Power Sector Overview: Demand, Supply Options and

the Role of Renewable Energies

Nay Pyi Taw 1-11-2012

Kachin

Sagaing

Shan

Mandalay

Magway

Chin

Rakhaing

Bago Kayar

Yangon Ayeyarwaddy Kayin

Mon

Tanintharyi

Area of Country 261, 319 sq-mile

Population around 59.78 million The country consists of

States

(1) Kachin

(2) Kayah

(3) Kayin

(4) Chin

(5) Mon

(6) Rakhaing

(7) Shan

Regions

(1) Saggaing

(2) Tanintharyi

(3) Bago

(4) Magway

(5) Mandalay

(6) Yangon

(7) Ayeyarwaddy

Brief Introduction to The Republic of Union of Myanmar

2

After change in constitutional structure, Myanmar has been

awakening as a country with reforms not only in strategic

and tactic approaches, also the environmental and

technological issues included.

The power sector is playing critical role in the development

of the country.

Then, insufficient supply of electricity in the last summer

highlighted the needs of proper and concrete Power

Development Plan and also leads a change in Energy Policy.

Introduction

3

1. To employ the available energy resources in power generation for the

sufficient supply of electricity.

2. To promote the effective and efficient use of electricity for future

energy sufficiency, reserves and sustainability in our nation.

3. To conduct the reliable power quality to be supplied safely.

4. To enhance the electricity distribution system to be developed in

accordance with the advance technologies.

5. To adopt the environment-friendly ways in electricity generation,

transmission and distribution.

6. To encourage the expansion of power transmission and distribution

throughout the country and the Public-Private-Participation in each

sector.

4

Policies

1. In order to transmit the generated power, increased in the period of

fifth five-year plan, through Myanmar Power System to Regions

and States, the Transmission Lines and Primary Substations are to

be implemented and also the Distribution Plans for electricity supply

to the Industries and Public are to be worked out.

2. To provide the technical know-how and policy support to the local

people with their cooperation and participation in using alternative

energy such as bio-mass in rural areas, far from the National Grid.

3. To meet the electricity demand for the areas, where electricity

through the National Grid is not accessible, are to be supplied by

Mini Hydro and Diesel Generators.

5

Objectives

4. In order to be reliable the quality of Myanmar Power System which

is conducted for generation, transmission, distribution and

consumption of electric power and to supply the electricity with the

least of power interruption and loss at the Standard Voltage Level,

our skillful staffs shall carry out by getting technical know-how from

abroad.

5. To fulfill the power demand of Myanmar, not only Hydro Power

Generation and also Gas Turbine Power Plants are to be in

operation, and Wind Power and Solar Power Plants are

economically and widely constructed to reinforce the power supply.

6

Objectives(cond.)

Distribution

Generation

YESB (MOEP )

Transmission

End User

HPGE (MOEP )

MEPE (MOEP )

MEPE (MOEP ) ESE (MOEP )

JV/IPP

7

Hydro

Coal

Gas

Diesel

500 kV (future)

230 kV

132 kV

66 kV

33 kV

11 kV

0.4 kV

Electricity Supply to Consumer

Grid System Isolated Total(MW) (MW) (MW) (%)

Installed Capacity 3,494.90 100.08 3,594.98 100.00%Hydroelectric 2,660.00 33.34 2,693.34 74.92%Gas 714.90 - 714.90 19.89%Coal 120.00 - 120.00 3.34%Diesel - 63.02 63.02 1.75%Bio Mass - 3.72 3.72 0.10%

74.92%

19.89%

3.34% 1.75% 0.10%

Hydroelectric Gas Coal Diesel Bio Mass

8

Installed Capacity in 2012

Grid System Isolated Total(MWH) (MWH) (MWH) (%)

Generation Capacity 8,548.37 76.40 8,624.77 100.00%Hydroelectric 6,144.88 43.65 6,188.53 71.75%Gas/Steam 2,012.02 - 2,012.02 23.33%Coal 391.47 - 391.47 4.54%Diesel - 32.75 32.75 0.38%

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71.75%

23.33%

4.54% 0.38%

Hydroelectric Gas/Steam Coal Diesel

Generation Capacity in 2010-2011

Year

Generated Unit (GWh)

1988-89 2226.45

1992-93 3006-60

1996-97 4130.31

2000-01 5117.64

2004-05 5608.24

2008-09 6621.76

2011-12 10338.08

2226

1988

-89

1992

-93

1996

-97

2000

-01

2004

-05

2008

-09

2011

-12

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

GW

h

Yr

10338

10

Yearly Power Generation from (1988-89) to (2011-12)

Monthly Peak Generation growth (2006 ~ 2012) Peak Generation in May declines because of the low water level of reservoirs.

