multidimensional poverty in developed countries:...
TRANSCRIPT
Multidimensional poverty in developed countries:
German experiences (Empirical Applications based on SOEP-Data)
Peter Krause / Christoph Jindra
Workshop on Measuring Human Development
June 14, 2013, GIZ, Eschborn, Germany
Content
I Motivation Why using multiple poverty measures?
Advantages to conventional income based poverty analyses?
II Database & Methods Database: German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP)
Methods: Multiple Poverty Index (MPI), Alkire/Foster (2011)
Multiple Dimensions (n-items) [level of aggregation]:
HH-Income (2-5/6) [H]
Health (1) [Ind]
Education (1) [Ind]
Work-Intensity (1) [H]
Housing (1) [H]
SWB (1) [Ind]
2
Content
III Results I – Review on income based poverty analyses [total population, 1984(1995) – 2011]
One-dimensional vs. multi-dimensional approaches
Longterm development, Age profiles (for periods)
Robustness (n-of items/dimensions)
Cardinal Approaches (Multiple FGT-Measures)
IV Results II – Review on income based poverty analyses [respondents population, 1994/5 – 2011]
Six Dimensions: Developments and Age profiles
Weighting (Reducing impact of income on patterns of deprivation)
3
Content
V Discussion Advantages and shortcomings of multidimensional poverty measures
Tasks for further developments:
Identification: 1st Cutoffs / 2nd cutoffs (absolute/relativ lines; time)
Weighting of dimensions
Aggregation: Correlation based poverty measures
Final Remarks
References
Many thanks to OPHI – Jose Manuel Roche.., Sabina Alkire, a.o.
for sending us a new version of their MPI-Stata-programs!!!
4
I Motivation
Motivation
Why using multiple poverty measures?
Advantages to conventional income based poverty analyses?
How can we handle multiple deprivation measured at different aggregation levels on different scaling?
Outline Empirical application
Review of conventional income poverty measures
Lonterm development & age profiles
Applications of multi-dimenional poverty measures
5
II Database & Methods
Database: German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)
6
Database Infrastructure for the German Socio-Economic Panel SOEP(core)
•Representative annual longitudinal household survey since 1984 •Regular Inclusion of new subsamples •in 2010: 10.840 households, with 28.436 persons
SOEP-IS (SOEP Innovation Sample)
•Established in 2011 (based on subsamples of SOEPcore) •Inclusion of innovative survey modules, experiments and tests
[SOEP-Pretests]
[SOEP-RS (related studies)]
II Database & Methods
Methods: Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)
7
II Database & Methods
Methods: Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)
8
II Database & Methods
Methods: Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)
9
II Database & Methods
Methods: Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)
10
II Database & Methods
Methods: Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)
11
III Results I – Income Poverty
Measures for Income related poverty items [Total population] Household-Net-Income, equivalized (rev. OECD-Scale);
price levels of 2010 (sep. adjustments for prices between East and West
till 1998);
Type of Incomes
Monthly Income (Screener)
Annual Income (previous year) Imputed Rent
Annual Income (previous year)
Type of Poverty Definitions
Cutoff: 60%-median of equiv. HH-Net-Income
Current year / anchored in time (lagged income reference level – for absolute impacts on income poverty)
Measures
Head Count [H], FGT
12
III Results I – Income Poverty
Montly & annual incomes – longterm development of poverty rates
13
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
15,0
17,5
20,0
22,5
25,0
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
percent
pov(H) HH-Inc/month pov(H) HH-Inc/p.year mpov(Hi) HH-Inc(2D)
mpov(MO) HH-Inc (2D/50) mpov(Hu) HH-Inc(2D)
III Results I – Income Poverty
