multiple co-benefits of a fundamental energy transformation
TRANSCRIPT
Nebojša NakićenovićInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
Technische Universität Wien xx
Multiple Co-Benefits of a Fundamental
Energy TransformationPerspectives from the Global Energy Assessment
ALPS International Symposium on “The frontiers of scenarios for climate
change research and assessment”, Nadao Hall, Tokyo – 9 February 2011
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IIASAIIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysisand its international partners present the
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
The Global Energy Assessment
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● Initiated in 2006 and involves >300 CLAs and LAs and >200 Anonymous Reviewers
● Peer-review coordinated by Review Editors is complete - ongoing responses and revisions.
● Final report (Cambridge Univ. Press) in June 2011 followed by vigorous dissemination
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www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Towards a more Sustainable Future
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Integration of Knowledge Clusters
● Cluster I characterizes nature and magnitude of challenges, and express them in selected indicators
● Cluster II reviews existing and future resource and technology options
● Cluster III integrates Cluster II elements into systems, and links these to indicators from Cluster I
● Cluster IV assesses policy options, and specifically identifies policy packages that are linked to scenarios meeting the needs, again in an iterative fashion.
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Sponsoring Organizations
International OrganizationsGEF
IIASA
UNDESA
UNDP
UNEP
UNIDO
ESMAP (World Bank)
Industry groupsFirst Solar
Petrobras
WBCSD
WEC
Governments/AgenciesAustria - multi-year
European Union
Germany
Italy
Norway
Sweden - multi-year
USA (EPA, DoE)
FoundationsUN Foundation
Climate Works Foundation
Global Environment & Technology Foundation
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Access to energy and ecosystem services
(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)
Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating
climate change brings multiple co-benefits
Energy transformations require R&D and
rapid technology diffusion & deployment
Sustained energy investments are needed
and would result in multiple co-benefits
Global Energy Transformations
Nakicenovic #7 2010
Food for a Week, Darfur Refugees, Chad© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Source: Menzel, 2005
Nakicenovic #8 2010
Food for a Week, Germany© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Source: Menzel, 2005
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Billions of people:
Abject poverty: 1.3
Poor: 0.6
Less poor: 1.4
Middle class: 1.6
Rich: 1.2
3.3
2.8
Mapping Energy AccessFinal energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density
Source: Gruebler et al, 2009
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Health Benefits of Pollution Control(loss of stat. life expectancy - PM)
Source: Dentener et al, 2009
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Data: NASA 1880-2010
Earth is Warming
Global warming predicted(Sawyer, Nature 1972,
Broecker, Science 1975)
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IPCC AR4 SRES A1B
Source: Realclimate 2010
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Global Carbon Emissions
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Access to energy and ecosystem services
(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)
Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating
climate change brings multiple co-benefits
Energy transformations require R&D and
rapid technology diffusion & deployment
Sustained energy investments are needed
and would result in multiple co-benefits
Global Energy Transformations
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Biomass
~500 GtC
Biomass
~500 GtC
Soils
~1,500 GtC
Atmosphere
850 GtC
Oil
~250 GtgCN. Gas
~250 GtC
Oil
~250 GtCN. Gas
~250GtC
Unconventional Hydrocarbons
15,000 to 40,000 GtC
Coal
~ 12,000 GtC
Unconventional.
Gas
~1000 GtC
UnconventonalOil
~1150 GtgC
Global Carbon Reservoirs
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Estimated shale gas resource
14,803 TCF ≈ 15,600 EJ
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Pri
mary
En
erg
y (
EJ)
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Global Primary Energy
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Microchip
Commercial
Television
engine
engineElectric
Vacuum
energy
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Pri
mary
En
erg
y (
EJ)
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
Global Primary Energy
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Microchip
Commercial
Television
engine
engineElectric
Vacuum
energy
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1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
EJ Primary Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
GEA -
Efficiency
GEA -Mix
GEA-Supply
WBGU
RCP 3-PD
WEC-C1
[r]evolution
REMI
NS-RECIPE
ETP BLUE
POLES
REMINS-ADAM
MERGE-ETL
Global Primary Energy
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Access to energy and ecosystem services
(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)
Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating
climate change brings multiple co-benefits
Energy transformations require R&D and
rapid technology diffusion & deployment
Sustained energy investments are needed
and would result in multiple co-benefits
Global Energy Transformations
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Example of savings by reconstruction
Reconstruction according
to the passive house
principle
-90%15 kWh/(m²a)over 150 kWh/(m²a)
Before reconstruction
Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006
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Area Occupied by Various Transport Modes
Source: WBCSD, 2005
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Source: EPRI
Energy SuperGrid and MagLev
Potential Synergies between New Energy and
Transport Infrastructures: Asian “Supergrid”
Super Cables Super Cables
Power linesPower lines
Electric Power Research institute ©
Source:
Y. Yamagata, NIES. 2010
MAGLEV
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Access to energy and ecosystem services
(a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)
Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating
climate change brings multiple co-benefits
Energy transformations require R&D and
rapid technology diffusion & deployment
Sustained energy investments are needed
and would result in multiple co-benefits
Global Energy Transformations
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Co-Benefits of Energy Investments
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Co-Benefits of Energy Investments
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Trade-Offs & Co-Benefits
● With GEA Scenarios: Explore implications of
global climate mitigation for local energy
security concerns and air pollution control
Explore development of security indicators in
2oC climate scenarios
Assess potential economic co-benefits of
different combinations of security and climate
policies
Multi-Criteria Analysis to understand policy
interactions (security/pollution/climate)
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Joint Modeling Framework
Systems engineering
global energy model
(MESSAGE)
Global climate model
(MAGICC)
Multi-criteria analysis tool
(MCAA)
NAM
PAO
WEU
EEU
FSU
MEA
AFR
LAM
SAS
PAS
CPA
1 NAM North America 2 LAM Latin America & The Caribbean 3 WEU Western Europe 4 EEU Central & Eastern Europe
5 FSU Former Soviet Union 6 MEA Middle East & North Africa 7 AFR Sub-Saharan Africa 8 CPA Centrally Planned Asia & China
9 SAS South Asia 10 PAS Other Pacific Asia 11 PAO Pacific OECD
OECD
REFS
ALM
ASIA
Source: IIASA
Source: O’Neill, B.C., K. Riahi, and I. Keppo , 2010 (PNAS)Source: IIASA
Create wide range of scenarios:
Different stringency for regional energy import constraints
Different levels of climate mitigation
Different stringency of pollution control
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Energy Transformationsdepend on the ranking of policy priorities
Mid-term GHG/pollutant
emissions levels (2050)
BestWorst
Regional energy trade
(share of PE)
Diversity of trade (index)
0% 100%
100%
Low
X trill
0%
High
Y trillTotal energy system cost
More preferable, but
more difficult
+80% -80%
Long-term climate target
(prob. of 2 ºC warming)Environment
Energy
Security
Economy
Pollution and health
impacts (years of life lost) High Low
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IIASAIIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org