multiple parameter monitoring and seismic precursory ...multiple parameter monitoring and seismic...

mulTiPle PArAmeTer moniTorinG And seismic Precursory PhenomenoloGy in unusuAl AnimAl behAviour in wesTern PiedmonTG. de liso1,2,3, c. fidani1,4, A. viotto1

1Seismic Precursors Study Center (SPSC), Associazione Culturale “Le Nuove Muse”, Torre Pellice, Italy2Istituto di Alta formazione artistica e musicale “G.F. Ghedini”, Cuneo Italy 3Voce Pinerolese, Pinerolo, Italy4Central Italy Electromagnetic Network, CIEN, Fermo, Italy

Introduction. The unusual animal behaviours, often observed before earthquakes in a moderate seismic area in Western Piedmont (NW Italy), and the observations of anomalies in some physical parameters, induced the authors to create the “Seismic Precursors Study Centre”(SPSC). The SPSC is placed in de Liso’s house, in Torre Pellice (44°49’235’’ N, 7°123’04’’ E, Western Piedmont, NW Italy) at 699 m above sea level on Vandalino Mountain, not too far from an abandoned iron mine, near a particular “geological sanctuary” on “Castelluzzo” peak, which are rich in augen-gneiss, of eruptive origin, biotite, ophiolite, zeolite, pechblenda and “Luserna Stone” (gneiss) (Compagnoni, 1981).

The place is also near a forest, at a distance of 70 m from the Biglione creek, 600 m from a graphite mine, 12 km far from talc mines in Prali’s area. The recent classification of the seismic risk in this area is 3S, with a moderate seismic activity. The area on Vandalino Mountain magnifies magnetic, electric and radioactive variations, due to interesting geological structures, like an intrusive volcano with geothermal activity, gas emission, radioactive decay, water pH variations in creeks and lakes, soil temperature increase, magnetic declination anomalies, Earthquake Lights (EQL) and infra-sounds. Some local unusual animal behaviours can suggest the occurrence of a local seismic event with epicentre distance ≤ 100 km.

Observations of animals, instrumentation and monitoring. The observation of animal behaviours began in 1991 when some unusual recurrences in animal behaviour were noted to occur before earthquakes. The study of animal behaviour is conducted by the first author with the following modalities:

• continuous observation of the behaviour of cats and dogs living in SPSC (in de Liso’s house) and of insects and arachnids inside and outside de Liso’s house;

• very frequent observation of the behaviour of wild animals, but this is season dependent;• continuous hearing of languages of domestic and wild animals, on Mountain Vandalino,

near and far from SPSC;• a comparison with other studies from different regions and with sporadic observations

by people in Torre Pellice, Cavour and in areas of Pinerolo and Cuneo. These observations were supported by a multi-parameter monitoring, gradually more

complex since 1998 (de Liso, 2011): magnetic induction and declination, β and γ emission, Radon222 emission, temperature in subsoil and in Biglione’s water, pH of water, infrasounds. Since 2010, a station for ground electrical currents (Viotto, 2010) has been operative in Luserna San Giovanni (44°48’59”N, 7°14’18.77”E°, Western Piedmont), with monitoring of the electric field, by mean of an electric field detector made by Andrea Viotto, and seismic waves, by mean of a gravity-meter with an hanging pendulum (Viotto, 2011); after 2012, a station of the Central Italy Electromagnetic Network (CIEN) was installed in SPSC (Fidani, 2012). Characteristic ELF signals are monitored in relation to seismic activity (Fidani, 2011). This study produced results similar to those observed by Tsuneji Rikitake (Rikitake, 1968, 1987).

Unusual animal behaviour before earthquakes. Even in case of a moderate local seismic activity, the various precursors and animal reactions appear to be connected with geological structures. When the epicentre distance to SPSC is inferior to 20–25 km, with a low magnitude (M ≤ 1), some unusual animal behaviours was always noted, a few days, a few hours and a few seconds before the seismic event, with different modalities for the three cases described

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below. But the same unusual animal behaviours before earthquakes with epicentre distances to SPSC progressively increasing were observed if there was also a progressive increase in the magnitude.

