mv sept 2002 ant consumer model using netlogo collective information pheromones with evaporation...

MV Sept 2002

Ant Consumer ModelAnt Consumer Model Using NetLogo

Collective informationPheromones with evaporation & diffusion

Ant/Agent internal state Current direction Have food?

Three rules of actionCarry food to nestDrop food and turnSearch for food




Productive collective “Salaried men”Individual/Innovator Collective structure


NestNest Food supplyFood supply

Norman L. [email protected]://CollectiveScience.com

Jen [email protected]://public.lanl.gov/jhwpublic.lanl.gov/jhw

Strategies in Ecological SystemsStrategies in Ecological Systems

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

MV Sept 2002

What’s different Between Ecologies & Human What’s different Between Ecologies & Human systems? systems?

Mass communicationMass communication– Greater and tighter coupling between different Greater and tighter coupling between different

“ecosystems”“ecosystems” Speeding up of processesSpeeding up of processes

– Change happens faster and fasterChange happens faster and faster

Diversity 2007

Buckley: Competitive Strategies in ecosystems



Diversity 2007






Before After no otters

Diversity 2007




Diversity 2007


Ecosystems are complex and difficult to anticipate

Optimal competitive strategy depends on context– Early in “development”, important to out reproduce (not

about fitness alone)– Later in development, few offspring of high fitness best

Diversity (including strategies) contributes to resilience

Intermediate divergence principle Diversity peaks at moderate disturbances Diversity also increased in long established species

Australian aboriginals have the greatest diversity

Diversity 2007

Buckley: Questions and Observations

What about diseases within ecosystems? (host-pathogen)

What is the right amount of disturbance?

Do you use agent-based models?

What’s the means for creating disturbances?

What are the different strategies?

– Ultimately: create more strategies for resilience

How can we know we have sufficient diversity?

– Follow up from Michael’s diversity talk

Do you use scenarios in your research?

Observe: Professionalism is systematic way to reduce diversity and survivability

MV Sept 2002

Lamarckian Evolution (experience is heritable )

A crisis being caused by timings of evolution based on DNA

What are the “experts” saying?What are the “experts” saying?

MV Sept 2002

Most ants foraging for food find the shortest path.Most ants foraging for food find the shortest path.

Nest

Food

Nest

Food

(Goss, et al. 1989)

•Individuals are “dumb,” chaotic, Individuals are “dumb,” chaotic,

no global perspectiveno global perspective

•No leaders or central coordinationNo leaders or central coordination

•Only works for groups of Only works for groups of diversediverse

antsants

Ants Solving “HARD” problemsAnts Solving “HARD” problems

“Normal” Technology Development Phases

How to organize a movement, that changes/coordinates 100s of organizations and impacts 700,000 physicians? How do you then build processes that support new “utility”? How do new structures then become “transparent” and the building blocks of new options and structures?

MV Sept 2002

A single stationary source of infinite supplyA single stationary source of infinite supply










MV Sept 2002

Define three “production” stagesDefine three “production” stages

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Fractions (dimensionless)

Time (time units)

Fraction of

population in collective

Structural efficiency

Fraction of production

by collective

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Total food (food units) orCollective age (time units)

Collective age

Total Food

Condensed

Co-Operational

Formative

Time

MV Sept 2002

Three Performance StagesThree Performance Stages

Synergy of IndividualsSynergistic

System optimizationOptimized

Forming structureFormative

Locally chaotic (agent’s path)Globally chaotic (productivity)Low and evolving “structure” – no

collective networkPerformance due to uncorrelated

diverse contributionsProduction by “innovative” agents

Growing diversity

Locally chaoticGlobally predictableAdaptive “structure” – robust

collective networkPerformance from combination of

diverse contributionsProduction by both classes High diversity of options

Locally predictableGlobally predictable Unchanging “structure” –

dominant collective networkPerformance due to optimized

population Production by collective

Low diversity of options

Connecting the stages by structure for decentralized, self-organizing collectives

Structure(the rules

required to “run” the system)

time

Structure declines because the number of new rules are limited by past rules.

