX-F, 9 members):
Ensemble mean
Persistence Each member
Lead time (month)
0.5 Nino3.4 SSTA prediction (120º-170ºW, 5ºS-5ºN)
a) Year 1 (Jan-Dec)
b) Year 1-2
c) Year 1-3
d) Year 1-4
e) Year 1-5
f) Year 2-5
Prediction skill of multi-year mean SST anomaly DePreSys3
(210º-270ºE,5ºS-5ºN) Year1 Year1-3
Year1-5 Year2-5
Summary:v Largeclimatedriftsandinitialshocksexist.v ENSOcanbeskilfullypredictedouttoabout1.5-2yearsahead.v Multi-yearmeantemperatureanomaliescanbepredictedatdecadal
timescale,particularlyintheareaswithstrongwarmingtrends.v Predictionofprecipitationismorechallenging.
a) Year 1
b) Year 1-2
c) Year 1-3
d) Year 1-4
e) Year 1-5
f) Year 2-5
Prediction skill of multi-year mean surface air temperature anomaly
DJF
Prediction of surface air temperature anomaly
b) ACC skill SON
Prediction of precipitation anomaly c) ACC skill DJF
d) ACC skill SON