The anomalous animal behaviours was observed with the following modalities:1. particular vocal language in a tripartite sequence (in 3.2, 3.3);2. non-vocal anomalous behaviour different from the usual pattern (in 4.1);3. problems to health and safety (in 5.1). Particular vocal language in a tripartite sequence: animal alarms with shrills and high

sounds. The acoustic perception of vocal alarms can regard a large area, it gives concise information and it is easier to note. The animal vocal alarm is a particular vocal language, usually directed to other members of the same species, sometimes to other species. It is an individual answer to the danger or a co-ordinate answer of the leading animal to the same danger.

The first author has individuated a particular tripartite sequence in the vocal alarms of do-mestic animals and birds: phase A, lasting up to 2 hours, with shrills and high sounds, from 30 minutes until 10 hours before the earthquake; then, when cries stop simultaneously, phase B follows, with a strange and worry silence; finally phase C, with animal cries normally 20-40

seconds before the earthquake, a few times just 5-10 seconds before, generally stopping few seconds before the shock. The phase C is corroborated by the observations of other research-ers in case of other earthquakes (Rikitake, 1978, 1982).

The vocal animal alarms beginning up to 10 hours before local earthquakes, sometimes before distant earthquakes if the future magnitude is great-er, are contemporaneous to the drastic reduction of variations in intensity and declination of the magnetic field and of radio-activity values. So, Figs. 1a and 1b resume an interesting rela-tion between seismic epicentre distances to SPSC, magnitude and percentage of unusual an-

Fig. 1 – Percentage of vocal animal alarms in phase A and C, in relation to epicentre distance to SPSC.

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imal behaviours, in relation to domestic animal cries and to bird songs, noted before the same seismic event. Obviously, unusual animal behaviours can be only taken into account for those species whose normal behaviour is known.

Statistical study of the behaviour of dogs and cats. A statistical study of unusual animal behaviours before earthquakes in Western Piedmont has been completed. The early warnings from dogs and cats were considered before 39 earthquakes around SPSC. The earthquakes were chosen depending on magnitudes and distances, approximately satisfying the Dobrovolsky condition (Dobrovolsky, 1979): they are shown in Tab. 1. A total of 55 early warnings consisting of 39 dog cries and 16 cats hiding were observed. They occurred during phase A, therefore we are considering a smaller time interval with respect to observations of different animals in all the phases of past works. For this reason, frequency distribution was calculated with respect to simple time t, as it is shown in Fig. 2a on the left. The shape of this is well described by a Weibull distribution (Weibull, 1951). Following Rikitake (2003), a function R(t) = 1 – F(t) was defined, where F(t) is the cumulative probability of an earthquake occurring during a period from 0 to t. A plot of Ln (Ln (1/R(t))) versus Ln (t) is shown in Fig. 2a on the right. The straight-line fitting in the figure, neglecting the lower value of Ln (t) for which a different distribution is probably valid (Rikitake, 2003), confirms that the distribution can roughly be governed by a Weibull distribution with coefficients K = 0.00033 and m = 4.1. Mean and standard deviation can be calculated through the Gamma function respectively

E(t) = [k/(m+1)]-1/(m+1) Γ[(m+2)/(m+1)];

σ = E(t) {Γ[(m+3)/(m+1)] / Γ2[(m+2)/(m+1)] – 1}½

Fig. 2 – Statistical distribution in phase A of anomalous behaviours of dogs and cats.

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producing E(t) = 6.1 hours and σ = 1.4 hours, anticipating of some hours the general animal precursors (Rikitake, 2003), but according to previous results for dogs and cats (Rikitake, 1982).

Data from the phase C were excluded as they were considered to reveal animal agitation at the time of P-wave arrival. The early time distribution was also plotted with respect to the earthquake magnitudes and depths (see Fig. 2b). For dogs and cats behaviours, early times resulted independent from the earthquake magnitude, even if small earthquakes can alarm dogs and cats later with respect to greater earthquakes. Such small earthquakes have generally greater depths than small earthquakes which alarms dogs and cats around the average (see Fig. 2b on the right). Finally, great earthquakes influence dog and cat behaviours from any depths around the average early time.