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900

1200

1500

1800Ap

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Monthly Peak Generation (MW)

Monthly Peak Generation (MW)

11

Monthly Peak Generation (MW)

Yearly Peak Generation Growth (2006 ~ 2012)

As New Large Power Plants have commissioned in 2011 then the peak generation

become 50 % higher than 2009

996 1004 10611129

1379

1588 1640

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Yearly Peak Generation (MW)

Yearly Peak Generation (MW)

12

Tigyit 120MW

Hydro Power Plant

Sr No.

Type of Power Plant

Number

Installed Capacity

(MW)

1. 2.

Hydro Power Gas & Steam

19 11

2660.0 834.9

Total 30 3494.9

Mone 75MW

Sedawgyi 25MW

Zawgyi-2 12MW

Zawgyi-1 18MW

Bluchaung-1 28MW

Paunglaung 280MW

Shwetaung 55.35MW

Yenwe 25MW

Zaungtu

20MW

Myanaung

34.7MW

Hlawga 154.2MW

Thaton 50.95MW

Mawlamyaing

12MW

Ahloneံ 154.2MW

Ywama 70.3MW

Yeywa 790MW

Khapaung

30MW

Shweli-1 600MW

KengTawng 54MW

Shwekyin

75MW

Kun 60MW

KyeeOhnKyeeWa 74MW

Tapein 240MWံ

Steam Power Plant

Gas Power Plant

13

Thaphanseik 30 MW

Kyunchaung 54.3 MW

Man 36.9 MW

Thaketa

92 MW

Kinda 56 MW

Bluchaung-2 168MW

Location of Existing Power Plants

Voltage (kV)

Nos. of Line

Length

miles km

230 46 1,922.68 3,095.52

132 42 1,412.33 2,273.85

66 138 2,247.75 3,618.87

Total 226 5,582.76 8,988.24

Existing Transmission Lines

Voltage (kV)

Nos. of Substation

Capacity (MVA)

230 30 3,760

132 25 1,322.5

66 130 1,975.5

Total 185 7,058.0

Existing Substations

14

National Grid System In our National Grid System, there are 30 Nos. of Generating Power

Stations, ie (19) Hydropower Station, (1) Coal Fire Power Plant, (10) Gas

Turbine (including 4 Combined Cycle in Yangon).

The major electric power stations feed electricity into the National Grid

System with 230 kV, 132 kV and 66 kV transmission lines and substations.

Voltage (kV)

Length Capacity

miles km (MVA)

33 4,446.91 7,115.06 3,865.64

11 7,990.39 12,784.62 3,805.68

6.6 869.28 1,390.85 1,465.44

Total 13,306.58 21,290.53 9,136.76

Existing Distribution Lines & Substations

15

Distribution System and Electrification Ratio

The National Grid System connect with the Distribution System via 33 kV,

11 kV and 6.6 kV distribution lines and substations.

Population 59.78 million

Numbers of Household 8.91 million

Electrified Household 2.39 million

Percentage 27 %

Electrification Ratio

GDP & Population Growth Rate of States and Divisions (Ref: Statistical Year Book – 2010)

National GDP Growth Rate: 11%

National Population Growth Rate: 1.2%

States GDP Population

Kachin 6.9 1.26

Kayah 6.2 1.44

Kayin 8.1 1.19

Chin 7.3 1.63

Mon 10.3 0.99

Rakhaing 12.6 1.07

Shan 8.8 1.16

Divisions GDP Population

Sagaing 7.3 0.95

Tanintharyi 7.7 1.34

Bago 11.1 1.07

Magway 6.2 1.05

Mandalay 10.3 1.08

Ayeyarwaddy 6.7 1.12

Yangon 16.2 1.15

16

• In 10 years period, from (2001-02) to (2011-12), the economy

of country reflected with the average GDP of 11%.