Structure increases first by components developing structure

Structure increases rapidly as components build structure together

Options around Structure also change

Structure(the rules


time

Because there is little initial structure, there are few options (“tall giraffes need tall trees”)

Options are greatest when structure connects the components

These ideas are captured by researchers studying “infodynamics”

Options are the free choices both created and limited by the structure (example: the rules of chess create an “environment” where many options are possible- while also limiting what choices are available)

Options

Options are reduced as more and more structure restricts all options

Options

Effect of Complexity in Stable Systems

Structure(the rules


time

Options

System goes to optimization via“expert” route

“Complexity Barrier” requires

Collective Solutions

X

System goes to optimization via

“collective” route

MV Sept 2002

Ant Consumer ModelAnt Consumer Model Using NetLogo










MV Sept 2002

The “Herd” Effect and Rapid ChangeThe “Herd” Effect and Rapid Change

Add some food to an existing solution

Add some food to an existing solution

The prior “optimized” solution prevents the system from further optimization

The prior “optimized” solution prevents the system from further optimization

Worse for systems with that internalize optimal solutions.

Worse for systems with that internalize optimal solutions.

MV Sept 2002

Quantified Environmental ChangeQuantified Environmental Change

Moves at afixed radius and

constant angular velocity

MV Sept 2002

Slowly changing environmentSlowly changing environment

Productivity is only slightly less than an unchanging source

Productivity is only slightly less than an unchanging source

Herd effect allows for quick utilization of new resource location

Herd effect allows for quick utilization of new resource location

Innovators become important (again) by sustaining optimal performance of the collective

Innovators become important (again) by sustaining optimal performance of the collective

MV Sept 2002

Total Food ProductionTotal Food Production

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Rate of environmental change (tenth of degree/time unit)

Production rate (food units/time units)

Collective

Individual

Formative

Co-Operational

Condensed

MV Sept 2002

Faster by 1/2Faster by 1/2

Boom and bust cycleBoom and bust cycle

Equal importance of herd effect and innovators

Equal importance of herd effect and innovators

Instabilities lead to reversion to prior developmental stages.

Instabilities lead to reversion to prior developmental stages.

MV Sept 2002


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8



Collective

Individual

Formative

Co-Operational

Condensed

Production can be increased 40% by doubling the evaporation rate

MV Sept 2002

Rapidly changing in environmentRapidly changing in environment

Almost all productivity is from innovators

Almost all productivity is from innovators

The herd effect can actually degrade the performance by tying up resources

The herd effect can actually degrade the performance by tying up resources

The highly productive Condensed stage is never realized

The highly productive Condensed stage is never realized

MV Sept 2002


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8



Collective

Individual

Formative

Co-Operational

CondensedOptimized

Synergistic

MV Sept 2002

Structural Efficiency - Boom and BustStructural Efficiency - Boom and Bust

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Rate = 0.3


-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000


Time (time unit)

Rate = 0.0

Rate = 0.8

Lower average production -> crash avoidance

Lower average production -> crash avoidance

Bust is proceeded by increased production

Bust is proceeded by increased production

Greater minimums and maximum when compared to extreme rates!

Greater minimums and maximum when compared to extreme rates!

MV Sept 2002

Collective efficacyCollective efficacy (structural efficiency) (structural efficiency)

MV Sept 2002

Coefficient of Variability (mean / s.d.)Coefficient of Variability (mean / s.d.)

MV Sept 2002

Collective Response to Environmental ChangeCollective Response to Environmental Change

Unimpeded development

Innovators are essential

Collective actions lead to inefficiencies

Potential system-wide

failure

OptimizedOptimized (optimization of (optimization of

collective)collective)

Synergistic (synergism from

individuals)

FormativeFormative (creation of (creation of

individual features)individual features)

Featureless

StableStable““no change”no change”

Change slower Change slower than collective than collective

responseresponse

Change faster Change faster than collective than collective

responseresponse

Change faster Change faster than individual than individual

responseresponse

Rate of Environmental Change

Sta

ges

in

Dev

elo

pm

ent

MV Sept 2002

The Structure of The Structure of StructuresStructures

Description Determinesevolutionarypath directly

Retainedonce

expressed

Alwaysexpressed

Origins:Random,

Direct,Emergent

Experiential or transient featuresLearning – Ant position

R

Shallow surface featuresColoring – Collective solution

X R

Deep surface structures (frozen ``accidents’’)Specific DNA coding

X X D,E,R

Deep system structures (frozen organization)Digital coding, nucleus formation

X X X D,E

Features reflecting fundamental lawsHydrogen bonding

X X X D

Structures direct the evolution of the system by creating and limiting potential options

MV Sept 2002

To

tal

pro

du

ctio

n (

units

of f

ood)

Time (time units)

For the slowest rate of change

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

transient structure

sustained structure

Combination of Sustained Structure and Change

How does the retention of structure change the collective response?