Non-vocal anomalous behaviour different from the usual pattern. When the rise in temperature, in the emission of gas, or in magnetic declination are great, we can observe evident anomalous animal behaviours, that are reactions to save theirselves.

a. The most evident non-vocal animal behaviours is the advanced awakening from hibernation, probably due to a rise in temperature or to emissions of dangerous gas. Winter seismic activity is a better forewarning of the first shock because the precursor increase in soil and water temperature is well remarked. An increase in temperature of about 5-6 °C above the mean seasonal values at SPSC was often recorded before a seism. This can explain the premature awakening of animals in hibernation (bats, insects, amphibious and reptiles) and premature larva development (de Liso, 2010). This unusual animal behaviour is a short temporal term precursor, usually 12-15 hours before. Damages to people and animal health were observed in Torre Pellice, in connection with measured high radon values: especially dermatological effects were reported at SPSC when the radioactive emission was much higher than the local average values.

b. Unusual flight behaviour with magnetic sudden variations: it is very important to individuate the right moment of the sudden magnetic commencement because it is the moment of unusual flight behaviour observations. SPSC observations confirm that when geomagnetic perturbation is not due to sun activity, but is due to the magnetic permeability variation of rocks under stress, we can observe unusual flight patterns of some birds and a few problems of balance for dogs, cats and also some human subjects. The sudden beginning can be followed, for up to a few days before a seism, by the variation of the absolute value of δ declination angle of local North-South axis and by the variation in the intensity of the geomagnetic field. In these occasions, the needles of the SPSC compasses showed a dampened oscillating motion around a new local North-South axes. At the beginning of δ oscillation, due to seismic activity, unusual flight behaviour was often noted. During this first moment it was noted that domestic animals are nervous and insects and arachnids are more aggressive, until magnetic variations are great. Among the animals that feel this magnetic variations more frequently, with anomalous flying patterns, there are female black-birds and bees (de Liso, 2010).

c. Animals seek safety: in phase C farm animals seek safety from cow-houses, barns, pens or from other buildings collapsing. Animal shrills and their agitation can alarm people, so this animal behaviour has often saved people. For example, before the earthquake of April 2nd, 1808, at 17:43 LT, with magnitude M = 5.7, with epicentre in Luserna San Giovanni a woman of San Germano and her sons were saved by the cows cries; also other people inside houses saved themselves, thanks to the agitation of their cows a few seconds before the seismic shock. But also during phase A this kind of anomalous behaviour can be observed. A local earthquake in Val Pellice, occurred on May 28th, 2008, during a severe rainstorm, caused at the same time four landslides: two on Vandalino Montain, one at Rorà and one at Villar Pellice, killing four people. Half an hour before the seismic event and landslides, a male goat saved all his female goats,

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guiding them away from their pen, which was subsequently destroyed. He returned with his herd the following day.

d. The uunusual reptile, limacidae behaviour and pH water: while the majority of animal species seeks safety outside, a few species, such as reptiles (vipers, snakes), generally seek safety going inside houses 3-5 hours before a local earthquake. They yearn for dry places; if they enter inside, they take shelter in wool blankets. The same behaviour was noted at SPSC in toads, frogs, stag beetles and even Limacidae. It is interesting to observe how some of these species are behaving strangely as they usually like humidity whereas wool is hydro-repellent. Two days before the seismic event of October 3rd 2012, epicentre in Sampeyre (16 km to SPSC) and M = 3.9, the Limacidae were moving in the fields standing on a fifth or their foot: they were probably escaping from the humid ground. The ground water pH was 10.5, so it is possible to suppose that the new chemical and physical properties of the soil water were the cause of this unusual behaviour.

