municipality of north grenville long-term population ......municipality of . north grenville ....

Municipality of North Grenville

Long-Term Population, Housing, and Employment

Forecast

Final Report

July 12, 2017

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\North Grenville\2016 GMS\North Grenville Long-Term Growth Forecast Study - Final.docx

Contents

Page

Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... (i)

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 Terms of Reference ................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 Growth Forecast Approach and Methodology ......................................... 1-1

1.2.1 Municipal-wide Growth Forecast .................................................. 1-1

2. Demographic, Economic, and Socio-Economic Profile ...................................... 2-1 2.1 Housing Activity ...................................................................................... 2-1

2.1.1 Housing Growth ........................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Residential Building Permit Activity, 2009 to 2016 .................................. 2-3

2.2.1 Housing Mix by Unit Type ............................................................ 2-5 2.2.2 Housing Occupancy by Unit Type ................................................ 2-6

2.3 Population Trends ................................................................................... 2-8 2.3.1 Population Growth ........................................................................ 2-8 2.3.2 Historical Population Trends by Age .......................................... 2-10

2.4 Socio-Economic Trends ........................................................................ 2-11 2.4.1 Education Attainment ................................................................. 2-11

2.5 Employment Trends .............................................................................. 2-12 2.5.1 Macro-Economic Trends and Regional Competitiveness ........... 2-12 2.5.2 Historical Employment Growth in North Grenville ...................... 2-14 2.5.3 Employment vs. Labour Force ................................................... 2-16

2.6 Conclusions .......................................................................................... 2-18

3. Residential and Non-Residential Land Supply and Servicing Capacity ............. 3-1 3.1 Residential Land Supply and Servicing Capacity .................................... 3-1

3.1.1 Urban Housing Supply in the Development Approvals Process and Residential Infill ....................................................... 3-1

3.1.2 Urban Housing Supply on Inactive Vacant Designated Greenfield Lands .......................................................................... 3-5

3.1.3 Potential Future Rural Housing Supply in the Development Approvals Process ....................................................................... 3-6

3.1.4 Water and Wastewater Service Capacity (In Housing Unit Equivalents) ................................................................................. 3-7

3.2 Non-Residential Land Supply ................................................................. 3-8 3.2.1 Vacant Employment Lands .......................................................... 3-9 3.2.2 Supply of Serviced and/or Serviceable Vacant Employment

Lands ......................................................................................... 3-12 3.2.3 Geographic Location of Developed and Vacant Employment

Land Supply ............................................................................... 3-14 3.2.4 Market Choice Requirements ..................................................... 3-16

4. Long-Term Population and Housing Growth Forecasts ..................................... 4-1 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 4-1


4.2 North Grenville Population and Housing Forecast, 2016 to 2031 – Base Case Residential Growth Scenario ................................................ 4-2 4.2.1 Allocation of Population and Housing Growth by Urban and

Rural Area (Base Case Residential Growth Scenario) ................. 4-5 4.3 North Grenville Population and Housing Forecast, 2016 to 2031 –

Alternative Residential Growth Scenario................................................. 4-8 4.3.1 Allocations of Population and Housing Growth by Urban and

Rural Area (Alternative Residential Growth Scenario) ............... 4-11 4.4 Urban Residential Buildout ................................................................... 4-13 4.5 Observations ......................................................................................... 4-14

5. Long-Term Employment Growth Forecasts ....................................................... 5-1 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 5-1

5.1.1 Employment Growth Forecast Scenarios, 2016 to 2031 .............. 5-1 5.1.2 Allocation of Employment Growth by Urban and Rural Area ........ 5-6 5.1.3 Urban Employment Lands Buildout Forecast ............................... 5-8

6. Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 6-1

Appendix A – Residential and Non-Residential Supply Information .............................A-1

Appendix B – Supplementary Residential Growth Forecast Information ......................B-1

Appendix C – Supplementary Employment Growth Forecast Information ................... C-1

(i)


Executive Summary The Municipality of North Grenville retained Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson) in the fall of 2016 to update the Municipality’s Official Plan (O.P.) population, housing and employment growth allocations by settlement area and remaining rural area to the year 2031. This report represents a key background document to the Municipality’s O.P. review exercise as well as other planning, municipal service and municipal finance studies, including the Municipality’s 2017 development charges (D.C.) update.

In accordance with the Terms of Reference (T.O.R.) for this assignment, this report provides an examination of the following:

• Recent regional and local demographic, economic and socio-economic trends which are anticipated to influence the amount, type, location and timing of residential and non-residential growth throughout the Municipality of North Grenville;

• Net developable residential and non-residential urban land supply by development approval and municipal servicing status;

• Long-term municipal-wide population, housing and employment growth scenarios to 2031 and ultimate buildout of designated serviceable urban lands; and

• An allocation of each municipal-wide growth scenario by Urban serviced area and remaining rural area by 2031 and buildout.

The 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis forecasts slow long-term population and employment growth within U.C.L.G. This relatively modest long-term growth outlook is largely as a result of an aging population labour force as well as declining economic growth in the manufacturing sector within eastern Ontario and throughout the Province as a whole.

While the eastern Ontario economic was hit particularly hard by the 2008/2008 global economic downturn, the regional economy has experience a gradually recovery since 2011, most notably in employment sectors concentrated in service and knowledge-based sectors. More locally, the Municipality of North Grenville has also experienced steady employment growth over the past five years. Between 2011 and 2016, North Grenville added a total of 480 jobs1 to its employment base, largely in the retail sector.

1 Excluding no fixed place of work employment

(ii)


The summary of recent population, housing and employment growth trends provided in Chapter 2 herein indicates that the gradual regional economic recovery within the National Capital Region has been a key driver of recent net migration to North Grenville. In turn, stronger net migration in North Grenville has generated higher local population, housing and employment growth over the past five years relative to prior Census periods between 2001 and 2011.

Over the next fifteen years, it is anticipated that continued economic growth in the National Capital Region will stimulate further net migration to North Grenville, and ultimately future housing and local employment growth to the area. While it is likely that the regional economy could experience one or more economic downturns over the 2016 to 2031 planning horizon, the 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis appears to represents conservative view of future long-term population and employment growth potential in the Municipality of North Grenville. While it is prudent to not overstate long-term residential and non-residential development trends, it also important for the purposes of long-term planning, infrastructure and municipal service delivery not to understate the long-term population and employment growth outlook for North Grenville. Accordingly, two long-term residential and non-residential growth scenarios have been developed for the Municipality of North Grenville. Scenario 1, Base Case Growth Scenario is premised on the 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis population and employment allocation for North Grenville, while Scenario 2, Alternative Growth Scenario reflects a slightly higher long-term residential and non-residential growth outlook for the municipality in accordance with our review of recent development trends and future growth drivers within the local and surrounding regional market area.

A summary of the two long-term population growth scenarios is provided below in Figure E-1. In summary, the Alternative Residential Growth Scenario forecasts moderately higher population growth for North Grenville relative to the Base Case Residential Growth Scenario.

(iii)


Figure E-1 Municipality of North Grenville

Comparison of Base Case and Alternative Population Forecast

A summary of the two long-term employment growth scenarios is also provided below in Figure E-2. In summary, the Alternative Employment Growth Scenario forecasts considerably higher employment growth for North Grenville relative to the Base Case Employment Scenario in accordance with recent economic trends and forecast employment prospects by major sector within the municipality’s designated employment lands, C.B.D. and other non-residential areas.

13,90014,500

15,500

17,700

18,70019,300

16,900

17,900

19,400

21,100

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

Historical Base Case Alternative Residential Growth

Note: Figures include net Census undercount of approx. 2%Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

(iv)


Figure E-2 Municipality of North Grenville

Comparison of Base Case Employment Scenario and Alternative Employment Scenario

3,8804,040

4,5805,060

5,020 5,000 4,970

5,2105,500

5,820

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tota

l Em

ploy

men

t

Historical Base Case Alternative Employment Scenario

Note: Excludes no fixed place of work employment.

1


1. Introduction 1.1 Terms of Reference

The Municipality of North Grenville retained Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson) in the fall of 2016 to update the Municipality’s Official Plan (O.P.) population, housing and employment growth allocations by settlement area and remaining rural area to the year 2031. This report represents a key background document to the Municipality’s O.P. review exercise as well as other planning, municipal service and municipal finance studies, including the Municipality’s 2017 development charges (D.C.) update.

In accordance with the Terms of Reference (T.O.R.) for this assignment, this report provides an examination of the following:

• Recent regional and local demographic, economic and socio-economic trends which are anticipated to influence the amount, type, location and timing of residential and non-residential growth throughout the Municipality of North Grenville;

• Net developable residential and non-residential urban land supply by development approval and municipal servicing status;

• Long-term municipal-wide population, housing and employment growth scenarios to 2031 and ultimate buildout of designated serviceable urban lands; and

• An allocation of each municipal-wide growth scenario by Urban Serviced area and remaining rural area by 2031 and buildout.

A further discussion regarding the long-term growth forecast approach is provided below.

1.2 Growth Forecast Approach and Methodology

1.2.1 Municipal-wide Growth Forecast

The long-term (i.e. 2031) municipal-wide population and employment growth forecast for North Grenville has been developed in accordance with the 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis.1 In reviewing the Leeds Grenville County

1 Leeds Grenville Official Plan Growth & Settlement Analysis. Final Report. Hemson Consulting Ltd. August 6, 2014.

2


population, housing and employment forecast allocation for North Grenville, consideration has been given to recent economic, socio-economic and demographic trends, and development patterns which are anticipated to influence the amount, type and location of residential/non-residential development over the long-term planning horizon. In accordance with available data, the results of the 2016 Census has been incorporated into our review of recent demographic trends and forecast long-term population, housing and employment growth trends.

Population and Housing Forecast

The residential growth forecast and allocation approach utilized herein is based on the Household Formation Methodology.1 This approach focuses on the rate of historical housing construction by settlement area, adjusted to incorporate factors such as servicing constraints and available housing supply. The population is then forecast by developing assumptions on average household size by unit type, taking into consideration the higher average occupancy of new units and the decline in persons per unit over time within existing households. Forecast housing growth by structure type is based on historical housing demand, municipal servicing, housing units in the development approvals process as well as provincial, County and local policy considerations. The population and housing growth forecast is provided in 5-year increments from 2016 to 2031 as well as urban buildout.

A key focus of this study relates to the allocation, phasing and ultimate urban residential and non-residential buildout within the Municipality’s urban areas, i.e. Kemptville Service Area (Service Area 1) and designated urban lands outside Service Area 1 (Service Area 2). An allocation of remaining rural lands to the year 2031, has also been provided. The residential buildout forecast is premised on a detailed review of urban land supply in active plans, residential intensification opportunities, as well as a review of approved, committed and future water and wastewater servicing in designated urban areas.

Employment Forecast

The long-term employment forecast is partially based on the activity rate method.2 This approach links future employment growth with forecast population growth, subject to a

1 Projection Methodology Guideline: A Guide to Projecting Population, Housing Need, Employment and Related Land Requirements, 1995, pg. 80, Simpler Methodology. 2 An activity rate is defined as the number of local jobs in a municipality, divided by the resident population.

3


number of broad-based and localized demographic/economic factors. Historical employment trends and forecast employment growth prospects by major employment sector are also considered in the development of the long-term non-residential growth forecast. The employment forecast is based on full-time and part-time employment by place of work, using historical Census data (2001 to 2011) as well as other available information sources (i.e. EMSI employment data, etc.).

When forecasting long-term employment, it is important to understand how the local employment base is impacted by forecast population growth within North Grenville. Population-related employment (i.e. retail, schools, service, commercial) is generally automatically attracted to locations convenient to local residents. Typically, as the population grows the demand for population-related employment also increases to service the needs of the local community. As such, forecast commercial and institutional activity rates are based on historical activity rates and employment trends, as well as future commercial and institutional employment prospects within a local and regional context. Similar to population-related employment, home-based employment and employment by no fixed place of work address (N.F.P.O.W.) is also anticipated to generally increase in direct proportion to population growth.1

Industrial employment, on the other hand, is not closely linked to population growth and tends to be more influenced by broader market conditions (i.e. economic competitiveness, transportation access, distance to employment markets), as well as local site characteristics, such as servicing capacity, highway access and exposure, site size/configuration, physical conditions and site location. Accordingly, industrial employment is not necessarily anticipated to increase in direct proportion to population growth, and is based on the following key economic indicators:

• macro-economic and regional employment trends; • historical industrial employment growth and absorption rates within North

Grenville and the surrounding market area; • anticipated regional and local economic drivers of industrial and office

commercial employment growth; • quality of available serviced and serviceable industrial land supply; and • A review of future development prospects by geographic area.

1 Due to further advancements in telecommunications technology, it is anticipated that the municipality’s home-based employment activity rates may increase over the forecast period.

1


2. Demographic, Economic, and Socio-Economic Profile

This chapter provides a review of recent housing, demographic, socio-economic and economic trends in the Municipality of North Grenville within the context of County-wide and provincial trends. Specific attention has been given to recent real estate and housing market trends, as well as key socio-economic and economic conditions which are anticipated to influence future residential and non-residential settlement patterns over the next 15 years and beyond.1

2.1 Housing Activity

2.1.1 Housing Growth

Figure 2-1 provides a summary of housing growth for the Municipality of North Grenville over the past 25 years (1991 to 2016). Figure 2-2 summarizes annual average housing growth rates for the Municipality in comparison to the United Counties of Leeds and Grenville (U.C.L.G.) the Ottawa Census Metropolitan Area (C.M.A.)2 and the Province. During this time period:

• North Grenville’s housing stock increased by approximately 75%, increasing from 3,680 to 6,440 housing units. This represents an annual increase of 2.3% per year;

• More recently, the Municipality’s housing base grew by 745 housing units over the 2011 to 2016 period; and

• North Grenville’s housing stock increased at a faster rate than the U.C.L.G., the C.M.A., and the Province over the 1991 to 2016 period.