• The rate of change of Electricity Demand related to GDP is 1.4

times (Elasticity Factor).

• Electricity Demand was increased 2 times than that occurred

in past 10 years period.

GDP & Population Growth Rate of States and Divisions (Ref: Statistical Year Book – 2010)

17

The maximum demand growth rate is around 15% from 2010 to 2012. The

maximum demand forecasting of summer time for the year 2013 to 2016 are as

follows:

Sr

No Year Demand (MW) Increased

Percentage

1. 2010 1371 -

2. 2011 1588 15.8%

3. 2012 1850 16.49%

4. 2013 2128 15%

5. 2014 2447 15%

6. 2015 2814 15%

7. 2016 3236 15% 18

Short Term Demand Forecasting for (2010-2016)

Sr No.

Name of Power Plant Executing Agency

Total Installed Capacity

Commissioning step by step

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

1. Shweli-1 (purchasing No-4 machine)

JV 100 100 -

2. Shibwenge CPI 99 99 -

3. Phyuu MOEP 40 40 -

4. Thautyaekhaut-2 Golden Energy 120 120 -

5. Nancho MOEP 40 40 -

6. Bluchaung Future Energy 52 52 -

7. Upper Bluchaung New Energy Oasis

29 29 -

8. Upper Paunglaung MOEP 140 140 -

Total 620 199 252 169 - 19

MW

Under Construction Hydro Power Plants during Short Term Plan

Sr No.

Location Company Name

Installed

Capacity

(MW)

Project Commissioning

2013 2014 2015 2016

1. Hlawga

Hydro Lancang(China) 530 - 126 252 152

Zeya & Associates 50 50 - - -

2. Ywama

Myanshwepyi 50 50 - - -

EGATi (Thailand) 240 120 120 - -

3. Ahlone Toyo Thai (Thailand) 120 100 20 - -

4. Thaketa

Busan Korea Biotechnology Co., (Korea)

500 - 168 168 164

Consultant Int’l Co. 50 50 - - -

20

Under Construction Gas and Combined Cycle Power Plants from (2012-13) to (2015-2016)

Short Term Plan for Transmission Lines and Substations

Voltage (kV)

Number of Lines

Lines Length (mile)

500 2 263

230 29 2363

132 3 105

66 30 1343

33 - 1146

11 - 2951

0.4 - 1952

Total 64 10,123

Transmission Lines

Voltage (kV)

Number of

Substations

Installed Capacity

(MVA)

500 3 1500

230 26 2700

132 10 720

66 70 1162

33 148 979

11 2752 629

- - -

Total 3,009 7,690

Substations

21

Long Term Demand Forecasting

Project Term

Condition after Project Term

Expected

Population

(million)

Power Demand Expected Consumptio

n per one person (kWh)

Expected Consumptio

n per one household

(%)

(MW) (GWh)

Yr 2011-12 Existing Condition

60.44 1,806 10,444 173 27%

From Yr (2012-13) To Yr (2015-16)

63.14 3,078 17,797 282 34%

From Yr (2016-17) To Yr (2020-21)

66.69 5,686 32,874 493 45%

From Yr (2021-22)

70.45 10,400 60,132 854 60%

22

Electricity Demand Curve in MW (2012 ~ 2031) Growth rate of Population 1.1%, of GDP 10.5%, of Electricity 13%

2155

2426

2732

3078

3477

3929 44

42 5025 56

86 6416 72

44 8167 92

14 1040

0

1174

7

1327

4 1500

9 1697

8

1921

6

20003000400050006000700080009000

1000011000120001300014000150001600017000180001900020000

2012

…

2013

…

2014

…

2015

…

2016

…

2017

…

2018

…

2019

…

2020

…

2021

…

2022

…

2023

…

2024

…

2025

…

2026

…

2027

…

2028

…

2029

…

2030

…

Electricity Demand (MW)

23

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

2500020

16-1

7

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

2021

-22

2022

-23

2023

-24

2024

-25

2025

-26

2026

-27

2027

-28

2028

-29

2029

-30

2030

-31

2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216

4520 5108 5775 6532

7392 8341

9417 10617

11978 13521

15271

17257

19511

22072

24981

3477 3929 4442 5025 5686

6416 7244

8167 9214

10400 11747

13274

15009

16978

19216

Long Term Demand Forecasting and New Constructed Installed Capacity

Existing Installed Capacity

Reserve Capacity

Capacity to Expend

Required Capacity

MW

24

Long Term Plan to be Constructed Hydropower Plants

Sr No.