Montly & annual incomes – longterm development of poverty rates
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Age
0
-08
Age
9-1
7
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
0
-08
Age
9-1
7
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
0
-08
Age
9-1
7
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
0
-08
Age
9-1
7
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
in percent
hheqr_pov60 m050_per_age h1_per_age h0_per_agemean hheqr_pov60 mean m050_per_age mean h1_per_age mean h0_per_age
1995 - 1999 2000 - 2003 2004 - 2007 2008 - 2011
III Results I – Income Poverty
Montly & annual incomes – longterm development of poverty rates
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ag
e
0-0
8
Ag
e 9
-17
Ag
e 1
8-2
5
Ag
e 2
6-3
4
Ag
e 3
5-4
4
Ag
e 4
5-5
4
Ag
e 5
5-6
4
Ag
e 6
5-7
4
Ag
e 7
5+
Ag
e
0-0
8
Ag
e 9
-17
Ag
e 1
8-2
5
Ag
e 2
6-3
4
Ag
e 3
5-4
4
Ag
e 4
5-5
4
Ag
e 5
5-6
4
Ag
e 6
5-7
4
Ag
e 7
5+
Ag
e
0-0
8
Ag
e 9
-17
Ag
e 1
8-2
5
Ag
e 2
6-3
4
Ag
e 3
5-4
4
Ag
e 4
5-5
4
Ag
e 5
5-6
4
Ag
e 6
5-7
4
Ag
e 7
5+
Ag
e
0-0
8
Ag
e 9
-17
Ag
e 1
8-2
5
Ag
e 2
6-3
4
Ag
e 3
5-4
4
Ag
e 4
5-5
4
Ag
e 5
5-6
4
Ag
e 6
5-7
4
Ag
e 7
5+
in percent
hheqr_pov60 d2m050_per_age d4m050_per_age d6m050_per_age
mean hheqr_pov60 mean d2m050_per_age mean d4m050_per_age mean d6m050_per_age
1995 - 1999 2000 - 2003 2004 - 2007 2008 - 2011
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: [Respondents, age 18+ ] Income (5) [Household level]:
Monthly Income (Screener) [currrent & anchored in time]
Annual Income (previous year) Imputed Rent [currrent & anchored in time]
Annual Income (previous year) [currrent]
Health (1) [Ind. Level]:
Handicaps in everyday activities & low health atisfaction
Education (1) [Ind. Level]:
Left school without graduation, no vocational training [casmin]
Work-Intensity (1) [Household level]:
No individual in the household working or in education at working age [laeken]
Housing(1) [Household level]:
Less than 20sqm/per>3y | bad condition | missing of sanitary equipment
Subjective Wellbeing (SWB) (1) [Ind. Level]:
Life satisfaction 0-3 [Scale 0-10]
16
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: 5 Non-Income Dimensions
17
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
percent
Dep_Health Dep_Educ Dep_WI Dep_Housing Dep_SWB
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: Income (5) [H] , Resp. 18+
18
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
15,0
17,5
20,0
22,5
25,0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
percent
hheqr_pov60 af_i5m050 af_i5h1 af_i5h0
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: Income (5) [H]
19
0
5
10
15
20
25
Age 1
8-2
5
Age 2
6-3
4
Age 3
5-4
4
Age 4
5-5
4
Age 5
5-6
4
Age 6
5-7
4
Age 7
5+
Age 1
8-2
5
Age 2
6-3
4
Age 3
5-4
4
Age 4
5-5
4
Ag
e 5
5-6
4
Age 6
5-7
4
Age 7
5+
Age 1
8-2
5
Ag
e 2
6-3
4
Age 3
5-4
4
Age 4
5-5
4
Age 5
5-6
4
Age 6
5-7
4
Age 7
5+
Age 1
8-2
5
Age 2
6-3
4
Age 3
5-4
4
Age 4
5-5
4
Age 5
5-6
4
Age 6
5-7
4
Age 7
5+
in percent
hheqr_pov60 i5m050_per mean hheqr_pov60
1995 - 1999 2000 - 2003 2004 - 2007 2008 - 2011
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: Health [Ind]
20
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
percent
Dep_Health M0-Inc&Health(mc50,w50)
H-Inc&Health(mc1[union]) H-Inc&Health(mc100,[intersection])
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: Health [Ind]
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30A
ge
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
in percent
Dep_Health_age M0-Inc&Health(mc50,w50)_age Dep_Health_ M0-Inc&Health(mc50,w50)_
1995 - 1999 2000 - 2003 2004 - 2007 2008 - 2011
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: Education [Ind]
22
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
percent
Dep_Educ M0-Inc&Educ(mc50,w50)
H-Inc&Educ(mc1[union]) H-Inc&Educ(mc100,[intersection])
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: Education [Ind]