1 It is noted that the historical time period reviewed varies throughout this section in accordance with the data availability. 2 Ontario component.

2


Figure 2-1 Municipality of North Grenville

Total Housing, 1991 to 2016


Comparison of Housing Growth Rates, 1991 to 2016

3,700

4,5004,900

5,2005,700

6,400

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Num

ber

of H

ouse

hold

s

YearSource: 1991-2016 based on Statistics Canada data.Note: Housing figures represent total occupied dwellings.

4.2%

1.7%1.3%

1.7%

2.5%

2.0%

0.8% 0.8%0.6%

1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

1991-1996 1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016

Aver

age

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

YearMunicipality of North Grenville United Counties of Leeds and Grenville

Ottawa CMA (Ontario Part) Ontario

Source: 1991-2011 based on Statistics Canada data, 2016 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

3


2.2 Residential Building Permit Activity, 2009 to 2016

Figures 2-3 through 2-6 summarize trends in historical residential building permit activity for the Municipality of North Grenville during the 2009 to 2016 period. Key observations include:

• The Municipality of North Grenville issued an average of 143 residential building permits per year for new housing units;

• Building permit activity has slowed post-2012, averaging 110 permits per year from 2013 to 2016 compared to an average of 175 from 2009 to 2012;

• Over the past 8 years, the residential building permit activity was strongly weighted towards low-density housing units, comprising 69% of total building permit activity; and

• The majority of building permit activity occurred within the urban areas of North Grenville, accounting for 75% of all building permit activity.


Residential Building Permits by Area, 2009 to 2016

99

176 175

249

114104

85

138

175

110

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009-2012 2013-2016

Tota

l Bui

ldin

g Per

mits

YearUrban Rural Average

Source: Derived from North Grenville Planning and Development Department data, by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

4



Residential Building Permits by Density Type, 2009 to 2016


Summary of Residential Building Permits by Percentage Density Type, 2009 to 2016

99

176 175

249

114 10485

138

175

110

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009-2012

2013-2016

Tota

l Bui

ldin

g Per

mits

YearLow density Medium density High density


69%

19%

12%

Low density Medium density High density


5



Summary Geographic Location of Development Activity, 2009 to 2016

2.2.1 Housing Mix by Unit Type

Figure 2-7 summarizes historical housing trends for the Municipality of North Grenville by housing type (i.e. density) from 1991 to 2016 based on Census data.1 Key observations include the following:

• Low-density housing (single and semi-detached) is the dominant housing form within North Grenville, representing approximately 88% of the housing stock in 2016. The percentage share of low-density housing in North Grenville has remained relatively constant over the 1991 to 2016 period;

• The share of medium-density housing has increased modestly over the past 25 years, most notably during the 1991 to 1996 period and most recently over the past ten years; and

1 2016 households by structure type have been estimated based on recent building permit activity previously summarized in section 2.2.

75%

25%

Urban Rural


6


• The share of high-density housing has declined moderately over the past 25 years.


Housing Unit Mix by Density Type, 1991 to 2016

2.2.2 Housing Occupancy by Unit Type

Figure 2-8 summarizes historical housing occupancy trends for North Grenville over the past 25 years within the context of County-wide and provincial trends. The following observations are identified:

• Over the 1991 to 2016 period, the average P.P.U. within the Municipality of North Grenville has declined from 2.77 to 2.55;

• Comparatively, housing occupancy levels within the Municipality of North Grenville are higher than the County average but lower than the provincial average. Average P.P.U. levels in North Grenville have declined at a similar pace to the County-wide and provincial averages over the past 25 years; and

• The average P.P.U. in North Grenville is forecast to continue to decline modestly over the short and medium term. This downward trend in housing occupancy has primarily been driven by the aging of the local population base, which

91.2% 88.4% 90.4% 91.6% 91.3% 90.6%

1.6% 5.0% 4.2% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5%7.2% 6.6% 5.4% 4.4% 4.2% 5.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Perc

enta

ge o

f Tot

al H

ouse

hold

s

Year

Low Density Medium Density High Density

Source: 1991-2011 based on Statistics Canada data, 2016 based on building permit data 2011-2015

7


increases the proportionate share of empty-nesters/seniors which are typically characterized as and lower occupancy households.

Figure 2-9 provides a summary of average housing occupancy in North Grenville by housing structure type and age of dwelling based on 2011 Census data. This is expressed as the average number of persons per unit (P.P.U.). Due to lack of data, average P.P.U. data for medium- and high-density households has been based on data provided at the County level. Generally, it is observed that for new housing units, housing occupancy levels tend to increase in the short term (1 to 5 years) as new home buyers form families, followed by a decline over the medium term (15 to 30 years) as children leave home. The trend is then followed by a period of stabilization over the long run (30+ years) as older units are regenerated by new families. The result of this pattern is that more recently constructed housing units typically yield a higher P.P.U. on average in comparison to older units.


Average Persons Per Unit (P.P.U.), 1991-2016

2.772.80

2.77

2.71

2.65

2.55

2.752.70

2.622.58

2.51

2.44

2.772.74

2.702.67

2.63 2.60

2.20

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Pers

ons

Per U

nit

YearMunicipality of North Grenville United Counties of Leeds and GrenvilleOntario

Source: Derived from Statistics Canada, 1991 to 2016 Census.

8



Persons Per Unit by Structure Type and Age of Dwelling, 2011

2.3 Population Trends

2.3.1 Population Growth

Figure 2-10 summarizes historical population growth trends within North Grenville from 1991 to 2016, based on Census data. Figure 2-11 provides a summary of the average annual population growth rates for North Grenville, the U.C.L.G., the Ottawa CMA1 and the Province as a whole. Key observations include:

• Between 1991 and 2016, the population of North Grenville increased from 10,200 persons to 16,450 persons, representing an increase of 6,250 or an annual rate of 1.9%;

• The largest increase in population occurred from 1991 to 1996, where the Municipality increased in population at a rate of 4.4%, significantly higher than the County, Ottawa CMA and the Province;

• From 1996 to 2011 population growth slowed in North Grenville to an annual rate of 0.9%;

• The rate of population growth in North Grenville has increased over the past five years relative to historical trends to 1.7%; and

1 Ontario component.

2.43

2.93

3.34

2.993.12

2.682.42

2.00

0.00

2.05 2.11

2.64

2.002.15

1.56

0.00 0.00

1.79

1.31

1.84

1.55

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 20-25 25-35 35+

Pers

ons

Per D

wel

ling

Age of Dwelling Singles and Semi-Detached Multiples Apartments

Note: Multiple and Apartment PPUs are based on United Counties of Leeds and Grenville.Source: Derived from Statistics Canada, 2011 Census custom tabulations.

9


• Comparably, recent population growth rates over the past five years within the Municipality of North Grenville have been slightly above the annual growth rate for the Ottawa CMA (Ontario Part) and well above the County and provincial averages.

Figure 2-10 Municipality of North Grenville Total Population, 1991 to 2016

10,200

12,60013,600 14,200

15,10016,500

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Popu

latio

n

YearSource: 1991-2011 Census Canada data, 2016 derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

10



Annual Average Population Growth Comparison, 1991 to 2016

2.3.2 Historical Population Trends by Age

Figure 2-12 summarizes historical trends in population structure by age cohort over the 1996 to 2011 period. During this period, the percentage of population in older age groups (i.e. 55+) has steadily increased from 20% to 28%, driven by the aging of the Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) within the Municipality. Increases in the proportion of the 45+ population between 1996 to 2011 were offset by a steady decline in those aged 0-44 years.

It is noted that by 2021, the front wave of the Baby Boom population will turn 75 years of age. As a result, the percentage of population within this age group is expected to grow at a steady rate over the 2021 to 2031 period. This is anticipated to place increasing demand on the need for seniors’ housing, affordable housing, as well as social services to support the Municipality’s growing population base of seniors.

4.4%

1.4%

0.9%1.2%

1.7%1.7%

0.2% 0.5% 0.0%0.5%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

1991-1996 1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016

Aver

age

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

YearMunicipality of North Grenville United Counties of Leeds and Grenville

Ottawa CMA (Ontario Part) Ontario

Source: Statistics Canada, Census 1991 to 2016.

11



Population Composition by Age Cohort, 1996 to 2011

2.4 Socio-Economic Trends

2.4.1 Education Attainment

Figure 2-13 summarizes the highest level of education achieved by North Grenville residents in comparison to those living within the U.C.L.G. and the Province of Ontario in 2011. The following observations are identified:

• Generally, North Grenville has a larger share of residents with a higher level of education than those within the County; and

• The Province has a higher proportion of residents with a university degree or higher, while North Grenville and the County have a higher share of residents with a college-level education.

29% 29% 27% 25%

20% 16% 14% 14%

18%19%

17%14%

13% 15%17%

18%

15% 16% 18% 22%

5% 5% 6% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1996 2001 2006 2011

Perc

enta

ge o

f Tot

al P

opul

atio

n

Year

75+

55-74

45-54

35-44

20-34

0-19

Source: Statistics Canada Census Data.

12



Highest Level of Education, Aged 24 to 64 (2011)

2.5 Employment Trends

The following section provides and overview of recent economic activity and employment trends for North Grenville, relative to the U.C.L.G., Ottawa CMA1, and the Province as a whole.

2.5.1 Macro-Economic Trends and Regional Competitiveness

The Canadian economy is transitioning from goods to services production, a feature that is well-documented across national, provincial and regional levels. The trend towards more knowledge-intensive and creative forms of economic activity is evident across many sectors within both the broader national and provincial economies as well as within eastern Ontario. Knowledge is now recognized as the driver of productivity and economic growth, leading to a new focus on the role of information, technology and learning in economic performance. In an increasingly knowledge-based environment, the ability to cultivate, retain and attract talented workers, high-value jobs and innovative businesses is vital for the future economic prosperity of North Grenville and the surrounding regional economy.

1 Ontario component

11%

24%

8%

24%

33%

11%

29%

10%

31%

19%

8%

24%

10%

31%

26%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

No Certificate,Diploma or Degree

High SchoolDiploma orEquivalent

Trades Certificate(No Post

SecondaryEducation)

College Certificateor Diploma

UniversityBachelor's Degree

or Higher

Perc

enta

ge o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Level of EducationProvince of Ontario United Counties of Leeds and Grenville North Grenville

Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 NHS.

13


In addition to growing knowledge-based sectors, manufacturing remains vitally important to the provincial and regional economy with respect to job growth and economic output. While growth in traditional manufacturing and industrial type jobs has declined in recent years, there is still demand for these activities throughout the broader Ontario economy. Looking forward, there will continue to be a manufacturing focus in Ontario and eastern Ontario; however, industrial processes have become more capital/technology intensive and automated. This means that as the regional manufacturing sector continues to recover, economic output will gradually increase; however, modest employment growth is anticipated in the manufacturing sector.

Ontario has also experienced significant employment growth in the transportation and warehousing sector over the past decade. This sector is highly concentrated along 400-series highways which offer access to major Canadian and U.S. employment markets. Increased outsourcing of manufacturing production to emerging global markets continues to drive the need for new consolidated, land-extensive warehousing facilities to store and manage the distribution of goods produced both locally and imported from abroad. This continues to drive demand for increasingly larger warehousing facilities, typically located in competitively priced greenfield locations throughout the Province. As a result of this trend, combined with increased automation in the manufacturing sector, average employment density levels on employment lands across many Ontario municipalities have declined in recent years.

In many respects, long-term employment potential in North Grenville is largely tied to the success of the National Capital Region as a whole. North Grenville’s proximity to the National Capital Region presents both opportunities and challenges. The National Capital Region represents a major economic engine within Canada, offering jobs in the economic powerhouse of Ontario, and is the centre of much of the economic activity in eastern Ontario. With a robust economy and diverse mix of export-based and population related employment clusters, the National Capital Region is highly attractive to new businesses and investors on an international and national level. In turn, this continues to support strong regional population growth levels largely driven by international and inter-provincial net migration.

While North Grenville’s proximity to the National Capital offers potential opportunities and synergies within the local employment base, regional competition for the talent necessary to support innovation, investment and entrepreneurship is fierce. The degree to which North Grenville can capitalize on its regional location advantages will depend largely on the competitiveness and “investment readiness” of its commercial and employment lands. North Grenville is located within proximity to a number of large

14


suburban municipalities within the National Capital Region, with which it competes directly for business attraction and retention. All of these municipalities offer regional attributes which generally appeal to prospective international and local firms.

2.5.2 Historical Employment Growth in North Grenville

Figure 2-14 summarizes total employment for North Grenville over the 2001 to 2016 period, corresponding to the employment activity rate. Figure 2-15 summarizes North Grenville’s total employment by sector from 2001 to 2016. Employment data for North Grenville has been derived from Census data, while 2016 employment is an estimate by Watson.1 Key observations include:

• The employment activity rate (ratio of local employees to population) of the Municipality has increased modestly over the 2006 to 2016 period;

• Over the 2006 to 2011 period, employment grew by 440 employees, largely due to growth in the commercial sector. Since 2011, it is estimated that North Grenville has added 480 employees, growing at an annual rate of 2.0%;

• Over the 2001 to 2016 period, employment in the work at home, industrial and institutional sectors have experienced minimal changes. From 2001 to 2011, work at home and institutional employment experienced a slight decrease, but has rebounded to 2001 employment levels; and

• The majority of employment growth in North Grenville has occurred in the commercial/population-related employment sector. From 2001 to 2016, the percentage share of commercial employment within North Grenville rose from 36% to 51%.

1 Derived from 2016 Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) employment data and 2016 Info Canada Business Directory data.