Power Plants Name

Constructed Company

Name

Total Installed Capacity

Projects Commissioning Step

2016-17

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

1. Ann MOEP 10 10

2. Thahtay MOEP 111 111

3. Upper Kengteng MOEP 51 51

4. Upper Yeywa MOEP 280 280

5. Shweli-3 MOEP 1050 1050

Total 1502 10 162 280 1050

25

Future Plan of Transmission Lines Future Plan of Substations

Voltage (kV)

Nos. of Line

Length

mile km

500 6 1,693.0 2724.04

230 80 5,894.0 9483.45

132 12 410.5 660.49

66 33 1,222.1 1966.36

Total 131 9,219.6 14,834.34

Voltage (kV)

Nos. of Substation

Capacity (MVA)

500 10 5,000

230 25 2,360

132 10 675

66 31 340

Total 76 8,375

26

Transmission Lines and Substation (Future Plan)

In order to reinforce the present National Grid System and to facilitate

power transmission from new generating stations to National Grid System,

Ministry of Electric Power has a long term plan of 131 Transmission Lines

and 76 Substations for future.

Renewable Energy Resources

Renewable Energy Resources

Biofuels

Geothermal

Hydro Solar

Wind

Tidal

Myanmar is situated in the south eastern part of the Asian continent. It enjoys abundant sun shine all year round, especially in the Central Myanmar Dry Zone Area. Similarly as in wind energy, to utilize solar as a substitute in place of conventional energy sources, more research and development work need to be carried out. The cooler, dry season lasts from November to April and the hotter, wet season from May to October. Sunshine is plentiful during the dry season average 7 to 10 hours a day. During the rainy season, the weather is cloudier and daily sunshine amounts is average only 3 to 4 hours a day.

Solar Energy

Wind Energy New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization(NEDO) of Japan performed in 1997 a study on renewable energy potential in GMS region and assessed that Myanmar has potentially available in Wind Energy. Promising areas to harness wind energy are in three regions, namely Hilly Regions of China and Shan states. Coastal regions in the south and western part of the country and central part of Myanmar. Use of wind energy is at the very initial stage. Due to the expensive initial cost, the utilization of wind energy needs to be implemented in cooperation with foreign participants under technology transfer and financial assistance program.

Hydro Energy Feasible Hydropower Project in Myanmar by Region Wise Sr. No. Region/State No. of Project Installed Capacity(MW)

1 Kachin 14 15959.50 2 Kayar 5 954.00 3 Kayin 9 6904.00 4 Chin 1 380.00 5 Sagaing 5 2432.00 6 Taninthari 6 711.00 7 Bago 8 558.00 8 Magwe 5 359.00 9 Mandalay 9 1475.00

10 Mon 2 290.00 11 Rakhine 6 871.00 12 Shan 16 12564.8

Total 86 43,458.30

Hydro Energy Feasible Hydropower Project in Myanmar by River Basin Wise Sr. No. Region/State No. of Project Installed Capacity(MW)

1 Ayeyarwaddy 29 18775.50 2 Chindwin 8 2997.00 3 Sittaung 11 1148.00 4 Thanlwin 21 17788.00 5 Mekong 3 867.80 6 Others 14 1882.00

Total 86 43,458.30

Estimated Hydropower Potential : more than 108,000 MW

Feasible Project : 43,458.30 MW

Geothermal Myanmar is one of the countries with abundant geothermal resources. A total of 93 geothermal locations have been identified throughout the country. Out of the 93 geothermal sites, 43 of them were investigations had been made.

Conclusion for Renewable Energy In the renewable energy sector, Myanmar has abundant renewable energy sources. However, they are at the initial stages due to an under- developed energy infrastructure such as institutional and legal frame- work, financial and human resource capacity constraint. In addition, they require substantial studies, research and experimental works need to be performed. The identified key issues in renewable energy develop- ment are as follows: • To have adequate information on each and every type of renewable energy sources of the country • To encourage more inter-ministries and inter-departmental interaction and cooperation • To promote private participation in the development program • To define and specify energy policy incorporating renewable energy

34