Suggests that fixed evolutionary adaptations lead to inefficiencies in the presence of even small rates of change

What would be the effect of a faster ant?

What would be the effect of mass communication?

See “Creative Destruction” by Foster

MV Sept 2002

Prediction: Prediction: Speed up by 10 times & change distanceSpeed up by 10 times & change distance

Almost as productive at stationary source!

Almost as productive at stationary source!

MV Sept 2002

At a later time…At a later time…

Exploits natural resonance of collective

Exploits natural resonance of collective

MV Sept 2002

Optimality of a Dynamical EnvironmentOptimality of a Dynamical Environment

Individual production rates highest

Production rates a high as a stable state

Structural efficiencyalso high

Extreme rates

MV Sept 2002

Conclusions about Collectives and Change Conclusions about Collectives and Change

Consider both competitive and synergistic strategiesConsider both competitive and synergistic strategies ““Busts” are worse than lower average performanceBusts” are worse than lower average performance Different types of structures have different reproducibilityDifferent types of structures have different reproducibility How to evolve an overly-constrained system?How to evolve an overly-constrained system?

– Either “creatively destroy” structure or build on structureEither “creatively destroy” structure or build on structure– Seek diverse strategiesSeek diverse strategies– Focus on process, instead of product (KISS)Focus on process, instead of product (KISS)– Emergent solutions can’t be planned but can be enabled by diversityEmergent solutions can’t be planned but can be enabled by diversity

Optimize structure (rules) and options based on:Optimize structure (rules) and options based on:– Required performance and robustnessRequired performance and robustness– Stage of developmentStage of development– Rate of change (internally or externally)Rate of change (internally or externally)

Use stages of development as guidepostsUse stages of development as guideposts– FormativeFormative: lots of building of structure, fragile: lots of building of structure, fragile– SynergisticSynergistic: sweet spot for resilience and change: sweet spot for resilience and change– OptimizedOptimized: only for slowly changing or stable environments: only for slowly changing or stable environments

MV Sept 2002

http://CollectiveScience.com

Rat Studies of Maximum Carrying Capacity

Social order system can carry 8 times the optimal capacity.

NIMH psychologist John B. Calhoun, 1971

Control - no imposed social structureCooperative social structure

Both systems loaded to 2 1/2 times the optimal capacity.

Environment (culture, economy, demography, technology, nature)

Network View of System of systems

Dynamics on the network performance - stability - resilience - transients

• Change of states• Creation/destruction of structure & options• Dynamics under stable conditions• Dynamics in response to change

Personal•Motivation•Sensory•…

Groups•Media•Organization•…


Regulations•Feds•Agencies•…



Social-organizational -information network

• Diversity • Connections• Strengths• Asymmetry• Change

Individual types •Peers•Bosses•Clients, …

Individual•Sensory•Memory•Motivation • …

MV Sept 2002

Levels of Social complexity

slime slime moldsmolds

““low” low” social social

insectsinsects

““high” high” social social

insectsinsects

social social mammalsmammals

““low” low” apesapes

““high” high” apesapes humanshumans

Social: diverse, decentralized, collective survival and problem solvingCollectively adaptable, self-organizing, emergent properties

IndividualSelf-awareness &

Consciousness

Collective memory, Intelligence, Deception

Individual intelligence & emotionsFrom a workshop on

“The Evolution of Social Behavior”

which covered a wide range of social organisms

From a workshop on “The Evolution of Social

Behavior” which covered a wide range

of social organisms

Diversity 2007

Cook County Hospital First blood bank Cobalt beam therapy First attachment of 4 severed fingers Inspired ER TV series Diagnosis of chest pain in ED (Goldman) -

funded by Navy => Heart attack decision tree How to catch the 10% actually having a heart attack?

Algorithm: 70% better at recognizing who’s not having an attack

Doctors: 75-89% correct on most serious patients

Algorithm: 95% correct on most serious patients

– Algorithm gives no consideration of diabetes, race, gender, age, prior

heart attack, diet, lifestyle. “this is nonsense”

What if a change happens?

mv sept 2002 ant consumer model using netlogo collective information pheromones with evaporation...

Documents

competitive strategies

different strategies

nestdrop food

rules of actioncarry

new structures

groups of diverse ants

dnamost ants

different ecosystemsspeeding