15



Total Employment, 2001 to 2016


Employment by Sector, 2001 to 2016

Figure 2-16 summarizes average annual employment growth for North Grenville in comparison to the U.C.L.G., the Ottawa CMA1 and the Province of Ontario during the 2001 to 2006 and 2006 to 2011 Census periods. Key observations include:


3,880 4,040

4,580 5,06028.6% 28.5%

30.4% 30.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2001 2006 2011 2016

Empl

oym

ent A

ctiv

ity R

ate

Empl

oym

ent

Employment Activity RateSource: 2001-2011 derived from Statistics Canada Census. 2016 is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

3,880 4,0404,580

5,060

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2001 2006 2011 2016

Empl

oym

ent

Primary Work at Home Industrial Commercial/Population-Related Institutional

Source: 2001-2011 derived from Statistics Canada Census. 2016 is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

16


• Over the 2001 to 2006 period, North Grenville’s employment base increased at an annual rate of 0.8% which is the same rate as the Ottawa CMA1 over this period; and

• Comparatively, North Grenville’s employment base increased at a significantly faster rate during the 2006 to 2011 period than the U.C.L.G., the Province and the Ottawa CMA.1


Average Annual Employment Growth Comparison, 2001 to 2011

2.5.3 Employment vs. Labour Force

Figure 2-17 illustrates the change in historical employment versus the labour force for North Grenville, over the 2001 through 2011 period. The labour force represents the number of North Grenville residents who are employed, regardless of where they work. Employment represents the number of jobs located within North Grenville regardless of where the employees live. The following observations are identified;

• The labor force within North Grenville is almost three times the size of the employment base;

• The majority of the out-commuting labour force within North Grenville travels to the City of Ottawa for employment; and


0.8%

2.6%

0.5%

-0.7%

0.8%

1.3%1.2%

0.2%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

2001-2006 2006-2011

Aver

age

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

Period

Municipality of North Grenville United Counties of Leeds and GrenvilleOttawa CMA (Ontario Part) Ontario

Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2001-2011.

17


• The ratio of jobs to labour force demonstrates the influence of the National Capital Region area as a major employment destination for North Grenville residents.


Historical Employment vs. Labour Force, 2001 to 2011

Figure 2-18 illustrates the concentration of North Grenville’s employment sectors and their respective historical growth rates relative to Ontario, between 2006 and 2016. The results of this analysis indicate the following:

• The Municipality of North Grenville has a high concentration of employment sectors relating to serving the local and surrounding rural population, including health care and social services, retail trade, accommodation and food services and education;

• A number of industrial sectors, including administration and support, waste management and remediation services, manufacturing and wholesale trade, have a relatively weak presence in North Grenville. Each of these industrial sectors has a lower employment concentration in the Municipality relative to Ontario as a whole;

• The Municipality’s employment base in the industrial sectors of transportation and warehousing and manufacturing (estimated at approximately 345 employees in 2016) is less concentrated than Ontario as a whole but, as previously mentioned these sectors, have experienced employment growth over the past 10 years; and

• Employment sectors oriented to office development typically have a relatively low employment concentration within the Municipality of North Grenville; however, the Municipality has recently been experiencing moderate to strong employment growth in several knowledge-based sectors, including finance and insurance, information and cultural industries and professional, scientific and technical services.

Year Labour Force Total Employment Net Difference Employment as % of Labour Force

2001 10,400 3,875 -6,525 37%2006 11,195 4,020 -7,175 36%2011 12,205 4,580 -7,625 38%

Source: 2001-2011 employment and labour force data derived from Statistics Canada Census data.

18


Figure 2-18 Municipality of North Grenville Relative to Ontario

Industrial Cluster Size and Growth Matrix

2.6 Conclusions

The following highlights key trends regarding recent demographic, socio-economic and economic conditions within the Municipality of North Grenville:

• North Grenville has experienced steady population and housing growth over the past 25 years. Most recently, the municipal-wide population has increased at a strong rate of 1.7% annually between 2011 and 2016;

• The North Grenville population is aging. Between 1996 and 2011, the percentage of population within the 55+ age group (i.e. empty-nesters and seniors) has steadily increased from 20% to 28%. Over the next 15 years, the Municipality’s population of older seniors (i.e. 75+) is anticipated to steadily increase driven by the aging of the Baby Boomers. This has implications on the need for seniors’ housing, affordable housing and the need for social services;

• The Municipality’s population base has grown at a slower rate than households due to a declining average P.P.U. This trend, which is largely a result of the aging of the municipal-wide population, is expected to continue over the long term;

Accommodation and food services

ManufacturingFinance and

insurance

Retail trade

Transportation and warehousing

Health care and social assistance

Information and cultural industries

Educational services

Professional, scientific and technical services

Construction

Real estate and rental and leasing

Wholesale trade

Public administration

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting

Other services (except public administration)

Admin. and support, waste mgt and

remediation services0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

-7.0% -5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0%

Loca

tion

Quo

tient

to O

ntar

io

Average Annual Employment Growth (2006-2016)Note: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction, Management of Companies and Utilities are not displayed as they each have an employment base less than 60.Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.Data source: Location quotients based on comparison to Province of Ontario derived from EMSI OMARFA Analyst, 2006-2016.

19


• North Grenville’s existing housing stock is dominated by low-density housing, comprising of approximately 90% of total housing. The Municipality’s unit mix has been relatively unchanged from 1996 to 2016;

• North Grenville’s economy is concentrated within the service sector. This includes retail and accommodation and food services, as well as other institutional and knowledge-based commercial sectors such as health care and social assistance, education, and public administration;

• The economic base is also highly oriented towards small businesses and home-based occupations; and

• Existing and emerging “knowledge-based” sectors such professional, technical and scientific services, finance and insurance, real estate and rental leasing, health care, education, information technology and agri-businesses are expected to represent the fastest growing employment sectors for North Grenville.

1


3. Residential and Non-Residential Land Supply and Servicing Capacity

This Chapter assesses the Municipality of North Grenville’s future residential and non-residential land supply potential, including opportunities for residential and non-residential intensification.

3.1 Residential Land Supply and Servicing Capacity

This section summarizes the Municipality’s potential future urban housing supply by geographic location, stage of development and water/wastewater servicing status. A summary of potential rural housing supply by development stage is also provided to give insight with respect to short- and medium-term housing opportunities in the rural area of North Grenville. Additional details are provided in Appendix A.

3.1.1 Urban Housing Supply in the Development Approvals Process and Residential Infill

As summarized in Figure 3-1, North Grenville is characterized by two Urban Serviced areas: Service Area 1 and Service Area 2. The surrounding rural area is also illustrated.

Figures 3-2 through 3-5 summarize the Municipality’s future urban housing supply potential by stage of development within the development approvals process, including residential infill development potential.1 This inventory is summarized in Appendix A between Service Area 1 and Service Area 2 as illustrated in Figure 3-1. Key observations include the following:

• North Grenville has a total of approximately 760 potential future urban housing units in the development approvals process, of which 2% is located within Service Area 1, while 98% is located in Service Area 2;

• Including identified residential infill opportunities, the Municipality has a total potential future housing supply inventory of approximately 1,720 dwelling units, of

1 Residential infill development potential which builds on previous reports prepared for the Municipality, as well as a review of recent infill development within North Grenville, including the May 2008 Land Needs Background Study prepared by John Richards and Associates Ltd. And the 2014 Municipality of North Grenville Development Charge Background Study.

2


which 23% are located within Service Area 1 and the remaining 77% are located in Service Area 2;

• Within the urban area, approximately 310 units (18%) of the Municipality’s future potential housing supply are currently within registered plans of subdivision/ condominium and 450 units (26%) are within pending draft approved plans and within O.P. designated/zoned lands;

• As previously mentioned, approximately 960 future residential infill housing units have been identified in addition to the Municipality’s future potential housing supply in active plans. Potential future residential intensification accounts for 56% of the Municipality’s total urban housing supply, excluding future housing supply opportunities located in inactive vacant designated greenfield areas;

• Of the total potential residential intensification units identified, 39% are located within Service Area 1, while 61% are located in Service Area 2; and

• Of the Municipality’s total future urban housing supply in the development approvals process (excluding residential infill opportunities), 64% of potential units are low density (single detached and semi-detached), 14% are medium density (townhouses) and 22% are high density (apartments).

3



Development Charge Service Areas

4



Summary of Potential Future Urban Housing Supply within the Development Approval Process + Residential Infill

(Dwelling Units)

Figure 3-3

Municipality of North Grenville Summary of Potential Future Urban

Housing Supply (Including Residential Infill) by Geographic Area (Dwellings Units)

140, 8%

310, 18%

310, 18%960, 56%

OP Designated/Zoned Registered Not Built

Pending Draft Approval Infill Potential

Source: Derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. based on housing supply data provided by the Municipality of North Grenville, December 2016.

390 , 23%

1,340 , 77%

Service Area 1 Service Area 2Source: Derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. based on housing supply data provided by the Municipality of North Grenville, December 2016.

5



Summary of Potential Future Urban Housing Supply in the Development Approvals Process (Excluding Residential

Infill by Housing Structure Type (Dwelling Units)

3.1.2 Urban Housing Supply on Inactive Vacant Designated Greenfield Lands

In addition to the potential future urban housing supply identified above in active plans plus long-term residential intensification, additional urban lands are also available for future development in inactive designated greenfield areas (D.G.A.). North Grenville’s future housing supply potential on inactive D.G.A. has been derived based on an average development yield of 88 gross ha within Service Area 2 (refer to Appendix A for additional details). Assuming an average gross density of 23 units per ha, this generates a total future housing yield of approximately 3,330 dwelling units. Including inactive D.G.A., North Grenville’s total future urban housing supply potential is approximately 5,054 dwelling units.

920, 53%350, 20%

460, 27%

Singles & Semi-detached Multiples ApartmentsSource: Derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. based on housing supply data provided by the Municipality of North Grenville, December 2016.

6



Summary of Potential Future Urban Housing Supply within the Development Approvals Process, Residential Infill, and on Vacant Designated Residential

Greenfield Lands (Dwelling Units)

3.1.3 Potential Future Rural Housing Supply in the Development Approvals Process

As summarized in Figure 3-6, an additional 420 low-density housing units have also been identified in the rural area within various stages of development approval. It is important to note that the potential rural housing supply summarized below does not include vacant rural lots of record which are not active within the approvals process.

144 , 3%

303 , 6% 313 ,

6%

964 , 19%

3,330 , 66%

OP Designated/Zoned Registered Not Built

Pending Draft Approval Infill Potential

Vacant Designated Greenfield Lands

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Derived from information provided by City of London

7


Future rural lot creation potential through consent has also not been considered herein. In total, the potential future rural housing supply represents approximately 35% of active urban and rural residential development activity within North Grenville.


Summary of Potential Future Rural Housing Supply within the Development Approval Process

3.1.4 Water and Wastewater Service Capacity (In Housing Unit Equivalents)

Municipal water supply and sanitary sewage disposal facilities refer to piped water and sanitary sewer services that are connected to a centralized water or sanitary sewage treatment facility and provided by the Municipality of North Grenville. In accordance with the Municipality’s water and wastewater flow management program, approved, committed and future water and wastewater capacities are summarized below in Figure 3-7 (refer to Appendix A).

20, 5%

40, 9%

40, 10%

60, 14%260, 62%

Registration Pending Draft Plan Approved OP Designated/Zoned

Pending Draft Approval Registered Not Built


8


With respect to the municipal water and wastewater flow program, a total of approximately 5,104 housing units are identified within the North Grenville water supply management program, of which 91% of housing unit equivalents are identified in Service Area 2. Of the total housing unit equivalents identified, 352 (7%) unbuilt units are approved, 357 units (7%) are committed, 2,377 units (47%) are identified as holding – future and 2,018 units (39%) are identified as potential future – post expansion.


Future Potential Housing Supply as per Water and Wastewater Flow Management Program

3.2 Non-Residential Land Supply

Provided below is a summary of gross and net vacant designated industrial and commercial land within the Municipality of North Grenville. To generate the vacant employment land inventory, Watson, with input and data from Municipal staff, has reviewed all parcels in the following designations: “Highway Commercial,” “Industrial,”

352 , 7%

357 , 7%

2,377 , 47%

2,018 , 39%

Approved Committed

Holding - Future Potential Future - Post ExpansionSource: Derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. based on North Grenville Wastewater Flow Management Program Data.

9


and “Economic Enterprise Zone” within the Municipality’s O.P. Parcels with these designations accommodate urban industrial and commercial employment that cannot easily be accommodated in the downtown core of Kemptville. It is noted that lands designated as Economic Enterprise Zone are recognized in the U.C.L.G. O.P. as a Regionally Significant Employment Area.1 The analysis was completed primarily through a desktop review using geographic information systems (G.I.S.) mapping software. Spatial overlays utilized to develop the net land supply included parcel fabric and land-use layers.

3.2.1 Vacant Employment Lands

A major factor in the future competitiveness of North Grenville’s economic base is the supply and quality of its vacant employment lands. The Municipality’s industrial and highway commercial lands are largely located along the Highway 416 corridor within the Economic Enterprise Zone designation. As identified in the North Grenville O.P., the intent of the Economic Enterprise Zone designation is to encourage an integrated mix of Highway Commercial, Industrial and Service Commercial uses.

As summarized in Figure 3-9, the Municipality of North Grenville has 115 gross ha (284 net acres) of vacant land designated as Economic Enterprise Zone, Highway Commercial and Industrial. In addition, there are 38 ha (306 net acres) of underutilized employment lands as identified by the United Counties of Leeds and Grenville Draft Employment Lands Supply Analysis prepared by MMM Group, June 2014. Adjusted for local infrastructure (i.e. roads, stormwater management, etc.) and long-term land vacancy, the Municipality’s net developable supply of vacant designated employment lands is estimated at 73 net ha (180 net acres), plus 18 net ha (44 net acres) of underutilized employment lands which are serviced/serviceable and available for development over the short, medium or long term. This provides a total net land vacant and underutilized developable employment land supply of 91 net ha (225 net acres).

