MURDERS PER 100,000 PERSONS: UNITED STATES

‘50 ‘60 ‘65 ‘70 ‘75 ‘80 ‘85 ‘87 ’95 ‘96

TOTALPOP

5.2 4.7 5.5 8.3 10.0 10.7 8.3 8.7 8.0 7.2

WHITEMALES

3.8 3.6 4.4 6.7 9.1 10.9 8.2 7.5

WHITEFEM’S

1.4 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.2 2.9 3.0

BLACKMALES

47.3 36.6 - 67.6 62.6 66.6 48.4 53.3

BLACKFEM’S

11.5 10.4 - 13.3 13.8 13.5 11.0 12.6

96 data NY Times, July 26, 1998

# OF MURDERS, NEW YORK CITY

0

500

1000

1500

2000

250019

46

1956

1967

1968

1990

1991

1993

1996

1997

1998

MURDERS

Estimate based on 6 months

DECLINING MURDERS, NYC & LA(city)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1991 1993 1996 1997 1998

MURDERS:NYCMURDERS:LA(city)

NYC pop=7.3m

LA City pop= 3.5m (1990)

WHO DID IT? AND MANY OTHER QUESTIONS

MURDER RATE (PER 100,000) BY REGION

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

NORTHEAST MIDWEST WEST SOUTH

NORTHEASTMIDWESTWESTSOUTH

MURDER RATE (PER 100,000) BY REGION AND CITY

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14N

OR

TH

EA

ST

MID

WE

ST

WE

ST

SO

UT

H

US

A

NY

C(1

996)

NY

C (

1998

)

NORTHEAST

MIDWEST

WEST

SOUTH

USA

NYC(1996)

NYC (1998)

Elijah Anderson “The Code of the Streets.” TWO ORIENTATIONS AMONG GHETTO

POOR 1. “DECENT”--INVOLVES FAMILIES

COMMITTED TO MIDDLE CLASS VALUES

2. “THE STREETS”--AN OPPOSITIONAL CULTURE WITH ITS RULES--”CODE OF THE STREETS”

A CULTURAL ADAPATATION TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE POLICE/JUDICIAL SYSTEM

Components of the “culture of the streets” RESPECT/ DO NOT BE “DISSD” POSSESSIONS--JACKETS SNEAKERS DEMEANOR OF VIOLENCE

“We’ll remember you always, Tony.” Mott Haven, South Bronx, 1991

MERCER SULLIVAN

Minority adolescents, especially involved in drugs, disproportionately likely to commit crimes.

Crack is distributed by young people who are heavily armed--territory wars

MERCER SULLIVAN

White collar crime Arson rates vary inversely with real estate

values--landlords hire people to burn down their buildings when they can make more money from insurance than from selling

EXPLANATIONS OF DECLINE IN MURDERS IN NEW YORK CITY/NATION 1. New York police work/”broken window”

theory

EXPLANATIONS OF DECLINE IN MURDERS IN NEW YORK CITY/NATION

Police strategy # 5 : Going after squeegee men, boom boxes,

reckless bycyclists, panhandlers, drunks. Then checking id’s, police records,

searching for weapons.

Problems with New York police work/”broken window” theory

Decline in National and New York murder rate starts before 1993, when Bratton instituted his program

2. Demographics--decline in size of New York’s teenage population

But it hasn’t really declined, and certainly not fast enough to explain the drop in murders

3. Decline in crack epidemic 4. Tipping Theory