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40A
ge
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
in percent
Dep_Educ_age M0-Inc&Educ(mc50,w50)_age Dep_Educ_ M0-Inc&Educ(mc50,w50)_
1995 - 1999 2000 - 2003 2004 - 2007 2008 - 2011
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: Work-Intensity [H]
24
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
percent
Dep_WI M0-Inc&WI(mc50,w50) H-Inc&WI(mc1[union]) H-Inc&WI(mc100,[intersection])
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: Work-Intensity [H]
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60A
ge
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
in percent
Dep_WI_age M0-Inc&WI(mc50,w50)_age Dep_WI_ M0-Inc&WI(mc50,w50)_
1995 - 1999 2000 - 2003 2004 - 2007 2008 - 2011
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: Housing [H]
26
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
percent
Dep_Housing M0-Inc&Housing(mc50,w50)
H-Inc&Housing(mc1[union]) H-Inc&Housing(mc100,[intersection])
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: Housing [H]
27
0
5
10
15
20
25A
ge
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
in percent
Dep_Housing_age M0-Inc&Housing(mc50,w50)_age
Dep_Housing_ M0-Inc&Housing(mc50,w50)_
1995 - 1999 2000 - 2003 2004 - 2007 2008 - 2011
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: Subjective Well-Being (SWB) [Ind]
28
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
percent
Dep_SWB M0-Inc&SWB(mc50,w50)
H-Inc&SWB(mc1[union]) H-Inc&SWB(mc100,[intersection])
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
Deprivation Measures: Subjective Well-Being (SWB) [Ind]
29
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10A
ge
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
Age
18
-25
Age
26
-34
Age
35
-44
Age
45
-54
Age
55
-64
Age
65
-74
Age
75
+
in percent
Dep_SWB_age M0-Inc&SWB(mc50,w50)_age Dep_SWB_ M0-Inc&SWB(mc50,w50)_
1995 - 1999 2000 - 2003 2004 - 2007 2008 - 2011
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
All Dimensions, Impact of Income (100,75,50,25,15,0 percent)
30
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
percent
i100M0 i100H(u) i100H(i) i075M0 i075H(u) i075H(i)
i050M0 i050H(u) i050H(i) i025M0 i025H(u) i025H(i)
i015M0 i015H(u) i015H(i) i000M0 i000H(u) i000H(i)
IV Results II – Multidimensional Poverty
All Dimensions, Impact of Income ([M0] 100,75,50,25,15,0 %)
31
-1,0
1,0
3,0
5,0
7,0
9,0
11,0
13,0
15,0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
percent
i100M0 i075M0 i050M0 i025M0 i015M0 i000M0
V Discussion
Multidimensional poverty measures – Advantages
Ability to put together items at different aggregation levels: individual / household / region
Therefore we can overcome shortfalls in established poverty analyses:
Working poor
Intra-household variation of poverty (due to pool-assumption)
We can include variables at regional levels to combine opportunities and constraints [health, labor market, education system] with „visible“ indicators of deprivation for inividuals and households
We are able to include subjective measures to show us, whether the existing frames are able to provide us with sufficient chances [constraints]
32
V Discussion
Tasks for further developments: Identification: 1st Cutoffs / 2nd cutoffs (absolute/relativ lines; time)
Problems of cardinality
Weighting of dimensions
Aggregation: Correlation based poverty measures
(Final ) Remark The main difference between income-based poverty analyses and
multidimensional poverty approaches are not the number of dimensions, which are taken into account –
The main differences is wether we adress all kind of welfare aspects to one monetary unit (which is easier to handle for measurement), or whether we deal with different dimensions and different measures at the same time.
Again ... many thanks to OPHI – Jose Manuel Roche, Sabina Alkire!!!
33
Thank You!