As mentioned above, the North Grenville net developable land supply has been downwardly adjusted by 15% to account for long term land vacancy. Long-term land vacancy (i.e. vacant industrial/commercial parcels) is a common characteristic which is experienced in mature employment areas throughout Ontario, and is also applicable in the Municipality of North Grenville. Typically, as industrial/business park lands are brought to market, the more marketable and developable industrial sites absorb first.

1 Official Plan for the United Counties of Leeds and Grenville, Office Consolidation, Ministry Approval, February 19, 2016, Schedule A.

10


Often the remaining less-marketable sites are fragmented throughout the employment area, which limits their potential for development. Invariably, many of these sites remain vacant over the longer term, due to their limited market choice to end users. Accordingly, additional reductions to the net developable vacant industrial land supply have been made to account for long-term land vacancy, as summarized in Figure 3-9. This adjustment accounts for sites or portions of sites which are unlikely to develop over the long term due to odd/small lot sizes and poor configuration, unfavourable site conditions, underutilized industrial sites and site inactivity/land banking, which may tie up potentially vacant and developable lands.

11



Gross vs. Net Supply of Urban (Kemptville) Employment Lands

Source: Derived from land supply GIS data and servicing data provided by the Municipality of North Grenville; United Counties of Leeds and Grenville Draft Employment Lands Supply Analysis prepared by MMM Group, June 2014; and 2015 North Grenville Potable Water and Wastewater Master Plan Update prepared by Stantec, December 11, 2015. 1 As of January 2017, excludes designated lands that are currently occupied by residential uses. 2 Based on lands identified as underutilized in the United Counties of Leeds and Grenville Draft Employment Lands Supply Analysis prepared by MMM Group, June 2014. 3 Excludes underutilized lands. Based on the Municipality of North Grenville, 2015 North Grenville Potable Water and Wastewater Master Plan Update prepared by Stantec, December 11, 2015. 4 Based on 2016 W.W.P.S. Capacity Analysis Summary Tables prepared by the Municipality of North Grenville, November 2016. 5 Excludes underutilized lands. Based on the Municipality of North Grenville, 2015 North Grenville Potable Water and Wastewater Master Plan Update prepared by Stantec, December 11, 2015. 6 A downward adjustment of 20% of the gross area has been applied to account for internal infrastructure. 7 Long-term industrial land vacancy adjustment - 15% of net developed and net vacant industrial lands. Accounts for industrial land sites which may not develop over the long term (i.e. 2034) due to odd/small lot size and poor configuration, unfavourable site conditions, underutilized industrial sites, and site inactivity/land banking. 8 Based on underutilized sites that are serviced/serviceable and are currently listed for sale on the Municipality of North Grenville Economic Development's website, April 2017.

Total Developed(Net ha)1

Underutilized Lands

(Net ha)2

Total Developed, Excluding

Underutilized (Net ha)

Currently Serviced3

Serviceable - Approved & Committed4

Future Serviceable (Potential

Expansion)5

Constrained (Long Term)5

Net Developable

Land (ha)6

Net Developable

Land Adjusted for Long-Term Vacancy(ha)7

Available Serviced/

Serviceable Underutilized Lands (ha)8

Net Developable Vacant and Available

Underutilized (ha)

Economic Enterprise Zone 75.0 38.2 36.8 7.5 19.8 22.4 60.8 88.5 66.4 18.3 84.7

Highway Commercial 63.0 0.0 63.0 2.6 2.0 2.9 4.3 9.5 7.1 0.0 7.1

Industrial 11.2 0.0 11.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.9 0.0 0.9

Total 149.1 38.2 110.9 11.7 21.9 25.3 65.1 99.2 74.4 18.3 92.7

Designation

Vacant Employment Land Supply (Gross Hectares)Developed Lands (Net ha) Vacant Net Developable Land (ha)

12


As summarized in Figure 3-10, the Economic Enterprise Zone contains the largest share of vacant employment lands in the Municipality of North Grenville, at 85 net ha (210 net acres), which is planned to accommodate a mix of commercial and industrial uses. The Economic Enterprise Zone lands surround the Highway 416 interchange. Currently retail uses are concentrated along the Highway 43 corridor, while industrial uses are concentrated in the centre and southern extent of the Zone. The Highway Commercial designation, which is primarily oriented to commercial uses that cannot be accommodated in the downtown, currently has a net vacant land supply of 7 net hectares (17 acres). The Industrial designation which encompasses a small area near the Economic Enterprise Zone has only 1 net hectare (3 acres) of vacant land available for development.


Net Supply of Employment Lands by Designation

3.2.2 Supply of Serviced and/or Serviceable Vacant Employment Lands

Of the Municipality’s total designated vacant urban employment land supply, only 12 ha (29 acres) or 9% of the gross vacant designated land supply is currently municipally serviced or shovel-ready for development, as shown in Figure 3-11. These lands generally represent small infill lots within the Highway Commercial designation and phases of the Colonnade Retail Centre within the Economic Enterprise Zone. Within

85

71

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Des

igna

ted

Vaca

nt

Empl

oym

ent

Land

s (h

a)

Source: Derived from land supply GIS data and servicing data provided by the Municipality of North Grenville; United Counties of Leeds and Grenville Draft Employment Lands Supply Analysis prepared by MMM Group, June 2014; and 2015 North Grenville Potable Water and Wastewater Master Plan Update prepared by Stantec, December 11, 2015.1. Includes service/serviceable underutilized lands currently available for development.

13


the industrial designation there are three small parcels totalling 1.6 hectares (4 acres) that have existing services and are shovel-ready for development.

An additional 25 ha (64 acres) of employment lands within the urban area are serviceable, with municipal services approved and committed. These lands represent 21% of the designated gross vacant land supply and are primarily comprised of the Kemptville Gateway Centre (site plan approved for a commercial and industrial mixed-use development) and later phases of the Colonnade Business Park within the Economic Enterprise Zone.

The majority of the Municipality’s remaining serviceable employment lands are primarily located within the Economic Enterprise Zone and are concentrated along the southern extent of the Economic Enterprise Zone. These serviceable employment lands total 25 gross ha (62 acres), which represents approximately 20% of the gross vacant employment land supply.

The remaining designated employment lands which are not planned for municipal services (with respect to water and wastewater services) within the next 20 years, total 65 gross hectares (160 acres) and represent 53% of the vacant gross land supply. These lands are located in the Economic Enterprise Zone and are west of Highway 416. It is important to note that these lands are already accommodating dry industrial uses, primarily clustered in the Tophmar Industrial Park.


Designated Vacant Land Supply by Development Status

Serviced (Shovel-ready)

9%

Serviceable -Approved & Committed

18%

Future Serviceable -

Potential Expansion

20%

Constrained (Long-Term)

53%

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

14


As summarized in Figure 3-12, the vacant land supply of serviced and serviceable employment lands is largely comprised of parcels measuring 2 to 5 hectares and 5 to 10 hectares in area. These larger employment land sites accommodate 77% of the Municipality’s vacant land supply. These parcels are primarily located within the area designated as the Economic Enterprise Zone. Parcels less than 2 hectares comprise the remaining 23% of the vacant serviced and serviceable employment land supply. The Municipality currently does not have any parcels that are serviced and/or serviceable measuring 10 hectares and greater.


Serviced and Serviceable Employment Land by Parcel Size

3.2.3 Geographic Location of Developed and Vacant Employment Land Supply

Figure 3-13 geographically illustrates the location of the Municipality’s urban developed and vacant employment land supply. The supply of vacant employment lands has been summarized by development availability (i.e. serviced, serviceable and constrained).

Less than 1 ha9%

1 - 2 ha12%

2 - 5 ha43%

5 - 10 ha36%

10 ha or greater

0%


15



Urban Employment Land by Designation and Serving Type

16


3.2.4 Market Choice Requirements

From a market choice perspective, one of the most important employment site selection criterion, which is partially controllable by the Municipality of North Grenville and the U.C.L.G., relates to ensuring that an ample supply of suitable vacant serviced (and serviceable) employment and commercial lands are available for purchase and absorption. This involves providing a readily available and serviced employment land supply inventory, to fully provide for a range of site selection choices with respect to:

• price; • site size; • availability and cost of servicing; • neighbourhood and setting; • zoning; • visibility; • highway access; • other physical characteristics (topography, environmental conditions/soil

conditions, buffering); • tenure (lease vs. design build vs. own); and • other industrial land market requirements, including site proportioning (frontage

to depth), timing of servicing, site expandability, etc.

To ensure that the market for employment lands is not unduly constrained, the Municipality of North Grenville needs to provide a balanced inventory of designated shovel-ready and serviceable vacant employment lands that is sufficient to meet demand over the short to medium term. It is noted that if the development constraints identified on larger-scale industrial sites are not addressed, forecast industrial absorption will continue to be limited, similar to recent industrial development trends.

1


4. Long-Term Population and Housing Growth Forecasts

4.1 Introduction

This Chapter summarizes long-term population and household growth for North Grenville from 2016 to 2031 by urban and rural area. As previously identified in Chapter 1, the long-term (i.e. 2031) municipal-wide population and employment growth forecast for North Grenville builds on the findings of the 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis, in particular the population and housing growth allocations for North Grenville from 2011 to 2031. As previously discussed in Chapter 2, consideration has been given to the results of the 2016 Census regarding long-term population and household growth trends assumed for North Grenville as part of the County O.P. study.1 Recent regional and local economic data was also used to inform recent residential and non-residential trends and the long-term population and employment growth outlook for North Grenville.

Building on this review, two long-term growth scenarios have been developed for North Grenville including: 1) Base Case Residential Growth Scenario; and, 2) Alternative Residential Growth Scenario. The Base Case Residential Growth Scenario directly targets the long-term population growth allocations for North Grenville as per the 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis but assumes a relatively lower long term housing forecast for North Grenville in accordance with forecast housing occupancy trends. The Alternative Growth Scenario forecasts moderately higher long-term population growth for North Grenville assuming consistent housing growth to the County O.P. study, but slightly higher average household occupancy levels over the forecast period. Additional details with respect to the long-term growth scenarios and allocations are provided in Appendix B.

An additional key focus of this study relates to the allocation, phasing and ultimate population and housing yield at urban residential buildout by Urban Serviced area, i.e. Kemptville Service Area (Service Area 1) and Service Area 2. The residential buildout forecast provided herein is premised on a detailed review of urban land supply in active plans, inactive designated greenfield areas, residential intensification opportunities, as

1 Based on 2016 Census data released, February 2017.

2


well as a review of approved, committed and future water and wastewater servicing in designated urban areas.

4.2 North Grenville Population and Housing Forecast, 2016 to 2031 – Base Case Residential Growth Scenario

Figure 4-1 summarizes the Base Case Residential Growth Scenario for the Municipality from 2016 to 2031. Historical population growth is provided from 2001 to 2016 for comparative purposes. Over the 2016 to 2031 forecast period, the Municipality of North Grenville’s Base Case population is forecast to increase by 2,400 persons, reaching a population of 19,300 by 2031 including the net Census undercount. This represents an average annual population growth rate of 0.9%. Comparatively, North Grenville’s population grew at an annual rate of 1.3% between 2001 and 2016.


Population Forecast, 2016 to 2031 (Residential Base Case Growth Scenario)

13,90014,500

15,500

16,90017,700

18,70019,300

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

Historical Base Case

Note: Figures include net Census undercount of approx. 2%

3


Figure 4-2 provides additional details with respect to the Base Case Residential Growth Scenario for North Grenville between 2016 and 2031. Key findings regarding the municipal-wide population and housing forecasts are summarized as follows:

• The Municipality’s housing base is forecast to increase to approximately 7,740 households by 2031, an increase of 1,300 households over the forecast period, representing an annual housing increase of 87 units;

• As previously identified, average P.P.U. levels have declined in North Grenville from 2.76 in 2001 to 2.56 in 2016, largely driven by the aging of the population. Over the forecast period, average P.P.U. levels are anticipated to continue to decline to an average of 2.44 in 2031;1 and

• The majority of new housing growth is anticipated to be oriented towards low-density housing forms (i.e. single detached/semi-detached), comprising 57% of forecast housing growth over the 2016 to 2031 period; however, the percentage of medium-density and high-density housing forms is forecast to gradually increase over the forecast period, largely driven by the aging of the population.

1 It is noted that the average P.P.U. for North Grenville is forecast to decline to 2.32 (excluding the net Census undercount) as per the 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis. Relative to recent historical trends, the forecast P.P.U. decline for North Grenville as part of the 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis appears aggressive.

4



Population and Housing Forecast (Base Case Residential Growth Scenario)

Singles & Semi-Detached

Multiple Dwellings2 Apartments3 Other Total

HouseholdsPersons PerUnit (PPU)

13,600 13,900 4,410 210 270 30 4,920 2.76

14,200 14,500 4,730 210 230 70 5,240 2.71

15,100 15,500 5,150 260 240 50 5,700 2.65

16,500 16,900 5,780 290 320 50 6,440 2.56

17,300 17,700 6,010 390 460 50 6,910 2.50

18,200 18,700 6,320 480 570 50 7,420 2.45

18,900 19,300 6,520 530 640 50 7,740 2.44600 600 320 0 -40 40 320900 1,000 420 50 10 -20 460

1,400 1,400 630 30 80 0 740800 800 230 100 140 0 470

1,700 1,800 540 190 250 0 9802,400 2,400 740 240 320 0 1,300

57% 18% 25% 0% 100%Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2016.1. Census undercount estimated at approximately 2%. Note: Population including the undercount has been rounded.2. Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes.3. Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom+ apartments.