Problems to health and safety.a. Radon222 ionization, high β and γ emission: sometimes we have recorded high values of

β and γ a few days before earthquakes: two days before an earthquake of M = 4.6 located in Incisa Scapaccino (August 21st, 2000), a 56.0 µS/h of radioactivity (β+γ particles) and radon values of 1,517 Bq/m3 in air (α particles) were recorded near Biglione creek and in basement of SPSC. The same day of the seism, a viper and an unknown snake climbed at the first floor by the run-ladder. Three days after high radioactive emission, many insects and arachnids were found dead in SPSC basement, in the cellar and the garden. Damages to people and animal health were observed, in connection with measured high radon values, like rapid evolution of pathologies, especially dermatological effects and pneumonias by contact. In Fig. 3 radon monitoring values in SPSC for the January-December 2012 period are reported. The high radon emission could generate serious problems to safety (cancer, problems to lungs...).

Fig. 3 – Radon emission in SPSC (2012) and anomalous animal behaviours.

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b. Rise in temperature, gas emission and death of fish, frogs and fresh water shrimps: sometimes we have recorded an increase in the water temperature of Biglione creek and an emission of warm and dangerous gas (radon, sulphurous gasses, hydrocyanic anhydrite, ozone..) that caused fish deaths. For example, three days before the two earthquakes of M = 4.6, 19:14 LT, and M = 4.8, 19:15 LT, both occurred the August 21st, 2000, in the provinces of Asti and Alessandria, it was reported in Torre Pellice the death of all fishes in a little artificial lake fed by the Biglione creek, whose temperature increase was of 6 °C, temperature recorded in the night. Also some frogs and fresh water shrimps died near the Biglione.

c. Zeolite in white dust and dehydration action on biological structures, the oxidative phenomena on gneiss surfaces parallel to the ground: before earthquakes of magnitude ≥4 and epicentrum distance ≤100 km a white dust, containing zeolite, came out from rock cracks, near Biglione, not too far from mines on Vandalino. The dehydrating action of zeolite was deadly to Limacidae and to earth-worms. We suppose that also the oxidative phenomena on gneiss surfaces parallel to the ground can give problems to biological structures.

Conclusions. Even if Valle Pellice is a moderate seismic area, we can observe several phenomena regarding unusual animal behaviours and human diseases. The comparison “a posteriori” with local seismic activity can be resumed in the following points:

• unusual animal behaviours are reported a few days before a seismic event, contempora-neously to the magnetic sudden commencement;

• a particular tripartite sequence of vocal language of animal was noted: Phase A, lasting up to 2 hours, 0.5-10 hours before moderate, local seismic activity; phase B characterized by the absence of alarm calls and finally phase C immediately before (20-40 seconds) the seismic shock characterized by alarm signals probably associated to particular infra-sound emission;

• oxidative phenomena on plant structures and on ferromagnetic rocks, occurring along gneiss surfaces parallel to the ground;

• dust deposition, especially alluminates, silicon-alluminates, zeolites;• gas emission, especially sulphurous gas, hydrocyanic anhydrite, ozone, deduced by the

olfactory perception of people living in the countryside;• increased emission of Radon222 in the air above average values (α particles), and an

increase of β and γ emission before the seismic shocks;• variation in the pH values of water, on meadows and in rivers;• variations in the magnetic declination and magnetic intensity;• rise in the temperature in the subsoil contemporaneously to increased radon and gas

emission.

Statistics of early strange behaviours in dogs and cats confirm previous results obtained from other observations, in this case it can be stated very precisely that the average warning time is about 6 hours. In contrast to past results, a little magnitude dependence occurs for small earthquakes. These particularities are probably due to the way of collecting information, which permits observations from a restricted area to be correlated to small local seismic activity, contrarily to data relative to strong earthquakes from other regions of the world. The observations described, also in case of small earthquakes, regard areas near mines, near the top of Mount Vandalino. Scientific knowledge of pre-seismic phenomena is still in its infancy. Certainly, unusual animal behaviours can give a significant contribution to increase the sensibility to environmental changes. Acknowledgements. Angelo Agostino, Alberto Carpinteri, Giulio Fanti, Giampaolo Giuliani, Francesco Lattarulo, Giovanni Martinelli, Lisa Pierotti, Riccardo Sandrone, Alessandro Vaio, Paolo Volpe.

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multiple parameter monitoring and seismic precursory ...multiple parameter monitoring and seismic...

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