Incr

emen

tal

Year

Population (Excluding

Census Undercount)

Population (Including Census

Undercount)¹

Housing Units

His

toric

al Mid 2001

Mid 2006

Mid 2011

Fore

cast

Mid 2016

Mid 2021

Mid 2026

Mid 2031Mid 2001 - Mid 2006Mid 2006 - Mid 2011Mid 2011 - Mid 2016Mid 2016 - Mid 2021Mid 2016 - Mid 2026Mid 2016 - Mid 2031

Forecast Housing by Structure TypeMid 2016 - Mid 2031

5


Figure 4-3 graphically illustrates the annual housing growth forecast for North Grenville over the 2016 to 2031 period against historical building permit activity over the past 15 years (2002 to 2016). Over this historical time period, North Grenville has averaged approximately 120 residential building permits per year (new units only). Relative to historical trends between 2001 and 2016, the Base Case Residential Growth Scenario represents a 28% decrease in the number of new dwellings constructed and occupied per year (87 vs. 120).


Forecast Annual Housing Growth by Structure Type (Base Case Residential Growth Scenario)

4.2.1 Allocation of Population and Housing Growth by Urban and Rural Area (Base Case Residential Growth Scenario)

The allocation of population and housing growth within North Grenville by urban and rural area has been developed based on a detailed review of the following local supply and demand factors.

Local Supply Factors:

• Supply of potential future housing stock in the development process by housing structure type and approval status;

111

73

91 89 92

115

9499

176 175

249

114

104

85

138129 129 129 129

101 101 101 101 101

65 65 65 65 65

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Hou

sing

Uni

ts

Years

Historical Low Density Medium Density High Density Historical AverageSource: Historical housing activity (2002-2008) based on Statistics Canada building permits; 2009-2016 based on North Grenville Building Permit Data, Catalogue 64-001-XIB1. Growth Forecast represents calendar year.

6


• Housing intensification opportunities; • Current inventory of net vacant designated urban “greenfield” lands not currently

in the development approvals process; • Water and wastewater servicing capacity (measured in housing units); and • Provincial policy direction regarding forecast residential growth by urban versus

rural area.

Demand Factors:

• Historical population and housing activity by structure type based on 2001 to 2011 Statistics Canada (Census) data by urban community and remaining rural area;

• A review of historical residential building permit activity (new units only) by structure type from 2009 to 2014 by Urban Serviced area and remaining rural area; and

• Market demand for housing intensification.

Figures 4-4 and 4-5 summarize the allocation of the Base Case Residential Growth Scenario by urban and rural area within North Grenville over the 2016 to 2031 period. Additional information with respect to the population and housing allocations by geographic area is provided in Appendix B. Key observations include;

• Service Area 1 is forecast to experience minimal population growth over the long-term planning horizon, increasing by a total of approximately 300 persons. This represents an increase of 200 dwelling units or 13 units annually;

• The population base in Service Area 2 is forecast to steadily grow from approximately 1,760 persons in 2016 to 4,280 persons in 2031. This represents a total population increase of 2,520 persons over the planning horizon or an average annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2016 to 2031;

• Limited housing growth totalling approximately 100 units has been allocated to the rural area over the long-term planning horizon; and

• The population base in the rural area of North Grenville is forecast to modestly decline from 11,600 in 2016 to 11,400 in 2031. The forecast population decrease in the rural area is a result of the anticipated decline in the average P.P.U. within the rural area over the forecast period.

7


Figure 4-4 Municipality of North Grenville Population Growth Allocations

(Base Case Residential Growth Scenario)

Figure 4-5 Municipality of North Grenville Household Growth Allocations

(Base Case Residential Growth Scenario)

3,000 3,400 3,500 3,600 3,700

1,400 1,800 2,600 3,600 4,200

11,10011,700

11,60011,500 11,400

15,50016,900

17,70018,700 19,300

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tota

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ulat

ion

by A

rea

Year

Service Area 1 Service Area 2 Rural

1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,600

600 8001,100

1,500 1,800

3,9004,300

4,3004,300

4,4005,700

6,4006,900

7,4007,700

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tota

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sing

by

Area

YearService Area 1 Service Area 2 Rural


8


4.3 North Grenville Population and Housing Forecast, 2016 to 2031 – Alternative Residential Growth Scenario

Figure 4-6 summarizes the Alternative Residential Growth Scenario for North Grenville from 2016 to 2031. Historical population growth is provided from 2001 to 2016 for comparative purposes. Over the 2016 to 2031 forecast period the Municipality of North Grenville population under the Alternative Residential Growth Scenario population is forecast to increase by 4,200 persons, reaching a population of 21,100 by 2031 including the net Census undercount. This represents an average annual population growth rate of 1.4%.


Population Forecast, 2016 to 2031

Figure 4-7 summarizes the Alternative Residential Growth Scenario for North Grenville between 2016 and 2031. Key findings regarding the municipal-wide population and housing forecasts are summarized as follows:

• The Municipality’s housing base is forecast to increase to approximately 8,160 households by 2031, an increase of 1,720 households over the forecast period;

• Over the forecast period, average P.P.U. levels are anticipated to continue to decline to an average of 2.52 in 2031; and

• The majority of new housing growth is anticipated to be oriented towards low-density housing forms (i.e. single detached/semi-detached), comprising 67% of forecast housing growth over the 2016 to 2031 period; however, the percentage

13,90014,500

15,500

16,900

17,900

19,400

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12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

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22,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tota

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ulat

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Historical Alternative Residential Growth

Note: Figures include net Census undercount of approx. 2%

9


of medium-density and high-density housing forms is forecast to gradually increase over the forecast period, largely driven by the aging of the population.

10



Population and Housing Forecast

Singles & Semi-Detached



13,580 13,910 4,410 210 270 30 4,920 2.76

14,200 14,540 4,730 210 230 70 5,240 2.71

15,090 15,450 5,150 260 240 50 5,700 2.65

16,450 16,850 5,780 290 320 50 6,440 2.55

17,440 17,860 6,070 390 460 50 6,970 2.50

18,910 19,360 6,550 470 570 50 7,640 2.48

20,560 21,060 6,940 530 640 50 8,160 2.52620 630 320 0 -40 40 320890 910 420 50 10 -20 460

1,360 1,400 630 30 80 0 740990 1,010 290 100 140 0 530

2,460 2,510 770 180 250 0 1,2004,110 4,210 1,160 240 320 0 1,720

67% 14% 19% 0% 100%Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2016.1. Census undercount estimated at approximately 2%. Note: Population including the undercount has been rounded.2. Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes.3. Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom+ apartments.

Incr

emen

tal

Forecast Housing by Structure TypeMid 2016 - Mid 2031

Mid 2001 - Mid 2006Mid 2006 - Mid 2011Mid 2011 - Mid 2016Mid 2016 - Mid 2021Mid 2016 - Mid 2026Mid 2016 - Mid 2031

Fore

cast

Mid 2016

Mid 2021

Mid 2026

Mid 2031

His

toric

al Mid 2001

Mid 2006

Mid 2011

Year


Census Undercount)


Undercount)¹

Housing Units

11


Figure 4-3 graphically illustrates the annual housing growth forecast for North Grenville over the 2016 to 2031 period against historical building permit activity over the past 15 years (2002 to 2016). Relative to historical trends, the Alternative Residential Growth Scenario represents a 5% decrease in the number of new dwellings constructed and occupied per year (104 vs. 120).


Forecast Annual Housing Growth by Structure Type

4.3.1 Allocations of Population and Housing Growth by Urban and Rural Area (Alternative Residential Growth Scenario)

The Alternative Residential Growth Scenario assumes a higher level of rural housing and population growth in the rural area relative to the Base Case Residential Growth Scenario. This upward adjustment to the growth allocation in the rural area is anticipated in accordance with recent rural building permit activity and identified rural housing supply in the development approvals process. Under the Alternative Residential Growth Scenario, absolute population and housing growth levels within the urban area are consistent with the Base Case Residential Growth Scenario.

111

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91 89 92

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176 175

249

114

104

85

138142 142 142 142

133 133 133 133 133

121

10396 96 96

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Hou

sing

Uni

ts

YearsHistorical Low Density Medium Density High Density Historical Average

Source: Historical housing activity (2002-2008) based on Statistics Canada building permits; 2009-2016 based on North Grenville Building Permit Data, Catalogue 64-001-XIB1. Growth Forecast represents calendar year.

12


Figure 4-9 Municipality of North Grenville Population Growth Allocations

(Alternative Residential Growth Scenario)

Figure 4-10 Municipality of North Grenville Housing Growth Allocations

(Alternative Residential Growth Scenario)

3,000 3,400 3,500 3,600 3,8001,400 1,800 2,500 3,500 4,300

11,10011,700

11,80012,300

13,000

15,50016,900

17,80019,400

21,100

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031Year

Service Area 1 Service Area 2 RuralSource: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,600

600 800 1,1001,500 1,800

3,9004,300

4,4004,600

4,8005,700

6,4007,000

7,7008,200

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tota

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sing

by

Area

Year

Service Area 1 Service Area 2 RuralSource: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

13


4.4 Urban Residential Buildout

While the 2014 Provincial Policy Statement (P.P.S.) limits population and employment growth to a planning horizon of up to 20 years, section 1.1.2 of the 2014 P.P.S. identifies that nothing limits municipalities in planning for infrastructure and public service facilities beyond a 20-year time horizon. Accordingly, for the purpose of long-range infrastructure planning, the population forecast and growth allocations have been extended to buildout of the Municipality’s designated and serviced/serviceable1 residential lands. The urban buildout forecasts will be used to strategically guide long-term water and wastewater servicing requirements.

Figure 4-11 summarizes North Grenville’s total future urban serviced (water and wastewater) housing potential within Service Area 1 and Service Area 2. The buildout population and housing yield of North Grenville’s urban serviced lands is 17,200 persons and 7,250 housing units, respectively. This represents an increase of approximately 12,000 persons and 5,104 housing units within the North Grenville Urban Area.

1 Water and wastewater.

14



Urban Residential Buildout Population and Housing Forecast

4.5 Observations

The Municipality of North Grenville has experienced steady population growth over the past 15 years, averaging 1.3% annual growth between 2001 and 2016. Most recently, the annual population growth rate in North Grenville accelerated to 1.7% between 2011 and 2016, driven by the gradual economic recovery within the National Capital Region. The rate of future population growth in North Grenville is anticipated to decline relative to recent historical trends, largely as a result of the aging of the local population base.

Singles & Semi-

Detached

Multiple Dwellings2 Apartments3 Total

2016 3,300 3,400 1,020 150 220 1,400 2.36Buildout 4,300 4,400 310 540 1,100 1,950 2.21

2016 to Buildout 1,000 1,000 -710 390 880 5501. Population excludes net Census undercount of approximately 2%.2. Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes.3. Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom+ apartments.

Singles & Semi-

Detached


2016 1,700 1,800 510 140 100 750 2.27Buildout 12,500 12,800 2,960 1,170 1,170 5,300 2.36

2016 to Buildout 10,800 11,000 2,450 1,030 1,070 4,5501. Population excludes net Census undercount of approximately 2%.2. Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes.3. Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom+ apartments.

Singles & Semi-

Detached


2016 5,000 5,200 1,530 290 320 2,150 2.33Buildout 16,800 17,200 3,270 1,710 2,270 7,250 2.32

2016 to Buildout 11,800 12,000 1,740 1,420 1,950 5,1001. Population excludes net Census undercount of approximately 2%.2. Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes.3. Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom+ apartments.

North GrenvilleTotal

Population1Total

Population

Housing Units

PPU

Service Area 2Total

Population1Total

Population

Housing Units

PPU

Service Area 1Total

Population1Total

Population

Housing Units

PPU

15


Forecast net migration levels to both urban and rural locations within the Municipality, however, are anticipated to remain strong given the Municipality’s proximity to the National Capital Region.

In accordance with recent economic and demographic trends and anticipated long-term local housing demand, the population allocation for North Grenville between 2011 and 2031 as part of the 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis forecast appears low, largely as a result of an aggressive P.P.U. decline. The Alternative Residential Growth Scenario provided herein forecasts moderately higher population growth to North Grenville over the 2016 to 2031 relative to the Base Case Residential Growth Scenario. Figure 4-12, compares the Base Case and Alternative Residential Growth Scenarios over the 2011 to 2031 planning horizon.



With respect to ultimate urban population yield within Service Area 1 and Service Area 2, it is estimated that these areas can collectively accommodate a total population of 16,800 persons within 7,060 municipally serviced households. This represents an additional 11,600 persons and 4,870 households within the urban area of North Grenville, of which approximately 90% of additional housing growth would be directed to Service Area 2.

13,90014,500

15,500

17,700

18,70019,300

16,900

17,900

19,400

21,100

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tota

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ulat

ion



1


5. Long-Term Employment Growth Forecasts

5.1 Introduction

This Chapter summarizes the long-term employment forecast for North Grenville from 2016 to 2031 by urban area (Service Area 1 and Service Area 2) and remaining rural lands. Similar to the residential growth forecast, two long-term employment growth scenarios have been developed for North Grenville, including: 1) Base Case Employment Growth Scenario; and, 2) Alternative Employment Growth Scenario. The Base Case Employment Growth Scenario directly targets the long-term population growth allocations for North Grenville as per the 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis. The Alternative Growth Scenario forecasts moderately higher long-term employment growth to the Municipality in accordance with 2016 employment estimates, recent economic trends and anticipated long-term economic growth potential in North Grenville.

For the purposes of water and wastewater infrastructure planning purposes, the ultimate urban buildout potential of North Grenville’s non-residential lands has been identified. Non-residential urban buildout is based on a detailed review of the vacant and underutilized employment land supply with existing or planned/proposed (serviceable) water and wastewater servicing, as previously discussed in detailed in Chapter 3.

5.1.1 Employment Growth Forecast Scenarios, 2016 to 2031

As previously identified in Chapter 2, it is estimated that North Grenville experienced a steady increase in employment growth between 2011 and 2016, adding approximately 480 jobs to its employment base over this period largely within the Colonnade Retail Centre in the Economic Enterprise Zone. This would suggest that the 2016 employment estimate for North Grenville has already exceeded the 2031 employment forecast prepared for the 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis. The following section provides a more detailed comparison of the Base Case and Alternative Employment Growth Scenarios for North Grenville.

Figure 5-1a summarizes the Base Case Employment Scenario and the Alternative Employment Scenario for the Municipality from 2011 to 2031. Appendix C-1 provides further details regarding the two employment scenarios. The Base Case Employment

2


Scenario forecasts a total of 4,970 employees by 2031.1 This represents an annual average employment growth rate of 0.6%. Historically, as summarized in the Figure 5-1b, average annual employment growth rates have been higher at 2.6% over the 2006 to 2011 period and 2.0% over the 2011 to 2016 period. The Alternative Employment Scenario forecasts that North Grenville will achieve a higher average annual employment growth rate relative to the Base Case Scenario, but a lower annual employment growth rate than historical levels. The Alternative Employment Scenario forecasts an increase of 760 employees over the 2016 to 2031 period, which generates a 2031 employment forecast of 5,820.

Figure 5-1a Municipality of North Grenville

Base Case Employment Scenario and Alternative Employment Scenario

1 Employment forecasts exclude no fixed place of work employment, which is assumed to represent approximately 13% of total employment between 2011 and 2031.

4,5805,020 4,970

4,5805,210

5,820

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2011 2021 2031

Empl

oym

ent

Base Case AlternativeNotes: Excludes No Fixed Place of Work.Base case forecast is based on the Leeds Grenville Official Plan Growth & Settlement Analysis prepare by Hemson Consulting Ltd., August 6, 2014. Alternative Forecast derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.Source: Watson & Associates Economsits Ltd.

3


Figure 5-1b Municipality of North Grenville

Base Case Employment Scenario and Alternative Employment Scenario Annual Average Employment Growth Rate, 2006 to 2031

Figures 5-2 and 5-3 summarize the Base Case Employment Scenario and the Alternative Employment Growth Scenario for North Grenville between 2011 and 2031 by major employment sector. Appendix C-1 provides further details regarding the two employment forecasts. Key findings regarding the two employment growth scenarios are summarized below.

• The Municipality has experienced strong growth over the past five years in commercial employment, particularly retail employment. The development of the Colonnade Retail Centre in the Economic Enterprise Zone has provided opportunities for big-box retailers to enter the Kemptville market. The Alternative Employment Scenario is based on the premise that the Kemptville Urban Area will continue to develop its retail base with committed/planned expansion of municipal water/wastewater retail sites within the Economic Enterprise Zone, providing opportunities for retail development.

• In terms of industrial employment growth, the Base Case Employment Scenario forecasts a small decline in employment of 27 employees over the 2016 to 2031 period after adjusting for a 2016 base year.

• The Alternative Employment Scenario includes a modest increase of 75 industrial employees over the 2016 to 2031 period. It is anticipated that the further servicing of the Economic Enterprise Zone will open up additional lands with a

2.6%

2.0%

-0.2% -0.2%

2.6%

2.0%

1.3%1.6%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2006 - 2011 2011 - 2016 2016 - 2021 2021 - 2031

5-Ye

ar A

nnua

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rage

Em

ploy

men

tG

row

th R

ate

(%)

5-Year PeriodBase Case Scenario Alternative Employment Scenario

Notes: Includes Work at Home employment and excludes No Fixed Place of Work employment.Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2011. Base case forecast is based on the Leeds Grenville Official Plan Growth & Settlement Analysis prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd., August 6, 2014. 2016 is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Alternative Forecast derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

4


greater range of market choice. As discussed later in this Chapter, industrial growth will be focused primarily within the Economic Enterprise Zone. This area is anticipated to accommodate steady industrial and commercial employment growth; however, at a municipal-wide level, this growth is anticipated to be offset by losses in industrial employment from other areas of the Municipality.

• The Alternative Employment Scenario forecasts modest growth in institutional employment and work at home employment, based on anticipated population growth for the Municipality.


Base Case Employment Scenario

4,580 5,060 5,020 5,000 4,970

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2011 2016 2021 2021 2031

Empl

oym

ent

Primary Work at Home Industrial Commercial/Population-Related InstitutionalSource: Statistics Canada, Census 2011. 2016 is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Base case forecast is based on the Leeds Grenville Official Plan Growth & Settlement Analysis prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd., August 6, 2014.

5



Alternative Employment Scenario

Figure 5-4 summarizes absorption levels for the Alternative Employment Scenario for employment lands (Highway Commercial, Industrial and Economic Enterprise Zone O.P. designations) on greenfield lands over the forecast period, 2016 to 2031. As a comparison, historical absorption over the 2011 to 2016 period is also summarized.

Over the past five years (2011 to 2016), a total of 18 net hectares of land was absorbed on urban employment lands related to commercial and industrial developments. The development of the Colonnade Retail Centre (power centre development), approximately 11 net hectares, was a major component of absorption over the 2011 to 2016 period. The Colonnade Retail Centre accommodated a number of new stores in the Kemptville urban area, as well as accommodating relocations of existing retailers seeking larger sites (Canadian Tire). Other notable developments on employment lands during this period included an insurance office and a trucking firm.

It is anticipated that over the 2016 to 2031 period, absorption levels will soften to 1 to 2 hectares annually (2.5 to 5 acres) or approximately 20 hectares (49 acres) over the 2016 to 2031 forecast period. An additional retail development at the scale of the existing Colonnade Retail Centre is not anticipated given population growth anticipated over the forecast. The existing Colonnade Retail Centre, however, will provide a strong anchor in attracting additional retail and services to the Kemptville urban area. The absorption forecast also anticipates that the industrial sector will comprise a greater share of absorption in the Economic Enterprise Zone due to the future availability of additional service lands. It is important to note that the Economic Enterprise Zone is

4,580 5,060 5,210

5,500 5,820

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2011 2016 2021 2021 2031

Empl

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Primary Work at Home Commercial/Population-Related Industrial Institutional

Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 Census. 2016 is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Forecast derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

6


strategically situated along the Highway 416 Corridor. The Economic Enterprise Zone offers a large supply (48 net ha or 119 net acres) of serviced/serviceable vacant employment lands to accommodate general industrial uses within the Highway 416 Corridor.

Figure 5-4 Municipality of North Grenville Employment Land Absorption1

Other available vacant employment lands within the surrounding market area include: 103 net hectares (255 net acres) in the Ottawa 416 Business Park, which is primarily targeted for prestige and office tenants; 36 net hectares (89 net acres) of dry industrial lands in the Jordel Industrial Park (City of Ottawa); and, 13 net hectares (32 net acres) in the Moodie Drive Industrial Park (City of Ottawa).2 The Johnstown Industrial Park in the Township of Edwardsburgh/Cardinal has recently absorbed a large parcel for a Giant Tiger Distribution Centre,3 with approximately 20 net hectares (49 net acres) of serviceable employment lands remaining.

5.1.2 Allocation of Employment Growth by Urban and Rural Area

Figures 5-5 and 5-6 summarize the allocation of employment by servicing area (Service Area 1, Service Area 2 and rural area) according to the Base Case Employment 1 Based on absorption of greenfield lands (excludes intensification). 2 Based on City of Ottawa, Vacant Industrial and Business Park Lands Survey, 2015 and a review of recent land absorption. 3 Giant Tiger acquired 101 hectares (250 acres) which will accommodate a 600,000 sq.ft. warehouse to be constructed in 2018 and will provide opportunities for future expansions.

18

76

7

0

5

10

15

20

2011 - 2016 2016 - 2021 2021 - 2026 2026 - 2031

Tota

l Lan

d Ab

sorb

ed, h

a

Land Absorption by 5-Year PeriodsNote: Includes greenfield absorption within the Highway Commercial and Economic Enterprise Zone designated areas. 2011-2016 is historical.Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

7


Scenario and the Alternative Employment Growth Scenario for North Grenville between 2011 and 2031. Details regarding employment allocation by servicing area to 2031 can be found in Appendix C, while employment buildout by servicing area is provided in Appendix C.

Key highlights of the forecast by service area include:

• As summarized in Figure 5-5, the Base Employment Scenario assumes a net employment loss over each of the 5-year increment periods within rural areas. Service Area 1 is forecast to experience employment decline while modest employment growth is forecast for Service Area 2 over the 15-year forecast period.

• The Alternative Growth Scenario, as summarized in Figure 5-6, forecasts strong employment growth for Service Area 2 with a more modest growth in Service Area 1 starting in 2021. Employment decline is anticipated for the rural area throughout the forecast period.


Base Case Employment Scenario Employment Growth Increments by Area, 2011 to 2031

479

(40) (25) (25)

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031

Net

Em

ploy

men

t G

row

th

Employment Growth by 5-Year IncrementUrban Service Area 1 Urban Service Area 2 Rural

Source: 2011-2016 is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2021-2031 base case forecast is based on the Leeds Grenville Official Plan Growth & Settlement Analysis prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd., August 6, 2014.

8



Alternative Employment Scenario Employment Growth Increments by Area, 2011 to 2031

5.1.3 Urban Employment Lands Buildout Forecast

Urban Employment Lands are expected to accommodate the majority of future commercial and industrial employment within the Municipality. The Downtown core of Kemptville is expected to accommodate future commercial intensification, while institutional employment is anticipated to be accommodated throughout the Municipality. Industrial lands in the rural areas are anticipated to experience a slight decline in employment. Figures 5-7 through 5-9 summarize the key inputs and components of the buildout urban employment lands forecast buildout. Appendix C provides details on the buildout forecast. It is important to note that the vacant urban lands are largely contained within Service Area 2. In terms of developed employment lands, some parcels are located in Service Area 1, primarily Highway Commercial designated lands located on the south side of a stretch of Highway 43. For details regarding the existing employment and forecast employment to 2031 by Urban Serviced area refer to Appendix C.

479

148

289320

(100)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031

Net

Em

ploy

men

t Gro

wth

Employment Growth by 5-Year IncrementUrban Service Area 1 Urban Service Area 2 Rural


9


Key highlights of the buildout forecast include:

• As summarized in Figure 5-7, urban employment land densities as of 2016 range from 10 employees/net hectare within the Industrial designation to 36 employees/net hectares within the Highway Commercial designation. Overall, the average employment density for employment lands within the Municipality was 30 employees/net hectare as of 2016. It is anticipated that the average employment density will decrease to 22 employees/net hectare at buildout, due to a greater share of industrial developments which typically has a lower average employment density levels;

• Figure 5-8 summarizes the developed land area (net ha) of employment lands as of 2016, compared to the ultimate buildout by O.P. designation. As summarized, the designated Economic Enterprise Zone will accommodate the bulk of future employment lands employment. The Economic Enterprise Zone currently has a developed land area of 41, as of 2016, with a buildout of 88 net hectares (217 net acres) which is comprised of 47 net hectares (116 net acres) of vacant serviced/serviceable lands; and

• It is estimated that, at buildout, employment lands will accommodate approximately 3,350 employees on 165 net hectares (408 net acres) of employment lands, this represents and increase of 1,180 employees on 53 net hectares (131 net acres) between 2016 and urban buildout. The designated Economic Enterprise Zone, as summarized in Figure 5-9, will accommodate the greatest number of employees at buildout, approximately 58%.

10



Average Employment Density on Urban Employment Lands 2016 and Buildout


Urban Employment Lands Total Land Area Developed as of 2016 and Total Land Area at Buildout

27

36

10

30

21

40

10

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

Enterprise Zone HighwayCommercial

Industrial Overall

Empl

oym

ent D

ensit

y (E

mpl

oym

ent/L

and

Area

-ha)

Official Plan Designation

2016 BuildoutSource: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

41

60

11

88

65

12

0

20

40

60

80

100

Enterprise Zone Highway Commercial Industrial

Land

Are

a (h

a)

Official Plan Designation Developed, 2016 Total Land Area at Buildout


11



Urban Employment Lands Employment by Designation as of 2016 and at Buildout

9601,190

20

1,950

1,370

300

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Enterprise Zone Highway Commercial Industrial

Empl

oym

ent

Official Plan Designation

2016 BuildoutSource: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

1


6. Conclusions The 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis forecasts slow long-term population and employment growth within U.C.L.G. This relatively modest long-term growth outlook is largely as a result of an aging population labour force as well as declining economic growth in the manufacturing sector within eastern Ontario and throughout the Province as a whole.

While the eastern Ontario economic was hit particularly hard by the 2008/2008 global economic downturn, the regional economy has experience a gradually recovery since 2011, most notably in employment sectors concentrated in service and knowledge-based sectors. More locally, the Municipality of North Grenville has also experienced steady employment growth over the past five years. Between 2011 and 2016, North Grenville added a total of 480 jobs1 to its employment base, largely in the retail sector.

The summary of recent population, housing and employment growth trends provided in Chapter 2 herein indicates that the gradual regional economic recovery within the National Capital Region has been a key driver of recent net migration to North Grenville. In turn, stronger net migration in North Grenville has generated higher local population, housing and employment growth over the past five years relative to prior Census periods between 2001 and 2011.

Over the next fifteen years, it is anticipated that continued economic growth in the National Capital Region will stimulate further net migration to North Grenville, and ultimately future housing and local employment growth to the area. While it is likely that the regional economy could experience one or more economic downturns over the 2016 to 2031 planning horizon, the 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis appears to represents conservative view of future long-term population and employment growth potential in the Municipality of North Grenville. While it is prudent to not overstate long-term residential and non-residential development trends, it also important for the purposes of long-term planning, infrastructure and municipal service delivery not to understate the long-term population and employment growth outlook for North Grenville. Accordingly, two long-term residential and non-residential growth scenarios have been developed for the Municipality of North Grenville. Scenario 1, Base Case Growth Scenario is premised on the 2014 Leeds Grenville O.P. Growth & Settlement Analysis population and employment allocation for North Grenville, while Scenario 2,

1 Excluding no fixed place of work employment

2


Alternative Growth Scenario reflects a slightly higher long-term residential and non-residential growth outlook for the municipality in accordance with our review of recent development trends and future growth drivers within the local and surrounding regional market area.

A summary of the two long-term population growth scenarios is provided below in Figure 6-1. In summary, the Alternative Residential Growth Scenario forecasts moderately higher population growth for North Grenville relative to the Base Case Residential Growth Scenario.



A summary of the two long-term employment growth scenarios is also provided below in Figure 6-2. In summary, the Alternative Employment Growth Scenario forecasts considerably higher employment growth for North Grenville relative to the Base Case Employment Scenario in accordance with recent economic trends and forecast employment prospects by major sector within the municipality’s designated employment lands, C.B.D. and other non-residential areas.

13,90014,500

15,500

17,700

18,70019,300

16,900

17,900

19,400

21,100

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion



3



Comparison of Base Case Employment Scenario and Alternative Employment Scenario

3,8804,040

4,5805,060

5,020 5,000 4,970

5,2105,500

5,820

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tota

l Em

ploy

men

t

Historical Base Case Alternative Employment Scenario

Note: Excludes no fixed place of work employment.

Page A-1


Appendix A – Residential and Non-Residential Supply and Servicing Capacity

Information

Page A-2


Appendix A-1 Municipality of North Grenville

Residential Land Supply by Stage of Development and Development Area

Singles & Semi-

detachedMultiples Apartments Total

Percentage Housing Units by Urban Area

Singles & Semi-


Percentage Housing Units by Urban Area

Singles & Semi-


Registered Not Built 13 0 0 13 4% 183 42 68 293 96% 196 42 68 306 18%% Breakdown by Density Type 100% 0% 0% 100% 62% 14% 23% 100% 64% 14% 22% 100%

Pending Draft Approval 0 0 0 0 0% 200 43 70 313 100% 200 43 70 313 18%% Breakdown by Density Type - - - - 64% 14% 22% 100% 64% 14% 22% 100%

OP Designated/Zoned 0 0 0 0 0% 92 20 32 144 100% 92 20 32 144 8%% Breakdown by Density Type - - - - 64% 14% 22% 100% 64% 14% 22% 100%

13 0 0 13 2% 475 105 170 750 98% 488 105 170 763 44%% Breakdown 100% 0% 0% 100% 63% 14% 23% 100% 64% 14% 22% 100%

Infill Potential 74 100 204 378 39% 354 146 86 586 61% 428 246 290 964 56%% Breakdown by Density Type 20% 26% 54% 100% 60% 25% 15% 100% 44% 26% 30% 100%

87 100 204 391 23% 829 251 256 1,336 77% 916 351 460 1,727% Breakdown by Density Type 22% 26% 52% 100% 62% 19% 19% 100% 53% 20% 27% 100%Source: Derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. based on housing supply data provided by the Municipality of North Grenville, December 2016.

Density Type Density TypePercentage

Allocation Stage of Development

Service Area 1 Service Area 2Stage of Development

Total Potential Housing Units in the Development Approvals Process + Intensification

Total Urban Housing Supply in the Development Approval Process

Density Type

Total Potential Housing Units in the Development Approvals Process

Page A-3



Residential Housing Supply by Stage of Development Approval in Rural Area

Total Housing Units

Registered Not Built 264% Breakdown by Stage of Development Approval 63%

Registration Pending 19% Breakdown by Stage of Development Approval 5%

Draft Plan Approved 36% Breakdown by Stage of Development Approval 9%

Pending Draft Approval 59% Breakdown by Stage of Development Approval 14%

OP Designated/Zoned 40% Breakdown by Stage of Development Approval 10%

418% Breakdown by Stage of Development Approval 100%


Potential Future Rural Housing Units


Stage of Development

Page A-4



Additional Future Potential Housing Units in Designated Greenfield Lands

Map I.D Geographic LocationLand Area (Gross ha)

Forecast Average Gross

Residential Density

Potential Future Housing Yield

38 Oxford 26 23 59835 Regional Phase 4 4 23 9237 Regional Phase 5 10 23 230

39/42 Sommerville 15 23 34541 Goldmenco 8 23 18446 Forbes 7 23 16153 Henderson 35 23 80521 Depencier North 4.8 23 110.451 Norenberg Residential 7.5 23 172.544 Storage Rentals- 503 James 1 23 23

30/31 Thompson 5 23 11550 Concession Development 2 23 4619 Miller 16 23 36847 Kemptville Hospital 0.5 80

141.8 3,330

Total Potential Future Housing Yield on Designated Greenfield Lands not in the

Development Approvals ProcessSource: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2017 derived from information provided by the Municipality of North Grenville.

Page A-5



Additional Future Potential Housing Units in Designated Greenfield Lands

Singles & Semi-


Singles & Semi-


Singles & Semi-


Singles & Semi-


Registered Not Built 13 0 0 13 183 42 68 293 264 0 0 264 460 42 68 570% Breakdown 100% 0% 0% 100% 62% 14% 23% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100% 81% 7% 12% 100%

Registration Pending 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 0 19 19 0 0 19% Breakdown - - - - - - - - 100% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100%

Draft Plan Approved 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 36 36 0 0 36% Breakdown - - - - - - - - 100% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100%

Pending Draft Approval 0 0 0 0 200 43 70 313 59 59 259 43 70 372% Breakdown - - - - 64% 14% 22% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100% 70% 12% 19% 100%

OP Designated/Zoned 0 0 0 0 92 20 32 144 40 40 132 20 32 184% Breakdown - - - - 64% 14% 22% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100% 72% 11% 17% 100%

13 0 0 13 475 105 170 750 418 0 0 418 906 105 170 1,181% Breakdown 100% 0% 0% 100% 63% 14% 23% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100% 77% 9% 14% 100%

Infill Potential 74 100 204 378 354 146 86 586 0 0 0 0 428 246 290 964% Breakdown 20% 26% 54% 100% 60% 25% 15% 100% - - - - 44% 26% 30% 100%

0 0 0 0 3,330 0 0 3,330 0 0 0 0 3,330 0 0 3,330% Breakdown - - - - 100% 0% 0% 100% - - - - 100% 0% 0% 100%

87 100 204 391 4,159 251 256 4,666 418 0 0 418 4,664 351 460 5,475% Breakdown 22% 26% 52% 100% 89% 5% 5% 100% 100% 0% 0% 100% 85% 6% 8% 100%Source: Derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. based on housing supply data provided by the Municipality of North Grenville, December 2016.

Stage of Development

Service Area 1 Service Area 2 Rural TotalDensity Type Density Type Density Type Density Type

Total Potential Housing Units in the Development Approvals Process + Intensification


Additional Future Potential Housing Units in Designated Greenfield Areas

Page A-6



Capacity Allocation Map

Page B-1


Appendix B – Supplementary Residential Growth Forecast Information

Page B-2


Appendix B-1 Municipality of North Grenville

Base Case Growth Forecast by Development Location

Singles & Semi-

Detached



2,900 3,000 880 150 200 50 1,280 2.273,300 3,400 1,020 150 220 50 1,440 2.293,500 3,500 1,040 170 270 50 1,530 2.293,500 3,600 1,050 190 300 50 1,590 2.203,600 3,700 1,070 200 320 50 1,640 2.20

400 500 130 0 20 0 150100 100 20 20 50 0 90200 200 40 40 80 0 160300 300 50 50 100 0 200

25% 25% 50% 0% 100%1. Census undercount estimated at approximately 2%. Note: Population including the undercount has been rounded.2. Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes.3. Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom+ apartments.

Singles & Semi-

Detached



1,400 1,400 410 110 40 0 560 2.501,700 1,800 510 140 100 0 750 2.272,500 2,600 680 220 190 0 1,090 2.293,500 3,600 950 290 270 0 1,510 2.324,100 4,200 1,110 330 310 0 1,750 2.34

400 400 100 30 60 0 190800 800 170 80 90 0 340

1,800 1,900 440 150 170 0 7602,400 2,500 600 190 210 0 1,000


Municipality of North Grenville Service Area 1 Growth Forecast

Forecast Period


Census Undercount)


Undercount)¹

Households

Mid 2011Mid 2016Mid 2021Mid 2026Mid 2031

Incremental GrowthMid 2011 - Mid 2016Mid 2016 - Mid 2021Mid 2016 - Mid 2026Mid 2016 - Mid 2031

Mid 2016 - Mid 2031


Forecast Period


Census Undercount)


Undercount)¹

Households



Mid 2016 - Mid 2031

Housing Forecast by Structure Type


Page B-3


Singles & Semi-

Detached



10,800 11,100 3,860 0 0 0 3,860 2.8011,400 11,700 4,250 0 0 0 4,250 2.6811,300 11,600 4,290 0 0 0 4,290 2.6311,200 11,500 4,320 0 0 0 4,320 2.5911,200 11,400 4,350 0 0 0 4,350 2.57

600 600 400 0 0 0 400-100 -100 30 0 0 0 30-200 -200 60 0 0 0 60-200 -300 100 0 0 0 100


Singles & Semi-

Detached



15,100 15,500 5,150 260 240 50 5,700 2.6516,400 16,900 5,780 290 320 50 6,440 2.5517,300 17,700 6,010 390 460 50 6,910 2.5018,200 18,700 6,320 480 570 50 7,420 2.4518,900 19,300 6,530 530 630 50 7,740 2.44

1,300 1,400 630 30 80 0 740900 800 230 100 140 0 470

1,800 1,800 540 190 250 0 9802,500 2,400 750 240 310 0 1,300


Municipality of North Grenville Rural Area Growth Forecast

Forecast Period


Census Undercount)


Undercount)¹

Households

Mid 2021Mid 2026Mid 2031





Housing Forecast by Structure TypeMid 2016 - Mid 2031

Mid 2016 - Mid 2031



Census Undercount)


Undercount)¹

Housing Units

Mid 2011Mid 2016

Page B-4



Alternative Growth Forecast by Development Location

Singles & Semi-

Detached


HouseholdsPersons Per Unit (PPU)

2,900 3,000 880 150 200 50 1,280 2.273,300 3,400 1,020 150 220 50 1,440 2.293,500 3,500 1,040 170 270 50 1,530 2.293,500 3,600 1,050 190 300 50 1,590 2.203,700 3,800 1,070 200 320 50 1,640 2.26

400 500 130 0 20 0 150100 100 20 20 50 0 90200 200 40 40 80 0 160400 400 50 50 100 0 200


Singles & Semi-

Detached



1,400 1,400 410 110 40 0 560 2.501,700 1,800 510 140 100 0 750 2.272,500 2,500 660 220 200 0 1,080 2.313,400 3,500 910 290 270 0 1,470 2.314,200 4,300 1,110 330 310 0 1,750 2.40

400 400 100 30 60 0 190700 800 150 80 100 0 330

1,700 1,700 400 150 170 0 7202,500 2,500 600 190 210 0 1,000



Forecast Period


Census Undercount)


Undercount)¹

Households



Mid 2016 - Mid 2031


Forecast Period


Census Undercount)


Undercount)¹

Households



Mid 2016 - Mid 2031



Page B-5


Singles & Semi-

Detached



10,800 11,100 3,860 0 0 0 3,860 2.8011,400 11,700 4,250 0 0 0 4,250 2.6811,500 11,800 4,370 0 0 0 4,370 2.6312,000 12,300 4,590 0 0 0 4,590 2.6112,700 13,000 4,760 0 0 0 4,760 2.67

600 600 400 0 0 0 400100 100 120 0 0 0 120600 600 330 0 0 0 330

1,300 1,300 510 0 0 0 510


Singles & Semi-

Detached



15,100 15,500 5,150 260 240 50 5,700 2.6516,400 16,900 5,780 290 320 50 6,440 2.5517,500 17,800 6,070 390 470 50 6,980 2.5118,900 19,400 6,550 480 570 50 7,650 2.4720,600 21,100 6,940 530 630 50 8,150 2.53

1,300 1,400 630 30 80 0 7401,100 900 290 100 150 0 5402,500 2,500 770 190 250 0 1,2104,200 4,200 1,160 240 310 0 1,710


Municipality of North Grenville Rural Area Growth Forecast

Forecast Period


Census Undercount)


Undercount)¹

Households

Mid 2021Mid 2026Mid 2031





Housing Forecast by Structure TypeMid 2016 - Mid 2031

Mid 2016 - Mid 2031



Census Undercount)


Undercount)¹

Housing Units

Mid 2011Mid 2016

Page B-6



Population Forecast Comparison

13,90014,500

15,500

17,700

18,70019,300

16,900

17,900

19,400

21,100

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion



Page C-1


Appendix C – Supplementary Employment Growth Forecast Information

Page C-2


Appendix C-1 Municipality of North Grenville

Base Case Employment Forecast

Employment

`

Mid 2001 13,581 0.011 0.050 0.044 0.102 0.078 0.286 0.031 0.317 155 685 601 1,386 1,055 3,881 425 4,306 3,196

Mid 2006 14,198 0.006 0.048 0.039 0.116 0.076 0.284 0.034 0.318 80 680 548 1,643 1,085 4,036 484 4,520 3,356

Mid 2011 15,085 0.010 0.043 0.041 0.141 0.069 0.304 0.046 0.349 145 645 623 2,133 1,035 4,580 690 5,270 3,935

Mid 2016 16,451 0.009 0.042 0.036 0.158 0.063 0.308 0.046 0.353 140 690 600 2,600 1,030 5,060 687 5,747 4,370

Mid 2021 17,260 0.008 0.039 0.041 0.139 0.063 0.291 0.041 0.332 145 681 703 2,402 1,089 5,020 710 5,730 4,339

Mid 2026 18,249 0.008 0.038 0.035 0.133 0.060 0.274 0.039 0.313 145 685 638 2,432 1,095 4,995 715 5,710 4,310

Mid 2031 18,880 0.008 0.036 0.030 0.130 0.058 0.263 0.038 0.301 145 689 573 2,462 1,101 4,970 720 5,690 4,281

Mid 2001 - Mid 2006 617 -0.006 -0.003 -0.006 0.014 -0.001 -0.002 0.003 0.001 -75 -5 -53 258 30 155 59 214 160

Mid 2006 - Mid 2011 887 0.0040 -0.0051 0.0027 0.0256 -0.0078 0.0193 0.0117 0.0310 65 -35 75 490 -50 544 206 750 579

Mid 2011 - Mid 2016 1,366 -0.0011 -0.0008 -0.0048 0.0167 -0.0060 0.0040 0.0000 0.0040 -5 45 -23 468 -5 480 -3 477 435

Mid 2016 - Mid 2021 809 -0.0001 -0.0025 0.0043 -0.0189 0.0005 -0.0168 -0.0046 -0.0214 5 -9 103 -198 59 -40 23 -17 -31

Mid 2016 - Mid 2026 1,798 -0.0006 -0.0045 -0.0015 -0.0248 -0.0026 -0.0339 -0.0066 -0.0405 5 -5 38 -168 65 -65 28 -37 -60

Mid 2016 - Mid 2031 2,429 -0.0008 -0.0055 -0.0061 -0.0276 -0.0043 -0.0444 -0.0076 -0.0520 5 -1 -27 -138 71 -90 33 -57 -89

Mid 2001 - Mid 2006 123 -0.00116 -0.00051 -0.00112 0.00274 -0.00025 -0.00030 0.00056 0.00026 -15 -1 -11 52 6 31 12 43 32

Mid 2006 - Mid 2011 177 0.0008 -0.0010 0.0005 0.0051 -0.0016 0.0039 0.0023 0.0062 13 -7 15 98 -10 109 41 150 116

Mid 2011 - Mid 2016 273 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0010 0.0033 -0.0012 0.0008 0.0000 0.0008 -1 9 -5 94 -1 96 -1 95 87

Mid 2016 - Mid 2021 162 -0.00002 -0.00051 0.00085 -0.00378 0.00010 -0.00336 -0.00092 -0.00428 1 -2 21 -40 12 -8 5 -3 -6

Mid 2016 - Mid 2026 180 -0.00006 -0.00045 -0.00015 -0.00248 -0.00026 -0.00339 -0.00066 -0.00405 1 -1 4 -17 7 -7 3 -4 -6

Mid 2016 - Mid 2031 162 -0.00006 -0.00037 -0.00041 -0.00184 -0.00029 -0.00296 -0.00051 -0.00347 0 0 -2 -9 5 -6 2 -4 -6

1. Population excludes undercount of approximately 2%. 2. Statistics Canada defines no fixed place of work (NFPOW) employees as "persons who do not go from home to the same work place location at the beginning of each shift." Such persons include building and landscape contractors, travelling salespersons, independent truck drivers, etc.

Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2006 and 2011. 2011-2016 estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2021-2031 base case forecast is based on the Leeds Grenville Official Plan Growth & Settlement Analysis prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd., August 6, 2014.

Total (Excluding NFPOW and

Work at Home)

Incremental Change

Commercial/ Population

RelatedInstitutional Total NFPOW1

Total Including NFPOW

Annual Average

NFPOW 2Total

Employment (Including NFPOW)

Primary Work at Home Industrial


RelatedInstitutional TotalIndustrialPeriod Population1

Activity Rate Employment

Primary Work at Home

Page C-3



Alternative Employment Forecast

Employment

`

Mid 2001 13,581 0.011 0.050 0.044 0.102 0.078 0.286 0.031 0.317 155 685 601 1,386 1,055 3,881 425 4,306 3,196

Mid 2006 14,198 0.006 0.048 0.039 0.116 0.076 0.284 0.034 0.318 80 680 548 1,643 1,085 4,036 484 4,520 3,356

Mid 2011 15,085 0.010 0.043 0.041 0.141 0.069 0.304 0.046 0.349 145 645 623 2,133 1,035 4,580 690 5,270 3,935

Mid 2016 16,451 0.009 0.042 0.036 0.158 0.063 0.308 0.046 0.353 140 690 600 2,600 1,030 5,060 687 5,747 4,370

Mid 2021 17,444 0.008 0.041 0.036 0.154 0.061 0.299 0.043 0.341 135 709 625 2,683 1,056 5,208 742 5,950 4,499

Mid 2026 18,906 0.007 0.040 0.034 0.151 0.059 0.291 0.041 0.331 130 749 650 2,852 1,116 5,497 766 6,263 4,748

Mid 2031 20,560 0.006 0.039 0.033 0.148 0.058 0.283 0.039 0.322 125 793 675 3,041 1,183 5,817 812 6,629 5,024

Mid 2001 - Mid 2006 617 -0.006 -0.003 -0.006 0.014 -0.001 -0.002 0.003 0.001 -75 -5 -53 258 30 155 59 214 160

Mid 2006 - Mid 2011 887 0.0040 -0.0051 0.0027 0.0256 -0.0078 0.0193 0.0117 0.0310 65 -35 75 490 -50 544 206 750 579

Mid 2011 - Mid 2016 1,366 -0.0011 -0.0008 -0.0048 0.0167 -0.0060 0.0040 0.0000 0.0040 -5 45 -23 468 -5 480 -3 477 435

Mid 2016 - Mid 2021 993 -0.0008 -0.0014 -0.0006 -0.0042 -0.0021 -0.0091 -0.0032 -0.0123 -5 19 25 83 26 148 55 203 129

Mid 2016 - Mid 2026 2,455 -0.0016 -0.0024 -0.0021 -0.0072 -0.0036 -0.0169 -0.0052 -0.0221 -10 59 50 252 86 437 79 516 378

Mid 2016 - Mid 2031 4,109 -0.0024 -0.0034 -0.0036 -0.0101 -0.0051 -0.0247 -0.0062 -0.0310 -15 103 75 441 153 757 125 882 654

Mid 2001 - Mid 2006 123 -0.00116 -0.00051 -0.00112 0.00274 -0.00025 -0.00030 0.00056 0.00026 -15 -1 -11 52 6 31 12 43 32

Mid 2006 - Mid 2011 177 0.0008 -0.0010 0.0005 0.0051 -0.0016 0.0039 0.0023 0.0062 13 -7 15 98 -10 109 41 150 116

Mid 2011 - Mid 2016 273 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0010 0.0033 -0.0012 0.0008 0.0000 0.0008 -1 9 -5 94 -1 96 -1 95 87

Mid 2016 - Mid 2021 199 -0.00015 -0.00027 -0.00013 -0.00085 -0.00041 -0.00182 -0.00064 -0.00246 -1 4 5 17 5 30 11 41 26

Mid 2016 - Mid 2026 246 -0.00016 -0.00024 -0.00021 -0.00072 -0.00036 -0.00169 -0.00052 -0.00221 -1 6 5 25 9 44 8 52 38

Mid 2016 - Mid 2031 274 -0.00016 -0.00023 -0.00024 -0.00068 -0.00034 -0.00165 -0.00042 -0.00206 -1 7 5 29 10 50 8 59 44

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2016.1. Population excludes undercount of approximately 2%. 2. Statistics Canada defines no fixed place of work (NFPOW) employees as "persons who do not go from home to the same work place location at the beginning of each shift." Such persons include building and landscape contractors, travelling salespersons, independent truck drivers, etc.

Total (Excluding

NFPOW and Work at Home)

Incremental Change

Period Population1

Activity Rate Employment

Primary Work at Home Institutional Total NFPOW1

Total Including NFPOW

Annual Average

NFPOW 2

Total Employment

(Including NFPOW)

Primary Work at Home Industrial


RelatedInstitutional TotalIndustrial


Related

Page C-4



Employment by Sector and Area, 2016 to Buildout

2006 0 130 44 1,050 718 1,942

2011 0 124 50 1,021 685 1,880

2016 0 140 48 996 682 1,866

Buildout 0 160 40 1,067 1,132 2,399 533

2006 0 61 225 462 318 1,066

2011 0 58 255 1,005 304 1,622

2016 0 72 246 1,510 302 2,130

Buildout 0 469 925 2,144 435 3,973 1,843

2006 80 489 279 131 49 1,028

2011 145 463 318 107 46 1,079

2016 140 478 306 94 46 1,064

Employment at Urban Buildout 125 490 249 80 45 989 -75

2006 80 680 548 1,643 1,085 4,036

2011 145 645 623 2,133 1,035 4,581

2016 140 690 600 2,600 1,030 5,060

Buildout 125 1,080 1,214 3,291 1,612 7,322 2,262

Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2006 and 2011. 2016 estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Buildout based on available land supply in urban area.


Service Area 1

Service Area 2

Rural

Development Location Period Primary Work at Home Industrial Commercial Institutional Total Employment

2016 to Buildout

Page C-5



Urban Employment Land Supply and Buildout on Employment Lands

Developed (ha) Employees

Average Density (Jobs/Net ha)

(excluding underutilized)

Underutilized (ha)

Serviced/ Serviceable Land (ha)

Available Underutilized

(ha)

Total Serviced/ Serviceable (ha)

and Available Underutilized (ha)

Remaining Designated

(ha) Unserviced

Density Assumption

(employees/net ha)

Estimated Employees

41 962 27 38 29 18 48 37 21 989 1,951

Industrial 27 263 17 38 22 18 40 15 605 868

Institutional 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

Commercial (retail/office) 11 696 51 0 7 0 7 52 384 1,080

60 1,185 36 0 5 0 5 3 40 182 1,367

Industrial 13 21 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 21

Institutional 13 282 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 282

Commercial (retail/office) 35 882 38 0 5 0 5 40 182 1,064

11 23 10 0 0.9 0 0.9 0 10 9 32

112 2,170 30 38 35 18 53 40 22 1,180 3,350


1. Site type reflects developed use, whereas vacant site by type is based on active site plans, development patterns and current zoning.

Total Employees

(New & Existing) at

Buildout (Serviced)

Total

Economic Enterprise Zone (Mixed-Use)

Estimated New Employee Yield on Vacant Serviced/ Serviceable Lands

Site Type 1

Designation

Site Type 1

Highway Commercial

Developed (ha) Net Vacant (ha)

Industrial

Page C-6



Base Case Employment Forecast Scenario

2006 0 130 44 1,050 718 1,9422011 0 124 50 1,021 685 1,880 -622016 0 140 48 996 682 1,866 -142021 0 136 51 879 723 1,789 -772026 0 134 44 910 756 1,843 542031 0 131 34 935 762 1,862 19

2011-2031 0 7 -16 -86 77 -182016-2031 0 -9 -14 -61 80 -4

2006 0 61 225 462 318 1,0662011 0 58 255 1,005 304 1,622 5562016 0 72 246 1,510 302 2,130 5082021 0 90 326 1,447 320 2,183 532026 0 122 319 1,450 295 2,186 32031 0 150 310 1,462 297 2,219 34

2011-2031 0 92 55 457 -7 5972016-2031 0 78 64 -48 -5 89

2006 80 489 279 131 49 1,0282011 145 463 318 107 46 1,079 512016 140 478 306 94 46 1,064 -152021 145 454 326 76 46 1,048 -162026 145 430 275 72 44 966 -822031 145 407 229 65 42 888 -78

2011-2031 0 -56 -89 -42 -4 -1912016-2031 5 -71 -77 -29 -4 -176

2006 80 680 548 1,643 1,085 4,0362011 145 645 623 2,133 1,035 4,581 5452016 140 690 600 2,600 1,030 5,060 4792021 145 681 703 2,402 1,089 5,020 -402026 145 685 638 2,432 1,095 4,995 -252031 145 689 573 2,462 1,101 4,970 -25

2011-2031 0 44 -50 329 66 3892016-2031 5 -1 -27 -138 71 -90

Service Area 1

Development Location Period Primary Work at Home Industrial Commercial Institutional Total Employment

5-Year Incremental

Growth

Service Area 2

Rural


Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2006 and 2011. 2011-2016 estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2021-2031 base case forecast is based on the Leeds Grenville Official Plan Growth & Settlement Analysis prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd., August 6, 2014.

Notes: Excludes No Fixed Place of Work.

Page C-7



Alternative Employment Forecast Scenario

2006 0 130 44 1,050 718 1,942

2011 0 124 50 1,021 685 1,880 -62

2016 0 140 48 996 682 1,866 -14

2021 0 142 45 982 701 1,870 4

2026 0 146 45 1,067 770 2,028 158

2031 0 151 40 1,155 819 2,165 137

2011-2031 0 27 -10 134 134 285

2016-2031 0 11 -8 159 137 299

2006 0 61 225 462 318 1,066

2011 0 58 255 1,005 304 1,622 556

2016 0 72 246 1,510 302 2,130 508

2021 0 94 290 1,616 310 2,310 180

2026 0 133 325 1,700 301 2,459 149

2031 0 173 365 1,806 319 2,663 204

2011-2031 0 115 110 801 15 1,041

2016-2031 0 101 119 296 17 533

2006 80 489 279 131 49 1,028

2011 145 463 318 107 46 1,079 51

2016 140 478 306 94 46 1,064 -15

2021 135 473 290 85 45 1,028 -36

2026 130 470 280 85 45 1,010 -18

2031 125 469 270 80 45 989 -21

2011-2031 -20 6 -48 -27 -1 -90

2016-2031 -15 -9 -36 -14 -1 -75

2006 80 680 548 1,643 1,085 4,036

2011 145 645 623 2,133 1,035 4,581 545

2016 140 690 600 2,600 1,030 5,060 479

2021 135 709 625 2,683 1,056 5,208 148

2026 130 749 650 2,852 1,116 5,497 289

2031 125 793 675 3,041 1,183 5,817 320

2011-2031 -20 148 52 908 148 1,236

2016-2031 -15 103 75 441 153 757

Commercial Institutional Total Employment

5-Year Incremental

Growth

Service Area 1

Service Area 2

Rural

Development Location Period Primary Work at Home Industrial

Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2006 and 2011. 2016 estimate and 2021-2031 forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.Note: Excludes No Fixed Place of Work.


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